PATIENCE, PEACE, AND PRECAUTION ARE PRIME PROTECTION. WISHING A PRETTY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Mar 2020

Central bank ramps up efforts to stop coronavirus triggering a credit crunch in Europe although public finances will be driven deep into the red as government tackles the pandemic. ECB orders banks to freeze dividends and share buybacks while RBI joins coronavirus fight and calls for ‘war effort’ as coronavirus shuts down country, providing much-needed shot to infuse Rs 3.74 lakh cr liquidity into financial system with big-bang rate move, reducing CRR and putting EMIs on hold although Indians are locked down with Rs 23L cr cash. FED officials are reviewing new ways to support financing for state and local governments, many of which are on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic and will face huge borrowing needs as revenues plunge. Trump Signs $2 Trillion coronavirus stimulus package into a law a sweeping relief bill that House lawmakers had hustled back to the Capitol to pass quickly, overcoming one GOP member’s last-minute move to delay the legislation. OECD predicts that measures to curb the coronavirus could lower economic activity in the U.S. and other developed countries 20% to 25%. U.S. consumer sentiment hits near 3-1/2-year low and Moody's cuts India's economic growth in 2020 to 2.5% from 5.3% while ICRA expects GDP is likely to grow just 2% in 2020-21.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB orders banks to freeze dividends and share buybacks

[I]  Top of Form

Sunak adds extra £60bn public spending to fight coronavirus

[I]  Top of Form

US stimulus alleviates panic but lull may just be temporary

[I]  Top of Form

The global health emergency makes trade more important, not less

[I]  Top of Form

Heavy take-up of Fed swaps eases strains on dollar

[I]  Pandemic is causing the biggest disruption in decades to economies across the world

[I]  Top of Form

German labour market freezes, adding to Europe jobless worries

[I]  India cuts benchmark rate to lowest level on record

[I]  Top of Form

Farmers warn over food supply with harvest workers shut out

REUTERS

[I]  India cuts rates as distress mounts across South Asia

[I]  Bruised Indian economy to be battered further by coronavirus: Reuters poll

[I]  RBI takes steps to counter economic impact of coronavirus

[I]  Historic $2.2 trillion coronavirus bill passes U.S. House, becomes law

[I]  Coronavirus cases top half a million, protective gear lacking - WHO

[I]  As U.S. virus cases exceed 100,000, doctors decry scarcity of drugs and equipment

[I]  Saudi Arabia says no talks on new oil deal, Moscow suggests larger OPEC+

[I]  Graphic: Cash handouts and bond buying: $10 trillion-plus deployed against virus

[I]  A U.S. recession? Probably. Depression? Only if the virus is untamed 

[I]  U.S. consumer sentiment near 3-1/2-year low, spending tepid

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Stimulus Propels Stocks to Best Week Since 2009: Markets Wrap

[I]  Oil Drops Fifth Straight Week on Heightened Supply-Demand Shock

[I]  South Africa Gets Full House of Junk Ratings as Moody’s Cuts

[I]  U.K.’s Credit Rating Cut Because of All the Money It’s Spending to Fight the Virus

[I]  Fed Set to Dial Back Pace of QE Treasury Buying Next Thursday

[I]  Oil-Industry Collapse Accelerates as Scores of Rigs Go Dark

[I]  Alternative Lenders Halt Redemptions, Signaling Mortgage Cracks

[I]  One Corner of U.S. Oil Market Has Already Seen Negative Prices

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Considering Additional Support for State, Local Government Finance

[I]  Trump Signs $2 Trillion Coronavirus Stimulus Package

[I]  Coronavirus Measures Could Cut Economic Activity by a Quarter, Report Says

[I]  How Fast the Economy Crashed and Washington Responded—in Charts

[I]  Pennsylvania, With Most Jobless Claims in U.S., Could Foretell High Numbers Elsewhere

[I]  Regulators Adjust U.S. Bank Capital Requirements to Encourage Lending

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Allow us to work with half the regular workforce: Exporters to Centre

[I]  BS-IV: SC breather for auto makers

[I]  Covid-19 lockdown: Over 15 lakh trucks, 35 lakh drivers stuck on roads without support

[I]  Moody’s slashes India GDP growth in 2020 to 2.5%

[I]  India Inc enthused by RBI decisions but want quick transmission

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserves fall the most since 2008 crisis

[I]  The world is staring at an oil storage problem

[I]  The RBI's Covid loan breather, decoded

[I]  Covid: Indians are locked down with Rs 23L cr cash

[I]  RBI provides much-needed shot in the arm to corporate debt market

[I]  RBI to infuse Rs 3.74 lakh cr liquidity into financial system

[I]  GDP likely to grow just 2% in 2020-21: Icra

[I]  Moody's cuts India's economic growth in 2020 to 2.5% from 5.3%

[I]  RBI joins coronavirus fight with big-bang rate move, EMIs put on hold

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  SBI cuts lending rate by 75 bps as RBI introduces liquidity package

[I]  Covid-19: Cognizant to give 25% extra pay to two-thirds of India workforce

[I]  Covid-19 relief: RBI cuts repo 75 bps; defers term-loan EMIs for 3 months

[I]  Moody's slashes India's GDP growth rate to three-decade low of 2.5%

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Comparing India's economy in the 2 major crisis periods

[I]  RBI relief package to help sustain businesses during coronavirus: Bankers

[I]  Corporate bonds get Rs 1-trn relief as coronavirus ignites large sell-offs

Best Regards, ARBIND

28 Mar 2020

MAY THIS PAUSE IS WELL CONSUMED. WISHING AN INSPIRING DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 27 Mar 2020

 

FM outlines ₹1.7 lakh crore economic stimulus to help poor hit by lockdown as for India’s estimated 120 million migrant labourers, the shutdown is a crisis, as wages dry up and many cannot afford the rent or even food in the cities while trade unions write to PM, seek Rs 5-7 lakh cr relief package. CRISIL cuts GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2021 to 3.5 per cent whereas SBI research expects that economic growth may fall sharply to 2.6 per cent. The ECB signals to aggressively support Italy and other indebted eurozone countries, by starting purchases under a new €750 billion ($812 billion) bond-buying program although European banks back suspension of dividends and buybacks and UK Banks call for freeze on UK housing market. The FED balance sheet soared past $5 trillion in assets for the first time this week as it scooped up bonds and extended loans to banks, mutual funds and other central banks in its unprecedented effort while G20 leaders are to inject $5 trillion into global economy and big banks are postponing decisions about staff cuts despite their businesses getting a hard hit. Oil producers are selling in the physical market at much lower prices, than its futures, not seen since the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. Despite FED chairman assurance to make businesses of all sizes to have a bridge of support, more than 3 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week. A strong labor market had kept the U.S. economy humming for a decade—and then, in a matter of days, it stopped. U.S. home healthcare industry warns of possible 'collapse'. 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US jobless claims surge to record 3.3m

[I]  Banks call for freeze on UK housing market

[I]  SEC steps in after investors buy up the wrong Zoom

[I]  US overtakes China for most confirmed coronavirus cases

[I]  Ireland’s job losses show scale of global coronavirus shock

[I]  Trump urged to use wartime powers over US companies

[I]  ECB shakes off limits on new €750bn bond buying plan

[I]  Russia to tax bank deposits to fund coronavirus package

[I]  European banks back suspension of dividends and buybacks

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's migrant workers face long walk home amid coronavirus lockdown

[I]  India outlines $23 billion stimulus to help poor

[I]  U.S. House leaders determined to pass $2.2 trillion coronavirus bill

[I]  G20 leaders to inject $5 trillion into global economy in fight against coronavirus

[I]  Fed balance sheet tops $5 trillion for first time as it enters coronavirus war mode

[I]  Tens of millions face losing jobs in escalating coronavirus crisis

[I]  China's industrial firms post steepest fall in profits in a decade

[I]  U.S. home healthcare industry warns of possible 'collapse'

[I]  UK throws lifeline to self-employed hit by coronavirus

[I]  Big banks reassure staff about potential job cuts

[I]  In oil markets, it's back to 1998 crisis pricing

[I]  ECB primes money-printing gun to combat coronavirus 

[I]  China implementing $344 billion of mainly fiscal measures in coronavirus fight

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already

[I]  India’s Monetary Panel Finalizes Steps to Boost Economy

[I]  Chinese Industrial Firms See Profits Slump on Virus Impact

[I]  Virus-Stricken African Currencies Are Set for Even More Pain

[I]  Balance Sheet Blowout, Jobless Spike, RBA 1-Week of QE: Eco Day

[I]  Echoes of 1997 Asia Financial Crisis Haunt Region’s Debt Market

[I]  Zimbabwe Restores Dollar Peg as Currency Crashes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Says Economy May Be in Recession, Virus Will Dictate Timetable

[I]  Record Rise in Jobless Claims Halts Historic Run of Employment Growth

[I]  Senate Approves Near $2 Trillion Virus Relief Package

[I]  Relief Package Would Limit Coronavirus Damage, Not Restore Economy

[I]  What’s in the $2 Trillion Senate Coronavirus Bill

[I]  Europe Opts for Economic Freeze in Coronavirus Tradeoff

[I]  ECB Begins New Bond Purchases, Throwing Weight Behind Virus-Hit Nations

[I]  Mnuchin Says U.S. Financial Markets to Remain Open

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Covid-19: Government paves way for doorstep delivery of drugs

[I]  Coronavirus relief package: States urged to use District Mineral Fund for medical-testing, screening facilities

[I]  CRISIL cuts GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2021 to 3.5 per cent

[I]  Government extends ban on international commercial airlines flying to India till April 15

[I]  PM Gareeb Kalyan: Half of Jan Dhan account holders to benefit from cash transfer

[I]  FM outlines ₹1.7 lakh crore economic stimulus to help poor hit by lockdown

[I]  There is enough produce, supply chain is the problem, say suppliers

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How catastrophic will virus be for economy? This holds clue

[I]  India sees 10 IPOs in March quarter; median deal size just $1 million

[I]  Which sectors to take biggest hit & which ones will survive with some bruises

[I]  Covid-19 takes a toll on state bonds

[I]  Farmers left stranded with fruit and veggies lying in the fields

[I]  Economic growth may fall sharply to 2.6 per cent in 2020-21: SBI Ecowrap

[I]  Coronavirus lockdown: Trade unions write to PM, seek Rs 5-7 lakh cr relief package

[I]  Indian Industry seeks 10-point boost plan from govt for the exporters effected by coronavirus

[I]  Covid 19: Centre sets up control room to monitor supply of essential commodities

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  New-age warriors against coronavirus: Robots, drones, chatbots, apps

[I]  Delay in regulatory leeway likely to prove costly affair for banks

[I]  Govt allows doorstep delivery of drugs to help citizens under lockdown

[I]  Centre asks states to allow manufacture, distribution of packaged foods

[I]  How start-ups are spotting unhappy consumers and addressing their needs

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8795;  USDINR DGCX: 74.8950;  DJIA Mini: 21970;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5620;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 18895;  EUR-USD: 1.1067; Crude Oil (WTI): 22.96;  Gold (Spot): 1627

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

27 Mar 2020

CREATE, CREATE AND CREATE - SOMETHING WORTH SMILING. WISHING A FULFILLING DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 26 Mar 2020

 

India is likely to agree an economic stimulus package of more than 1.5 trillion rupees to fight a downturn in the country that is currently locked down to stem the spread of coronavirus, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Singapore's economy suffered its biggest contraction in a decade in the first quarter as the pandemic prompted the city-state to cut its full-year GDP forecast and plan for a deep recession. The Senate moved toward voting on an estimated $2 trillion stimulus package designed to shield the economy from the ravages. Retailers in the U.S. and Europe are suspending and cancelling clothing orders, threatening millions of factory jobs in Asia just as China shows signs of recovering. Global lenders seek debt relief for poorest countries while Fed’s Anti-Virus lending firepower is expected to reach $4.5 trillion whereas China’s central bank in talks to cut rate banks pay to savers. New Zealand economy facing biggest decline in activity ever seen while U.K. house sales set to plunge 60% on lockdown impact. 3% of GDP worth tax reliefs may cost India while EMI, loan payments could be paused to battle a Covid squeeze although e-commerce delivery services excluded from curfew restrictions in Maharashtra.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Global lenders seek debt relief for poorest countries

[I]  Banks enjoy trading bonanza as markets churn

[I]  Europe faces coronavirus choice: to close economy or not

[I]  Nine eurozone countries issue call for ‘coronabonds’

[I]  India’s migrant workers flee cities and threaten countryside

[I]  Sweden bucks trend with experimental virus strategy

[I]  China’s central bank in talks to cut rate banks pay to savers

 

REUTERS

[I]  India may unveil $20 billion-plus stimulus package

[I]  India's huge outsourcing industry struggles with work-from-home scenario

[I]  Singapore flags deep recession as coronavirus shrinks economy in first quarter

[I]  Childhoods on pause in coronavirus pandemic

[I]  U.S. Senate poised to vote on passage of $2 trillion coronavirus bill

[I]  Germans and Dutch set to block EU 'corona bonds' at video summit

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  PBOC Acts to Stabilize Yuan After Currency Underperforms Peers

[I]  New Zealand Economy Facing Biggest Decline in Activity Ever Seen

[I]  U.K. House Sales Set to Plunge 60% on Coronavirus Lockdown Impact

[I]  How Coronavirus Has Upended Economics in Just a Few Weeks

[I]  Pension Funding Breaks Could Ease Corporate Cash Crunch

[I]  China’s Economy Faces Virus Aftershocks From Lost Jobs to Debt

[I]  Fed’s Anti-Virus Lending Firepower Could Reach $4.5 Trillion

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Will Approve Some Delays in Tariff Payments Amid Coronavirus Crisis

[I]  U.S. Income Tax Delay to Strain States

[I]  Senate Moves Toward Vote on Stimulus Package

[I]  Federal Reserve Taps BlackRock to Purchase Bonds for the Government

[I]  Fed Digital Dollars Are Part of Debate Over Stimulus

[I]  Retailers Cancel Orders From Asian Factories, Threatening Millions of Jobs

[I]  Unemployment Checks Delayed in Crisis

[I]  Coronavirus Triggers Record Drops in U.S., European Business Activity

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Domestic aviation industry may incur losses of up to $3.6 billion in Q1: CAPA

[I]  Chinese firms resume export of pharma inputs to India

[I]  How non-resident e-commerce players came under equalisation levy

[I]  BPL families to get wheat/rice at ₹2/3 per kg for 3 months

[I]  Goverment approves Rs 670 crore recapitalisation plan of RRBs to improve capital base

[I]  Covid 19: Lockdown of mandis, a new challenge for farmers

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  EMI, loan payments could be paused to battle a Covid squeeze

[I]  How govt plans to keep banks up and running

[I]  Your phone may be turned into a weapon

[I]  3% of GDP: What tax reliefs may cost India

[I]  Dollar slips on $2 trillion US plan, 'riskier' currencies gain

[I]  FCI operations hit in lockdown, seeks mention in exemption list

[I]  Coronavirus could spell further trouble for commercial vehicle financiers

[I]  India headed for rare quarterly contraction on coronavirus lockdown

[I]  E-commerce delivery services excluded from curfew restrictions in Maharashtra

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  21-day lockdown: E-commerce firms set to resume work after police assurance

[I]  Migrant workers head home in coronavirus lockdown, exposed and vulnerable

[I]  Treat taxpayers with empathy amid Coronavirus: CBIC chairman to officers

[I]  Coronavirus: Banks offer fresh lines of credit to SME firms amid lockdown

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Hoarding of food in countries, threatens global trade

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8493;  USDINR DGCX: 75.7275;  DJIA Mini: 20948;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5516;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 18660;  EUR-USD: 1.0911; Crude Oil (WTI): 24.14;  Gold (Spot): 1606

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

26 Mar 2020