SELF-TRANSCENDENCE IS A JOURNEY TOWARDS INSIGNIFICANCE AND STUPIDITY - A SACRED REALM. WISHING AN AWESOME WEEKEND AHEAD.
 
Macro Economic News 01 Jun 2019

 

India is likely to see average monsoon rains this year which should support agricultural production and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy, where half of the farmland lacks irrigation. ECB President Mario Draghi will argue that the European economy is humming along, even in the face of pervasive uncertainty. Mexico's president and the top U.S. business lobbying group called on President Donald Trump to back down from a threat to impose punitive tariffs on Mexican imports, in a dispute over migration that could shock Mexico's economy. A U.S. threat to impose escalating tariffs on all imports from Mexico would hit sectors that have had little exposure including importers of autos, crude oil and fruits and vegetables. U.S. inflation picked up in April after a very weak start to the year, a development that could help to ease Federal Reserve officials’ recent concerns about tepid price pressures. U.S. households spent at a slower but still solid pace in April, suggesting consumers can help extend an already decade long expansion amid signs economic momentum is easing.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Mexico calls for ‘prudent’ response to Trump tariff threat

[I]  ‘Green wave’ pushes environment up political agenda

[I]  Saudi Arabia calls for decisive Arab stand against Iran

[I]  US businesses count the cost of Trump’s trade war

[I]  Factory slowdown raises pressures on Beijing leadership

[I]  Economic woes signal gloomy year for Latin America

[I]  Turkish economy emerges from recession

[I]  Markets under pressure as trade war shifts gear

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian growth rate drops behind China to lowest in more than four years

[I]  Trump to end trade privileges for India on June 5

[I]  Mexico, U.S. business groups urge Trump to back down on tariff threat

[I]  U.S. tariff threat backs Mexican president into corner, facing Trump

[I]  India likely to get average monsoon rains in 2019 - IMD

[I]  Draghi to put on brave face despite storm clouds brewing

[I]  Mexico, U.S. business groups urge Trump to back down on tariff threat

[I]  New front in trade war means Fed's dry powder may get burned

[I]  Cherry-picking through Turkey's gloom: The funds staying put while others flee

[I]  U.S. inflation perks ups; slowing economy may limit gains

[I]  Wall Street Week Ahead: Struggles of transport stocks transmit caution to market

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Barrels Into Uncharted Waters With Tariffs as Weapon

[I]  Recession Looms for Mexico With Trump Threatening New Tariffs

[I]  Trump's Mexico Tariffs to Weigh On U.S. Economic Growth

[I]  China Tariff Retaliation Kicks In as Trade War Ratchets Up

[I]  China-to-Mexico Factory Shift Thrown in Disarray by Trump Threat

[I]  Global Yield Curves Blare Louder Alarms About Economic Prospects

[I]  S&P 500 Is at Risk of a 10% Tumble as Trade Angst Deepens, RBC Says

[I]  Italy to Tell EU the Cost of Welfare Tools Will Fall: Ansa

[I]  Chile’s Economy Disappoints as Manufacturing Unexpectedly Drops

[I]  Canada’s Yield Curve Inverts Most in 12 Years on Trump Tariffs

[I]  S&P 500 Closes Out Second-Worst May Since 1960s

[I]  Crude Posts Worst May in Seven Years as Trade-War Anxiety Builds

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Tariffs Would Hit Many Goods That Previously Avoided Penalties

[I]  U.S. Farmers See More Trouble

[I]  U.S. Auto Makers Sweat Under Tariff Threat

[I]  U.S. Railroads Could Get Squeezed

[I]  Trump Threatens Mexico Tariffs Over Migrants

[I]  Inflation Showed Signs of Life in April

[I]  April Consumer Spending Remains Solid

[I]  Trump’s Threat of Tariffs on Mexico Prompts Outcry

[I]  Trump’s Mexico Tariffs Could Hit Americans at Pump

[I]  Tariffs Would Hit Many Goods That Previously Avoided Penalties

[I]  Dallas Fed’s Gauge Showed Underlying Inflation Rose to 2% in April

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  New economic numbers set alarm bells ringing

[I]  India Inc seeks steps to check slowdown, liquidity crunch

[I]  Govt creating 16-lakh-tonne pulses buffer

[I]  Curbing expenditure limits fiscal deficit to the target 3.4%

[I]  Pension scheme for small shopkeepers, retail traders

[I]  Core sector growth slows to 2.6% in April

[I]  Welcome to the world of interoperability

[I]  Bankers mostly optimistic on economy: CII-IBA

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Big bang moves on cards, Modi 2.0 set to hit the ground running

[I]  Monsoon to be below normal over north, south

[I]  India’s unemployment rate at 45-year high

[I]  First challenge for Sitharaman: Growth at 5-yr low

[I]  War-room culture celebrates violence where competition is seen as the enemy

[I]  Not enough women on board for a success story

[I]  India-China trade set to cross USD 100 billion this year: Senior Indian diplomat

[I]  US suspension of trade program with India 'a done deal', says US official

[I]  India's GDP growth slips below 6%; stands at 5.8% in Q4

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Urban unemployment rate at 9.7% in Q3CY18, reveals NSSO report

[I]  GDP growth slips to five-year low on slowdown in investment, manufacturing

[I]  Post SC ruling, Fintechs replacing Aadhaar with innovative e-KYC processes

[I]  Job crisis for real as unemployment hits 6.1%, highest in 45 years

[I]  Retail loan growth slows down to 15.7% in April 2019 from 19% April 2018

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
01 Jun 2019

LIFE IS A PLACE WHERE PEACE IS A PRIORITY. WISHING A HARMONIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 31 May 2019

 

U.S. economic growth remained robust in the first quarter, although fresh government data showed less business investment, a decline in corporate profits and muted consumer spending. Trump administration officials are finalizing a plan to put mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on a sounder financial footing, then return them to private-shareholder ownership. U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on Mexican imports beginning June 10, in an effort to push the country to halt the continued flow of asylum-seeking Central American families to the southern border. Saudi Arabia's king told an emergency Arab summit that decisive action was needed to stop Iranian "escalations" in the region following attacks on Gulf oil assets.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Brazil’s shrinking GDP fuels recession fears

[I]  India’s Modi sworn in for second term as PM

[I]  Fed vice-chair open to rate cuts if outlook dims

[I]  China central bank chief moves to reassure on small banks

[I]  Talks to resolve Venezuela crisis end without agreement

[I]  US launches large-scale project to store renewable energy

[I]  Britain is now stranded in Brexit limbo

[I]  The case for making wellbeing the goal of public policy

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. suspension of trade program with India 'a done deal' - U.S. official

[I]  Global Markets: Shares shaken, bonds surge as Trump stirs recession risk

[I]  China May factory activity shrinks more than expected as exports falter

[I]  Japan's factory output rebounds, but retail sales slow as trade war risks grow

[I]  South Korea's central bank keeps rates on hold as trade pressure builds

[I]  UK PM May's Conservative Party faces historically worst election result in Brexit crisis - poll

[I]  Saudi Arabia says firm stand needed to deter Iran, Iraq demurs

[I]  UK consumer sentiment jumps to eight-month high in May - GfK

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Bank of Korea Leaves Key Rate Unchanged as Risks to Economy Grow

[I]  Wet Weather, Dry Weather, Worms: U.S. Cotton Can't Catch a Break

[I]  U.S. Could Be China's Chicken ‘Supplier of Choice’ If the Trade Spat Ends

[I]  June Could Be the Cruelest Month for China’s Yuan

[I]  Sri Lanka Cuts Key Rate to Spur Growth After Terror Attacks

[I]  Markets Reel as New Front in Trade War Makes a Bad Month Worse

[I]  Bond Funds in India Embrace Duration as Rate Cut Bets Intensify

[I]  Bitcoin's Rally Masks Uncomfortable Fact: Almost Nobody Uses It

[I]  China Revamps Its Tools for Controlling Capital Outflows

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Remained Robust in First Quarter

[I]  Fed’s Patience Tested as Trade Spat Clouds Growth Outlook

[I]  Fed Would Consider Interest-Rate Cuts if Growth Outlook Darkens

[I]  Administration Nears Plan to Return Fannie, Freddie to Private Ownership

[I]  Trump Threatens Tariffs on Mexican Imports in Response to Migrant Surge

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Increase but Remain Near Historic Lows

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Cement industry hopes to cut carbon footprint by 45% by 2050

[I]  Power producers cry foul over high insurance costs

[I]  The two who stole the show at the swearing-in ceremony

[I]  Challenges in giving shape to the economy

[I]  IMF bailouts: Are they really effective?

[I]  In pincer-like movement, monsoon enters Comorin, more parts of Bay of Bengal

[I]  Consolidation is the name of the game in auto industry

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India could be losing fastest growing economy tag to China

[I]  Modi has a Rs 30-tn gift for India's ailing infra

[I]  Amitabh Kant task force proposes policy framework for public-private partnerships and public sector projects

[I]  EU, US oppose India on ending sops that aid illegal fishing

[I]  Railways, roads and highways sector to get the largest chunk of investment in Modi 2.0: ICRA

[I]  Ficci survey puts Q4 GDP growth at 6.5 per cent

[I]  Non-tax revenue target can be raised moderately on spectrum auction

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Employee base is biggest cause of moderation in biz sentiment: Report

[I]  Companies pitch for GST rate cut as Modi govt takes charge second time

[I]  Exim Bank to raise up to $3 billion through capital markets in FY20

[I]  Bond dealers, economists expect RBI to lower policy rate at June 6 meeting

[I]  A near-term policy agenda for the new govt

[I]  China's protectionist move to curb aluminium scrap imports worries India

[I]  Ride the economic growth theme with banking and financial sector funds

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11981;  USDINR DGCX: 69.9350;  DJIA Mini: 25019;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7183;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20740;  EUR-USD: 1.1134; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.07;  Gold (Spot): 1295

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

31 May 2019

NOTHINGNESS IS THE STAGE FOR ENCORE OF EVERYTHING. WISHING A FULFILLING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 30 May 2019

 

A shift has taken place in the economy in recent years: Productivity and growth increasingly flow not from equipment, buildings or hardware, but from instructions, coding and data—in other words, software. A global treaty aimed at protecting workers from violence and harassment is expected to be agreed next month, though some "tricky" issues remain. North Korea accused the United States of showing bad faith in negotiations by conducting nuclear and missile tests and military drills as part of an "evil ambition" to conquer North Korea by force, even while advocating dialogue. Iran sanctions have spurred Europe and India to devise systems to trade with Tehran without using the U.S. currency. Germany’s jobless rate climbed unexpectedly in May, the first increase in more than five years, in a sign that a recent slowdown in growth is spreading further through Europe’s largest economy.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Venezuela data offer rare glimpse of economic chaos

[I]  Brazil’s Mourao seeks to repair ties with China

[I]  Modi under pressure to deliver as economy falters

[I]  US official says Russia may have violated nuclear treaty

[I]  China oil imports from Iran surge 21% in April

[I]  EU and Japan seek to harness Trump’s China trade ire

[I]  China pushes self-made chips in response to US threats

 

REUTERS

[I]  Australia's minimum wage rises slowly as growth, inflation cool

[I]  BOJ policymaker warns against 'reckless' easing to reach price goal

[I]  New Zealand unveils spending boost in 'wellbeing' budget; cuts 2019 growth forecast

[I]  Japan business lobby urges sales tax hike to proceed as planned

[I]  Global pact to fight workplace violence and harassment nears agreement

[I]  North Korea accuses U.S. of 'evil ambition,' says use of strength not a U.S. monopoly

[I]  Oil prices rise after bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. inventories

[I]  UK should be 'cautious' about further minimum wage rises - think tank

[I]  Brexit shutdowns hammer UK car production in April - industry group

[I]  Brexit debacle will continue to hinder FTSE 100 after strong 2019 - Reuters poll

[I]  Pakistan sets 4% GDP growth target for 2020 ahead of austerity budget

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Bond Traders Lay Roadmap to 2% Yield on 10-Year Treasuries

[I]  Global Bond Rally Boosts Chatter the BOJ Will Cut June Purchases

[I]  Here Are the Hedge Funds That Got It Right (and Wrong) in 2018

[I]  Here's What Could Happen If the Yuan Slips to 7 a Dollar

[I]  A Cautionary Rare Earths Tale Can Be Found in Molycorp's Rise and Fall

[I]  Israel Faces Brain Drain as More Educated Citizens Leave Country

[I]  New Zealand Budget 2019: Winners and Losers

[I]  Singapore Says Property Price Curbs Achieved Stabilization Goals

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  If the Economy Booms, Thank Software

[I]  The Dollar Underpins American Power. Rivals Are Building Workarounds.

[I]  German Unemployment Rises for the First Time in Five Years

[I]  Consumer Confidence Rises

[I]  Treasury Declines to Designate China a Currency Manipulator

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt needs to share project risk with private sector: Rajiv Kumar

[I]  Industry body seeks policy support

[I]  Probe thoroughly before calling a firm ‘shell’, Tribunal tells SEBI

[I]  Foreign policy in an uncertain world

[I]  Spectrum availability could be a hurdle for 5G roll out in India

[I]  Monsoon set to enter Maldives, Comorin in 2 days

[I]  RBI tweaks KYC norms for regulated entities

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Panel for eliminating investment rule for fuel marketing licence

[I]  FDI policy review begins as inflows drop despite auto route

[I]  7th Economic Census to cover villages without economic activity

[I]  India’s FDI inflows decline in FY19, Singapore replaces Mauritius as top source of investment

[I]  Fadnavis okays Rs 4.24 lakh crore annual credit plan

[I]  Finance ministry may look at 10-year tax holiday on rental profits earned by builders

[I]  US removes India from currency monitoring list

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Borrowing costs come back to bite corporate earnings of India Inc

[I]  PE funds betting on malls for higher rental yield, rising consumption

[I]  RBI constitutes task force on secondary market for corporate loans

[I]  NHB directs bigger housing finance firms to appoint chief risk officer

[I]  RBI forms committee to review existing state of mortgage securitisation

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11872;  USDINR DGCX: 70.0875;  DJIA Mini: 25129;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7183;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20860;  EUR-USD: 1.1138; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.15;  Gold (Spot): 1282

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 May 2019