Song, Smile, and A Saturday

Wishing A Serene Day Ahead 

 

Best Regards

Arbind

 

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Macro-Economic News 23 Jan 2021

 

India, within a week of the largest campaign, vaccinated more than a million of its citizen. It coincides with Indian Rabi planting hitting an all-time high at 675 lakh hectares.

 

The RBI has proposed tighter, bank-like regulation of the so-called shadow lending sector. It also signals its plans to drain some of the massive liquidity it has pumped into the banking system – a potential challenge for the government's borrowing program. The government is expected to bring significant changes to foreign investment rules for e-commerce, plugging its loopholes.

 

This budget (and the year) brings high expectations from all. Deloitte finds about 50% of industry respondents expecting a revival of their businesses. West Bengal seeks the Centre to allow States to borrow an additional 2 percent of Gross State Domestic Products (GSDP) - unconditionally. SBI research suggests increasing the investment limit of PPF and Senior Citizens Savings Scheme in Budget. The former CEA Arvind Virmani recommends prioritizing tax reforms.

 

The U.S. home construction, the highest since 2006 and general business activities – highest since 2007 as per IHS Markit - from manufacturers and service providers accelerated at the start of the new year, while capacity constraints generated more inflationary pressures remains firm in the U.S.  

 

The Swedish economy is set to contract on extended Swedish restrictions at the start of 2021 whereas exports from South Korea are picking up. U.K. household balance sheets seem healthier awaiting enough people to be vaccinated and restrictions to be lifted – for a quick economic rebound, although new-home sales in London are plummeting as lockdowns hurt demand and investors hold back from building apartments.

 

South Africa may revise its tax increase targets as its budget shortfall is set to breach wartime levels for a second consecutive year.

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 Friday is a conforming celebration.

Wishing A Day Full of Fun

 

Best Regards

Arbind

 

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Macro-Economic News 22 Jan 2021

 

What’s next: 100K in another five years; maybe a ‘Yea’.

 

The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged but reaffirmed a pledge to keep borrowing costs at record lows to help the eurozone economy withstand the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Lagarde strikes an optimistic tone with ECB preparedness to provide even more support to the economy if needed or keeping some powder dry if markets remain benign. New Zealand Inflation Surprise Suggests No More RBNZ Rate Cuts.

 

India will give millions of doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to South Asian countries in the next few weeks, drawing praise from its neighbors. A strong and durable India-US partnership will be a key to address the broad range of challenges impacting the global community today while Global policymakers look for Biden to reset on trade, tax, and climate. While in the U.S., Jobless claims remained elevated last week as About 900,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits last week.

 

India plans to expand the summer-crops area by 50%. From automation to the gig economy, India needs to work on its skilling program, especially for its labor surplus. Govt stares at revenue shortfall of Rs 7 trillion this fiscal year; whereas RBI pronounces economy getting over pandemic, growth headed for 'glorious summer'.

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Peace is the God’s Provision and Promise

Wishing A Placid Day Ahead

 

Best Regards

Arbind

 

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Macro-Economic News 21 Jan 2021

 

Sensex scales to a superb 50,000 level for the first time, in hopes of an economic recovery and positive cues from the new Biden administration. Although, the record rally of emerging markets rally is also flashing warning signs.

 

Joe Biden, 46th US president, preparing for a fight over tax, minimum wage, and restoring America’s trust. For India, the US remains a key forex source, accounting for 15-17% of goods exports.

 

Making a case for a sweeping stimulus package Janet Yellen invoked an enduring era of low-interest rates and urges to put aside concerns about the mounting national debt. 

 

The ECB is emulating its Asia-Pacific peers by controlling government borrowing costs - just in a uniquely European way. The Bank of Canada is adopting a positive tone on the outlook, looking past a weak start to 2021 as vaccine efforts accelerate. Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged amid gloomy outlook while Indonesia is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged as it assesses signs of price and currency pressures.

 

Indian may bring back infra bonds for taxpayers while the fiscal deficit of states is expected to hit a peak of Rs 8.7 lakh crore or 4.7 percent of their GDP. India Inc looking for a demand push, increase in expenditure in Budget 2021 whereas Fitch finds a weak reform implementation, financial sector woes could lower India's medium-term growth.

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 Therefore We live for Today: Smile and Care

Wishing A Gentle Day Ahead

 

Best Regards

Arbind

 

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Macro-Economic News 20 Jan 2021

 

India may contribute to 15% of global growth by FY26; India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has described her upcoming budget as unlike anything seen in the last 100 years.

 

Yellen vows to take a hard line against currency manipulation and emphasizes she won’t seek a weaker Dollar. She also makes a case for a sweeping stimulus package while hedge fund industry assets surge to record $3.6tn.

 

IMF opines that Germany shouldn’t be afraid to bolster fiscal stimulus if the pandemic drags out the economic recovery. Eurozone banks scale back lending as bad-debt fears grow, while ECB is capping bond yields.

 

Central banks across Asia are starting the year juggling policy reviews and political pressure to do more to support their economies. Malaysia’s first interest-rate decision of the year is accomodating. In contrast, the Bank of Canada may refrain from adding new stimulus.

 

RBI flags that India’s troubled shadow banks face mounting challenges to a nascent recovery from the pandemic, with their asset quality set to deteriorate further. NPA swelled to the highest in at least five years, up 100 basis points from the year earlier, and the RBI forecasts it’s headed higher. Fitch Ratings said rating outlooks have turned negative for many NBFCs and that asset quality risks loom this year.

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 The world is Witnessing A Wonderful Change

Wishing A Day Full of Actions

-Arbind

 

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Macro-Economic News 19 Jan 2021

 

The world warned the world on the brink of a "catastrophic moral failure" because of unequal Covid vaccine policies, as poor-countries fall behind richer. Biden’s selection of a team of financial regulators, with progressive favorites, indicates a new era of tougher oversight and stricter rules.

 

African central bankers, scheduled to meet over the next weeks, appears to have used up most of their interest-rate ammunition to lift their economies out of recessions that still affect much of the continent. Monetary policy committees have limited scope to provide stimulus after aggressive easing when lockdowns first shuttered output in 2020, with inflation quickening in Nigeria and Angola and restrictions that would dull the impact of rate cuts continuing in South Africa and Kenya.

 

While Joe Biden inherits a litany of unresolved issues, Janet Yellen steps into a new role of a salesperson for economic policy calling for more aid to avoid a long and painful recession. In the meantime, Malaysia unveiled a 15 billion ringgit ($3.7 billion) package to help the economy weather the impact of a fresh surge of infections.

 

India is likely to target a fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP by FY26 following the prediction of a continued uptrend of Indian economic activities after its robust rebound. 

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Economy, Covid, Concern, and Everything is Growing;

Wishing A Week of Growing Hope

-Arbind

Macro-Economic News 18 Jan 2021

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There is a wall of global cash waiting to swoop in and buy, likely limiting the upside in yields, possibly having far-reaching implications from this looming appetite. ECB threatens banks with capital ‘add-ons’ over-leveraged loan risks, meanwhile, EU rules promise to reshape the opaque world of sustainable investment even though lockdowns fuel fears of a double-dip recession in the Eurozone.

The second wave of Coronavirus surges across various nations that would vex central bankers on five continents this week as they weigh the threat of more damage to growth against the hope that mass vaccinations will reopen economies. Officials are trying to gauge if another economic contraction is imminent. Most are likely to maintain current ultra-loose policy settings without committing to more easing as they keep a wary eye on the disease while crossing fingers on its eventual eradication.

Japan, Norway, and Ukraine are forecasted to keep rates unchanged, as are their colleagues in South Africa is projected for more easing to support the economy. Turkey’s central bank is expected to keep the nation’s benchmark interest rate at 17%. 

Start-ups found an opportunity in adversity during the pandemic catering to the diverse needs as India will launch a ‘Startup India Seed Fund’ with a ₹1,000-crore corpus to help start-ups get seed money for starting their ventures and help them grow.

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