EVERYTHING WE NEED IS ALREADY WITHIN US. WISHING A CONTENTED WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Feb 2019

 

A rally in domestic prices curtailed physical gold demand in India and Japan, with interest in the precious metal lacklustre in other Asian centres. India's cash-starved residential real estate market is set to get a boost from foreign and domestic private equity firms, which are lining up big bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars for the sector.

 

Negotiators made progress on a memorandum of understanding that could serve as the basis for a deal that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could later finalize.  Economic data are usually noisy, but this week included an onslaught of negative and often contradictory signals that made even seasoned economists scratch their heads. Consumers’ outlook for the U.S. economy rose in early February as American households absorbed the end of the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its rate increases. Inflation moderated across the board in China last month in another sign of lethargic domestic demand—one that economists said gives the central bank more room to stimulate economic growth. Volatile energy prices are holding down overall inflation in the U.S. economy, but underlying price growth remains steady.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump declares emergency to pay for border wall

[I]  US-China trade talks end with little sign of progress

[I]  Global miners count the cost of their failings

[I]  UK pubs toast recovery while restaurant chains struggle

[I]  UK art galleries prepare for Brexit

[I]  Labour joins tussle over ‘unfair’ tax avoidance charge

[I]  Global spending on cards set to reach $45tn by 2023

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fed policymakers see one U.S. rate hike, or none, as growth slows

[I]  India gold demand falls

[I]  Factories to test world's 'delicate equilibrium'

[I]  Private equity firms eye India's residential real estate space

[I]  U.S., Canada challenge Indian price supports on pulses

[I]  India's January trade deficit widens, slow exports growth a concern

[I]  India's oil imports from Iran plunged 45 percent in January

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Reaches 2019 High as Saudis Curb Output, Trade Tensions Ease

[I]  Record EU Trade Surplus With U.S. Could Put Trump Truce at Risk

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Production Unexpectedly Contracts in January

[I]  Trump’s Border Wall ‘Emergency’ Faces First Legal Challenge

[I]  Trump, Xi Hail Progress in Trade Talks as Tariff Deadline Nears

[I]  Spanish Election Throws Rock Through Britain's Brexit Window

[I]  Fed Will Probably Change Its Approach to Inflation, Dudley Says

[I]  Montreal’s Real-Estate Market Is About to Eclipse Vancouver’s

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Chinese, U.S. Trade Negotiators Inch Toward a Broad Agreement

[I]  Contradictory Data Confound Economists

[I]  New Tariffs Threaten to Boost Prices of Imported Cars, Parts

[I]  Factory Output Contracts Unexpectedly in January

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises

[I]  Illinois Governor to Sign Bill Raising Minimum Wage to $15 an Hour by 2025

[I]  China’s Muted Inflation Likely to Spur Policy Easing

[I]  Energy Prices Hold Down Overall U.S. Inflation

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  MFN status to Pakistan withdrawn; import ban, port curbs on the cards

[I]  After Vande Bharat, more high-speed trains coming

[I]  Women continue to ‘wage’ a daily battle for pay parity

[I]  Exports grow 3.74% to $26.36 billion in Jan, trade deficit widens to $15.67 b

[I]  Singapore eyes smaller Indian cities

[I]  Only six PSBs cross ‘desirable’ level of 70% provision coverage ratio

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India chalks out a $12 billion plan to combat air pollution

[I]  Rice Exports to gather steam on US, West Asia demand boost

[I]  Commerce ministry to notify WTO regarding revoking MFN status to Pakistan

[I]  India's Jan trade deficit widens to $14.73 billion: Trade ministry

[I]  Flow of credit, caution listing, GST refunds a concern for exports: Industry tells govt

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Q3 results review: Corporate earnings see biggest dip in three quarters

[I]  India to soon have 100 more Vande Bharat Express trains, says Piyush Goyal

[I]  High cost of credit worries exporters as growth space shrinks

[I]  Govt proposes incentives worth Rs 88,500 crore to curb power emissions

[I]  Minimum wage for workers may rise by up to five times in 10 states

[I]  Small savings, fuel tax help govt reduce fiscal deficit to 3.4 % in FY19

[I]  RBI withdraws 20% limit on investments by FPIs in corporate bonds

[I]  RBI proposes hedging for 'anticipated exposure' of foreign currency debt

[I]  E-visa norms eased, tourists can stay up to one year with multiple entries

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
16 Feb 2019

TRYING IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD FAILURE; IRONICALLY FOR SUCCESS TOO. WISHING TRIUMPH FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 15 Feb 2019

 

Germany's economy stalled in the final quarter of last year, just skirting recession as fallout from global trade disputes and Brexit put the brakes on a decade of expansion amid signs that exports will stay subdued for the time being. China is counting on promises of big purchases of semiconductors and other U.S. goods to ease trade tensions and persuade President Trump to extend a tariff truce and later resolve the market-rattling dispute. The Trump administration’s pick to help overhaul the way many Americans finance their home purchases told Congress he would work to preserve the popular 30-year mortgage, a product he has criticized in the past. A government watchdog said Education Department leaders were lax in regulating the industry that collects student-loan payments for the government, possibly contributing to a rise in defaults.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US key holiday retail sales shrink by most since 2009

[I]  Russia and Iran take Turkey to task on Syria terror

[I]  Iraq caught in crossfire as Trump upends US policy

[I]  US and China resume talks to resolve trade impasse

[I]  China exports return to growth despite trade tensions

[I]  May suffers Commons defeat on Brexit plan B

[I]  Germany avoids slipping into recession by a whisker

 

REUTERS

[I]  Gold prices firm as dollar eases on grim U.S. retail sales

[I]  Hong Kong snares record haul of rhino horns from South Africa

[I]  U.S. House passes border security bill, sends to Trump

[I]  China's factory-gate prices slow for seventh month, raising deflation fears

[I]  China sets anti-dumping tariffs on Brazilian chicken imports for five years

[I]  Oil prices hit 2019 highs amid OPEC-led supply cuts

[I]  Mexico factory exports seen slowing in 2019 amid trade wars, labor strikes

[I]  'Black eye' for German economy as it flirts with recession

[I]  Chance of a U.S. recession up, number of Fed rate hikes down: Reuters poll

[I]  Singapore fourth quarter GDP growth at two-year low, warning for manufacturing

[I]  Poorer EU countries should fight youth unemployment with reforms: IMF's Lagarde

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Congress Sends Trump Bill to Avert Shutdown Amid Emergency Plan

[I]  Trump Plans to Unilaterally Shift Almost $7 Billion for Wall, Official Says

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks Set to Wrap Up With Few Signs of Progress

[I]  Illinois Governor Eyes Bond Sale, Tax Hike to Rescue Pensions

[I]  China’s Slowing Factory Prices Add to Deflation Concerns

[I]  U.K. Parliament Throws Out May’s Plan to Renegotiate Brexit Deal

[I]  U.S. Soy Exports Won't Reach Pre-Trade War Levels for Years

[I]  Ham Prices Slump in Year of the Pig

[I]  China’s Slowing Factory Prices Add to Deflation Concerns

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Retail Sales Declined at Fastest Pace Since 2009 in December

[I]  China Seeks to Woo U.S. With Promise of Big Chip Purchases

[I]  In Need of Workers, the Midwest Recruits From Puerto Rico

[I]  The Green New Deal’s Global Blind Spot

[I]  Trump Pick Pledges to Preserve 30-Year Mortgage

[I]  Education Department Faulted on Student Loan Servicers

[I]  Retail Sales Fell in December at Fastest Pace Since 2009

[I]  Fed’s Brainard Says Balance-Sheet Runoff Should Probably End This Year

[I]  Gauge of Business Prices Ticked Down at Start of 2019

[I]  Trade Friction Stymies Growth in Germany and Japan

[I]  China’s 9% Surge in Exports Surprises Economists

[I]  Japanese Economy Scores Rebound

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST threshold raised for suppliers of goods in most States

[I]  WPI-inflation at 10-month low of 2.76% in January

[I]  Only 17% of firms report cyber attacks: EY

[I]  India, US to cooperate in defence, aerospace, financial services sectors

[I]  Centre offers 50 paise/unit support for solar projects that use locally produced equipment

[I]  Hotel industry expects upswing in room tariffs

[I]  Low-pressure area unleashes wet spell over North-West

[I]  Foreign investors shy away from Indian bonds

[I]  Banks step up lending to corporates

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Education's demand-supply gap to spoil demographic dividend?

[I]  Mills to sell sugar at Rs 31/kg now from Rs 29 earlier: Ram Vilas Paswan

[I]  Growth likely to reach 7.5 per cent next fiscal: Chief Economic Adviser

[I]  Government panel for raising minimum wage to Rs 375

[I]  Companies stare at cash flow problems due to new credit utilisation rules

[I]  GST relief for realty sector coming: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Economic data woes in India prompt call for independent verifier

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Domestic companies see gross refining margins nosedive in December quarter

[I]  With rapid growth, India's advertising sector eyes Rs 1-trillion mark

[I]  Job creation, technology transfer, investments dominate India-US talks

[I]  Expert committee suggests Rs 9,750 a month as national minimum wage

[I]  Weighted average call rate anomaly needs to be fixed, says RBI research

[I]  RBI governor Shaktikanta Das rules out asset quality review of NBFCs

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10789;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1125;  DJIA Mini: 25335;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7141;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20886;  EUR-USD: 1.1289; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.56;  Gold (Spot): 1312

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
15 Feb 2019

TO LOVE ANOTHER PERSON IS TO SEE THE FACE OF GOD. TO LOVE EVERY PERSON IS TO FACE THE GOD. TO LOVE EVERYTHING IS GOD ITSELF. WISHING A LOVING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Feb 2019

FED tax revenue declined 0.4% in 2018, the first full calendar year under the new tax law, despite robust economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly five decades. Japan’s economic growth rebounded in the last quarter of 2018 but the slowdown in China is expected to weigh going forward. The U.K. economy experienced its weakest growth since 2012 last year as businesses slashed investment in the face of growing uncertainty about the way in which the country will leave the European Union. A wave of strikes at low-wage plants in a border city threatens to spark increased labor strife as Mexico prepares to overhaul laws to empower workers following a new trade deal with the U.S. and Canada.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]   Spain edges towards early polls after budget setback 

[I]   Australia cites ‘witching hour’ for currency crashes 

[I]   Dutch PM warns of ‘devastating’ no-deal Brexit for UK 

[I]   Fed official warns against crimping US growth 

[I]   Moderate inflation can lead to economic crisis 

REUTERS

[I]   Wary of shutdown, Trump inches toward support for wall deal

[I]   Japan fourth-quarter GDP rebounds but trade frictions remain a concern

[I]   Gold up on Fed rate pause signals; strong equities limit gains

[I]   UK house price outlook darkest since 2011: RICS

BLOOMBERG 

[I]   Trump Says China Trade Talks Going ‘Very Well’ Ahead of Deadline

[I]   Tale of Two Central Banks Casts Aussie-Kiwi Fight Into Spotlight

[I]   Japan’s Economy Rebounds Moderately From Natural Disasters

[I]   What Shutdown? Bond Market Sees No Risk as Capital Sells Debt

[I]   Fed Officials’ Views on the Economy Have Converged: It's in a Good Place

[I]   China's Stock Traders Snap Up Everything 5G

[I]   U.K. Housing Slump Endures in 2019 as Brexit Hangs Over Outlook

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]   U.S. Tax Revenues Fall, Deficit Widens in Wake of New Tax Law

[I]   Japanese Economy Scores Rebound

[I]   Energy Prices Hold Down Overall U.S. Inflation

[I]   The Unrealistic Economics of the Green New Deal

[I]   New Nafta Is Threatened by Partisan Split Over Enforcement

[I]   Strikes at Low-Wage Plants Signal Revival of Labor Demands in Mexico

[I]   Job Openings Push Further into Record Territory at End of 2018

[I]   U.K. Posts Slowest Growth in Six Years Amid Brexit Worries

BUSINESS LINE

[I]   Loan against shares: SEBI to tighten screws on MFs

[I]   Cabinet clears higher MSP of Rs. 3,950/quintal for raw jute

[I]   Jaitley likely to chair GST Council meet next week; lower levy for housing on the cards

[I]   Lok Sabha passes Bill to ban unregulated deposit schemes

[I]   Amendments to Citizenship, Motor Vehicles, Chit Fund Acts among 38 Bills set to lapse

[I]   Focus is on building more airports in metros : Sinha

[I]   A strategy for creating more jobs

[I]   ECB an option to resolve stressed assets

[I]   Leveraging geospatial tech in banking

[I]   Low prices continue to haunt Maharashtra’s onion growers

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]   US warns countries against buying Venezuelan oil

[I]   RBI turns net buyer of dollar in December after almost 9 months

[I]   SEBI to strengthen investigative efforts over issues of corporate governance

[I]   How softer inflation brought buoyancy for bonds

[I]   A new leadership model is needed for changing world order

[I]   View: ‘Minimum government, maximum governance’ is all well. But how big should GoI ideally be?

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]   Insolvency code amendment on cards to ensure NCLT-approved plans are obeyed

[I]   Bank credit up 14.5% to Rs 94.29 trn, deposits rise 9.63%: RBI data

[I]   Airlines face pilot shortage; around 2,000 more needed in 2018-19

[I]   Fearing backlash at WTO, India rules out import duty hikes for copper, iron

[I]   India slips into a pre-Keynesian world

[I]   Valuation of Indian equities still remain expensive, says Credit Suisse

[I]   US warns countries, including India, against buying Venezuelan oil

[I]   Trump says could extend China trade talks deadline beyond March 1

MARKETS (06:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10777;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0175;  DJIA Mini: 25473;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7127;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21122;  EUR-USD: 1.1267; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.00;  Gold (Spot): 1309

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Feb 2019