MAY THE END OF MAY MAGNIFY MERRY MOMENTS. WISHING AN EXPANDED WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 30 May 2020

Protectionism spreads globally with coronavirus as leading market economies are erecting new walls against foreign investment and suspicious trade practices, spurred by coronavirus-triggered economic upheaval and China’s increasing assertiveness. U.S. consumer spending, the U.S. economy’s main engine, fell by a record 13.6% in April during coronavirus lockdowns, but there are signs suggesting damage from the crisis is starting to ease. FED ramps up deliberations on asset purchases to assist an economy in a deeper hole than it faced after the 2008 financial crisis at a time when their tools might have less zip. With the collapse in household spending Canadian economic output plunged by a near record 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, while Brazil’s first-quarter GDP falls 1.5%. Deflation fears as Eurozone price growth falls to four-year low and UK helps employers with slow phase-in of job shield costs.

India's economy grew 3.1% in the January-March quarter and 4.2% in FY20 compared with the same period last year, the slowest growth in at least eight years, while output of 8 core sectors contracts by 38.1% in April. Bank credit shrinks 1.2% in April with gross bank credit falling to Rs 91.53 trillion whereas GST hike in non-essential items is ruled out.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Powell says Fed ‘strongly committed’ to helping US economy

[I]  Sound the trumpet! Debt jubilees have arrived

[I]  Brazil’s first-quarter GDP falls 1.5% as Covid-19 cases climb

[I]  Sweden snubbed as Norway and Denmark open borders

[I]  Deflation fears as eurozone price growth falls to four-year low

REUTERS

[I]  India economy slows in March quarter, with worse to come

[I]  April infrastructure output contracted 38.1%

[I]  India's Foreign Ministry asks some officials to quarantine after two positive for virus

[I]  UK helps employers with slow phase-in of job shield costs 

[I]  Record drop in U.S. consumer spending as Americans stay home

[I]  Canada GDP in April fell a record 11% as COVID-19 shutters economy

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Says Fed Crossed Red Lines When Virus Demanded Action

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Plunges While Stimulus Boosts Incomes

[I]  Australia Will Urge States to Scrap Payroll Tax, Treasurer Says

[I]  Argentina Weighs Deadline Extension With Debt Positions Closer

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Consumers Spent a Lot Less, Saved More During April Lockdowns

[I]  Federal Reserve Ramps Up Deliberations on Asset Purchases, Rate Guidance

[I]  Fed’s Kaplan Says Strong Virus-Testing Regime Needed to Boost Confidence

[I]  Protectionism Spreads Globally With Coronavirus

[I]  Fed Discloses Holdings of $1.3 Billion in ETFs

[I]  Canada GDP Fell at Near Record 8.2%

[I]  Easing Unemployment Claims Show Slower Pace of Virus-Related Layoffs

[I]  White House Won’t Issue Economic Projections This Summer

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST hike in non-essential items ruled out

[I]  Pandemic pain: Output of 8 core sectors contracts 38.1% in April

[I]  Power Ministry prepares ₹3 lakh crore scheme for Discom reforms

[I]  Fiscal deficit for 2019-20 at 4.6%

[I]  Growth pangs: Q4 GDP growth slows to 3.1%; FY20 clocks 4.2%

[I]  Twin depression alert in Arabian Sea as monsoon draws closer

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US ends relationship with WHO, fires first shot against China

[I]  Lockdown may be confined to 13 cities

[I]  Forex reserves soar to record high of $490.04 billion

[I]  Debt market’s love for G-Secs & PSU papers is here to stay

[I]  Invest India holds virtual panel discussion for global investors

[I]  India’s GDP growth in Q4 & FY20 sinks to 11-year low

[I]  GDP growth at 3.1% in Q4 drags full year FY20 growth to 4.2 per cent

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Over to states as next phase of lockdown set to kick in

[I]  Agriculture, mining saved Indian economy in FY20; manufacturing bites

[I]  At 6.1%, growth in per capita income slows: Explained in numbers

[I]  Bank credit shrinks 1.2% in April, gross bank credit falls to Rs 91.53 trn

[I]  UK plans new 5G club of 10 democracies, including India, says report

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 May 2020 

ENDEARING IS THE CUTE GORGEOUS JOY. WISHING A DELIGHTFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 29 May 2020

 

Monsoon rains forecast to arrive on India's southern coast around June 1. GDP data out later today is expected to show India's economy grew at its slowest pace in at least two years in the March quarter as the pandemic weakened already declining consumer demand and private investment. India's economy seen slowing rapidly in March quarter, with worse to come with S&P forecasting Indian economy shrinking by 5 per cent during FY21 while projects worth Rs 21.11 lakh cr at a standstill in red zone districts. US jobless claims top 40m as economy struggles to reopen. Easing unemployment claims show slower pace of virus-related layoffs while U.S. workers filed fewer unemployment applications for the eighth straight week, but the level of claims remained 10 times higher than before the pandemic. U.S. economy contracted 5% in the first quarter, slightly steeper than initially estimated, and a key measure of corporate profits weakened as coronavirus-related shutdowns began to come into effect. French jobless numbers surge as Europe limps out of lockdown while Spain to push through minimum income guarantee to fight poverty. Japan finance minister sees fiscal situation worsening as virus hits tax revenue while Japan's jobless rate rises to 2.6% in April whereas U.K. business confidence worst since 2008 even as lockdown eases.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU recovery fund faces prodigious hurdles to reach consensus

[I]  French jobless numbers surge as Europe limps out of lockdown

[I]  Spain to push through minimum income guarantee to fight poverty

[I]  France further eases coronavirus lockdown

[I]  US jobless claims top 40m as economy struggles to reopen

[I]  China’s top cobalt producer halts buying from Congo miners

[I]  Britain’s Brexiters still do not understand Europe

[I]  Bank of England’s recovery forecasts are narrow

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's economy seen slowing rapidly in March quarter, with worse to come

[I]  Monsoon rains forecast to arrive on India's southern coast around June 1

[I]  U.S. senators offer bill to prepare for the next pandemic

[I]  Japan's factory, retail sectors slump as pandemic hits auto sector

[I]  France to open bars and beaches in second phase of easing lockdown

[I]  Japan finance minister sees fiscal situation worsening as virus hits tax revenue

[I]  Oil prices fall as U.S. fuel demand remains weak

[I]  Japan's jobless rate rises to 2.6% in April - government

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Japan Is Going for Broke. Minus the Broke Part

[I]  U.S. Corporate Bond Sales Smash Record, Soaring Over $1 Trillion

[I]  What We Learned From China’s Annual Economic Policy Meeting

[I]  U.K. Business Confidence Worst Since 2008 Even as Lockdown Eases

[I]  Argentina’s New Debt Offer Shortens Payment Delay to Two Years

[I]  A $2 Trillion Debt Deluge Is Set to Flatten Japan’s Yield Curve

[I]  China Backs China in $15 Trillion Market Resilient to Turmoil

[I]  Japan Bankruptcies Seen Rising to Seven-Year High on Virus

[I]  Japan’s Long Deflation Battle Is Warning for Post-Virus World

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Easing Unemployment Claims Show Slower Pace of Virus-Related Layoffs

[I]  U.S. Economy Contracted 5% in the First Quarter as Coronavirus Hit

[I]  Coronavirus Is Buying Time on Climate Change. Will We Make Use of It?

[I]  White House Won’t Issue Economic Projections This Summer

[I]  Williams Doesn’t See Fed’s Support of Economy Causing Inflation Surge

[I]  As Lockdowns Are Lifted, Slow Return to Normality Begins

[I]  Newsletter: How Long Until the Labor Market Recovers?

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Aggressive infra spending is key to reversing pandemic impact, says CARE report

[I]  Goyal exudes optimism, says exports may emerge from April’s steep fall in 2 months

[I]  Air India employee unions write to PM asking for Rs 50,000 crore financial package for the airline

[I]  Why the demand for hyperlocal delivery will continue post-Covid

[I]  Co-working space providers redraw strategies for post-Covid world

[I]  Indian economy to shrink by 5 per cent during FY21, says S&P

[I]  Micro and small-scale industrial units feel orphaned; seek urgent government intervention

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Lending pressure may push banks to the brink

[I]  FDI in India jumps 13% to record $49.98 billion in 2019-20

[I]  India's economy seen slowing rapidly in March quarter, with worse to come

[I]  Monsoon rains forecast to arrive on India's southern coast around June 1

[I]  Indian economy to contract 5% in FY21, says S&P assuming COVID-19 peak by third quarter

[I]  Projects worth Rs 21.11 lakh cr at a standstill in red zone districts: Report

[I]  Revenue loss and labour top worries

[I]  After 41 yrs, Centre set to redefine ‘migrant workers’

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India Inc reaches for pink slips as cash flow dries up

[I]  IT firms to face heat as global enterprises put digital projects on hold

[I]  FM Sitharaman launches scheme for instant allotment of online PAN

[I]  Govt notifies revised Form 26AS, to have purchase info of shares, property

[I]  Collapse of commercial papers volume puts debt schemes at risk: Ind-Ra

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9388;  USDINR DGCX: 75.9450;  DJIA Mini: 25336;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6163;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21850;  EUR-USD: 1.1094; Crude Oil (WTI): 33.20;  Gold (Spot): 1720

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
29 May 2020

REJOICE THE TENDERNESS WITH THE SMILE. WISHING AN ADORABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 May 2020

 

Businesses are witnessing early signs of recovery in recent week although economic activities continue to decline amid the pandemic whereas employers are making plans to allow many of their staffers to continue working remotely. EU proposed an $824 billion recovery plan and a $1.2 trillion budget over the next seven years, which, if approved, would deepen its economic union in a way that even the eurozone debt crisis failed to achieve. The stock market and consumer sentiment are telling different stories. Stocks have rebounded dramatically off their March lows, while consumer sentiment is hovering near the lowest level in nearly a decade. The divergence is one of many realities investors are struggling to reconcile. RBA negates the possibility of negative rates and extra QE in Australia as economy reopens.   

Former RBI governor opines India’s GDP growth may rebound to 5% in FY22, although the world’s biggest lockdown is expected to push 12 million into poverty whereas Jobseekers are hopeful despite the gloom. With migrants states are now focusing on job creation and Bihar is leading the way.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Brussels wants €750bn borrowing power to fund virus recovery

[I]  US drone delivery service takes flight to battle coronavirus

[I]  Coronavirus hit to eurozone set to dwarf financial crisis

[I]  Global energy spending to fall $400bn due to coronavirus crisis

[I]  ‘Lockdown generation’ faces sweeping job losses

[I]  British Land shows it’s retail landlords not office owners under threat

[I]  Business will be the loser in the US-China fight

 

REUTERS

[I]  Exclusive: India may need to pump $20 billion into coronavirus-hit state banks -sources

[I]  Worst might be over for UK hiring slump - survey

[I]  Negative rates, extra QE unlikely in Australia as economy reopens: RBA

[I]   Philippines task force backs easing one of world's toughest lockdowns

[I]  Australia economic downturn to be less severe than initially feared - RBA

[I]  U.S. businesses hammered by pandemic but see some green shoots, Fed says

[I]  U.S. weighs options 'across the spectrum' to punish China over Hong Kong

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Catalogs Devastation Wrought by Pandemic on U.S. Economy

[I]  A Radical Plan, and $2.6 Trillion, Brings Europe Back From Abyss

[I]  Bank of Korea Cuts Rates to Record Low in Bid for Recovery

[I]  Hong Kong Autonomy Revoked, Fed Yield Target, EU Rescue: Eco Day

[I]  U.K. Companies Can’t Afford to Top Up Furloughed Workers’ Pay

[I]  Stimulus Plans Crucial in European Race to Lure Investors

[I]  Mexico Risks Deepest Crash Since 1932, Central Bank Warns

[I]  BOE’s Bailey Says U.K. Faces Risk of Longer, Harder Recovery

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  New York Starts Mapping Out the Road Back From Coronavirus—and It’s Long

[I]  U.S. Businesses See Few Signs of Recovery Through Mid-May

[I]  As Lockdown Rules Ease, Some Want to Keep Working From Home

[I]  Fed’s Williams: Economy May Be Bottoming As Fed Weighs Yield-Curve Control

[I]  EU Plans $2 Trillion Coronavirus Response Effort

[I]  The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Medical masks, gloves, PPE makers pitch for resumption of exports

[I]  Exporters want to attract buyers from US, Europe who are moving away from China

GDP growth may rebound to 5% in FY22: Former RBI governor

[I]  Your demands are duly examined, Commerce Minister assures industry

[I]  Locusts threaten cotton crop in the North

[I]  Government considering to bring natural gas under GST: Petroleum Secretary

[I]  Arabian Sea to soon host twin low-pressure areas

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  World’s biggest lockdown to push 12 mn into poverty

[I]  Jobseekers are hopeful despite the gloom

[I]  Data in hand, Bihar moves to create jobs

[I]  Two more states opt out of PM crop insurance scheme

[I]  April manufacturing IIP to contract by 50-60 per cent: Report

[I]  Government tracks package rollout to gauge impact on ground

[I]  Donations by firms under PM-CARES to qualify as CSR activity

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt to discontinue 7.75% taxable savings bonds scheme from May 28

[I]  FMCG capacity utilisation surges to 70-75% as lockdown curbs ease

[I]  Sebi unlikely to give result disclosure waiver to India Inc for Q1FY21

[I]  State Bank of India slashes FD rate by 40 bps, second cut in May

[I]  Labour pains: Thane's MSMEs operating at 10-15% capacity amid lockdown

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9321;  USDINR DGCX: 76.0925;  DJIA Mini: 25682;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6195;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21810;  EUR-USD: 1.1012; Crude Oil (WTI): 31.74;  Gold (Spot): 1713

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
28 May 2020