MOTHER, THE SWEETEST LOVE, IS THE NAME OF GOD ON LIPS AND HEART. WISHING THE HAPPIEST WEEKEND EVER.

Macro Economic News 11 May 2019

 

India inflation likely crept up slightly to a six-month high in April. The world’s two largest economies appear to be headed in different directions. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators failed to break an impasse following two days of globally watched trade talks, as both sides tried to prevent sentiment from deteriorating further. ECB member Nowotny expects euro-zone economy to see stronger growth in the latter half of 2019. U.S. inflation softened in April, reinforcing expectations the FED will maintain its wait-and-see posture on interest rates. U.S. debates to have a minimum wages of $15 an hour. The U.S. budget gap widened 38% in the first seven months of the fiscal year as federal spending outpaced tax collections. Cross-border investment has come under pressure as national-security concerns rise and multinationals hedge their bets.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump signals tougher line after trade talks end

[I]  Iranians on edge as stand-off with US intensifies

[I]  Surprise export growth boosts Germany

[I]  Chinese companies caught off guard by sudden US shift

[I]  China’s industrial-military hawks flex their anti-US muscles

[I]  Canada defies slowdown fears with record job growth in April

[I]  China overestimated Trump’s desperation to do a deal

[I]  UK’s smaller banks navigate tepid economic growth

 

REUTERS

[I]  China, U.S. to hold more trade talks as Trump ratchets up tariff threat

[I]  ECB's Nowotny: Euro-zone growth to strengthen in latter half of '19 - Nikkei

[I]  Instant view: U.S.-China trade talks end with deal uncertain

[I]  India inflation likely crept up to six-month high in April

[I]  ECB's Nowotny: Euro-zone growth to strengthen latter half of 2019 - Nikkei

[I]  Tame U.S. inflation seen keeping Fed on the sidelines

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Gives China a Month for Trade Deal as Talks Deadlocked

[I]  Fed Officials Warn Rising Inequality Threatens U.S.’s Long-Term Economic Strength

[I]  After Tough Winter, Canada’s Economy Shows Signs of Strength

[I]  The Trade Fight Between the U.S. and China Is Weighing on Oil Prices

[I]  These U.S. Stocks May Be Shielded as Trump’s Trade War Hits

[I]  Fed Seen as More Likely to Cut Rates After U.S. Tariff Boost

[I]  Hedge Funds Vindicated by Trade War Twists That Sank Soybeans

[I]  Canadian Dollar Looks ‘Egregiously’ Undervalued, Scotiabank Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks End Without a Deal

[I]  With Trade Deal in Jeopardy, Trump Pledges Aid to Farmers

[I]  U.S. Consumers Poised to Take the Hit From Higher Tariffs on Imports From China

[I]  Soft Underlying Price Pressures Reaffirm Fed’s Patient Posture

[I]  Push for a $15 Minimum Wage Divides Democrats

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 38% in First Seven Months of Fiscal 2019

[I]  Third of Middle Class Can’t Cover $400 Surprise Expense

[I]  Chinese-U.S. Economic Integration Frays as Trade Talks Stumble

[I]  China Trade Talks Complicate Outlook for Trade Deficit

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  At 0.1%, March industrial output hits 21-month low

[I]  Emerging, poor nations will try for consensus on WTO issues at Delhi meet

[I]  How China overtook India in growth — early start and better decisions

[I]  Universal basic income, an ethical option

[I]  Needed, a mandatory tax disclosure law

[I]  20-member CEOs’ team to visit Israel to study country’s tech ecosystem

[I]  Global black tea output up 7.60% in Q1

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt opens up on the mystery of missing firms in GDP database

[I]  Forex reserve up by $171.9 million at $418.7 billion

[I]  Industrial output contracts 0.1% in March, lowest in 21 months

[I]  Does India have a second chance to replicate China to become the global centre for manufacturing?

[I]  FMCG distributors face GST scrutiny for post-sale discounts

[I]  Agri, processed food exports up 7% in FY19

[I]  Car dealers on taxman’s radar over discounts & freebies to customers

[I]  India seeks greater access for agricultural, milk products, bovine meat in Chinese market

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  IIP contracts 0.1% in March as manufacturing sector growth slows down

[I]  Donald Trump in no hurry to sign deal with China as trade war escalates

[I]  Indian firms are most optimistic about trade, economic growth: Stuart Tait

[I]  WTO dispute settlement body to be in focus at mini-ministerial meet

[I]  US firms see no ease of doing business in India: Here're the main issues

[I]  Economic slowdown, unbranded generics growth pull down medicine sales

 

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 May 2019

TALK TO ME BEFORE YOU OVERTHINK - GOD... WISHING A BLISSFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 May 2019

 

Economists and investors are increasingly showing that they have little or no confidence in India's official economic data – presenting whoever is elected as the next prime minister with an immediate problem. The world’s two largest economies appear to be headed in different directions. Cross-border investment has come under pressure as national-security concerns rise and multinationals hedge their bets. U.S. wage growth is set to pick up over the next year, as economists expect a tight labor market will continue to push up workers’ pay. The producer-price index, a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, rose less than expected in April, signalling inflation in one pocket of the economy remains tame.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  European powers reject Iran’s nuclear ‘ultimatums’

[I]  US-China trade war leaves global economy counting cost

[I]  EU leaders split over choosing successor to Juncker

[I]  Euro is new bogeyman for Poland’s ruling party

[I]  US business frustrated as Trump reignites China trade fight 

[I]  Singapore passes bill to tackle spread of false information

[I]  Democrats’ stinginess will catch up with them

[I]  Britain’s regional divide is smaller than it appears

 

REUTERS

[I]  India, China agree to resolve market access issue 'expeditiously'

[I]  Japan's wage tumble overshadows spending growth, keeps BOJ under pressure

[I]  U.S. housing agency wants new rules to attract mortgages from banks

[I]  Recession risks prod BOJ to strengthen forward guidance in April

[I]  Oil rallies on hopes for U.S.-China trade deal

[I]  Incredulous data: Economists create own benchmarks for India

[I]  Europeans reject 'ultimatums' from Iran as it eases nuclear curbs

[I]  Japan household spending rise but wages tumble in March

[I]  Japan March real wages fall most since 2015, bad omen for domestic demand

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Yield Curve Inverts for the First Time Since March

[I]  China Is Armed With Powerful Market Weapons in Duel With Trump

[I]  The Whole 2019 Rally Is at Risk in Wall Street’s Worst-Case Trade War Mock-Ups

[I]  China's Yuan, Stocks Rise After Brutal Week as Tariff Hour Looms

[I]  RBNZ Needs 3% Economic Growth to Meet Targets, Bascand Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Chinese-U.S. Economic Integration Frays as Trade Talks Stumble

[I]  Nearly 70% of Economists Expect Faster Wage Growth Over Next Year

[I]  Fed’s Next Move Will Be Rate Cut, More Economists Say

[I]  China Trade Talks Complicate Outlook for Trade Deficit

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  U.S. Producer Prices Rose Less Than Expected in April

[I]  High Hopes for Argentina’s Revival Are Dashed

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S. Readies Tariffs, China Prepares Retaliation

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Major relief for FPIs from Mauritius, Singapore claiming DTAA treaty benefit

[I]  Tweak in insolvency resolution process to open window wider for original promoters

[I]  Inflows into equity MF schemes down 60% on market turbulence, downgrades

[I]  Real estate: Date extended for migration to new GST regime

[I]  In bid to end data debate, finance panel to reconcile numbers with RBI, CAG

[I]  PE/VC investments rose 79% in April

[I]  Congress hurled 56 abuses at PM Modi: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  Banks must turn towards global trade-finance instruments: RBI

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Economic census 2019 to include geotagged data of business enterprises

[I]  Corporate affairs ministry database fairly reliable, not a black box: Official

[I]  Economists highlight need for reducing Centre, state debt; call for new means to garner revenue

[I]  Mudra loans may cross Rs 3 lakh crore in 2019-20

[I]  Delhi's air quality severe, CPCB convenes meeting

[I]  Natural rubber production falls to second lowest levels in recent years

[I]  Net gold imports jump 27% in Jan-Mar quarter

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Slowdown in equity flows amid election result uncertainty hits MF industry

[I]  GST chink likely to increase input tax credit of real estate companies

[I]  Free unused mineral land reserved for PSUs, says mining sector

[I]  Finance Commission to 'reconcile data', come up with own conclusion

[I]  After erratic monsoon, crop damage, vegetable prices zoom on supply squeeze

[I]  Sebi questions rating agencies on valuing debt backed by promoter shares

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11345;  USDINR DGCX:70.2600;  DJIA Mini: 25894;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7234;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21565;  EUR-USD: 1.1232; Crude Oil (WTI): 61.53;  Gold (Spot): 1284

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
10 May 2019

LET OUR LIFE LIGHTLY DANCE ON THE EDGES OF TIME LIKE DEW ON THE TIP OF A LEAF. WISHING A DELIGHTFUL  DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 May 2019

 

Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged amid sluggish economic growth and expectations of slowing inflation. European Union leaders meeting to chart a way forward after the historic setback of Brexit and to have their first go at picking people to fill the bloc's top jobs later this year. Taiwan will strengthen ties with India's new government, including more official visits, despite China's continuing efforts to isolate what it considers to be a wayward province. The new hard line taken by China in trade talks came after Beijing interpreted recent statements and actions by President Trump as a sign the U.S. was ready to make concessions. The US central bank is ready to respond to climate-change related disruptions to the economy and is working to ensure banks’ resilience.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Iran warned over dangers of reviving nuclear activity

[I]  US hits Iran with sanctions on metals sectors

[I]  Trump turns the screw in US-China trade dispute

[I]  US economic strength adds power to Donald Trump’s elbow

[I]  German industrial activity points to economic resilience

[I]  Government agency reveals new gaps in India GDP data

[I]  New Zealand urged to ban foreign donations to counter Chinese

 

REUTERS

[I]  Taiwan to improve ties with India, official says, despite Chinese disfavour

[I]  Trump says Beijing 'broke' trade talk deals, pledges to keep tariffs on Chinese goods

[I]  BOJ's Kuroda: Price stability is key to market trust in yen

[I]  Damaged by Brexit, EU heads meet in Romania to chart bloc's next steps

[I]  Dollar hovers near six-week low vs. yen as U.S.-China trade talks awaited

[I]  Post-Brexit customs union would make Britain 3 percent poorer - NIESR

[I]  UK housing market shows scant sign of recovery in April: RICS

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Says China ‘Broke the Deal’ in Trade Talks With U.S.

[I]  China Retaliation Risk, Fed Rate Review, Mahathir Fail: Eco Day

[I]  Philippines Economic Growth Slows to Four-Year Low of 5.6%

[I]  Shadow Banks Feel Sting as Indian Mutual Funds Cut Debt Exposure

[I]  U.K. Property Market Still Subdued as Brexit Weighs on Prices

[I]  ‘Crazy Premiums’ for Gold Assets Are Over, Says Mining CEO

[I]  Wall Street's Muni-Bond Trading Giants Are Losing Business to Rivals

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Beijing Plays Hardball on Trade

[I]  Consumers Could Be Hit as New Front Opens in U.S.-China Trade Fight

[I]  Trade Shifts From Growth Engine to Potential Drag for China

[I]  Fed Readying Financial System for Climate-Change Shocks

[I]  Trump Considers Poverty-Gauge Change That Could Trim Rolls on Aid Programs

[I]  Delays to Brazil’s Pension Overhaul Increase Economic Concerns

[I]  Brazil Central Bank Says Economy Still Exposed to Uncertainty

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ‘Dodgy GDP numbers’ rattle markets; stocks go into free fall

[I]  Deflating prospects: Automobile dealers to go for leaner inventory to ease pain

[I]  Maharashtra math: 1 kg sugar = 2,515 litres water

[I]  Singed by downgrades, NBFCs want rating agencies reined in

[I]  Home buyers have no say in choice of GST rate: FinMin

[I]  ‘Domestic securitisation volumes at all-time high of Rs. 2-lakh cr in FY19’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Now, owners may have to pay different GST for identical flats

[I]  Dealers bear brunt of deepening auto slump

[I]  Inflation to stay low for a long time; lower interest rates to spur savings

[I]  Net gold imports jump 27% in Jan-Mar quarter

[I]  Gold gains as Trump threatens to increase tariffs on Chinese goods

[I]  India's services sector output growth at 7-month low in April: PMI

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  NSSO report on GDP data divides opinion, provides ammo to Opposition

[I]  Auto dealers see no quick recovery in slowdown, pin hope on stable govt

[I]  Last decade saw India's conglomerates score a few hits, but mostly misses

[I]  India tells US it's willing to reduce import duties on telecom equipment

[I]  States may cause fiscal slippage because of populist schemes, warns RBI

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11374;  USDINR DGCX:69.9750;  DJIA Mini: 25853;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7199;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21336;  EUR-USD: 1.1188; Crude Oil (WTI): 61.53;  Gold (Spot): 1281

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 May 2019

SIMPLE FAITH ATTRACTS GOOD PERSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES. WISHING A DAY FULL OF EMPATHY.

Macro Economic News 08 May 2019

 

The Federal Reserve identified rising sales of risky corporate debt as a top vulnerability facing the U.S. financial system, according to a new report. Any retaliatory tariff by India in response to the United States' planned withdrawal of trade privileges will not be "appropriate" under WTO rules. China is sending its top trade envoy to Washington to resume negotiations. China will keep calm against threats of higher tariffs from the United States and has "complete confidence" in its ability to face challenges in trade talks. The Reserve Bank of India will probably conduct at least one more swap of rupees for dollars after the general election, part of an effort to support economic growth.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Interest-only commercial loans hit pre-crisis level

[I]  North Korea missile tests threaten nuclear talks revival

[I]  Iran stirs fears over riposte to Trump on nuclear deal

[I]  Italy budget deficit forecast to smash EU fiscal rules

[I]  US provokes fury after blocking Arctic Council statement

[I]  EU workers miss out on gains of economic recovery

[I]  Public options key to reviving US middle class

[I]  US unemployment rate is significanlty higher than the ‘official’ figure

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. warns India against retaliatory duties over scrapping of trade privileges

[I]  Seeking to avert higher tariffs, China dispatches top negotiator to U.S.

[I]  BOJ board debated pros, cons of more easing at March meeting: minutes

[I]  Oil prices firm amid U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran, Venezuela

[I]  Japan April services PMI slips as new business growth slows

[I]  China will keep calm in face of trade talk challenges: People's Daily

[I]  Aviation is acid test for UK climate credibility

[I]  Exclusive: RBI plans more FX swaps, steps to inject cash - officials

[I]  U.S. House passes pro-Taiwan bills, amid trade tensions with China

[I]  Singapore's central bank to increase monetary policy transparency

[I]  Japan's labour shortage eats away at back-breaking work culture

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Hawks Gain Upper Hand as Trump Squeezes Beijing Over Trade

[I]  China’s Sinking Online Lenders Seek Lifeline From Big Investors

[I]  U.S. Cotton Production Expected to Reach Highest in 14 Years

[I]  New Zealand Cuts Interest Rates to Historic Low

[I]  Once Darling Consumer Stocks Turn Sour as Demand Cools in India

[I]  Krona's Plunge Shows How 2008 Crisis Is Only Just Hitting Sweden

[I]  Property Slowdown Beckons as Next Risk for Emerging Markets

[I]  China Is Dawdling on Carbon Trading

[I]  China Is Losing Its Grip on Companies Due to Trump's Trade War

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Job Openings Outnumber Americans Seeking Work for 13th Straight Month

[I]  China Agrees to Resume U.S. Trade Negotiations

[I]  Fed Readying Financial System for Climate-Change Shocks

[I]  Program to Relieve Student Debt Proves Unforgiving

[I]  Fed Vice Chairman Says U.S. Monetary Policy ‘Is in a Good Place’

[I]  Fed Flags Risky Business Debt as Vulnerability for Financial System

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S. Accuses China of ‘Reneging’ In Trade Talks

[I]  Fed’s Harker Expects One More Rate Hike in 2019 and Another in 2020

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India may be spared GSP withdrawal pain till elections are over, hints US

[I]  Cash-hungry corporates binge on ECBs, raise a record $41 billion

[I]  Another H-1B fee hike to hit Indian techies

[I]  Piramal, Canadian fund launch renewables InvIT

[I]  Renewable energy players red-flag a host of issues plaguing sector, seek govt intervention

[I]  Poor demand, fall in energy intensity choking coal

[I]  Lower domestic output will see cotton imports double to 31 lakh bales: CAI

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Don’t pay heed to commodity prophesies, they’re always wrong: Aswath Damodaran

[I]  Corporate loan growth higher than retail

[I]  If this is a tech bubble, it’s the expansionary phase

[I]  Sebi panel may recommend FPI investment in unlisted cos

[I]  RBI weighs incentives for banks to move IBC

[I]  Sebi may be asked to relax 75% promoter stake norm for PSBs

[I]  Corp bond market turmoil unlikely to dent NPS returns

[I]  US talent crunch takes IT to Canada, Mexico

[I]  For India Inc, hunt for talent goes beyond cos’ core biz

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Tariffs unjustifiably high, need level playing field: US Commerce Secretary

[I]  Realty hits green hurdle as rules bent for Ease of Doing Business in court

[I]  Kerosene subsidy bill builds up 21% to Rs 5,800 cr in FY19; LPG jumps 49.4%

[I]  Dollar-rupee swap, open market operations: RBI plans steps to inject cash

[I]  US to propose hike in H-1B application fee, Indian IT may bear the brunt

[I]  Overseas funds making investments into India directly from home countries

[I]  Pak moves a step closer to IMF bailout package after Imran overhauls team

[I]  80,000 cricket crazy Indians likely to head to England for World Cup

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11479;  USDINR DGCX:69.8425;  DJIA Mini: 26000;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7204;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21577;  EUR-USD: 1.1203; Crude Oil (WTI): 61.86;  Gold (Spot): 1287

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
08 May 2019