WE ARE NEVER TOO OLD TO DREAM A NEW DREAM. WISHING A MAGICAL WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 27 Apr 2019

 

Surging global oil prices will pose a first big challenge to India's new government, whoever wins an election now under way, especially as domestic prices have been allowed to lag, meaning consumers are in for a painful surge as they catch up. The U.S. economy roared back in the first quarter, growing at a rapid pace of 3.2% despite multiple headwinds, suggesting the current expansion has more room to run amid its 10th year. Trump’s top economist said he is optimistic about the economy’s prospects in 2019 after a stronger-than-expected report on gross domestic product in the first quarter. Consumers’ outlook for the U.S. economy softened slightly in April even though it remained historically high. Trump expressed optimism for a new trade deal with Japan, but said Japanese tariffs on U.S. farm products must be lifted and suggested the U.S. could use levies on Japanese cars as leverage.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US economy surges with 3.2% first-quarter growth

[I]  Polarised Spain faces months of coalition talks

[I]  Iranian foreign minister defiant over US sanctions on oil

[I]  French employees face challenge to short-hours culture

[I]  Germany’s big banks are left grasping for answers

[I]  Big tech presents next chapter for UK gaming companies

 

REUTERS

[I]  Argentine peso ends rollercoaster week with record low close

[I]  Trump pulling U.S. out of U.N. arms treaty, heeding NRA

[I]  Europe wants to deal with China as a group: German minister

[I]  Good news from China could boost materials shares

[I]  Trump says sees possibility of U.S.-Japan trade deal by May

[I]  No wind-down for China on stopping its Iran oil buys: Trump officials

[I]  Trump says U.S. paid no money to North Korea over Warmbier

[I]  Libya's U.N.-backed government readies new war funding but hopes vital business to continue

[I]  Russia says it can fix tainted oil affecting Europe supplies soon

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Europe Blew Up Financial Research -- Hedge Funds and U.S. Firms Won

[I]  Trump Gets GDP Boost He Needs for 2020, Along With Growth Risks

[I]  Oil Bulls on Longest Run in 13 Years as Trump Demands Price Cut

[I]  Philadelphia Hands Bond Deal to Banks It Says Have Fleeced the City

[I]  Colombia Holds Key Rate at 4.25% as Recovery Needs Support

[I]  Tradeweb’s 50% Rally Sets Stage for Questions About Debt Market

[I]  Oil Patch Cuts More Drilling as Rig Owner Sees Attitude Shift

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Grew at 3.2% Rate in First Quarter

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Softened in April

[I]  Economic Growth ‘Really, Really Strong’ in First Quarter, Hassett Says

[I]  Trump Calls On Japan’s Abe to Lift Tariffs on U.S. Farm Goods

[I]  China’s Xi Vows New Direction for ‘Belt and Road’ After Criticism

[I]  U.S. Durable Orders Rose 2.7% in March, Faster Than Expected

[I]  Real Time Economics: Boom Goes U.S. GDP!

[I]  Real Time Economics: Business Investment Is Up, Homeownership Is Down

[I]  Boost to Growth Predicted Despite Shutdown, Storms and Trade Tensions

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ‘Post-Brexit, UK’s new immigration system will benefit Indian students, workers’

[I]  ‘120 start-ups get patents under expedited examination process’

[I]  Geopolitics of oil and valuation of stocks

[I]  Climate change is the top agenda in UK

[I]  Systemic risks that escape the RBI’s radar

[I]  Declining storage levels in reservoirs a worry for farm sector

[I]  Liquidity deficit may last till end of elections: SBI

[I]  Total balance in Jan Dhan accounts touches Rs. 1-lakh cr

[I]  Non-deposit taking firms now come under ombudsman scheme for NBFCs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $739 million to $414.14 billion

[I]  How China’s $13-T bond mkt may be trade war winner

[I]  In March, Private Equity, Venture Capital inflow hit all-time high of $7 billion

[I]  RBI extends ombudsman scheme to non-deposit taking NBFCs

[I]  Crypto currency is 'ponzi scheme', should be banned in India: Govt official

[I]  SC directs RBI to disclose information on bank inspection report under RTI

[I]  Resolution plans under IBC have yielded 200% of liquidation value: IBBI chief

[I]  Businesses can use IGST credit to settle centre, state tax dues: CBIC

[I]  Disclose defaulters list, NPAs of banks under RTI: SC gives final warning to RBI

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Last chance for RBI to give info on bank inspection reports under RTI: SC

[I]  US embargo on Iran oil exports, BS-VI norms may hit auto sales: RC Bhargava

[I]  India's gaming industry heats up as investors court fantasy sports firms

[I]  Chinese brands corner two-thirds of India's smartphone market: Report

[I]  Oil prices tumble as Donald Trump dials Opec to lower gasoline prices

[I]  Retaliatory tariffs: India may extend deadline on 29 US items by 14 days

[I]  At $44 bn foreign interest, oil could be India's next geopolitical currency

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

27 Apr 2019

HERE COMES THE GOLDEN CHILD OF WEEKDAYS; HAVE FUN ITS FRIDAY. WISHING A MEMORABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 26 Apr 2019

 

Reuters poll suggests global tightening cycle may be over and time for a slower ride for growth ahead. Economic growth was likely solid in the first three months of the year, despite a rocky start to the quarter due to prolonged government shutdown and financial-market turmoil in late 2018. Orders for long-lasting factory goods rose in March at the fastest clip in seven months, surpassing expectations and suggesting demand picked up after a slow start to the year. The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits rose sharply last week. The U.S. homeownership rate fell for the first time in more than two years in the first quarter, putting the brakes on the recovery of an important piece of the economy.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Merger collapse plunges Germany’s biggest banks into uncertainty

[I]  Macron promises tax cuts in new French reforms

[I]  China pledges to address debt worries over Belt and Road

[I]  Turkish markets weaken on central bank reluctance to raise rates

[I]  Rich nations urged to prepare workers for automation

[I]  Bank of Japan vows to hold rates at zero until spring 2020

[I]  Iran left with few choices as Trump steps up pressure

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global tightening cycle over, slower ride for growth ahead: Reuters Poll

[I]  Japan March jobless rate rises to 2.5%

[I]  Brent slips from $75 per barrel as investors doubt rally will endure

[I]  Exclusive: U.S. accelerates plan to drastically downsize Kabul embassy - sources

[I]  Japan tells U.S. can't link monetary policy to trade: finance minister Aso

[I]  U.S. capital goods orders hit record high; weekly jobless claims rise

[I]  Britain and China to hold new round of financial talks in London in June

[I]  Fed done raising rates; cut by end-2020 growing more likely: Reuters poll

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  World Trade Volumes Are Plunging at the Fastest Pace in a Decade

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Most Since 2017, Topping Estimates

[I]  U.S. Business-Equipment Orders Advance by Most Since July

[I]  Shaving Milliseconds Off Currency Trades Could Make Singapore Billions

[I]  Policy Doubts Rise as BOJ's Price Goal Recedes Into the Distance

[I]  Central Banks' Club of Caution Grows as Bad News Piles Up

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  What to Watch in the First-Quarter GDP Report

[I]  U.S. Durable Orders Rose 2.7% in March, Faster Than Expected

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week

[I]  High-School Graduates Flock to College Even in Strong Job Market

[I]  Homeownership Rate Drops for First Time in More Than Two Years

[I]  Moore Hopeful for Fed Post, but Says He Would Bow Out If He Becomes Liability

[I]  Real Time Economics: Getting Ready for First-Quarter GDP

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  US official insists on zero oil imports from Iran

[I]  Women in Marathwada go against the grain

[I]  More uncertainties ahead for global economy

[I]  Foodgrain target for 2019-20 set at 291 million tonnes

[I]  Developments in fintech space give fresh impetus to financial inclusion: RBI chief

[I]  High fuel prices may have slowed auto sales: RBI paper

[I]  Indian car terrain will see companies hunting in pairs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Final nail in the coffin: India may soon put a blanket ban on cryptos

[I]  Big MNCs under lens for GST profiteering

[I]  Why homeowners are turning into amateur builders

[I]  Rupee falls below 70-mark against dollar amid weakness across EM currencies

[I]  UK, India experts explore smart tech solution for Indian farmers

[I]  Commerce department plans to defer raising duty on 29 US goods

[I]  Indian investment in UK on rise despite Brexit: Report

[I]  Divergent AAR rulings on GST on AMCs put industry in a fix

[I]  RBI plans to attract more foreign capital for nation-building

[I]  View: Time for India to pursue economic policies that have borne fruit across the world

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI deputy governor B P Kanungo bats for capital account liberalisation

[I]  India's crude oil production drops 4.15% to 34.2 million tonne in FY19

[I]  Karnataka iron ore mines stuck with 6.5 million tonnes of unsold inventory

[I]  Income-tax dept likely to propose using calendar as financial year

[I]  Global iron ore prices to rise 11% on supply disruptions, China stimulus

[I]  Do the rich and powerful think that they can remote control us, asks SC

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11732;  USDINR DGCX:--;  DJIA Mini: 26398;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7386;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22082;  EUR-USD: 1.1135; Crude Oil (WTI): 64.87;  Gold (Spot): 1280

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

26 Apr 2019

SHARE THE LOVE THAT WAS DUE THIS WEEK; FRIDAY IS JUST A DAY AWAY. WISHING A REMARKABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 25 Apr 2019

 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back about half of new mortgages in the U.S. Now, talks are heating up about reshaping or shrinking the two companies, a move that could impact millions of Americans. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s proposal for the government to forgive a huge chunk of student debt would disproportionately help upper-income households, a new analysis shows. RBI steps up liquidity management to make rate cuts count. South Korean economy unexpectedly contracts in first quarter, worst since global financial crisis, as Investment Slows. Inflation, not deficits, is the new challenge for Pakistan’s economy. Indonesian Rate cuts may be in the pipeline.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Kim and Putin set for talks as Russia seeks influence

[I]  Drones to deliver medicines to 12m people in Ghana

[I]  Trade wars ‘would hurt US worst’, ECB says

[I]  ‘Sticky’ savings banks keep big German rivals in check

[I]  American big business must not hobble EU consumer redress

[I]  Capitalism needs more than capital to survive

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI steps up liquidity management to make rate cuts count 

[I]  Russia offers passports to east Ukraine, president-elect decries 'aggressor state'

[I]  South Korea economy unexpectedly contracts in first quarter, worst since global financial crisis

[I]  Anger over Brexit sparks new grassroots drive for Scottish independence

[I]  Bank of England to refrain from rate hike until August 2020: NIESR

[I]  Top U.S. officials to hold trade talks in China next week

[I]  China to recalibrate Belt and Road, defend scheme against criticism

[I]  Britain starts search for 'highest calibre' Bank of England governor

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  How China's $13 Trillion Bond Market Will Be a Trade-War Winner

[I]  South Korea Economy Shrinks Most Since 2008 as Investment Slows

[I]  The Future of Shopping Is Already Happening in China

[I]  Iraq Will Deliver Third-Biggest Chunk of New Oil Over Next Decade, IEA Says

[I]  Inflation Not Deficits Is the New Challenge for Pakistan’s Economy

[I]  Homeowners in India Roll Up Sleeves to Complete Unfinished Flats

[I]  Untested China Bond Structure Sparks Market Angst After Default

[I]  Indonesia Rate Cuts May Be in the Pipeline in Wake of Jokowi’s Victory

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Moore Hopeful for Fed Post, but Says He Would Bow Out If He Becomes Liability

[I]  Warren’s Student-Debt Deal Would Most Benefit Stronger Earners, Study Finds

[I]  Two Capitalists Worry About Capitalism’s Future

[I]  Fannie and Freddie’s Uncertain Future, Explained

[I]  Real Time Economics: Markets Rally, Housing Thaws, U.S. and China Set Date for Talks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Import duty on ICT products: Five countries seek to join EU to mount pressure on India at WTO

[I]  Major cyclone in the making; may cross North TN coast early next week, says IMD

[I]  Complaints made to banking ombudsman rose 25% in FY18

[I]  RBI divests entire stake in NHB, NABARD

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  The things that matter show India's economy is cooling

[I]  Iran oil curbs: India is on a slippery slope

[I]  RBI may join global peers in buying more gold

[I]  Uncertainty looms over basmati, tea exports after Iran sanctions

[I]  28% Indian ultra HNIs expect wealth creation will be easy in 2019: Survey

[I]  Capital gains tax relief likely for investors exiting startups

[I]  Finance Ministry may raise cap on 59-minute loans to Rs 3-5 crore

[I]  Finance Ministry brings in changes in e-way bill system to check GST evasion

[I]  Composition scheme biz to now file simplified 'self-assessed' GST return quarterly

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI may allow 66% lenders' approval for resolution of stressed assets

[I]  Earnings optimism lifts markets, FPI buys offset concerns over oil prices

[I]  MNC stocks trading at all-time high valuations, time to stay selective

[I]  GST Council gives firms more flexibility on use of input tax credit

[I]  Private equity investments fall in residential real estate: Report

[I]  2 billion domestic and foreign trips taken by Indians in 2018: Report

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11710;  USDINR DGCX: 70.5000;  DJIA Mini: 26547;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7427;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22234;  EUR-USD: 1.1253; Crude Oil (WTI): 65.57;  Gold (Spot): 1275

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
25 Apr 2019