THE MOMENT WE START ACTING LIKE LIFE IS A BLESSING, IT STARTS FEELING LIKE ONE. WISHING A BLESSED WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Feb 2019

 

The Indian government pledged 750 billion rupees ($10.56 billion) to support poor farmers and reduced the tax burden for the middle class in final budget before the general election.  Tested in January by a government shutdown, market volatility and uncertainty about global growth, the U.S. labor market notched its 100th straight month of increased employment. The partial government shutdown, which closed many federal offices for a record-setting 35 days, did little to dent a robust U.S. labor market. Growth picked up for U.S. manufacturers in January, a sign strong factory-sector demand and output overrode uncertainty surrounding the partial government shutdown in the first month of the year. U.S. household sentiment fell sharply in January, as uncertain economic prospects and the partial government shutdown weighed on consumers.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US posts strong job gains in January amid shutdown

[I]  EU gives airlines deadline for no-deal Brexit

[I]  Australian boards reach 30% women target without quotas

[I]  London’s cut-price mansions: expect more deep discounts

 

REUTERS

[I]  Government steps up farm support, gives tax relief

[I]  U.S. job gains largest in 11 months; unemployment rate rises

[I]  'Good vibe' U.S.-China trade talks followed by soybean purchases

[I]  What are India's new FDI rules for e-commerce?

[I]  "Good chance" Trump will declare wall emergency

[I]  U.S. hiring surges despite government shutdown

[I]  Global Economy: Slump or slowdown? Services hold the balance

[I]  Focussed on Powell, markets missed signs Fed would pause

[I]  Pakistan inflation at 7.19 in January year-on-year: statistics bureau

[I]  Pakistan launches expatriates' bond to tackle payments crisis

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong Eyes Sea, Golf Courses to Solve Chronic Housing Crisis

[I]  Treasury Issues Investor Information on Venezuela Sanctions

[I]  PBOC's Guo Urges Better Management of Interbank Market, Reserves

[I]  Holiday Shopping Spree to Show What's Really Up With China’s Economy

[I]  Swiss Watch Industry Faces ‘Signs of Stagnation’

[I]  ‘Astonishing’ Legal Pile-Up Could Delay Brexit

[I]  M&A Surge Driven by U.S. Deals Makes for Best January Since 2000

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economy Notches 100th Straight Month of Increased Employment

[I]  Analysis: January Jobs Report Won’t Change the Fed’s New Wait-and-See Stance

[I]  Shutdown Had Little Impact on Strong Jobs Picture

[I]  During Shutdown, Federal Employees Considered Leaving Government Work

[I]  U.S. Factory-Sector Growth Accelerated in January

[I]  Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Level in More Than Two Years

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Farm moves skirt issue of ‘agrarian distress’

[I]  Some sweeteners for aam aadmi

[I]  Inflation far outstrips Section 80-C benefits

[I]  Sell 1 home, buy 2: New norms make it easy

[I]  Four policy signals from the Budget

[I]  Borrowings pegged at Rs. 55,471 cr

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Policy to promote gold as asset class with relevant ministries

[I]  Reaping in agriculture today to sow tomorrow in the economy

[I]  Direct tax collection exceeds target in FY19, pegged at Rs 13.80 lakh crore in FY20

[I]  GST collections for January expected at Rs 103,000 cr

[I]  Budget 2019: India to become $5 trillion economy in 5 years, $10 trillion in 8 years thereafter

[I]  Capturing the pulse of the nation with sense and sensitivity

[I]  Key highlights: Modi's election budget explained in 10 easy points

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Tax benefits for above Rs 5 lakh income group may be considered next: Goyal

[I]  Interim Budget has sops for voters, slips on fiscal deficit target again

[I]  Sebi issues directive to exchanges, clearing corporations using AI tools

[I]  Interim Budget 2019: Income support scheme leaves farmers unhappy

[I]  Interim Budget 2019: Tax rebate for affordable housing excites developers

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Feb 2019

WITH THIS DAY GRANTS US PATIENCE AND LOVE. WISHING A LOVELY DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Feb 2019

 

An official survey that has been withheld by the government shows India’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level in at least 45 years in 2017/18. The U.S. government January labor market report is expected to mark 100 straight months of job creation. The U.S. and China moved closer to settling their trade dispute. China’s slowing economy is taking a toll on companies in Asia, the U.S. and Europe. German central-bank discusses with European Central Bank on plans to phase out ultralow interest rates, warning that the ECB currently has little room to deal with any new economic downturn. The Canadian economy contracted slightly in November, matching market expectations, as the wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors declined. A slowing global economy and low inflation has central banks around the world rethinking plans to gradually pull back financial stimulus from markets and the banking system.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU accuses eight banks of bond market collusion

[I]  Central bank gold-buying reaches half-century high

[I]  India revises growth data as statistics are queried

[I]  European countries set up trade channel with Iran

[I]  Slowdown fears mount as eurozone growth stagnates

[I]  Italy’s faltering economy to test populists’ plans

[I]  South Korea pins hopes on start-ups to power growth

[I]  The EU needs its own digital security strategy

 

REUTERS

[I]  Unemployment at 45-year high in 2017-18: report

[I]  Creating jobs for new entrants: NITI Aayog

[I]  Businesses fear guaranteed income plan

[I]  Japan's January factory activity weakens to 29-month low as export orders tumble: PMI

[I]  Japan's jobless rate falls to 2.4 percent in December

[I]  South Korea January exports fall for second month as China woes dim outlook

[I]  British car industry warns against no-deal Brexit as investment slumps

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China May Cut Rates Today, Says Economist Who Called 2014 Move

[I]  China Offered to Slash Malaysia Rail Project Cost, Reuters Says

[I]  The Latest Victim of 2018’s Stock Rout Is the World's Largest Pension Fund

[I]  Australia’s Housing Downturn Deepens as Prices Hit 2016 Levels

[I]  Singapore Has a Shipping Rival Less Than 30 Kilometers Away

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Five Things to Watch in the January Jobs Report

[I]  Trump Gives Upbeat Assessment of Trade Talks With China

[I]  China Slowdown Hits Growth Globally

[I]  ECB’s Weidmann: Important Not to Waste Time in Normalizing Monetary Policy

[I]  Canada GDP Contracted 0.1% in November

[I]  U.S. Employment Costs Rose 0.7% in the Fourth Quarter 

[I]  Eurozone Slowdown Feeds Fears About Faltering Global Growth

[I]  Central Banks Shift on Plans to Pull Back Stimulus

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  No breather on new e-comm rules; heat on both players, customers

[I]  Interim Budget with a twist?

[I]  GST mop-up crosses Rs. 1-lakh cr in January

[I]  Core sector growth slows to 2.6% in December

[I]  Revised e-comm rules may hit online sellers, shoppers

[I]  Lesson for India Inc: ‘Any allegation must be taken seriously and quickly’

[I]  RBI launches ombudsman scheme for digital payments

[I]  Saudi Arabia making a game bid to woo the world

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Domestic gold demand dips 1.4% in 2018, up 4% globally

[I]  Opec oil output drops in January on Saudi cut, outages and sanctions

[I]  High liquidity likely to make corp bonds less risky: Icra

[I]  Modi plans to raise rural spending in Budget by 16% to woo rural voters

[I]  Govt revises FY18 GDP growth upwards to 7.2% from 6.7%

[I]  GST collections top Rs 1 lakh crore in January: Govt

[I]  Core sector output growth slows to 2.6% in December 2018

[I]  India's unemployment rate hit a 45-year high in 2017/18

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Durables shore up CG Consumer Electricals December quarter performance

[I]  CBDT notifies verification scheme for issuance of e-notices to taxpayers

[I]  Kerala Budget raises spending by 14% despite tough fiscal situation

[I]  India's core sector growth falls to 18-month low of 2.6% in December

[I]  Indian equities missed global rally in Jan on account of domestic concerns

[I]  Central banks bought highest amount of gold in 50 years in signs of turmoil

[I]  UK car exports to India register hike as Brexit-hit industry struggles

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10832;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1400;  DJIA Mini: 25048;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6925;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20906;  EUR-USD: 1.1443; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.14;  Gold (Spot): 1320

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

01 Feb 2019

AS LONG AS WE ARE MAKING THE EFFORT, GOD WILL NEVER LET US DOWN. WISHING A WINNING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 31 Jan 2019

 

The Federal Reserve indicated that it was done raising interest rates for now, fuelling a market rally. The FED monetary tightening hasn’t just paused; it may be over. As negotiators meet this week to hammer out a new U.S.-China trade deal, analysts say part of the solution is for the U.S. to sell more business services to the Chinese. GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter and will expand at a 1.8% clip this period, according to a Journal poll. Economists say a big slowdown in China and slower growth in Europe are holding back the U.S. The Treasury Department said it would scale back its borrowing plans in early 2019, after ramping up borrowing last year amid rising deficits following the $1.5 trillion tax cut.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed puts rate rises on hold as global economy slows

[I]  China to rush through new foreign investment law

[I]  Putin keeps grip on spending despite Russian anger

[I]  Berlin eyes stimulus to boost softening economy

[I]  French growth beats forecasts despite yellow vests

[I]  Farmers hope to break Argentina’s economic drought

[I]  Europe should be wary of the lure of bigger banks

 

REUTERS

[I]  China January factory activity shrinks for second month in a row: official PMI

[I]  U.S. Senate judiciary chair requests FBI briefing on arrest of Trump ally

[I]  S&P upgrades New Zealand's outlook to positive

[I]  U.S. sanctions Nicaragua’s petroleum company: U.S. national security adviser

[I]  Election worries muddy waters for bond investors in India

[I]  U.S., China launch high-level trade talks amid deep differences

[I]  U.S. private payrolls rise strongly; housing market struggling

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Manufacturing Shows Resilience Amid Trade War, Slowdown

[I]  Refiners Stung by Venezuela Sanctions Face U.S. Gulf Oil Exodus

[I]  Powell's `Patience' Is Relief for Hong Kong as Pressures Mount

[I]  Japan Factory Output Stalling After Helping Economy Rebound

[I]  Fed's Message Leaves Rate-Hike Bets Hanging, Raises Odds of Cut

[I]  Where Currency Analysts Think the Pound Will Go Next

[I]  India’s Still-Reeling Shadow Banks Face Fresh Cash Shortage Risk

[I]  New Zealand Just Found Out It Has Fewer People Than Thought

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Signals Hold on Rate Increases

[I]  The Fed’s Mysterious Pause

[I]  Shutdown Shows American Institutions Are Alive and Kicking

[I]  What Can the U.S. Sell China? Services

[I]  U.S. Economy Is Slowing, Survey Says

[I]  Treasury to Scale Back Borrowing Plans in Early 2019

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Adds 213,000 Jobs in January

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  MCA turns up the heat on India Inc; seeks annual return on loans, other receipts

[I]  ‘A choppy 2019 ahead for real estate sector’

[I]  Divestment process for Air India subsidiary likely to begin in 10 days

[I]  Uncertainty continues as May attempts to renegotiate Brexit

[I]  Brexit: ‘We are not closing borders’

[I]  More snow, rain forecast for North from fresh disturbance

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  PMO tells PSUs to pick ‘Made in India’ products

[I]  Production of horticulture crops seen at record 314.67 million tonnes in 2018-19

[I]  India Inc foreign borrowing trebles to USD 3.81 billion in December

[I]  Animal spirits tempered as waning demand hits India's economy

[I]  Getting organised: 25% of unorganised workforce may get minimum pension

[I]  Tax sops for middle class, steps on farm crisis likely in interim budget

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Unemployment rate at four-decade high of 6.1% in 2017-18: NSSO survey

[I]  How unbranded hotels are hitching a ride on branded ones for growth

[I]  How some big-ticket office deals hit a roadblock because of market delays

[I]  Govt arms DIPP with policy oversight to assume singular control over retail

[I]  Unified regulator for GIFT City, relaxations to woo AIFs on cards

[I]  VCs become choosy about start-ups: Is the Series A funding crunch back?

[I]  Possibility of communal violence in India ahead of 2019 elections: US intel

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10719;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0825;  DJIA Mini: 24987;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6893;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20740;  EUR-USD: 1.1503; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.58;  Gold (Spot): 1319

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

31 Jan 2019

MAY THIS DAY INCULCATE PATIENCE AS EVERYTHING IS COMING TOGETHER TO BLESS FOR WHATEVER BEING AWAITED FOR. WISHING A CONTENTED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 30 Jan 2019

 

Consumer confidence dropped in January for the third straight month, likely hit by political discord in Washington, in addition to market and economic uncertainty weighing on U.S. households. Home-price growth continued to ease in November, bolstering economists’ predictions that price growth could slow to be more in line with increases in incomes and inflation this year. As the U.S. and China resume high-level trade talks, President Trump sees himself with the upper hand given China’s lagging economic growth, but he and his administration face pressure to cut a deal.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UK parliament backs May plan to renegotiate Brexit deal

[I]  Norwegian announces rights issue amid finance worries

[I]  North Korea ‘unlikely’ to abandon nuclear weapons

[I]  OECD pushes global corporate tax overhaul

[I]  German army struggles to attract much-needed recruits

[I]  Trump sat down with Putin at G20 without US note-taker

[I]  China ‘rebalances’ overseas lending on debt concerns

[I]  Big Tech needs to act on concerns over ‘surveillance capitalism’

 

REUTERS

[I]  Oil dips as gloomy economic outlook outweighs Venezuela supply concerns

[I]  Japan's 10-day holiday stirs concern in traders and investors

[I]  U.S., China face deep trade, IP differences in high-level talks

[I]  Japan December retail sales up but risks to consumption, economy grow

[I]  UK parliament votes for Brexit amendment on replacing Irish backstop

[I]  Another shutdown spells deeper pain for U.S. economy: Moody's

[I]  Japan Dec retail sales up but risks to consumption, economy grow

[I]  Gold back on upward path as global growth slows: Reuters poll

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. and China Are Talking Some More, But Deal Prospects Are Still Slim

[I]  Gundlach Sees Recession Sign in U.S. Consumer Confidence Spread

[I]  Fed's Big Balance Sheet Wind-Down May Be Halfway Complete

[I]  China's Economic Woes Have Further to Spread Across Asia

[I]  Graham Pushes Trump to Add Debt Limit Increase to Border Security Talks

[I]  Venezuela Has 20 Tons of Gold Ready to Ship. Destination Unknown

[I]  U.K. Fund Managers Face New Guidelines Demanding Transparency

[I]  Brexit Will Probably Split BOE Policy Makers on How to Respond

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Plain-Spoken Fed Chairman Sometimes Leaves Markets Confused

[I]  U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines

[I]  As China Trade Talks Begin, Trump Faces Pressure to Make a Deal

[I]  Mnuchin Open to Pairing Debt Ceiling With Spending Package

[I]  Trump Won’t Act Alone to Move Fannie, Freddie Out of Government Control

[I]  Home-Price Growth Continues to Slow

[I]  CBO: Shutdown Will Cost Government $3 Billion of Projected 2019 GDP

[I]  Economic Data Faces Further Delay After Shutdown

[I]  A $4 Trillion Scapegoat for Volatility: the Fed’s Shrinking Portfolio

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Soon, policyholders can opt to get health claims in instalments

[I]  PCA norms: FinMin wants RBI to tweak the ‘returns’ metric

[I]  Gems and jewellery exporters want import duties reduced

[I]  India’s infra financing cost likely to increase: AIIB

[I]  Budget allocation for women and child development may see 20% hike

[I]  Our GDP obsession

[I]  The clean challenge is all about getting the consumer metrics right

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Centre buys 52.83 lakh tonnes of pulses, oilseeds under PSS so far

[I]  Income support scheme to cost Rs 1.5 trillion a year

[I]  Game of finance: Laws have moved, what about actors?

[I]  Much pressure on RBI to part with reserves ahead of elections

[I]  Budget 2019: Tax sops and great expectations

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  We are not anti-bundling, but want to give consumers choice: Trai chairman

[I]  38 more cities to get diesel at doorstep as 3 OMCs plan to extend service

[I]  With focus on volume growth, FMCGs to put price hike in cold storage

[I]  Income support better option than loan waivers, says India Ratings

[I]  Govt likely to water down conditions for prosecution under CSR rules

[I]  Promoters of BSE 500 firms raise number of pledged shares by 23% in 2018

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10703;  USDINR DGCX: 71.5700;  DJIA Mini: 24612;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6808;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20579;  EUR-USD: 1.1437; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.47;  Gold (Spot): 1313

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 Jan 2019