LET US CHERISH A LITTLE NONSENSE NOW AND THEN. WISHING A RELISHING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Jun 2019

 

India's government is likely to overshoot the budget deficit target previously set for the current fiscal year as a slowing economy creates a big shortfall in tax collections and prompts new stimulus plans. Factory output is slowing in a number of key economies, darkening the outlook for the global economy and increasing the likelihood that leading central banks will respond with fresh stimulus. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounds prepared to cut interest rates if growth prospects don’t suddenly improve. Two Federal Reserve officials said they believed the central bank should have lowered and not held steady its short-term rate target this week to help address persistently weak inflation pressures and rising economic risks. Governments across the world are increasingly questioning the autonomy of their central banks, putting the relationship between the two at stake.

 

Central Banks Policy Stances

USA - Prepared to cut interest rates

Europe - Could cut interest rates again

UK - Would be likely to cut interest rates

Japan - Could combine interest rate cuts with bigger asset buying

Norway - More rate rises to come and at a “slightly faster” pace

Brazil - Held back from signalling looser policy

Taiwan - Continued to keep policy on hold as rates are already low

Columbia - Cut the reserve requirement, could cut interest rate.

Indonesia - Signalled its readiness to support credit expansion

India - Door open for more policy easing

Australia - May cut policy rates further this year

Russia - Paving the way for further monetary easing

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Death of the high street weighs on landlords round the world

[I]  US-Iran: on collision course for war?

[I]  Nato prepares first outer space strategy

[I]  EU conclave more divided than ever over new leadership

[I]  Germany on edge as neo-Nazis target mainstream

[I]  Eurozone business conditions show slight improvement

[I]  London insurance market moves to clean up its act

 

REUTERS

[I]  India steel ministry seeks higher duties to deter Chinese imports - document

[I]  India raises concerns over rising oil prices with Saudi Arabia

[I]  India becomes investment darling for sovereign wealth and pension funds

[I]  Gold discounts in India widen to highest in almost three years as prices reach record

[I]  Trump China tariffs could cost billions for consumers: retailer study

[I]  U.S. cities brace for immigration raids, say they will not participate

[I]  India likely to let budget deficit rise as tax receipts fall short

[I]  U.S. oil prices soar 10% in the week on fears of U.S.- Iran conflict

[I]  European central bankers claim oversight over Facebook’s cryptocurrency

[I]  Dollars in the detail; banks pan for gold in 'data lakes'

[I]  Soft U.S. factory activity darkens economic outlook

[I]  Saudi Arabia named full member of anti-illicit funding body

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Gold Shot to a 6-Year High This Week. Here's What to Watch Next

[I]  Surging Volume Deluges Market, Roils Stocks on Quad-Witching Day

[I]  Hedge Funders Study Alternative Warfare, Julius Caesar for 2019’s Summer Book List

[I]  U.S. Factory Index Falls to Fresh Nine-Year Low

[I]  Autos Nudge Canadian Retail Sales Higher in April

[I]  Doctors Add MBAs to Their MDs as Health-Care Burnout Spreads

[I]  Draghi Wins EU Standing Ovation as He Urges Looser Purse Strings

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Faltering Factories Cast a Dark Cloud Over Global Economy

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Rose in May

[I]  Five Takeaways From the June Fed Meeting

[I]  Fed’s Clarida: ‘We’ll Act as Appropriate to Sustain Expansion’

[I]  Two Fed Doves Make Case for Central Bank Rate Cuts

[I]  Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST Council gives anti-profiteering body 2 more years

[I]  Global airlines reroute services to avoid flying over Iran

[I]  Present e-vehicle conversion plan in 2 weeks, NITI Aayog tells 2-wheeler makers

[I]  Textiles body seeks government help to halt fall in apparel exports

[I]  India will engage with US on trade, but national interest is paramount: Goyal

[I]  At G-20 meet in Osaka, India to push for strengthening WTO

[I]  Truant rains affect sowing of major kharif crops up to 50%

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why Chennai’s water crisis should worry you

[I]  Forex reserve declines by $1.3 billion to $422.2 billion

[I]  Right time to expand GST coverage to all sectors; converge tax slabs: India Inc

[I]  M&A deal activity records 87% plunge in value in May: Report

[I]  More independent directors take the exit fearing legal scrutiny

[I]  New scheme to provide social security pension to farmers

[I]  Rice production in India to shrink due to late monsoon

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  With slow progress of rains, sowing of kharif crops remains slack

[I]  Govt refuses to budge on electric vehicle deadline for 2- and 3-wheelers

[I]  India becomes investment darling for sovereign wealth, pension funds

[I]  Supreme Court order opens way for naming more wilful corporate defaulters

[I]  Govt to reduce bank lending rate for exporters, says Piyush Goyal

[I]  Industry demands fiscal stimulus in Budget to spur economic growth

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

22 Jun 2019

A DAY TO CELEBRATE A JOURNEY OF THE SELF TO THE SELF THROUGH THE SELF. WISHING A SELFLESS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 21 Jun 2019

 

Economic activity clearly losing traction- RBI Guv. Centre begins groundwork for 100 innovation centres. Like it or not, the Fed is the world’s central bank. Thus, it is now signalling it will likely cut rates in coming months, not because the U.S. is headed into recession, but because shadows are growing over the rest of the world. The Trump administration has no plans to cap H-1B work visas for nations that force foreign companies to store data locally, the State Department said. U.S. companies brought home more profits stashed overseas in 2018, the first year after the tax-law overhaul, than initially estimated.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump says ‘hard to believe’ downing of US drone was intentional

[I]  Music industry targets troll farms distorting streaming revenues

[I]  Putin admits to Russians’ anger over faltering economy

[I]  Capital flight fears as China tightens Hong Kong grip

[I]  Fed waits for more information before cutting rates

[I]  UK suspends new arms export licences to Saudi-led coalition

[I]  Early G20 talks reveal frustration with China and US

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. has no plans to cap H-1B work visa program: State Department

[I]  India's flagging economy needs urgent boost amid muted inflation: MPC minutes

[I]  France's Macron says three lead candidates for EU Commission presidency failed to get support

[I]  Impact of further U.S. tariffs on Chinese economy likely limited: regulator in People's Daily

[I]  As ratings drop, Putin defends record, says better life awaits Russians

[I]  Explainer: U.S.-China trade talks - where they are and what's at stake

[I]  Divided EU to urge return to talks on euro zone integration

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Gold Futures Top $1,400 as Global Central Banks Turn Dovish

[I]  Japan’s Inflation Slows in May as Pressure to Act Builds on BOJ

[I]  Easy Does It Across Global Central Banks in 2019’s Busiest Week

[I]  Norway Rushes to Hike Interest Rates Before Oil-Stoked Boom Ends

[I]  SNB’s Old Threat Returns as Federal Reserve, ECB Go Dovish

[I]  Investors Make Biggest Share of U.S. Home Purchases in 20 Years

[I]  China Is Missing Out on Huge Bond Rally Taking Off Globally

[I]  French Economy Hit by Euro-Area Slowdown as Insee Cuts Outlook

[I]  House-Flipper Sees Big Profits in Japan's 8 Million Empty Homes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump on Fed Decision: ‘You Can’t Win ‘Em All’

[I]  U.S. Companies Brought Home More Profits From Overseas

[I]  World Looms Large in Fed Rate Plans

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Voted Against Rate Decision

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Decreased Last Week

[I]  Women Working Longer Hours, Sleeping Less, as They Juggle Commitments

[I]  Real Time Economics: The Fed Didn’t Cut…Yet

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Replicate the Swachh Bharat model to tackle water crisis, President tells MPs

[I]  Despite loan waiver, farmer suicides have continued unabated: Maharashtra govt

[I]  EB5 visa to US gains in popularity, but proposed new norms may play spoilsport

[I]  Solar-power project brings sunshine to the lives of farmers, curbs migration

[I]  Recovery of bad debt from steel cos to dip

[I]  Fresh ‘low’ in Bay will oversee monsoon revival

[I]  Foreign exchange trading platform for retail participants ready for Aug 5 rollout, says RBI

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Economic activity clearly losing traction: RBI Guv

[I]  RBI says forex retail trading platform ready for rollout on Aug 5

[I]  Worst growth in decade for corporate bond market fuels concern

[I]  10-year bond yields at 20-month low on Fed rate cut hints

[I]  Centre begins groundwork for 100 innovation centres

[I]  Centre, states need to pursue labour law reforms: SBI report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Auto, realty companies may not get relief at GST Council meet today

[I]  EPFO halts investment in private sector bonds due to NBFC crisis

[I]  Govt may raise income-tax threshold in Budget to revive economy

[I]  Despite high price and demand, farmers not interested in maize

[I]  Government notified rate for land goes down by 20% in Madhya Pradesh

[I]  Worst growth for India's corporate bonds in over 10 years fuels concern

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11857;  USDINR DGCX: 69.5325;  DJIA Mini: 26755;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7426;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21360;  EUR-USD: 1.1302; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.65;  Gold (Spot): 1407

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

21 Jun 2019

THE FUN OF LIFE LIES IN STUPIDITY; GENIUS HAS ITS LIMITS. WISHING A FROLIC DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 20 Jun 2019

 

India's monsoon has progressed more slowly than usual after hitting the southern state of Kerala nearly a week late. Monsoon rains have been 44% lower-than-average so far in June raising concerns that parts of the country could face a worsening drought. The U.S. has told India it is considering caps on H-1B work visas for nations that force foreign companies to store data locally. Under pressure to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve gave its strongest signal yet that it is preparing to possibly cut rates later this year, while keeping rates steady. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled that the bank could roll out fresh stimulus as soon as July. Australia's central bank flags lower rates in jobs hunt. New Zealand first-quarter GDP growth steady, but soft underbelly keeps more rate cuts on table. Brazil’s Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at Its Record Low.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed holds rates but signals more dovish outlook 

[I]  Japanese companies brace for contentious AGM season

[I]  Italy finance minister rules out bonds to pay debts

[I]  Ireland budget plan assumes no-deal Brexit

[I]  EU to debate adopting 2050 ‘net zero’ emissions target

[I]  Balkans warn of nationalist threat over EU delay

[I]  Guatemala and US in talks over safe third-country status

[I]  Rolls-Royce plugs in to hybrid-electric future

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. tells India it is mulling caps on H-1B visas to deter data rules: sources

[I]  India plans to exempt electric vehicles from registration fee

[I]  Fed sees case building for interest rate cuts this year

[I]  Australia's central bank flags lower rates in jobs hunt

[I]  New Zealand first-quarter GDP growth steady, but soft underbelly keeps more rate cuts on table

[I]  All eyes on a monsoon that is critical for the economy

[I]  Column: Global economic slowdown hits oil consumption

[I]  Sri Lanka's economy recovered in first-quarter but faces slump after April bombings

[I]  Britain's bankers call for more support, tax cuts after Brexit

[I]  BOJ seen holding fire, Kuroda may offer dovish signal post-Fed

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Gold Jumps to More Than 5-Year High as Fed Signals Ready to Cut

[I]  Powell Opens Door to July Rate Cut Amid Trumpian Uncertainty

[I]  Treasury 10-Year Yield Slides Below 2% to Lead Global Decline

[I]  Icelanders in Shock as Tourism Collapse Halts Economic Miracle

[I]  Fed Loses Patience, Asia Hikers Turn Cutters, Rate Bets: Eco Day

[I]  China's Pollution Crackdown to Benefit Indian Chemical Stocks

[I]  New Zealand's Sluggish Growth Leaves Door Open for RBNZ Rate Cut

[I]  Bond Market Screams at Fed: Don't Dawdle on Those Rate Cuts

[I]  Brazil’s Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at Its Record Low

[I]  Worst Growth in Decade for India’s Corporate Bond Market Fuels Concern

[I]  Fed Scraps Patient Approach and Opens Door to Potential Rate Cut

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Holds Rates Steady, Hints at Cuts if Outlook Doesn’t Improve

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Voted Against Rate Decision

[I]  Mexico Ratifies Trade Pact with U.S., Canada

[I]  Lighthizer Plans Call With Chinese Counterpart Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks

[I]  How ‘Stealth’ Consolidation is Undermining Competition

[I]  ECB Signals Possible Rate Cut, Prompting Trump Rebuke

[I]  Women Working Longer Hours, Sleeping Less, as They Juggle Commitments

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From May

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Young Indians driving OTT video content platforms

[I]  FinMin launches phase II of faceless tax assessment

[I]  We are looking at ways to bring Russian crude oil to India: Pradhan

[I]  Broad-based monsoon spell likely for eastern and southern parts

[I]  As digital attacks surge, banks resort to cyber drills

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why IT cos won't pay more for your H-1B visa

[I]  34.06 million tonnes of wheat procured

[I]  Haircuts for operational creditors are at par with financial creditors: Icra

[I]  Government turns down traders’ e-commerce regulator demand

[I]  Tax body seeks extension of GST return filing by four months

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Railways set to hive off production units in corporatisation drive

[I]  Corporate Affairs Min may amend LLP Act to tighten noose on shell firms

[I]  Top 5 metro cities account for more than 55% of OTT users: Report

[I]  With new RBI norms, investors need to be cautious about small finance arms

[I]  Carmakers pin hopes on smaller towns, cities to boost automobile sales

[I]  Secondary metals producers fear inverted duty structure could hurt

[I]  India won't allow multi-brand retail by foreign companies, says Goyal

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11755;  USDINR DGCX: 69.5875;  DJIA Mini: 26617;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7431;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21380;  EUR-USD: 1.1270; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.45;  Gold (Spot): 1380

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

20 Jun 2019