BLESSED ARE WE, BEING ALIVE, TO REJOICE THIS SPECIAL DAY - SATURDAY. WISHING A CELEBRATING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 15 Feb 2020

 

IMF chief hopes for global policy response to mitigate coronavirus impact while recommending a coordinated economic action. The slide of so many bond yields below zero may cost pension funds and other institutional investors a trillion dollars this year. Europe’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record high in 2019, a rise that risks drawing the ire of President Trump, who recently renewed threats to place tariffs on EU goods if the bloc didn’t agree to a new deal. Germany's president took an indirect swipe at Trump in accusing Washington, China and Russia of stoking global mistrust and insecurity with a "great powers" competition" that could threaten a new nuclear arms race. American shoppers increased their spending while U.S. industrial output fell in January, driven down by unseasonably warm temperatures and a halt in production at Boeing. Indian WPI inflation accelerates to 10-mth high of 3.1% while exports contract for sixth straight month shooting trade deficit up, although services export rises by 11.6% to $20 bn compared with imports rise of 10.3% in Dec. India is to woo businesses to Kashmir in investment meet while FM assures the industry of being open to tweaking Budget to address concerns. IMF highlights India’s urgent need of more ambitious structural and financial sector reform measures and a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy due to the rising debt levels while ensuring a more accommodative fiscal stance in the Budget.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump to raise tariffs on European aircraft imports

[I]  Inside the IMF’s outrageous, improbably successful Jamaican programme

[I]  US industrial production falls on warm weather, Boeing woes

[I]  Eurozone economy suffers slowest growth in 7 years

[I]  German economy has flatlined and coronavirus could deal further blow

[I]  US retail sales edge upwards in January

 

REUTERS

[I]  Supreme Court orders telcos to clear dues by March 17

[I]  Beijing quarantines returning residents as China struggles to pick up economy

[I]  Trump to woo Indian executives during New Delhi visit

[I]  India to woo businesses to Kashmir in investment meet

[I]  Vietnam looks to India to ease virus hit to farm exports

[I]  Indian pulse imports could drop 60% - trade

[I]  IMF chief hopes for global policy response to mitigate coronavirus impact

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Charting the Global Economy: Angst Over Coronavirus Mounts

[I]  A Top 1% Fund Manager Describes His Approach to Picking Stocks

[I]  OPEC+ Close to Dropping Early Meeting Idea as Russia Balks

[I]  Hedge Funds Join Forces to Prepare for Argentina Debt Talks

[I]  IMF Chief Says Virus May Warrant Coordinated Economic Action

[I]  Consumers, Factories Send U.S. Economy Off to Tepid 2020 Start

[I]  Funds Face Trillion-Dollar Hit on Negative-Yielding Debt Pile

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Picks Up, While Manufacturing Declines

[I]  U.S. Industrial Production Sputtered in January

[I]  Consumer Sentiment Climbs

[I]  That Valentine’s Day Dinner Will Cost More This Year

[I]  Trump’s Tariff Threats Are Tested by Europe’s Record Trade Surplus

[I]  Newsletter: Tame Inflation, Surging Coronavirus, German Stagnation

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India needs more ambitious structural, financial sector reform measures: IMF

[I]  Textile industry told to diversify to polyester to boost exports

[I]  Goods exports dip 1.6% to $25.97 b in Jan; trade deficit at $15.17 billion

[I]  Trends in MSME sector growth in Tamil Nadu

[I]  Goods exports dip 1.6% to $25.97 b in Jan; trade deficit at $15.17 billion

[I]  India, US yet to resolve issues for trade deal

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Save more, work long, expect less: Welcome to upside-down world

[I]  FPIs draw plan B to avoid proposed tax rule

[I]  Forex reserve surges to record $473 billion

[I]  Exports contract for 6th straight month, drop 1.66 per cent in January; trade deficit widens

[I]  India, Portugal ink seven pacts after Modi-Sousa talks

[I]  India's 2020-21 pulses import may fall by 50% if government doesn't extend import quotas, says IPGA

[I]  Maharashtra loses top slot as attractive investment destination to Andhra in FY’19: RBI study

[I]  January wholesale inflation quickens on fuel, manufactured products

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Merger of 10 public sector banks: Cloud hangs over April 1 deadline

[I]  Common portal for health insurance claim settlements on the cards

[I]  WPI inflation accelerates to 10-mth high of 3.1% on costlier onion, potato

[I]  Export of services rises 11.6% to $20 bn in Dec; imports up 10.3%

[I]  Exports contract for sixth straight month, trade deficit shoots up

[I]  Open to tweaking Budget to address concerns of the industry, says FM

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
15 Feb 2020

THIS SPECIAL DAY, LET US ALL ACKNOWLEDGE EVERYTHING - TOUCHING THE HEART, LOVING THE SOUL. WISHING A DREAM DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Feb 2020

 

The US consumer-price index rose at a slowing rate of seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January whereas Indian inflation hit 8.6% - almost six years high. Economists eye silver lining in India's rising rural inflation numbers while CEA hope that retail inflation is likely to moderate by July. China woes go global. An economic slowdown in China is set to contribute to a fall in oil demand, first time in over a decade, in the first three months of the year. Coronavirus hits global tourism industry as Chinese stay home grounding two-thirds of Chinese airlines’ planes. Japan's policymakers brace for fourth-quarter GDP slump while Reuters poll suggests Chinese economy is set to recover soon. While China has pumped billions of dollars into its financial system, raised expectations of an interest-rate cut and pledged to cut red tape to address the economic impact, economists say the outbreak defies traditional prescriptions. China’s overseas energy financing plummets to lowest in a decade while Fed is to withdraw more liquidity than expected amid funding calm whereas French unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low. Even as traditional media faces headwinds, print advertising has defied global trends and registered growth in India. Though, globally, the volume of print advertising in all major markets has been declining. IMF's David Lipton says that automation is likely to kill 9% jobs in India and warning over India's rising debt whereas I-T dept lines up Rs 1-trillion PSU tax row under 'Vivad se Vishwas Bill'.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UK university pension fund shutters stockpicking team

[I]  French unemployment hits fresh post-crisis low

[I]  Trump emboldened to seek vengeance after acquittal

[I]  Brussels targets ‘black box’ of online political adverts

[I]  Spain welcomes post-Brexit chance for Gibraltar talks

[I]  Coronavirus hits global tourism industry as Chinese stay home

[I]  Two-thirds of Chinese airlines’ planes grounded over coronavirus

 

REUTERS

[I]  Economists eye silver lining in India's rising rural inflation numbers

[I]  Japan's policymakers brace for fourth-quarter GDP slump, growing coronavirus risks

[I]  PM Johnson asserts control over UK government, finance minister quits

[I]  Chinese economy clobbered by coronavirus but set to recover soon - Reuters poll

[I]  Japan's fourth-quarter GDP likely weaker than in third-quarter - economy minister

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore Woos World’s Biggest Money Managers With New Law

[I]  China Woes Go Global, Japan’s Slump, U.K. in Disarray: Eco Day

[I]  Emerging-Market Bonds Have Edge Over Stocks on Coronavirus Risks

[I]  After Year at Sea, Oil Caught in Venezuelan Tug-Of-War Finally Docks

[I]  Woes Deepen for China Tech Champion Facing March Debt Payments

[I]  Thai Agriculture Reels From Drought in Blow to Ailing Economy

[I]  Fed to Withdraw More Liquidity Than Expected Amid Funding Calm

[I]  Japan’s GDP Set for Biggest Hit Since 2014 Ahead of Virus

[I]  China’s Overseas Energy Financing Plummets to Lowest in a Decade

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Path to Confirmation Dims for Fed Nominee After Republican Objections

[I]  Drop in Energy Prices Slowed U.S. Inflation in January

[I]  China’s Economic Stimulus Faces New Test in Coronavirus

[I]  Fed’s Williams: 2019 Rate Cuts Positioned Economy for Growth

[I]  Drug Prices Suppressed Overseas, White House Study Finds

[I]  Oil Demand Expected to Shrink for First Time in Over a Decade

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Print advertising still on a high: Madison report

[I]  New fiscal committee to be constituted in a day or two, says Finance panel chief

[I]  Retail inflation: Why your grocery bill could remain high

[I]  ‘India’s dependence on fossil fuels will continue to be high ’

[I]  Electronics industry fears supply disruptions, production cuts, price rise due to Coronavirus

[I]  Retail inflation likely to moderate by July: CEA

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  IMF sounds an alert over India's rising debt

[I]  CEA: Spike in retail inflation transitory

[I]  Veg oil imports down 6% at 11.96 lakh tonnes in January 2020

[I]  Indian companies make hay as China stays away from bond markets

[I]  India-US trade deal talks on, poll may put pact down to wire

[I]  Economists eye silver lining in India's rising rural inflation numbers

[I]  ESIC proposes amendments to ensure better implementation of scheme

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Box office report: Indian cinema has a happy story in rising ticket sales

[I]  I-T dept lines up Rs 1-trillion PSU tax row under 'Vivad se Vishwas Bill'

[I]  Coronavirus scare: Indian firms step up dollar-raising as China goes slow

[I]  Automation likely to kill 9% jobs in India, says IMF's David Lipton

[I]  No customs duty on imported solar cells and modules, says ministry

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12185;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3875;  DJIA Mini: 29457;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7403;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23667;  EUR-USD: 1.0836; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.38;  Gold (Spot): 1575

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
14 Feb 2020

GOD KISSES YOU WITH HIS MOST WONDERFUL LOVE. WISHING AN AFFECTIONATE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Feb 2020

 

India’s annual retail inflation accelerated to its highest level in nearly six years, while industrial output unexpectedly contracted, showing that Asia’s third-largest economy remains troubled. Indian firms issue record dollar bonds in first six weeks of 2020 while govt mulls direct method to make registering a company online to be easier. Argentina economy chief warns of ‘deep debt restructuring’ whereas New Zealand won’t rush to raise rates being comfortable with more inflation. Powell sees low rates, crisis-era tools, as facts of life for fed. EU adds Cayman Islands to tax haven blacklist while Eurozone outlook dented by industrial output drop. Coronavirus sends ripples through global economy. It will likely dampen U.S. economic growth in the first quarter, according to a survey of economists. The U.S. budget gap totalled $389 billion from October through January, compared with $310 billion in the same period a year earlier, the U.S. Treasury Department said.  The U.S. government will forgive $207.4 billion in student debt for Americans who take out loans over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office said, with the biggest benefits going to borrowers who attend graduate or professional school.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Patents reveal extent of China’s digital currency plans

[I]  Eurozone outlook dented by industrial output drop

[I]  Coronavirus sends ripples through global economy

[I]  Switzerland halts 5G rollout over health concerns

[I]  EU adds Cayman Islands to tax haven blacklist

[I]  Eastern Europe gives more to the west than it gets back

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's January retail inflation rises to 7.59%

[I]  December industrial output contracts 0.3%

[I]  Investors from five countries eye Mexico's nascent lithium market

[I]  UK to make social media platforms responsible for harmful content

[I]  Trump's Fed nominees make opening pitches to Senate panel 

[I]  Analysts cut China's gas demand estimates as virus outbreak weighs 

[I]  Despite $1 trillion deficits, Trump tax cuts will still 'pay for themselves' - Mnuchin

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Stimulus Shot, Fed Crisis Tools, German Recession: Eco Day

[I]  New Zealand Won’t Rush to Raise Rates, Comfortable With More Inflation

[I]  IMF Sees China Rebounding From Virus, Though Uncertainty Is High

[I]  Argentina Economy Chief Warns of ‘Deep Debt Restructuring’

[I]  U.S. Weighs Higher Tariff Ceilings in Bid for More Sway Over WTO

[I]  Powell Sees Low Rates, Crisis-Era Tools as Facts of Life for Fed

[I]  IMF to Offer Lebanon Advice on Handling Financial Crisis

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Central Banks Adopt Cautious Outlook on Coronavirus

[I]  WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 25% in First Four Months of Fiscal 2020

[I]  Trump and His Budget Aren’t on the Same Page

[I]  Watchdog Warns 2020 Census Isn’t Ready

[I]  U.S. Student Debt Forgiveness to Total $207 Billion in Next Decade

[I]  Newsletter: Fewer Job Openings, More Labor Unrest

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Officials move to recover ₹46,000 cr interest on delayed GST payment

[I]  Retail inflation surges to 7.59% in January; industrial growth contracts 0.3% in December

[I]  Non-subsidised LPG cylinder price hiked by ₹146.38 across metros

[I]  Coronavirus spread to shrink India auto production by 8.3% 

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Nod for Direct Tax amnesty scheme to cover DRTs

[I]  Indian cos emerge from NBFCs' shadows

[I]  Sleeping giant awakens? Downside risks for euro grow

[I]  Indian firms issue record dollar bonds in first six weeks of 2020

[I]  India clocks record foodgrain production in 2018-19

[I]  India-US trade deal talks on, poll may put pact down to wire

[I]  Double blow to economy: Factory output shrinks, retail inflation surges to near 6-year high

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India's IT giants see product-led growth strategy as next big opportunity

[I]  Govt makes tax dispute resolution scheme attractive, expands scope

[I]  Registering a company online to be easier as govt mulls direct method

[I]  PSU general insurers continue to lose market share, merger plan stuck

[I]  Simplifying regime to make tax harassment 'a thing of the past': Modi

[I]  Dec quarter shows much-needed improvement in asset quality for PSU banks

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12218;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4450;  DJIA Mini: 29551;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7473;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23876;  EUR-USD: 1.0871; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.37;  Gold (Spot): 1574

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Feb 2020

COMFORT ‘EM WITH A HUG; ENOUGH FOR ENOUGH UNSAID. WISHING A TREASUROUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Feb 2020

 

Indian economic growth, as per govt advisor, is poised to bounce back after slipping to a more than six-year low of 4.5% in the July-September quarter as the government has taken measures to prop up investments and consumer demand while FM Sitharaman assures that economy not in trouble; green shoots visible. U.S. household debt exceeds $14 trillion for the first time with a total credit-card balances increase of $46 billion, well above the previous peak seen before the 2008 financial crisis. Labor unrest reached its highest level since 2001, a signal that a solid U.S. economy motivated unions to take a harder line with employers. New coronavirus cases are lowest since January but experts disagree over peak. Bankers in Asia brace for a virus-related deal drought whereas India moves to yield curve control as rate cuts fail to deliver. Govt to lift FPI cap on some sovereign bonds while India Inc's foreign investment jumps 40% to USD 2.10 bn in January. India is out of US’ developing nations list for trade benefits though Trump says he would sign Indian trade pact if it was right.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Barnier rebuffs UK pitch for ‘permanent equivalence’

[I]  Trump’s Middle East peace plan falls flat for Netanyahu

[I]  China sets up national laboratory for advanced policing

[I]  ‘Global Britain’ needs to fix its visa process

[I]  Germany and Europe need a revitalised CDU

 

REUTERS

[I]  Economic growth set to bounce back: adviser

[I]  New coronavirus cases lowest since January but experts disagree over peak

[I]  Trump says he would sign Indian trade pact if it was right

[I]  Bankers in Asia brace for a virus-related deal drought

[I]  Saudi-Qatar talks to end lengthy Gulf dispute falter - sources

[I]  Irish central bank warns against post-election spending splurge

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Prolonged Slide in Financial Health of Indian Firms Comes to End

[I]  RBNZ Signals It’s Done Easing Rates Unless Virus Hits Growth

[I]  Korean Jobless Rises For Fifth Month Amid Manufacturing Woes

[I]  World-Beating Indonesian Bond Rally Falters on Virus Impact

[I]  India Moves to Yield Curve Control as Rate Cuts Fail to Deliver

[I]  Powell Says Fed Will ‘Never’ Declare Victory on Full Employment

[I]  BOE Joins Debate on Financial Rules Amid U.K.-EU Brexit Clash

[I]  Argentina Delays Bond Payment, Says It Won’t Be ‘Held Hostage’

[I]  U.S. Household Debt Exceeds $14 Trillion for the First Time

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Watching Risks of Broader Coronavirus Disruptions

[I]  Companies Shifted Income to Maximize U.S. Tax-Rate Cut

[I]  Work Stoppages Reach Highest Level in Nearly Two Decades

[I]  Credit-Card Debt in U.S. Rises to Record $930 Billion

[I]  Trump Deficit Forecast Is Built on Shaky Assumptions, Experts Say

[I]  Fed Officials Weigh Risks of Covid-19

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SC stays extension of deadline for filing annual GST returns

[I]  Economy back on the rails, government pumping fuel into all engines: Finance Minsiter

[I]  India seeks WTO members’ views on draft quality norms for toys

[I]  Electric two and three wheelers to zoom ahead in the next 4 years: Crisil

[I]  ‘72 lakh hectares of farmland hit by floods and drought’

[I]  Gem, jewellery exports dip 9 per cent to $2.96 billion in January on lower demand

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  What Donald Trump could be packing for his 1st trip to India

[I]  Govt to lift FPI cap on some sovereign bonds

[I]  India Inc's foreign investment jumps 40% to USD 2.10 bn in January

[I]  India out of US’ developing nations list for trade benefits

[I]  Economy not in trouble; green shoots visible: FM Sitharaman

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  'Sick' pharma PSU offers to step in to reduce China drug dependence

[I]  Commercial vehicles, two-wheelers likely to see a smooth drive from H2

[I]  Realty firm under insolvency can continue to complete other projects: NCLAT

[I]  Lower duties for agri goods on cards as US confirms Donald Trump visit

[I]  Medical devices to be treated as drugs from the next financial year

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12160;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4025;  DJIA Mini: 29256;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7499;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23813;  EUR-USD: 1.0916; Crude Oil (WTI): 50.60;  Gold (Spot): 1568

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
12 Feb 2020