WISH THIS WEEKEND WE CHERISH TO EXPRESS OUR DEEPEST GRATITUDE

Macro Economic News 21 Apr 2018

 

Inflation bets send bond yields higher, OPEC isn't in the mood to end oil-supply cuts, and Mark Carney sends a dovish signal. Inflation worries are stalking global bond markets this week as commodity prices push higher on a combination of U.S. sanctions, trade dust-ups, and continuing tight oil supplies. With the 10-year Treasury yield close to its 2018 high, investors once again have the 3 percent mark in focus. BoE dovish stance and RBI hawkish stance signals divergence of regional monetary policies.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Europe in diplomatic push to ease Russia sanctions

[I]  Goodbye Girls: is TV done with the millennial?

[I]  The quiet revolution: China’s millennial backlash

[I]  Young buyers are being priced out of global city property

[I]  Trump accuses Opec of driving up oil prices ‘artificially’

[I]  India’s opposition moves to impeach Supreme Court chief justice

[I]  European Investment Bank pulls back on UK funding after Brexit

 

REUTERS

[I]  North Korea says will stop nuclear tests, scrap test site

[I]  Japan PM Abe says North Korean move is 'forward motion,' but results essential

[I]  Opposition moves to impeach Chief Justice Dipak Misra

[I]  IMF must better police external imbalances: Treasury's Mnuchin

[I]  Japan concedes gap with Trump remains on trade framework

[I]  Australian business tax breaks at risk over bank inquiry

[I]  Japan has no immediate plan to bring U.S. tariffs to WTO

[I]  EU needs 'full' exemption from U.S. tariffs - Le Maire

[I]  U.S. calls China, Russia, Iran, North Korea 'morally reprehensible' on rights

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S., Japan Clearly Differ on Trade Policy, Japan's Aso Says

[I]  Russia Sanctions Spook Palladium Investors

[I]  If Treasuries Reach 3%, That Would Be Big. Here's Why

[I]  North Korea Says It Will Dismantle Nuclear Site, Stop Weapons Tests

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Impasse Shows No Signs of Easing

[I]  France Says West Should Engage With China on Trade, Not Provoke

[I]  Chipmakers Are Fighting a Three-Front Battle This Week

[I]  Philippine Budget Chief Shrugs Off Peso and Inflation Concerns

[I]  IMF Says Bank of Japan Should Stick to Path on Inflation Target

[I]  Bonds Slump in India After RBI Surprises With Hawkish Minutes

[I]  Global Outlook’s Glass Seen Half Full as Markets Fret: Eco Week

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Steel Tariffs Likely to Lead to U.S. Job Losses, Fed Economists Find

[I]  A Trump Win on China Tariffs Could Aid Auto Plants in U.S. —Just Not American Ones

[I]  Manufacturers Fear Uneven Penalties From China Tariffs

[I]  OPEC, Russia Back Continued Oil Cuts, Drawing Trump Ire

[I]  Top ECB Officials Give Different Takes on the Economy

[I]  Japan’s Surging Car Exports Raise Risk of U.S. Trade Fight

[I]  Real Time Economics: Oil Prices Climb | Trade Fight Causes Collateral Damage | Larry Kudlow Steps Into the Spotlight

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  As summer advances, water level plummets in major reservoirs

[I]  Delhi to penalise distributors for unscheduled power cuts

[I]  PFRDA makes bank a/c, mobile number a must for NPS users

[I]  Retrospective tax, labour mobility top issues discussed at UK-India CEOs meet

[I]  SME convention in Delhi next week

[I]  Insider trading: Beware of your ‘likes’ on social media

[I]  Next giant corporations will come from start-ups; AI is the future: NVIDIA

[I]  Report payment discrepancies: Spices Board tells cardamom growers

[I]  Watch out for ‘Naughty’ seas and strong swells: Incois

[I]  Despite weak results for 2017-18, no downgrades of banks: S&P

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Who's losing trade war between US & China?

[I]  India just turned its bankruptcy tragedy into a farce

[I]  Trump slams Opec as cartel pushes harder for high oil prices

[I]  Trump rails against high oil prices, Opec pushes back

[I]  Goldman sees strong oil demand through 2018

[I]  Rupee cracks below 66-level in free fall, plunges 32 paise

[I]  Euro marks time before ECB guidance next week; sterling drops

[I]  How RBI Minutes aided rupee's crash bonds and the rupee

[I]  India bonds set for rout after RBI surprises with hawkish minutes

[I]  Financial Inclusion effort recognised, says Financial Services Secretary Kumar

[I]  India's reforms bearing fruits, make case for more steps: IMF

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Hawkish RBI minutes rattle currency, gilts; rupee plunges to 13-month low

[I]  Google, FB, Visa seek time to set up data centres, to meet RBI officers

[I]  GST forms: Delink provisional credit from tax payment, say stakeholders

[I]  Time's ripe for an independent BRICS credit rating agency: S C Garg

[I]  Ahead of monsoon, rural economy at risk of slowdown over cash crunch

[I]  Try a holiday that lets you learn a new skill even while you unwind

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

21 Apr 2018

WISH WE ALL RISE AND STAND UP WITH TRUST

Macro Economic News 20 Apr 2018

 

Investors turned their attention to tech woes, earnings and M&A, while the U.S. Treasury is considering using emergency powers to curtail Chinese investment in sensitive technologies. The Treasury Department is considering using an emergency law to curb Chinese investments in sensitive technologies in the U.S.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Metal prices surge after US sanctions on Rusal

[I]  Oil climbs towards $75 a barrel to reach highest point since 2014

[I]  North Korea has set no terms for de-nuclearisation, says Moon

[I]  Spanish now richer than Italians, IMF data show

[I]  Lagarde urges greater scrutiny of big tech companies

[I]  African nations slipping into new debt crisis

[I]  Saudi Arabian infighting casts shadow on solar deal

[I]  Trump relaxes conditions over sale of US killer drones

[I]  A second Brexit referendum would tear Britain apart

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI minutes signal shift to hawkish stance

[I]  U.S. Treasury weighs emergency powers to curb Chinese investments: official

[I]  Oil remains close to late-2014 highs as ongoing supply cuts reduce inventories

[I]  Tame inflation keeps pressure on Bank of Japan to maintain stimulus

[I]  U.S. regulator to order jet engines inspection after Southwest explosion

[I]  Trump, Japan's Abe agree to intensify trade talks

[I]  Trade tensions with U.S. testing resolve of Chinese consumers

[I]  Global economy sprinting ahead but trade war could end the race: Reuters poll

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  EU Is Said to Reject U.K. Brexit Plan as Irish Impasse Deepens

[I]  Global Outlook’s Glass Seen Half Full as Markets Fret: Eco Week

[I]  Chinese Firms Have Never Been This Reliant on Foreign Revenue

[I]  China and the U.S. Seek Allies to Strengthen Sides in Trade Tussle

[I]  U.S. Weighs Emergency Powers to Curb Tech Investments by China

[I]  U.K. Auditor Warns Brexit Bill Could Exceed 39 Billion Pounds

[I]  Lagarde Says Trade Spat May Dent Business Confidence

[I]  Abe's Woes Threaten to Put the Yen in BOJ's Inflation Path

[I]  India Central Bank Minutes Surprise With Tilt Toward Rate Hike

[I]  India's Defense Ambitions Boost Metal Maker After Tepid Listing

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  EU Plans to Pitch Trade Bargain to Trump

[I]  Tech Firms Caught in the Middle

[I]  Fed Report: Steel Prices Rose After Tariffs

[I]  Japan’s Surging Car Exports Raise Risk of U.S. Trade Fight

[I]  U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose in March

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  Bank of Canada’s Poloz: Recovering From Nafta Uncertainty Could Take Time

[I]  How More Than a Billion People Got Access to Financial Services in Less Than a Decade

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Higher arrivals pull onion prices down to new low

[I]  Commonwealth, a route to tackle global challenges: UK’s Theresa May

[I]  India, UK bilateral talks: Failure to ink pact on illegal migrants’ return raises eyebrows

[I]  India takes up flag-ripping incident with UK

[I]  Stop sweetening sugarcane, resolve sugar price mismatch for viability

[I]  IMD to give 20-day weather forecasts

[I]  Summer showers on time, normal to excess as forecast

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Soon you will be bonding with fixed income assets in new way

[I]  Haryana to host World Union of wholesale markets in Gurugram

[I]  PE investments soar 76% to USD 4 bn in Mar qtr: Report

[I]  India, Mauritius conclude second round of talks for FTA

[I]  India's growth rate highest among BRICS nations: Report

[I]  India claims top spot for 2018 growth among major economies: Poll

[I]  Withdraw up to Rs 2,000 from PoS machines free of charge: SBI

[I]  Commercial driving licence not needed for taxis, autos

[I]  Centre wants to know students’ bank details

[I]  Taxmen begin raids on hoarders of cash as Centre, RBI pump in notes

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Personal loans account for 96% of new bank loans during FY18: RBI data

[I]  Blockchain is about to revolutionise the shipping industry

[I]  Infrastructure lending is collateral damage in wake of bank scams

[I]  Fintech firms irked at RBI's order to store payments data in India

[I]  India, Taiwan may soon resume discussions on a free trade agreement

[I]  RBI's resolution for bad loans impractical, says power minister R K Singh

[I]  Cash withdrawal still high across the country, more ATMs functioning

[I]  Govt plans changes to insolvency law; homebuyers likely to benefit

[I]  Govt to continue talks with RBI on easing non-performing asset norms

 

MARKETS (08:20 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10546;  USDINR DGCX: 66.1500;  DJIA Mini: 24645;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7300;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22222;  EUR-USD: 1.2338; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.35;  Gold (Spot): 1342

Best Regards, ARBIND

20 Apr 2018

MIRACLES HAPPEN EVERY MOMENT, WISH WE WITNESS IT IN OUR LIFE

Macro Economic News 19 Apr 2018

 

Trump and Abe agree to work closely on trade as speculation heats up over where Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will hold their historic summit. Yield curve angst takes center stage as the central bankers’ debate fear it could invert within six months, while the IMF sees growing risks to global financial stability.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  IMF sounds alarm on excessive global borrowing

[I]  Israel and Russia in delicate balancing act over Syrian war

[I]  Brussels seeks emergency powers to prepare for hard Brexit

[I]  German public sector workers win bumper wage increase

[I]  G7 demands crackdown on North Korean sanction-busters

[I]  China holds naval exercises in Taiwan Strait

[I]  Egypt to slash energy subsidies as it battles to rein in debt

[I]  EU tells US to drop steel tariff threat so talks can take place

 

REUTERS

[I]  India claims top spot for 2018 growth among major economies - Reuters poll

[I]  Sino-U.S. trade-row impact on China's capital flows can be controlled: regulator

[I]  China commerce ministry says ready to deal with any fallout from U.S. trade row

[I]  Trump, Japan's Abe agree to intensify trade talks

[I]  OPEC's new price hawk Saudi Arabia seeks oil as high as $100

[I]  Trump says hopeful U.S. will trim trade deficit with Japan soon

[I]  India, UK governments invest in $711 million Indian renewable energy fund

[I]  Global economy sprinting ahead but trade war could end the race - Reuters poll

[I]  May rate rise less certain after UK inflation cools to one-year low

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Wants One-on-One Talks With Kim at Summit, Report Says

[I]  Iran’s Biggest Threat Has Nothing to Do With Trump

[I]  IMF Warns of Rising Threats to Global Financial System

[I]  U.S. and Japan to Intensify Bilateral Trade Talks Amid Tariffs

[I]  Australian Employment Rises Less Than Forecast

[I]  Americans Spent Record Amounts on Accounting Fees Last Year

[I]  China’s Block on Trash Imports Forces Australia to Bury Recycling

[I]  Crop Targeted by China Is One It Only Started Buying 5 Years Ago

[I]  Here Are the Biggest Tariff Concerns in the Fed's Beige Book

[I]  The World Wants Blueberries All the Time. Chile’s Excited

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Dudley Warns Trade Wars Aren’t Winnable

[I]  Flattening Yield Curve Raises Warning Flag

[I]  Fed Report Finds Steel Prices Rising After Tariffs Imposed

[I]  Bank of Canada’s Poloz: Recovering From Nafta Uncertainty Could Take Time

[I]  Bank of Canada Holds Key Rate Steady at 1.25%

[I]  Weak Inflation Reinforces ECB Caution Over Stimulus Taper

[I]  Is the U.S. Shale Boom Hitting a Bottleneck?

[I]  Why Tech Titans Are Betting on India, in 14 Charts

[I]  How the Tax Cut President Trump Loves Will Deepen Trade Deficits He Hates

[I]  Real Time Economics: China Opens Up | Global Growth Powers Ahead | U.S. Home Builders Step Back

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Clean energy sector misses capacity target for second consecutive year

[I]  India hauls US to WTO against import tariffs

[I]  Now, cabbies can drive with regular licence

[I]  India, UK agree to build on trade, security cooperation

[I]  New Delhi pitches for trilateral trade between India, UK, Africa

[I]  Domestic airlines flew 28% more passengers in March

[I]  Portal launched to woo foreign students for higher education

[I]  Call to make public currency supply data

[I]  RBI warns banks on risks in retail loans

[I]  Cash crunch, more of a structural issue

[I]  Since March last year, ATMs of PSU banks shrink by 2,100

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How HNIs and foundations are supporting advancement of scientific research in India

[I]  Plan on cotton seed prices to come next week

[I]  Importers to gain from 22% dip in Indonesia coal prices

[I]  UK joins International Solar Alliance on the eve of PM Modi's London trip

[I]  Should India look skywards for growth? Here's the link between rain and economy

[I]  Digital not here, there and everywhere, cash still real

[I]  Samurai Loans: Why Indian infrastructure needs them

[I]  Deal with taxpayers courteously: ITD to taxmen

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI firm on new NPA rules, says cos should not take loan contract casually

[I]  Damper for private oil firms as govt decides to retain higher profit share

[I]  Govt to probe suspected hoarding of Rs 2,000 notes, cash withdrawal spike

[I]  With the ongoing cash crunch, digital money gets another lifeline

[I]  Supreme Court says biometric authentication of Aadhaar prone to misuse

[I]  Wrong info in ITR will be reported to employers: I-T to salaried class

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10580;  USDINR DGCX: 65.8050;  DJIA Mini: 24767;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7271;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22238;  EUR-USD: 1.2379; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.86;  Gold (Spot): 1352

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Apr 2018