REJOICE. LET YOUR GENTLENESS BE KNOWN TO ALL. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 14 Jul 2018

 

India's trade deficit widened to its highest in more than five years in June, the trade ministry said on Friday, driven largely by a surge in oil prices and a weaker rupee. The Trump administration is assessing whether to dip into the U.S.’s emergency oil stocks while it pushes other countries to boost their output amid rising prices. U.S. trade deficits are matched by an inflow of foreign investment. Greg Ip says that isn't necessarily good: some foreign investment is more desirable than others.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump switches tack on Brexit in bid to repair ties

[I]  Brexit chaos puts Conservatives on the edge of a breakdown

[I]  Trump’s trade war rattles Republicans in an election year

[I]  Russia meddles in Greek town to push back the west

[I]  Russia ready to invest $50bn in Iran’s energy industry

[I]  French banks win savings account case against ECB

[I]  Activists can keep check while CEOs build sandcastles

[I]  Cyber security threats stir competition among UK tech groups

[I]  Data impel economists to leave their armchairs at last

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's trade deficit widens to more than five-year high

[I]  India's social media monitoring plan worries Supreme Court

[I]  China floods wreak havoc, block roads and railways; more rain due

[I]  Chinese imports to U.S. ports start peaking amid tariff threat

[I]  China's trade surplus with U.S. hits record as exporters rush to beat tariffs

[I]  China fiscal policy has 'ample room' to support economy: c.bank research head

[I]  Fed's escape from crisis holdings could hit dead end

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Curb Bets on Rising Oil Price Just as Rally Falters

[I]  Never Mind the VIX, Anxiety Is Everywhere in U.S. Stock Market

[I]  Emerging-Market Stocks Rebound as Trade Tension Eases: EM Review

[I]  Turkey Cut Deeper Into Junk by Fitch Citing Risks to Stability

[I]  Trump Considers Tapping U.S. Oil Reserve as Prices at the Pump Rise

[I]  Bitcoin Was Russian Hackers' Currency of Choice, U.S. Says

[I]  Trade War Sends Commodities to Biggest Drop in 5 Months

[I]  Trump's Tax Plan Has Investors Chasing Dividends Through ETFs

[I]  Oil Explorers in U.S. Heartland Need $69 Crude to Boost Drilling

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. and Allies Consider Possible Oil-Reserve Release

[I]  The Wrong Way to Defend Trade Deficits

[I]  Trump’s Criticism of May’s Brexit Plan Zeroes In on Trade Reality

[I]  Federal Reserve Report Defends Use of New Tools to Set Interest Rates

[I]  Economists Think Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low

[I]  Real Time Economics: Inflation Is Gobbling Up Worker Wages

[I]  Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says Trade Policies Complicate Outlook

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Dips Due to Tariff Concerns

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Banks pare student-loan exposure

[I]  DRI unearths Rs. 3,000-cr diamond import scam

[I]  Indians are stressed out by work, finance situation

[I]  June exports up 17.57%; trade deficit widens on import surge

[I]  India looking to take advantage of China’s retaliatory tariff on US goods

[I]  Significant Economic Presence: CBDT invites suggestions on ‘revenue/user’ cap for NRIs

[I]  Kharif sowing gathers pace, but still down 10% over last year

[I]  Rising inflation, fiscal deficit may force RBI to hike rate by 50 bps

[I]  FDI inflow slowest in past two years: Care

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India defies US, sticks to Russia missile deal

[I]  Opec+ may further boost crude oil supply, says Russia

[I]  Forex reserve dips by $248.20 million to $405.81 billion

[I]  RBI raises red flag on states' fiscal deficit, farm-loan waivers

[I]  Government extends duty benefits for exports of certain dairy, agri products

[I]  India-Afghanistan trade likely to reach $2 bn by 2020: Afghan Ambassador

[I]  Multi-pronged action plan to boost infrastructure in ports

[I]  I-T dept seeks views on significant economic presence for taxing NRIs

[I]  No GST on foreign companies' payments to liaison offices for expenses: AAR

[I]  Surging housing costs may prompt India to raise rates again

[I]  India needs more private banks and only 3-5 PSU banks: Arvind Subramanian

[I]  Australia releases India economic strategy, aims to give big push to bilateral trade

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India's trade deficit widens to five-year high in June; exports up 17.57%

[I]  Why corporate India needs to focus on mental health of its employees

[I]  Buoyed by lower import duties, Chilean fruit exporters eyeing Indian market

[I]  India-US 2+2 dialogue in September; MEA yet to confirm invite to Trump

[I]  India can overtake UK to become 5th largest economy by 2019: Arun Jaitley

[I]  Kharif sowing picks up but is still about 10% lower than last year

[I]  It's like creating surveillance state: SC on govt plan to monitor WhatsApp

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Jul 2018

BE THE AWAKENING MORNING BY MORNING, EVERY MORNING. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 13 Jul 2018

 

Yield curve flattening is hitting bond markets across Asia. Bonds in Indonesia, India and Australia are witnessing a flattening of yield curves that’s showcasing the challenges these formerly-favored markets face as dollar liquidity tightens. While Indonesia rushed to raise interest rates to stem a rout in the rupiah, continued weakness in the currency amid an emerging-market rout deepened by the U.S.-China trade war is fanning bets for further tightening. Aberdeen Standard Investments expects the nation’s yield curve to remain flat in the near term. However, India — which last month increased benchmark rates for the first time since 2014 — will probably see its curve steepening later in the year. The same is expected for Australia, with rising yields on U.S. Treasuries seen driving the nation’s long-end borrowing costs higher.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Donald Trump gives final tongue-lashing to Nato allies

[I]  US antitrust chief signals comfort with tech deals

[I]  Collateral damage predicted from US-China trade war

[I]  Theresa May unveils plans for softer Brexit

[I]  Brussels pushes ahead with migrant centres outside Europe

[I]  Economic reform risks being the loser in Brazil’s election

[I]  China denies US claims of sabotaging North Korea nuclear talks

[I]  US factories feel chilling effect of tariffs will halt revival

[I]  Europe’s steel market takes big step on consolidation

 

REUTERS

[I]  As foreign economists leave, protectionist India returns

[I]  India's falling rupee pushes retail inflation to five-month high in June

[I]  Iran says will strive to ensure oil supplies to India

[I]  China says United States trade accusations are groundless

[I]  Ousted Pakistan PM flying home to face jail, authorities lock down Lahore city

[I]  Chinese imports to U.S. ports start peaking early amid tariff threat

[I]  Chinese imports to U.S. ports start peaking early amid tariff threat

[I]  With U.S. trade under a cloud, China opens to Indian pharma

[I]  Singapore second-quarter GDP growth slows as trade tensions cloud outlook

[I]  Fed's escape from crisis holdings could hit dead end

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Peru Keeps Rate at 2.75% to Bolster Copper-Fueled Rebound

[I]  Coming Soon to an Ocean Near You: Ships Moving a Tiny Bit Slower

[I]  Trump Says May's Brexit Plan Likely to Kill Off U.S. Trade Deal

[I]  Trade War Sparks Mounting Concerns of Growth Risks: Economy Week

[I]  Americans Are Back in Asia Dollar Bond Market as Locals Struggle

[I]  China's Rising Defaults Bring More Safeguards to Yuan Bonds

[I]  U.S., China Say They Are Open to Talks Amid Escalating Trade War

[I]  Singapore GDP Growth Eases to One-Year Low as Trade Risks Mount

[I]  Peru Keeps Rate at 2.75% to Bolster Copper-Fueled Rebound

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Germany Delays Greece’s Final Bailout Payment

[I]  Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says Trade Policies Complicate Outlook

[I]  Inflation Is Eating Away Worker Wage Gains

[I]  Economists Think Unemployment Is Headed to a 50-Year Low

[I]  WSJ Survey: Economists See Fed on Autopilot

[I]  From Seafood to Mattresses: How the U.S. Tariffs Affect Businesses

[I]  China’s Effort to Control Debt Loses Steam

[I]  U.S. Government Revenues Drop in Wake of Tax Cuts

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI red-flags fiscal risks of States

[I]  Cement firms’ profits likely to crumble under cost pressure

[I]  PE investments in realty cross Rs. 59,000 cr in 2017

[I]  Indian industry must up its tech ante

[I]  PPP, paranthas and the GDP race

[I]  As banks clamp up, India Inc turns to ECBs, raises $5.2 billion in first 2 months of FY19

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  A coming war may change shopping forever

[I]  Commodity prices begin to rise on higher MSP

[I]  High yields, easier norms bring PSBs back to bond street

[I]  India could climb up to be 5th largest economy next year: Arun Jaitley

[I]  States slip on fiscal targets on farm loan waivers, GST: RBI

[I]  UK's Brexit strategy may hit plans for free trade pact with India

[I]  Australian exports to India to grow to $45 bn in 20 years, FDI to $100 bn, says report

[I]  Industry growth slips to 7-month low of 3.2% in May

[I]  Retail inflation edges up to 5% in June; IIP slips to 3.2% in May

[I]  Government sets up task force to suggest ways on reducing import dependence

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Twin shocks for economy as growth slumps, retail inflation picks up

[I]  Pricing worries weigh on agri-input stocks: Higher MSP, good rain positives

[I]  75% of under-construction infra projects delayed, no clear timeline: CARE

[I]  Slide in states' fiscal position; capital outlay to grow slower, says RBI

[I]  Jewellers find new way to bypass tax authorities and launder smuggled gold

[I]  Digital payments: Sebi bars stock brokers from accepting cash from clients

[I]  US will hit EU cars if no good faith in trade talks, says Donald Trump

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11047;  USDINR DGCX: 68.4225;  DJIA Mini: 24949;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7617;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22487;  EUR-USD: 1.1667; Crude Oil (WTI): 70.21;  Gold (Spot): 1247          

Best Regards, ARBIND

13 Jul 2018

FRESH BE THE ASSURANCE TO FLY WITH GRACE. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 12 Jul 2018

 

The finance ministry has proposed relaxing a directive from the Reserve Bank of India that would compel global payment firms to store customer data only locally, following weeks of intense lobbying by U.S. companies and trade bodies. A proposal from Prime Minister Theresa May to keep the U.K. closely tied to European Union product regulations and customs arrangements follows warnings from businesses about what they see as the risks to their carefully calibrated “just-in-time” supply chains. The Trump administration is expanding the battlefield in its trade fight with China, moving beyond industrial goods to threaten tariffs for the first time on consumer products.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump presses Nato allies to lift defence spending to 4% of GDP

[I]  Ex-Cambridge Analytica staff launch venture using same techniques

[I]  Malaysia resets China ties over ‘lopsided’ deals

[I]  Upturn in global debt to pile pressure on emerging markets

[I]  Escalating trade war shakes investors

[I]  China switches strategy to deal with Trump tariffs

[I]  Malta accused of failing to enforce EU money-laundering rules

[I]  Thailand cave rescue unites a nation and grips the world

[I]  European Investment Bank wants UK to remain a member

 

REUTERS

[I]  India proposes easing local data storage rules for foreign payment firms

[I]  China vows to hit back over U.S. proposal for fresh tariffs

[I]  India cuts Iranian oil imports in June ahead of U.S. sanctions

[I]  U.S. says the 'reckoning' over China trade is too big for WTO

[I]  China vows to hit back over U.S. proposal for fresh tariffs

[I]  OPEC does not want to see volatility in oil prices - OPEC president

[I]  Bank of Korea holds rates, weak job growth puts policymakers in a bind

[I]  After Trump's spending demands, NATO summit turns to Afghanistan

[I]  Trade and tea with queen for Trump in a Britain in "turmoil"

[I]  Setting out vision for future ties, Britain's May presses Brexit plans

[I]  China's June exports seen solid as trade war with U.S. heats up: Reuters poll

[I]  EU watchdog criticises Malta for anti-money laundering shortcomings

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. Seeks to Strike Trade Deals for Services in New Brexit Plan

[I]  Carney's Rapport With Traders Tested as Bets Build on BOE Hike

[I]  Electric Vehicle Surge Poised to Test U.K. Grid for Decades

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks Grind to a Halt

[I]  Bank of Korea Decision-Day Guide: View on Economy in Focus

[I]  Run-Up to U.S. Recession May Be Good Time for Emerging Markets

[I]  Trade War Kills Currency Volatility, Leaves Analysts Flummoxed

[I]  London House Prices Extend Decline as Demand for Property Wanes

[I]  Thailand Says Brexit Could Be Positive for Trade With the U.K.

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Average Gas Price Nears $3 a Gallon, Raising Worries for U.S. Economy

[I]  World Bank Rankings Weren’t Manipulated, Audit Shows

[I]  May’s Brexit Plan Comes Just in Time for Supply Chains

[I]  This Time Around, Chinese Consumer Products Would Face Tariffs

[I]  China Seeks Ways to Retaliate After U.S. Plans New Tariffs

[I]  U.S. Warehouse Supply at Its Tightest in Two Decades

[I]  Rising Transportation Costs Help Drive Up U.S. Business Prices

[I]  U.S. Treasury Issues Final Regulations on Inversion Transactions

[I]  Economy Brings Fed Along On Rate Rises

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI may require firms to raise 25% of financing needs from bond market

[I]  Private equity, VC investments cross $15 b in H1

[I]  GST Council meet may consider lower tax on sanitary napkins

[I]  India, US to intensify efforts to settle trade differences at meeting next week

[I]  Dumping duty on select polyester yarn from China

[I]  IT vendors ‘patently’ sharpening focus on developing newer technologies

[I]  ‘Need to promote food processing industry to help farmers’

[I]  Lending to infrastructure sector saw negative growth in the last two fiscals

[I]  MSMEs seeks alternative sources of finance

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Opec warns of trade war 'risks' for oil market

[I]  Opec sees lower 2019 demand for crude oil, points to surplus returning

[I]  Sebi plans consultation paper on secondary bond market: Tyagi

[I]  Panel shuns sugar cess proposal to clear sugarcane dues

[I]  'Aadhaar-enabled DBT savings estimated over Rs 90,000 crore'

[I]  Mumbai Trans Harbour Link to be ready by 2022: Japanese diplomat

[I]  Niti Aayog proposes 15-point action plan to deal with air pollution

[I]  Income Tax department focuses on reducing litigation

[I]  Ease of doing biz ranking: Gujarat to seek clarification from DIPP

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Sebi-appointed panel considers 'Snapchat model' to boost start-up listings

[I]  Telecom Commission approves new telecom policy, backs net neutrality

[I]  Litigation management: Govt hikes monetary limits for tax appeals

[I]  GST ministerial panel against sugar cess to compensate cane farmers

[I]  Replace old vehicles, adopt electric vehicles: NITI Aayog

[I]  Global debt hits a new record at $247 trn, $29 trn higher than end of 2016

[I]  Start reducing oil prices or expect demand to sink, India warns OPEC

[I]  May outward remittances just shy of $1 bn, up from $847 in year-ago period

[I]  India's oil imports from Iran fall over 15% in June amid US sanctions fears

[I]  Lost battle over use of oil windfall to fiscal hawks: Arvind Subramanian

[I]  How the Indian sugar industry is creating a not-so-sweet trap for itself

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10980;  USDINR DGCX: 69.0175;  DJIA Mini: 24783;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7551;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22174;  EUR-USD: 1.1674; Crude Oil (WTI): 70.79;  Gold (Spot): 1243          

Best Regards, ARBIND

12 Jul 2018