WISHING A WINNING WEEKEND TO A WONDERFUL WINSOME

Macro Economic News 30 Jun 2018

 

More than 20 banks announce payouts to reward shareholders after Fed stress tests. EU leaders agree on immigration and trade, and euro-area inflation hits 2 percent. Talks at the summit in Brussels over the thorny issue of immigration produced a package of measures to stem the flow of migrants to the European Union and to share the burden of handling those who arrive.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Merkel buys time with EU migration deals

[I]  Supreme Court hands down a win for Trump with Republicans

[I]  China eases foreign ownership curbs as trade war looms

[I]  Rome declares summit win but is left still fighting

[I]  The EU’s migration deal: what leaders have agreed

[I]  Bond markets send signals of a looming recession

 

REUTERS

[I]  EU plea to reuse more plastic lacks bite

[I]  Price drop spurs India gold demand, buyers eye bigger dips

[I]  China factory growth slows in June as trade tensions rise

[I]  China official factory PMI falls to 51.5 in June

[I]  Put your cards on the table, EU makes last Brexit call to Britain

[I]  Monsoon rains cover entire India, ahead of schedule

[I]  India says April-May fiscal deficit at 55.3 percent of full-year target

[I]  India hopes to cut losses from rupee fall with reserves 'firepower'

[I]  Insight: China's penetration of Silicon Valley creates risks for startups

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Factory Gauge Slips in June as Credit Squeeze Hits Output

[I]  Trade Spat Gives Emerging Markets Bitter Ending for Quarter

[I]  Draghi Warns Risks From Trade War May Be Understated

[I]  Crypto Coin Tether Defies Logic on Kraken’s Market, Raising Red Flags

[I]  Wall Street Left Reeling as 2018 Upends Almost Every Bet

[I]  China Factory Gauge Slips in June as Credit Squeeze Hits Output

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Inflation Gauge Hits Fed Target After Six-Year Run of Soft Prices

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Moderated in May

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Increased Slightly in June

[I]  There’s a New 1040 Tax Form. Will Millions of E-Filers Even Notice?

[I]  U.S. Inflation Hits Six-Year High in May

[I]  Inflation Is Here; What Will the Fed Do?

[I]  Treasury Chief Calls Capital-Gains Change a Job for Congress First

[I]  Americans Worked Less Despite Job Growth

[I]  Eurozone Inflation Tops ECB Target for First Time in More Than a Year

[I]  Canada GDP Rises on Factory Strength

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI to take action against erring bank auditors

[I]  Fiscal deficit touches 55.3% of FY19 target in April-May

[I]  Jaitley: Not all money deposited in Swiss banks is black

[I]  One year on, businesses await clarity on GST returns

[I]  US brand Bath & Body Works makes its Indian debut

[I]  Relentless selling by FPIs sees record $6.17-billion flow out of debt segment

[I]  Thailand eyes India for its tapioca

[I]  Monsoon shifting to Himalayan foothills; more rain in UP, Bihar

[I]  Banks demanding guarantees may leave infra projects starved of funds

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India has enough firepower to deal with rupee volatility: Economic Affairs Secretary

[I]  A falling rupee to hike cost of overseas borrowing, hedging for India Inc

[I]  4th tranche of electoral bonds sale from July 2: FinMin

[I]  22,000 rural agriculture markets to be linked by 2020: Agri Minister

[I]  Only 21% feel GST reduced monthly grocery bills: Survey

[I]  India’s external debt rises by 12.4% on higher overseas borrowing and NRI deposits

[I]  All money deposits in Swiss Banks not black money: Arun Jaitley

[I]  Fiscal deficit for April-May reaches 55.3% of the Budgeted target of FY19

[I]  Climate Change could accentuate poverty & inequality in India: World Bank

[I]  IMF suggests India three steps to sustain high growth rate

[I]  44 per cent increase in direct tax collection: Arun Jaitley

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Kharif crop minimum support prices to be in place next week

[I]  M&As on the rise as tech companies focus on top line growth

[I]  Shadow of polls may overshadow political consensus in GST Council meetings

[I]  Raising minimum support price may pose inflation challenge for govt

[I]  India's external debt went up 12.4% to $529.7 billion in March

[I]  Fiscal deficit hits 55% of full-year target on the back of higher capex

[I]  Monsoon covers whole country 17 days in advance, boost to kharif sowing

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 Jun 2018

WISHING THE JOY OF EVERY PRESENT MOMENT

Macro Economic News 29 Jun 2018

 

EU leaders gather for summit, Trump and Putin arrange a date, and China adds to emerging-market turmoil. Emerging-market currencies’ bad run continues, with India’s rupee falling to an all-time low against the dollar this morning. The latest setback for the asset class has upended China’s yuan, which has long enjoyed haven status among developing nations. The currency is now at its lowest level since November.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Epic political battle begins over future of US Supreme Court

[I]  Global dealmaking reaches $2.5tn as US megadeals lift volumes

[I]  Italy stalls EU summit over migration deal

[I]  China’s economy faces deeper risks than trade war

[I]  Greece is pillar of EU stability, says firebrand Alexis Tsipras

[I]  China rejects US concerns over South China Sea militarisation

[I]  Brussels steps up emergency planning for no-deal Brexit

[I]  Greek business scion in battle for construction group

 

REUTERS

[I]  India preparing for cut in oil imports from Iran - sources

[I]  Ash from erupting volcano shuts airport in Indonesia's Bali

[I]  U.S. ambassador unconvinced China willing to make fast progress on trade

[I]  England chew on the ultimate bittersweet

[I]  Half of South Asia living in vulnerable climate 'hotspots' - World Bank

[I]  India could put off impending higher tariff on some U.S. goods: trade ministry source

[I]  Majority of Americans think social media platforms censor political views - Pew survey

[I]  Canada to aid steel, aluminium industries hit by U.S. tariffs -source

[I]  Euro zone economic sentiment slips in June but above expectations

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Vietnam's Economy Expands 6.8% in Second Quarter From Year Ago

[I]  China Opens Up More of Its Economy to Foreign Investors

[I]  Japan’s Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest in a Quarter Century

[I]  Ticking Countdown to Trade War Enters Final Hours: Economy Week

[I]  U.K. Confidence Slips in June as Economic Pessimism Mounts

[I]  Analysts Still Bullish on China Banks Despite Stocks Battering

[I]  Indonesia Decision Guide: Rupiah Woes Point to Another Rate Hike

[I]  Emerging-Market Central Banks Are Losing Battle Against Traders

[I]  China Expected to Defend the Yuan at Key Level as Losses Mount

[I]  It's All Going Wrong for China Developers as Bond Investors Flee

[I]  China Opens Up More of Its Economy to Foreign Investors

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  The Economy Was Weaker Last Quarter Than We Thought

[I]  Demand for Business Equipment Cools

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rise 9,000 to 227,000

[I]  Fed’s Bullard: Inverting Yield Curve ‘Key Near-Term Risk’

[I]  Trump’s Bid to Weaken Iran Is Strengthening the Saudi Economy

[I]  Fed’s Rosengren Says It’s Time to Take Away Monetary-Policy Punch Bowl

[I]  Brazil Central Bank Cuts 2018 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.6% From 2.6%

[I]  Some Economists Boost Estimates for U.S. Growth

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Rising dollar, crude oil, US trade war push rupee to life-time low

[I]  Climate change can cost India 2.8% of GDP by 2050: World Bank

[I]  Govt will ensure energy security is not compromised: MEA official

[I]  India, US working to sort out looming tariff war

[I]  Govt set to pull the plug on ‘right of first refusal’ for Indian ships

[I]  At just 8% of bank deposits, MFs have miles to go in investor-attraction sweepstakes

[I]  Monsoon to cover entire country over next 2-3 days, says Met Dept

[I]  Rupee under pressure on spike in oil prices, outflow of foreign money

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Money stashed by Indians in Swiss banks rise 50% to over Rs 7,000 crore

[I]  India least vulnerable to US dollar strengthening: Moody's

[I]  Investors, hedgers rush to short the rupee, other EM currencies

[I]  Rupee hits record low, breaches 69 level for the first time against US dollar

[I]  Rupee plumbs a record low; what has caused this slump?

[I]  How RBI checks rupee's plunge and why?

[I]  Total market cap of top 100 global companies reaches USD 20 trillion: Report

[I]  Government to launch scheme to prevent distress sales by farmers

[I]  Plans afoot to base aircraft leasing firms at GIFT city

[I]  India finally brings clarity on income tax computation for foreign firms

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Leaner 28% GST list? Council may consider rate cut for cement, paint

[I]  India likely to roll back higher import duties on 29 US products

[I]  Will rupee breach 70? Indian currency sinks to record low against US dollar

[I]  Mumbai builders make a beeline to acquire and launch new projects in NCR

[I]  Individual bankruptcy rules to take more time: All you need to know

[I]  Centre readies policy changes in solar bids, likely to award 10-15 GW

[I]  Non-priority sector loans worsen NPA headache for public sector banks

[I]  Govt readies to reduce oil imports from Iran to zero

[I]  Tariff cuts: India says China needs to prune import barriers

[I]  MFIs turn aggressive lenders, signs of overborrowing emerge in microlending

 

MARKETS (8:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10613;  USDINR DGCX: 69.1475;  DJIA Mini: 24340;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7591;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22194;  EUR-USD: 1.1646; Crude Oil (WTI): 73.27;  Gold (Spot): 1249          

Best Regards, ARBIND

29 Jun 2018

WISHING YOU CREATION OF VALUE VIA COMPASSIONATE CHARACTERISTICS

Macro Economic News 28 Jun 2018

 

White House chose a less confrontational approach on Chinese investments. Energy producers jumped as oil briefly topped $73 a barrel. The dollar advanced against all G-10 peers. Treasuries rallied on the trade angst, boosted by a solid five-year auction. The rout in emerging markets deepened as investors sifted through the latest remarks from the Trump administration on protectionist measures, with currencies slumping and stocks on pace for their worst quarter since September 2015.

A leaked report from a Chinese government-backed think tank has warned of a potential “financial panic” in the world’s second-largest economy, a sign that some members of the nation’s policy elite are growing concerned as market turbulence and trade tensions increase. Bond defaults, liquidity shortages and the recent plunge in financial markets pose particular dangers at a time of rising U.S. interest rates and a trade spat with Washington.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump drops new restrictions on China investments

[I]  Greece ready to sign deal with Merkel to take back asylum seekers

[I]  Deepening global trade war fails to stir gold investors

[I]  Reigning champions Germany laid low by a foot in the past

[I]  Conte takes hard line on EU economic and immigration policy

[I]  Democratic party looks for answers to New York primary shock

[I]  South Sudan warring rivals agree ceasefire in bid to end civil war

[I]  Private equity moves into the mainstream in Japan

[I]  Hedge funds push regulator to set higher Sky price

 

REUTERS

[I]  Westinghouse eyes Saudi, India deals as end to bankruptcy nears

[I]  Asian shares flirt with nine-month low on mounting trade war fears

[I]  Greece reaches deal with Germany's Merkel to take back asylum seekers: FT

[I]  Turkey slams 'hypocritical' EU report on accession talks

[I]  Germany optimistic about EU lifeline for Merkel

[I]  Saudis to hit oil record as Iran feels squeeze

[I]  Under pressure from populists, EU doubles down on curbing migration

[I]  European chip industry seeks more EU help to extend revival

[I]  Automakers warn U.S. tariffs will cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, hike prices

[I]  U.S. House backs tighter foreign investment rules amid China worries

[I]  Canada lobbies Big Three U.S. carmakers to fight auto tariffs

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Japan’s Retail Sales Drop by Most in Nearly Two Years in May

[I]  Britain's Crown Estate Points to Challenging Property Market

[I]  U.K. Deems Heathrow Runway Compatible With Green Targets

[I]  Our Guide to What the World’s Top Central Banks Will Do Next

[I]  China Think Tank Warns of Potential ‘Financial Panic’ in Leaked Note

[I]  This Inverted Market Curve Is Already Causing Investors Pain

[I]  China's Sliding Yuan Is Bad News for These Companies

[I]  Emerging Markets on ‘Tenterhooks’ as Chinese Selloff Deepens

[I]  China Slowdown Deepens on Trade Tensions and Weak Credit Growth

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Eases His Approach to Chinese Trade, Investments

[I]  Capital Account: As Trade Barriers Go Up, Global Supply Chains Unravel

[I]  Lawsuit Challenges Trump’s Authority to Impose Tariffs

[I]  That Noise You Hear? The Sound of Globalization Going Into Reverse

[I]  The Fed’s Latest Challenge: Keeping Benchmark Rate in Check

[I]  Bullard Warns on Going Too Far, Too Fast With Rate Increases

[I]  Demand for Business Equipment Cools

[I]  Supreme Court Deals Blow to Public-Sector Unions

[I]  As Treasury Targets Workarounds to Tax Law, Impact May Extend Far

[I]  U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops in June

[I]  BOE Warns of Growing Risks in Global Debt Markets

[I]  U.S. Signals Sanctions for All Imports of Iranian Oil

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India, China demand reduction in rich nations’ harmful farm subsidies from 2019

[I]  Trade war, boiling oil, falling rupee sink small/mid-caps

[I]  India cautious on China move to reduce import tariffs on goods

[I]  Fintech firms come up with new-gen solutions for wide spectrum of users

[I]  Non-English net users in India will cross 530 m by 2021, says Google

[I]  Retail housing: Avoid dilution in credit standards, RBI warns banks

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Modi government to go for complete UGC overhaul

[I]  ISRO readies to find nuclear fuel on Moon

[I]  Trade tensions roil money market, rupee hits 19-month low

[I]  Escalating trade war hits EM currencies

[I]  Govt bonds decline, call rates finish lower

[I]  China to reduce tariffs on 8,549 types of goods from India, 4 other Asian countries

[I]  US diplomat: India has high tariffs and needs to lower trade barriers

[I]  Government seeks clarity on cross-border data flows, localisation from e-commerce task force

[I]  FY19 monthly GST mop-up to be at Rs 1 lakh crore: Hasmukh Adhia

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  I-T to examine poll candidates' finances ahead of state, general elections

[I]  Private investment plans in India's strategic oil reserves get Cabinet nod

[I]  Here's how kharif planting gets a monsoon booster across the country

[I]  What exactly would be the kharif MSP of 2018-19 remains a big question

[I]  Why investors, not banks may play crucial role in next financial crisis

[I]  24.5% more consumers in retail lending, delinquency rates declined: CIBIL

[I]  How new technology is helping the Met department to make accurate forecasts

[I]  Internet security: Rising cyber threat in India

 

MARKETS (8:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10665;  USDINR DGCX: 69.2425;  DJIA Mini: 24198;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7532;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22177;  EUR-USD: 1.1570; Crude Oil (WTI): 72.58;  Gold (Spot): 1253          

Best Regards, ARBIND

28 Jun 2018