THE TIME IS TO CELEBRATE LIFE; IT’S NEITHER EARLY NOR LATE TO REJOICE. WISHING A MESMERIZING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Dec 2019

 

The U.S.-China trade deal is expected to deliver muted benefits to the American economy, leaving in place most tariffs on Chinese goods and uncertainty for the world’s two largest economies. US retail sales advanced at a modest pace in November. FED New York President John Williams said that the outlook for the U.S. economy remains pretty good but central bankers will need to respond to unexpected events should they arise. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to move quickly to take Britain out of the EU, while promising to deliver billions of pounds in public spending. The Saudi crown prince appears having cemented his own control, as well as liberalising the economy. Japanese business sentiment sours for fourth straight quarter while BOJ seen holding fire as trade war fears ease. The Chief Economic Advisor of India said that Govt is focusing on increasing consumption to boost economic growth while Finance Minister assured of more measures to boost economy as and when required. Prices of 12 essential drugs were hiked by 50%. India's services exports grew by over 5% to USD 17.70 billion in October although India's exports fell for 4th straight month and imports for 6th, in November. While Forex reserves soars $2.3 bn to touch all-time high of $453 bn, Moody’s cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US and China strike deal to de-escalate trade war

[I]  Beijing pledges to buy $200bn of goods while Washington scales back some tariffs

[I]  Boris Johnson’s chance to forge a new role for Britain

[I]  The Saudi crown prince has cemented his own control, as well as liberalising the economy

[I]  UN climate talks go into overtime as countries fail to agree

[I]  Japanese business sentiment sours for fourth straight quarter

[I]  Repo blame game moves focus to hedge funds

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fate of global climate action 'in the balance' as U.N. talks go down to wire

[I]  U.S.-China trade deal cuts tariffs for Beijing promise of big farm purchases

[I]  Fed policymakers see U.S. economy on good footing

[I]  Indian gold sold at discount as wedding demand disappoints

[I]  German balanced budget policy should not be a fetish - Bundesbank chief

[I]  Lacklustre U.S. retail sales cast shadow on Q4 economic growth 

[I]  BOJ seen holding fire as trade war fears ease, may warn of soft output 

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Three-Year Crisis Cycle and a Case for a Reborn Bull Market

[I]  Charting the World Economy: Fed Stokes the Hot U.S. Jobs Market

[I]  Phase-One China-U.S. Trade Deal: What’s In and What’s Missing?

[I]  Hedge Funds Grow More Bullish on Coffee as Brazil’s Reserves Vanish

[I]  U.K. Rainmakers Eye Return to Dealmaking After Tory Election Win

[I]  Argentina’s President Says He’ll Keep Teaching College Law Class

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S.-China Deal Eases, But Doesn’t End, Business Uncertainty

[I]  U.S., China Agree to Limited Trade Deal

[I]  Holiday Retail Sales Had a Lackluster November Start

[I]  Boris Johnson Sees Victory as Mandate for Swift Brexit

[I]  Fed’s Williams Says Central Bank Should Be Flexible as Data Evolves

[I]  Fed Adds $56.45 Billion in Liquidity to Navigate the Weekend

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Electricity demand dips because of longer monsoons, early winter

[I]  Climate change-induced variations impact weather and rain patterns

[I]  Exports fall marginally to $25.98 billion in November

[I]  Govt focusing on increasing consumption to boost economic growth: CEA

[I]  Moody’s cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019

[I]  More measures to boost economy as and when required, says FM

[I]  Prices of 12 essential drugs hiked by 50%

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Is policy paralysis weighing the Indian economy down?

[I]  CEA on how India's job landscape is changing

[I]  The road that India's rich are now taking

[I]  White-collar fetish is skewing the jobs scene

[I]  World Bank report projects strong long-term potential for Northeast

[I]  India's services exports grew by over 5% to USD 17.70 billion in October: RBI data

[I]  IT to get tax relief from redefined ‘intermediary’

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI considers extending bank-like vigil on NBFCs, cooperative banks

[I]  As CSR spends touch Rs 12,000 cr, investigators stalk ghost beneficiaries

[I]  Negative real interest rate no cause for concern, say economists

[I]  Banks that lend to NBFCs may face increase in their bad loans: Moody's

[I]  India's exports fall for 4th straight month, imports for 6th, in November

[I]  Forex reserves soar $2.3 bn to touch all-time high of $453 bn: RBI data

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
14 Dec 2019

ITS PLEASING TO BE COOL CALM AND COMPOSED BEFORE CHERISHED CELEBRATION; ON FRIDAY THE 13^TH OR WHATEVER. WISHING A COMMEMORATIVE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Dec 2019

 

Trump has agreed to a limited trade agreement with Beijing that will roll back existing tariff rates on Chinese goods and cancel new levies set to take effect Sunday. As the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low after the recession, critics accused it of courting inflation. Today, with a record expansion and unemployment at a 50-year low, some critics are making the opposite case: The Fed has tightened too much.  The European Central Bank joined the Federal Reserve in pausing a global wave of monetary easing, reacting to early signs that the world economy is stabilizing as international tensions and uncertainties begin to fade. Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz gave no indication that a near-term interest rate cut is in the offing while Turkey slashes key rate to 12% in bid to rev up economy and Peru holds key rate at nine-year low amid slow growth. Chinese leaders pledged stepped-up efforts to boost slowing growth, as they try to manage a downshift in a maturing economy and fallout from the trade war with the U.S. whereas Fed aims a half-trillion dollar liquidity hose at year-end risks. Indian retail inflation rose to a 40-month high of 5.54% in Nov on higher food prices with food inflation of 10% while industrial output shrinks 3.8% in October, 3rd straight month of fall. Nomura estimates a fresh low of India's economy growth at 4.3% in Q4 2019 while S&P flags growth risk that may lead to India debt downgrade; however Centre may announce increase in FPIs' debt limit to 10% during Budget 2020.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Lagarde follows Draghi’s lead but sounds upbeat tone

[I]  Germany hits back at US pipeline sanction threat

[I]  US and China near trade deal lowering tariffs

[I]  Poland resists EU carbon-neutral ambition

[I]  Fed to keep rates steady until inflation picks up

[I]  Swiss central bank warns on climate change activism

[I]  China rifts put pressure on Canada’s foreign minister

[I]  Turkey slashes key rate to 12% in bid to rev up economy

[I]  EU vows to toughen trade laws after partial collapse of WTO body

 

REUTERS

[I]  UK on track for Brexit as election landslide looms for Johnson

[I]  U.S. offers China tariff rate cut; announcement possibly 'imminent'

[I]  India's rising retail prices stokes worries of stagflation

[I]  Explainer: Reality check for Johnson's Brexit: it's just the beginning

[I]  Japan business mood gloomiest in nearly seven years as trade war bites

[I]  EU welcomes Brexit clarity from Conservative victory

[I]  Senior China diplomat says U.S. seriously damaged hard-won mutual trust

[I]  Japan government to set assumed long-term rate for budget at record low - sources

[I]  'Wise owl' Lagarde outlines broad ECB review, pledges new style

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Christmas Comes Early for Markets as Key Risks Get Taken Out

[I]  Pound Surges Most in 2 1/2 Years as Election Results Filter In

[I]  Indonesia Stirs Ghosts of 1998 With Deficit Debate

[I]  Fed Aims a Half-Trillion Dollar Liquidity Hose at Year-End Risks

[I]  It Took 13 Years for the Crisis to End in U.S. Financial Stocks

[I]  Peru Holds Key Rate at Nine-Year Low Amid Slow Growth

[I]  China’s Yuan Rises Most in a Year as Trump Approves Trade Deal

[I]  Bond Titans Betting on Inflation Gains Find a Friend in the Fed

[I]  Draghi Says Euro-Zone Banking and Fiscal Union Is Inescapable

[I]  China’s Decade of Drama for Yuan Sets New Risks for the 2020s

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Agrees to Limited Trade Deal With China

[I]  Fed’s Lesson: Keep Your Errors Manageable

[I]  ECB Keeps Rates Steady as Lagarde Makes Debut

[I]  China Signals More Efforts to Ensure Economic Growth

[I]  Warren Wealth Tax Would Raise Nearly 30% Less Than Projected, Study Finds

[I]  Bank of Canada Chief Comfortable With Country’s Interest Rate Policy

[I]  Newsletter: The Fed Hangs Loose, Big Government Spending Is Back

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  IIP contracts for third month in Oct, Nov retail inflation spikes

[I]  Food inflation at 10%, highest since January 2014

[I]  The changing landscape of customer engagement model in India

[I]  Centre committed to paying GST compensation to States, says FM

[I]   Power output and GDP growth may not be interlinked

[I]  Carbon emissions per passenger has declined more than 50% since 1990, says IATA chief

[I]  Foul weather: Airlines fly more people in Nov, but on ‘on-time’ performance dips

[I]  S&P flags growth risk that may lead to India debt downgrade

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  More pain looms for Asia’s worst-performing bonds

[I]  How India can solve its $260-billion stressed debt problem

[I]  Rising retail prices stoke fears of stagflation

[I]  IT to get tax relief from redefined ‘intermediary’

[I]  Privatisation of railways gathers speed

[I]  RBI has not put banks on alert: Shaktikanta Das

[I]  Government may impose anti-dumping duty on a chemical from five countries

[I]  India to be an outlier in the global economy: Report

[I]  India's economy to grow at 4.3% in Q4 2019 : Nomura

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Amended IBC sets threshold for initiating corporate insolvency cases

[I]  Budget 2020: Centre may announce increase in FPIs' debt limit to 10%

[I]  Despite slowdown, air traffic grows fastest in November this year at 11.2%

[I]  India's crumbling cities: Falling bridges, rising sea level weigh on Mumbai

[I]  Brokerages see global growth picking up next year, stay cautious on India

[I]  Will downgrade rating if Indian economy doesn't show recovery: S&P

[I]  Retail inflation at 40-month high of 5.54% in Nov on higher food prices

[I]  Industrial output shrinks 3.8% in October, 3rd straight month of fall

[I]  Govt must consider creating, leveraging Brand North East: World Bank report

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

13 Dec 2019

I ASKED FOR FUN; GOD MADE THURSDAY AND SAID, PLEASURE FOLLOWS FUN. WISHING A JOVIAL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Dec 2019

 

Europe sought to bolster the world's faltering battle against climate change with its "Green Deal" to slash fossil fuel dependence. British PM Boris Johnson looks on course to win election though the race has tightened markedly and he can no longer be sure of a majority, while UK house prices fall at fastest rate in seven months. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady and signalled no appetite to raise it anytime soon, while the government budget gap was 12% bigger in the first two months of the fiscal year. US Consumer prices rose at a 2.1% annual pace in November, from 1.8% in October. South Korea central bank sees decreasing uncertainties whereas Japan's Oct. machinery orders slip for fourth month, raising doubts about business spending and Argentina to hold talks with bondholders to delay debt. London, New York and Hong Kong share a troubled future although these three cities regularly dominate rankings for the world’s top financial centres, but they are located in countries that are increasingly turning nationalist, which diminishes their international appeal. A February RBI rate cut is on a knife's edge, with just under half of economists polled expecting easing at that meeting, and is highly likely by the middle of next year, according to a Reuters poll while Asian Development Bank cuts India’s growth forecast to 5.1% for FY2019 but projects 6.5% for next year. India may soon change the way it measures economic growth.  

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US hits Iran’s biggest airline and shipping group with sanctions

[I]  Lagarde faces investor scrutiny in first ECB meeting

[I]  EU unveils plan to be carbon neutral by 2050

[I]  French PM to push ahead with pensions overhaul despite strikes

[I]  Credit Suisse cuts targets after investment banking loss

[I]  China’s smaller banks forced to act to support shares

 

REUTERS

[I]  EU leaders offer money to reluctant east to push 2050 climate neutrality

[I]  Mexican businesses focus on labor provisions as they pore over USMCA trade deal text

[I]  Japan's Oct. machinery orders slip for fourth month, raising doubts about business spending

[I]  Argentine economy minister Guzman sees no fiscal tightening in 2020

[I]  South Korea central bank sees uncertainties decreasing: deputy chief

[I]  UK house prices fall at fastest rate in seven months: RICS

[I]  Reserve Bank of India February rate cut on a knife's edge: Reuters poll

[I]  UK PM Johnson heads for Brexit election win in tightening race

[I]  Europe launches 'Green Deal' as Thunberg denounces climate inaction

[I]  High-stakes White House meeting expected Thursday to debate U.S.-China tariffs - sources

[I]  Lagarde in the spotlight at first ECB meeting

[I]  China retaliatory tariffs cost billions in lost consumption: study

[I]  U.S. Core Inflation Modest in November Ahead of Fed Meeting

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Dots May Yield Clue on Split Over Pause: Decision Day Guide

[I]  Johnson and Corbyn in Final Push as Poll Gap Narrows: U.K. Votes

[I]  Here’s How Miserable 2019 Was for the Airline Industry

[I]  The Great Moscow Bank Shakedown

[I]  U.K. Housing Market in Limbo Ahead of Election, RICS Says

[I]  More Pain Looms for Asia’s Worst-Performing Bonds

[I]  Argentina to Hold Talks With Bondholders to Delay Debt

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Sees Long Pause

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the December Statement Changed From October

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Widened 12% in First Two Months of Fiscal Year

[I]  London, New York and Hong Kong Share a Troubled Future

[I]  Inflation Isn’t Likely to Take Off Anytime Soon

[I]  North American Trade Pact Could Cushion U.S. Economy

[I]  Newsletter: Tariff Delay, Fed Fizzle, and the Rise of Noncompetes

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST rates may go up for various items to meet revenue shortfall

[I]  Asian Development Bank cuts India’s growth forecast to 5.1% for FY2019; projects 6.5% for next year

[I]  WTO Appellate Body’s non-functionality could hit poorer countries more

[I]  Differential EPF rates, change in gratuity rule on the cards

[I]  GST rates may go up for various items to meet revenue shortfall

[I]  Government carrying out reforms to boost economy, says Piyush Goyal

[I]  Proposed India-EU FTA has to address labour, government

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India may soon change the way it measures economic growth

[I]  Govt clears amendments to insolvency law

[I]  US yields slip on UK election, trade uncertainty

[I]  Setback for India as WTO extends nil tax on e-transmissions

[I]  ADB trims India's GDP growth forecast to 5.1% in FY20

[I]  Prices of 20 of 22 key food items rose steadily in 2019: Consumer Affairs Ministry

[I]  Lok Sabha passes bill to set up unified body to regulate IFSCs

[I]  Cabinet clears social security pact with Brazil

[I]  Social Security Code Bill introduced in Lok Sabha

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Higher GST rate on mobiles, fabrics likely to boost revenue collection

[I]  Stressed asset buyers get protection after Cabinet clears IBC amendment

[I]  Swinging fortunes: Rich list shrinks, but top 10 add $40 billion to wealth

[I]  India's coal power usage set to shrink for the first time in 14 years

[I]  Personal data protection Bill may bring new usage consent managers: Experts

[I]  MFIs managing risk by turning to tech innovation to ensure loan repayment

[I]  Indices back to winning ways as banking, IT and auto stocks shine

[I]  Revival hopes help markets continue their winning run, absorb GDP shocker

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11995;  USDINR DGCX: 70.8425;  DJIA Mini: 27942;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7224;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23460;  EUR-USD: 1.1143; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.86;  Gold (Spot): 1475

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
12 Dec 2019