THIS WEEKEND LET US PRAY FOR THE THINGS WE TAKE FOR GRANTED

Macro Economic News 19 May 2018

 

White House is sticking by its story that China offered to cut its trade surplus by $200 billion whereas China begs to differ.  In the latest setback for agriculture US failed to pass $867 billion farm bill. Virtual currencies dropped by $45 billion over the past week. Over the next few years, the Pentagon is poised to spend almost $1 billion for a range of robots designed to complement combat troops. Beyond scouting and explosives disposal, these new machines will sniff out hazardous chemicals or other agents, perform complex reconnaissance and even carry a soldier’s gear.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Blackstone sells out of Hilton Worldwide

[I]  Wary EU powers find common ground with Kremlin

[I]  Dark factories: labour exploitation in Britain’s garment industry

[I]  China offers trade olive branch by scrapping tariffs on US sorghum

[I]  Bulgaria to host contentious China summit

[I]  EU launches package to counter US sanctions on Iran

[I]  Germany hits back at Trump over defence spending

 

REUTERS

[I]  India and EU give WTO lists of U.S. goods for potential tariff retaliation

[I]  India's bond borrowing plan to stay on course - official

[I]  Two weeks on, Hawaii residents look for 'normalcy' amid ash, lava

[I]  China's Q2 GDP growth seen easing to around 6.7 percent - official think tank

[I]  China's second quarter GDP growth seen easing to around 6.7 percent - official think tank

[I]  China says opening up of financial sector will need reciprocity

[I]  Take Five: World markets themes for the week ahead

[I]  Analysis: Why Turkey and Argentina are the main emerging market weak links

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Gold Bulls Push for the Exits on Strong Dollar and Lack of Fear

[I]  Oil Posts Sixth Straight Weekly Gain After Touching $80

[I]  Credit Suisse Seeks Larger Share of Burgeoning Debt Swaps Market

[I]  Investors Bet on Fresh Stock Volatility Like It's August 2016

[I]  This Is the Week That Markets Started Paying Attention to the End of Easy Money

[I]  Argentine Peso's Apparent Calm Masks Volatility

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Sees No Need to ‘Scramble’ to Hike Rates

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Mortgage Rates Hit Seven-Year High as Ultracheap Era Ends

[I]  China Agrees to Buy More U.S. Goods and Services

[I]  IMF Begins Work on Bailout for Argentina, With U.S. Backing

[I]  Trump Trade Chief Says ‘Nowhere Near’ a Deal on Nafta

[I]  U.S. Household Wealth Rises Largely Among Older Borrowers

[I]  U.S. Birth Rate Drops to Record Low

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Making sure the girl child goes to school

[I]  India is a huge market for VC investments: NITI Aayog CEO

[I]  New accounting standard proposed for financial instruments

[I]  It’s high time we developed a fixed income market

[I]  54 lakh ha covered as kharif sowing picks pace; cane area up

[I]  Higher cane subsidy needed: Pawar

[I]  Met Dept puts Arabian Sea under watch for fresh ‘low’

[I]  Mortgage guarantee, a boost to home loan lenders

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Saudi Arabia gives assurances on supply as oil hits $80 per barrel

[I]  Platinum sales expected to rise 30% in 2018

[I]  Sugar exports yet to start despite sops to farmers

[I]  Forex reserve down for fourth week; falls by $1.24 billion to $417.7 billion

[I]  India has no plans to cancel bond auctions despite spike in yields

[I]  Government keeps selling price of PDS grains unchanged for 1 more year: Ram Vilas Paswan

[I]  Currency situation normal, ATMs functioning well: DEA Secretary

[I]  Rise in crude prices poses risk to India's current account deficit: Report

[I]  South Korean Fresh fruit to debut in India

[I]  US moves WTO against India’s export schemes

[I]  India's oil import bill to go up by $25-50 bn this fiscal: DEA Secy

[I]  Inflation to edge higher; May CPI likely around 4.6-4.7%: Report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  With NCLT, NCLAT closing for vacations, insolvency resolutions face delays

[I]  Fire sale by MFs spells trouble for portfolio management services

[I]  As crude hits $80 a barrel, oil import bill may cost govt up to $50 bn

[I]  Indian e-commerce industry is expected to cross $100 billion mark by 2020

[I]  Ethanol blending programme to get policy boost as crude oil prices soar

[I]  Monsoon to hit Kerala coast on May 29, three days ahead of schedule

[I]  RBI manages to sell entire stock in Friday's Rs 120-bn bond auction

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 May 2018

WISH, THIS DAY BLESSES US WITH FULLNESS IN EVERYTHING IN EVERY WAY

Macro Economic News 18 May 2018

 

The U.S. says China has offered a $200 billion cut in its trade surplus with the world’s largest economy, while Trump has told reporters that he doesn’t consider Libya a model for denuclearization negotiations with North Korea. Debt levels that quadrupled in a decade have made emerging markets vulnerable to tightening financial conditions in the era of rising U.S. interest rates, Fitch Ratings said. Outstanding debt securities from developing nations have ballooned to $19 trillion from $5 trillion a decade earlier. Despite the development of local-currency bond markets, borrowers will be hobbled by higher external borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and slowdown of capital inflows.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Iran turmoil and Venezuela collapse send oil above $80 a barrel

[I]  Political angst fails to knock the shine from Italian stocks

[I]  Italian system threatens populist vision

[I]  North Korea’s summit threats bode ill for nuclear deal 

[I]  US and EU head for showdown over shutting Iran off from finance

[I]  Brussels acts against six states for ‘persistent’ air pollution

[I]  UK ministers close to agreement on Irish border ‘backstop’

[I]  Young left out of US boom in housing wealth

[I]  Nafta talks set to drag in to next year after missed deadline

[I]  Hidden value in phones could ‘cut US trade deficit in half’

[I]  Falling US birth rate imperils welfare programmes

 

REUTERS

[I]  CCI ruling could cause 'irreparable' harm - Google

[I]  Saudi Arabia gives assurances on supply as oil hits $80 per barrel

[I]  China offering Trump package to slash U.S. trade deficit, officials say

[I]  China offering Trump package to slash U.S. trade deficit, officials say

[I]  Some U.S. House Republicans see progress on 'Dreamer' immigration deal

[I]  U.S. House panel hopes to vote soon on bill tightening foreign investment

[I]  U.S. ends practice that gave some immigrants reprieves from deportation

[I]  India's state power plants resume coal imports amid domestic shortages

[I]  EU heads discuss bold-or-fold strategy toward Trump tariffs

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Reasons Why Global Growth Is Speeding Up, Not Slowing Down

[I]  Icahn ‘Strongly’ Protests AmTrust Deal to Take Insurer Private

[I]  Brokers Wary of Trading Snags as China's Stocks Go Global

[I]  China Offered Trump $200 Billion Cut in U.S. Trade Deficit, Official Says

[I]  China's Bond Market Is a Real Minefield for Investors

[I]  A Warning Signal for Global Stock Markets Is Flashing in Japan

[I]  Hong Kong's Retailers Ride High on Shopping Boom

[I]  Oil's Rally Above $80 Stokes Fears That Demand Will Suffer

[I]  Pope Calls Derivatives Market a ‘Ticking Time Bomb’

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Household Wealth Rises Largely Among Older Borrowers

[I]  Farms, Factories Won’t Meet U.S. Goal to Cut China Deficit

[I]  U.S. Workers Already Feel the Effects of Trade Tensions

[I]  Japan Considers Retaliation Against U.S. Steel Tariffs

[I]  U.S. Birth Rate Drops to Record Low

[I]  Argentina’s Economy Is Near Crisis. Will a Bailout Be Big Enough, Fast Enough?

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rise, But Hover Near Recent Lows

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Crude @ $80 gives Govt the jitters

[I]  Mandi Tax can stay, says Law Ministry

[I]  Centre promises help to 11 PSBs under PCA net

[I]  Centre unveils eSIM norms

[I]  New biofuel policy to boost private investments in ethanol production

[I]  IBC is still at a nascent stage, will evolve to resolve stressed-asset cases: Amitabh Kant

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  $15 billion bond-purchase binge seen in India to cap yields

[I]  US yields at 3.5% would spur stock exodus: Credit Suisse

[I]  India raises Iran oil imports in April to highest since Oct 2016 as U.S. sanctions loom

[I]  Private sectors of India, US and Japan have key role in development of Indo-pacific: Official

[I]  Andhra Pradesh promotes electric vehicles with fiscal sops

[I]  Legal shield in the works for foreign investments

[I]  Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code to end crony capitalism in India: Niti Aayog

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  NHAI soon to rank roads, economic corridors for safety, better mobility

[I]  Centre may ask RBI to ease prompt corrective action framework

[I]  In-flight connectivity: Telecom companies are not enthusiastic

[I]  Vehicle scrapping policy will lead to 20 dismantling units in India

[I]  Crude breaches $80 a barrel, pressure on RBI to hike rate

[I]  Rs 4 a litre hike in petrol, diesel prices in offing, say brokerage firms

[I]  The debt pile: IMF sounds a warning about growing levels of debt

 

 

MARKETS (8:30 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10674;  USDINR DGCX: 67.9175;  DJIA Mini: 24760;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7755;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22896;  EUR-USD: 1.1800; Crude Oil (WTI): 71.63;  Gold (Spot): 1288          

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 May 2018

WISH, THIS DAY GRACES US WITH THE SPIRIT OF WISDOM AND REVELATION

Macro Economic News 17 May 2018

 

Trump tempers North Korean summit cancelation concerns. Amazon takes its battle with Alibaba onto the Chinese e-commerce giant’s home turf. And U.S.-China trade talks get going. The economic data calendar includes Australia’s jobs report, Japanese machine orders, Singapore export data and Malaysian GDP. Indonesia’s central bank policy decision will be in focus after the rupiah tumbled to a 31-month low amid a global pummelling of emerging-market currencies that was spurred by surging U.S. bond yields; Bank Indonesia is expected to raise its benchmark by a quarter point to 4.5 percent, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Total warns of Iran pullout over US sanctions threat

[I]  US brushes off North Korean threats to pull out of summit

[I]  Big Four accountancy firms plan for forced break-up

[I]  Europe’s leaders patch differences to tackle Trump on trade

[I]  Balkan states’ drive to join the EU faces hurdles

[I]  Top ECB official calls for accelerated banking union drive

[I]  Japan’s economy shrinks for first time since 2015

[I]  UK breaks lending drought for Zimbabwe with $100m loan

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's small businesses find credit in short supply after mega-fraud

[I]  Japan plans retaliatory tariffs against United States: NHK

[I]  Tillerson warns of U.S. ethical crisis, in apparent swipe at Trump

[I]  U.S., China to launch trade talks; China hawk Navarro's role reduced: officials

[I]  Weak currency will further curb Indian palm oil imports: industry

[I]  EU heads discuss bold-or-fold strategy toward Trump tariffs

[I]  U.S. pushing for NAFTA deal as Thursday deadline approaches

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong Spends $1.2 Billion Defending Its Currency Overnight

[I]  When Market Pessimism Becomes a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

[I]  Chinese Firms Eye Frankfurt Listings to Boost European Fortunes

[I]  Argentina to Accelerate Deficit Reduction as Part of IMF Talks

[I]  U.S. Auto Safety Agency Is Probing Utah Crash of Tesla on Autopilot

[I]  Brazil Holds Key Rate, Ending Its Easing Cycle

[I]  Why Gas-Gorging Asia Wants an End to Faraway Pricing

[I]  When Market Pessimism Becomes a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

[I]  Argentina to Accelerate Deficit Reduction as Part of IMF Talks

[I]  Brazil Holds Key Rate, Ending Its Easing Cycle

[I]  The Top Growth Risks Clouding Malaysia’s Outlook With Policy in Flux

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Venezuela’s Creditors Are Cutting Its Crude-Oil Lifeline

[I]  U.S. Industrial Production Rose 0.7%

[I]  U.S. Housing Starts Dropped in April

[I]  Japan’s Longest Stretch of Growth in 28 Years Ends

[I]  Climbing Gas Prices Didn’t Keep Consumers From Spring Spending

[I]  ‘Rules of Origin’ Risk Tripping Up Trade Post-Brexit

[I]  U.S. Workers Already Feel the Effects of U.S.-China Trade Tensions

[I]  Hezbollah Said to Be Laundering Money in South American Tri-Border Region

[I]  Real Time Economics: Treasury Yields Hit Fresh Highs | Nafta Deadline Looms | The Economics of Taylor Swift and Ticket Scalpers

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  President Kovind calls for wider exploration of offshore mineral resources

[I]  Insolvency: Quality, competence drive choice of the resolution professional

[I]  Most FMCG firms beat Street math in Q4

[I]  Foodgrain output at record 279.5 mt in 2017-18

[I]  Pulses imports: Data anomalies, restrictions put trade in a fix

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt to impose deadlines on PSU banks under RBI watch-list in new turnaround plan

[I]  April sees 23% jump in venture investments at $2.4 billion

[I]  Natural rubber production rises marginally while consumption peaks for 2017-18

[I]  Government approves Rs 5,000 crore for dedicated micro irrigation fund

[I]  Gearing up for 2019 elections: Govt eyes advancing completion targets for Housing for All

[I]  Cabinet nod for out-of-court dispute resolution for PSUs

[I]  Cabinet okays use of surplus foodgrain for producing ethanol

[I]  Cabinet approves tax information exchange pact with Brunei

[I]  New labour policy to make Kerala employee-friendly

[I]  Centre proposes charging points for electric vehicles every 3 km

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Cable companies feel the need for speed

[I]  Shipping freight market revives: Indian companies are yet to see the change

[I]  SaaS companies outside India get more overseas revenue, says survey

[I]  Malaysia scraps GST, experts advise caution to Indian govt

[I]  Govt to push wage code, table social security code in Monsoon Session

[I]  At $76.43 a barrel, Indian basket of crude oil rises highest since Dec 2014

 

MARKETS (8:00 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10766;  USDINR DGCX: 67.8700;  DJIA Mini: 24746;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7714;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22811;  EUR-USD: 1.1832; Crude Oil (WTI): 71.71;  Gold (Spot): 1294          

Best Regards, ARBIND

17 May 2018