A PROMISING WEEKEND TO BE A TEDDY FOREVER

Macro Economic News 10 Feb 2018

 

The confidence in credibility of common considerations in economic and financial horizon has been cracking. As a consequence, the macroeconomic facts being observed are swaying significantly from general expectations. Assessment of impact is a trillion dollar question.

Some of the contradictions being observed - Fiscal extravaganza vs austerity, narrowing spending multiplier vs economy leverage, widening credit spread vs GDP growth, wealth erosion vs capital formation, wealth skew vs employment growth, quest of safe assets vs flow of money to market etc - are maneuvering market myths.

It may impact global economy with strong economic growth in short run, inflation and higher cost of resources (capital) in medium run and less resiliency of nation to combat unexpected financial crisis in long run. The key would be readiness and risk management.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump signs deficit-swelling budget deal

[I]  The dumb-bell economy: inside the booming business of exercise

[I]  India pressed to send in troops to resolve Maldives crisis

[I]  Barnier warns UK intransigence putting Brexit transition at risk

[I]  Wealthy Chinese push racing pigeon prices skywards

[I]  China asks Hong Kong to goose-step into line

[I]  EU to demand tough data-protection rules with future trade deals

[I]  US shutdown begins after single senator delays budget vote

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  White House Budget to Project 3% Growth

[I]  Spending Bill Overshadows Coming Trump Budget Plan

[I]  Why Workers Are Striking Less Than Ever

[I]  Canada Sheds 88,000 Jobs In January

[I]  Farm Belt Braces for Falling Incomes, Trade Disputes

[I]  Real Time Economics: Markets vs. the Economy | U.S. Budget Breakthrough | Companies See Signs of Inflation

[I]  Are Treasury and White House Statements Driving the Dollar Down? Economists Don’t Believe It Anymore

[I]  Forget the 4% Rule: Rethinking Common Retirement Beliefs

 

REUTERS

[I]  Bad loans hurt state banks, push SBI to surprise loss

[I]  Investors brace for more swings as U.S. inflation specter rises

[I]  Kuroda reappointment at BOJ seen as sign stimulus policy will go on

[I]  Bond vigilantes awaken counterparts in the stock market

[I]  India's January retail inflation seen easing only slightly, still above target: Reuters poll

[I]  Oil pipeline shutdown hits UK industry but manufacturing and construction grow

[I]  Analysis: How soaring U.S. oil exports to China are transforming the global oil game

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Junk-Bond Selling Accelerates at End of Jittery Week in Markets

[I]  Spending Plan Assumes U.S. Growth of 3% Over Decade

[I]  Senate Passes Delayed Budget Deal in Bid to End U.S. Shutdown

[I]  Asia Is America’s Biggest Crude Buyer

[I]  Jim Rogers Says Next Bear Market Will Be Worst in His Life

[I]  Germany Is Still Obsessed With Cash

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI can now go after even ‘small schemers’

[I]  NSE, BSE move to curb Nifty trading in Singapore, Sensex in Dubai

[I]  ‘Brain drain’ in Indian Railways as senior officers make track in other departments

[I]  US blocks India’s request for WTO compliance panel on solar dispute

[I]  It’s time we redefined contract labour

[I]  Palestinian cause and India’s balancing act

[I]  Higher import duty on olive oil will kill demand, fears trade association

[I]  New start-up hub to help women entrepreneurs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Auto Expo 2018: Entry-level cars and bikes missing; experts say market maturing

[I]  Lost your phone & worried about data theft? Govt is coming up with a solution soon

[I]  Aadhaar to be address, age proof for DL: Govt

[I]  Gross NPAs decline marginally to 9.8%: Govt

[I]  India's external debt at $495.7 billion, in manageable limits: Govt

[I]  Direct tax kitty grows 19% to Rs 6.95 lakh crore in April-January

[I]  RBI status quo on key rate indicates growth will pick up: Finance Ministry

[I]  SFIO lens on 81 firms for fraud in 10 months of this fiscal

[I]  PAN may soon become Aadhaar of your business

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  GST regime is not tax friendly, fix glitches on GSTN: Bombay HC raps govt

[I]  Centre drops proposal to relax retrenchment norms for industries

[I]  E-drive in India's two-wheeler market likely to hit capacity hurdle

[I]  Budget beyond taxes--it's time to focus on non-tax part of revenue

[I]  RBI conducts last bond auction before current financial year ends

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 Feb 2018

A CHOCOLATY DAY TO CARRY ON CHARACTER WITH CONTENTED CHOICE

Macro Economic News 09 Feb 2018

 

Aussie markets will get the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy, while the broader region will be keen to see if forecasters are right to have said Chinese annual CPI slowed last month. Tokyo will be sparing some attention for earnings from NTT and Mitsui Fudosan. We also get data on Philippines trade and Malaysian manufacturing. The European day will feature Dutch, Italian, U.K. and French manufacturing, Norwegian CPI and GDP, and a Russian central bank decision. In the U.S. session there's Canadian employment, U.S. wholesale inventories and Mexican industrial production. (Bloomberg)

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Bank of England looks at earlier and faster rate rises

[I]  European banks show signs of recovery

[I]  France warns of ‘red line’ over German-backed eurozone reform

[I]  France to increase military spending

[I]  Australia joins global push to cut corporate tax rates

[I]  Chinese M&A boom provides slim pickings for global law firms

[I]  China fines payments companies for cross-border forex breaches

[I]  The corporate debt problem refuses to recede

 

Wall Street Journal

[I]  Economists Stick With Optimistic U.S. Outlook Despite Market Turmoil

[I]  Economists, by Wide Margin, Support 2% Inflation Target

[I]  Real Time Economics: Budget Deal May Bring Back $1 Trillion Deficits | Easy Money Underlies Market Selloff | China Yuan Tumbles

[I]  Mexico’s Central Bank Lifts Rates to Nine-Year High

[I]  BOE Signals Faster Interest Rate Rises, Boosting Sterling

[I]  Fed’s Harker Says If Data Supports It, March Rate Rise Is Possible

[I]  On Trade, World Wonders Whose Rules U.S. Plays By

[I]  By Adding to the Debt, Tax Cuts Could Complicate Next Downturn

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S., China reaffirm commitment to pressure North Korea - State Dept

[I]  U.S. dismisses fears of wider war after deadly Syria clashes

[I]  Asia stocks pummeled by fresh Wall Street slide, safe havens in demand

[I]  Wall Street plummets; S&P, Dow confirm correction

[I]  Colombia, Brazil tighten borders as Venezuelan crisis deepens

[I]  Bank of Canada eyes overall economy, even as debt, NAFTA weigh: Wilkins

[I]  Banks set to raise lending rates, pre-empting RBI

[I]  British insurers see China, India as top non-EU markets after Brexit

[I]  S&P 500, Dow confirm correction as stocks sink again

[I]  Saudi Arabia temporarily bans poultry imports from India over bird flu

[I]  Japan warns on Brexit: we cannot continue in UK without profit

[I]  Meltdown raises fears of 'financial innovation the planet doesn't really need'

[I]  Why cool the economy down now, Fed's Kashkari asks

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Trade Deal Isn't Key to Brexit Success, U.K.'s Labour Says

[I]  BOE's U.K. Upgrades All Come Down to a Stronger Global Economy

[I]  Don't Forget This Bull Market Hasn't Been Correction-Proof

[I]  India's Oil Hunger to Grow Despite its Electric Car Ambitions

[I]  Asian Stocks Slide After U.S. Tumble; Yen Steadies

[I]  New Era of Currency Volatility Leaves Bearish Dollar Bets Intact

[I]  Theresa May Plans Instant Split From Some EU Rules After Brexit

[I]  World's Biggest Wealth Fund Eyes Long Game in Japanese Property

[I]  Japan Still Beating China in Southeast Asia Infrastructure Race

[I]  China Takes a Hard Look at Corporate Borrowers

[I]  India, Indonesia Will Jump Into the Top 5 Air-Travel Markets

[I]  China Cheat Sheet: Key Functions and Data to Track Its Markets

[I]  Sizing Up China’s Debt Bubble: Bloomberg Economics

[I]  Everything's a Sell in China After $660 Billion Equity Wipeout

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt may give sops to merchants for adopting digital payments

[I]  Electrifying cities before bringing in e-bikes

[I]  Support for export promotion schemes to cross Rs. 1 lakh crore this fiscal: Prabhu

[I]  Businesses claim more tax breaks as accelerated depreciation than all deductions by individuals

[I]  Govt imposes stockholding limits for sugar mills

[I]  Open banking ushering in a new world of opportunity

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Soon, PAN may become the only Aadhaar of your business

[I]  10 years after financial crisis, 2018 may teach a $100 trillion lesson to global economy 

[I]  Bullish bets on most Asian currencies drop as yields spike lifts dollar

[I]  Telcos want government to postpone 5G spectrum auctions till FY20

[I]  India ranks 44 out of 50 nations in global IP index

[I]  Watch: Taxman considering formal crypto ban?

[I]  IP reforms not enough to push India out of US’ watch list

[I]  Will Modi government kill Bitcoin for Lakshmi, its own cryptocurrency?

[I]  Time to regulate digital business? A few US and Chinese firms wield monopoly power

[I]  Stamp Duty Act revamp on the cards

[I]  Fixing fair value of bankrupt company under IBC mandatory now

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Auto Expo 2018: Clean mobility focused start-ups a new highlight

[I]  Commerce ministry mulls higher 5% rate for interest equalisation scheme

[I]  Rail IPOs to help meet Rs 1-trillion revised disinvestment target

[I]  India's renewable energy project tendering to be an all-time high in FY18

[I]  The electrifying reality: Govt must chalk out an EV road map

[I]  Stress on profitability: Letter to BS on options to de-stress PSBs

[I]  Bond yields fall on rate status quo hope; Rs 110 bn bond auction on Friday

[I]  Making knowledge free can cost you your freedom

[I]  India improves IP index score to 44 but still among bottom 10 nations

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10335;  USDINR DGCX: 64.6275;  DJIA Mini: 23971;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7057;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21286;  EUR-USD: 1.2251; Crude Oil (WTI): 60.53;  Gold (Spot): 1318

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 Feb 2018