MIX MELODIES WITH MONSOON THIS DAY. WISHING A FUN-FILLED FRIDAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Jun 2020

 

The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the pandemic though states continue to work through a backlog of claims, new applications for unemployment benefits have trended down since the pandemic triggered a surge in claims at the end of March. The net worth of U.S. households saw a record decline in the first three months of this year as the pandemic sent shock waves through the economy and caused equity prices to plummet. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the administration is weighing getting behind a second round of stimulus payments for Americans as part of an economic relief package Congress is likely to consider next month.

UNCTAD highlights of Global goods trade falling 27% in Q2 after 5% decline in first quarter while Chief Economic Advisor of India says, GDP growth may dip this year whereas CRISIL foresees passenger vehicle volumes to shrink to decadal low in fiscal 2021 and ICRA mentions about average monthly rating downgrades rising 22% amid Covid-19 pandemic.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US stocks slide nearly 6% on worst day since March

[I]  UK in U-turn on full post-Brexit border controls

[I]  Central banks’ appetite for dollars limited as conditions ease

[I]  Spain plans ‘surgical’ measures to keep coronavirus under control

[I]  US new jobless claims at 1.5m as hiring slowly returns

 

REUTERS

[I]  India sets out proposals for tighter governance at banks

[I]  Japan's $94 billion reserve to combat pandemic sparks ire as PM Abe's 'pocket money'

[I]  Japanese women bear brunt of recession as pandemic unravels Abe's 'Womenomics'

[I]  Monsoon rains spread over a third of India, weather office says

[I]  U.S. layoffs easing, labor market distress persists

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China to Ease Rules on Listings for Nasdaq-Like Board This Year

[I]  No Renewed Lockdown, Recovery Reprise, Negative on BOJ: Eco Day

[I]  FX Faces Risk of a Virus Shake-Up Even as Fed Anchor Remains

[I]  India’s Credit Market Has Been Stung by Bankruptcy Suspension

[I]  Rescuing State-Owned Firms Adds to Emerging Market Debt Crisis

[I]  BOJ’s Help for Banks Still Leaves Resistance to Negative Rate

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter

[I]  More Than 1.5 Million Workers Sought Jobless Benefits Last Week

[I]  Trump Says Fed’s Forecasts Are Too Gloomy

[I]  Net Worth of U.S. Households Dived in First Quarter

[I]  Steven Mnuchin Says White House Considering Second Round of Stimulus Payments

[I]  Newsletter: ‘We’re Not Thinking About Raising Rates’

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GDP growth may dip this year: CEA

[I]  ILO probes CTUs’ complaint on unfair labour laws

[I]  Passenger vehicle volumes to shrink to decadal low in fiscal 2021: Crisil

[I]  Monsoon propels itself to within 250 km of Mumbai

[I]  Andhra Pradesh Cabinet approves mega solar power project

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Work from home for rest of yr? IT cos say why not

[I]  Bad bank idea does not find many takers

[I]  Global goods trade to fall 27% in Q2 after 5% decline in first quarter: UNCTAD

[I]  Exports improving, down by 36 pc in May: Piyush Goyal

[I]  With a law, India plans lasting ban on cryptos

[I]  Decriminalisation of minor offences to improve ease of doing business, say experts

[I]  High level empowered group of secretaries to chalk out investment plan, promote Make in India

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI proposes 10-yr term for bank promoter-CEOs, 15 yrs for non-promoters

[I]  Average monthly rating downgrades rise 22% amid Covid-19 pandemic: ICRA

[I]  Irdai issues guidelines for standardisation of indemnity health products

[I]  Worries over liquidity to boost credit card, personal loans: CIBIL

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9618;  USDINR DGCX: 76.0175;  DJIA Mini: 25329;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6051;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22131;  EUR-USD: 1.1290; Crude Oil (WTI): 35.44;  Gold (Spot): 1726

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
12 Jun 2020

SMILE, YOUR EMPATHY BRINGS HAPPINESS TO MANY. WISHING A CHEERY DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Jun 2020

 

The OECD warns of deep economic scars and the global economy suffering the biggest peace-time downturn in a century before it emerges next year from recession. It forecasts, second pandemic wave would inflict big economic cost, and a deeper recession in UK than other rich nations. It cautions - a second wave of lockdowns would deal a terrible blow to a global economy already facing a severe contraction. OECD India economist sees India’s economic growth profile will be ‘W’ shaped if the virus outbreak recurs.

 
The U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it plans years of extraordinary support for an economy facing a torturous slog back from the pandemic, with policymakers projecting the economy to shrink 6.5% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at year's end. FED officials also signalled plans to keep interest rates near zero for years (through 2022) while the U.S. Labor Department said that a “misclassification error” has caused the unemployment rate to be lower than it would have been otherwise. China’s factory-gate deflation accelerates as Industrial prices fell at their fastest pace in more than four years as the pandemic crushed global demand for commodities.

Fitch sees revenue destruction of $8.5 trillion in global corporate portfolio by 2022 while it sees the Indian economy growing 9.5% next fiscal but warns of high debt-to-GDP ratio could strain India's sovereign rating although S&P reaffirms India’s BBB- sovereign ratings retaining at the lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row. A study finds 80 per cent working Indians experiencing income loss while OECD said that India's economy could contract by as much as 7.3% in FY21 in the event of second Covid outbreak.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  OECD warns of deep economic scars from pandemic

[I]  Bumper CEO stock awards dwarf salary sacrifice

[I]  EU states warn Brussels of hard Brexit risk to coronavirus plans

[I]  Trump’s embrace of Modi stokes India-China stand-off in Himalayas

[I]  China faces outcry after premier admits 40% of population struggles

[I]  Germany warns Israel over West Bank annexation plans

[I]  OECD forecasts deeper recession in UK than other rich nations

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fed vows to support U.S. economy's 'long road' to recovery after dire 2020

[I]  OECD sees deepest peace-time slump in a century

[I]  U.S. economy has hit turning point -White House's Kudlow

[I]  Possible Fed move to cap yield rise could further weaken U.S. dollar

[I]  Zimbabwe president says currency under attack as prices spiral

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Emphasizes Inequality in Pandemic-Fueled Job Losses

[I]  Treasuries Bulls Energized After Fed Sees Years of Easy Policy

[I]  New Zealand Retail Sales Jump, But Still Trail Pre-Covid Levels

[I]  Virus Exposes ‘Systemic Risk’ in Australia Pensions Industry

[I]  Even With $500 Billion Forex Warchest, RBI Won’t Let Rupee Climb

[I]  U.K. Realtors See Surging Demand for Green Space in Housing

[I]  Lack of Liquidity in India Market Fuels Woes at Weaker Borrowers

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Project No Rate Increases Through 2022

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic Makes Jobless Rate Calculation Harder

[I]  Pandemic Continues to Weigh on U.S. Consumer Prices

[I]  Coronavirus Obliterated the Best African-American Job Market on Record

[I]  China’s Factory-Gate Deflation Accelerates

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From April

[I]  Newsletter: Uncertain Future, Uncertain Data, Uncertain Forecasts

[I]  Second Pandemic Wave Would Inflict Big Economic Cost, Says OECD

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s economic growth profile will be ‘W’ shaped if the virus outbreak recurs: OECD India economist

[I]  Global aviation industry to notch up $84-billion loss in 2020: IATA

[I]  Fitch sees revenue destruction of $8.5 trillion in global corporate portfolio by 2022

[I]  Fitch sees the economy growing 9.5% next fiscal

[I]  S&P reaffirms India’s BBB- sovereign ratings

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserves closing in on $500-billion mark

[I]  India alleges EU-UK hurting agricultural exports

[I]  80 per cent working Indians experience income loss, says study

[I]  High debt-to-GDP ratio could strain India's sovereign rating: Fitch

[I]  S&P retains India's rating at lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row

[I]  India's economy could contract by as much as 7.3% in FY21 in the event of second Covid outbreak: OECD

[I]  India inflation likely to have hit six-month low in May: Reuters poll

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India to drive global gas demand post-slowdown, output to rise too: IEA

[I]  Indian Oil cranks up refinery runs to over 80% as demand doubles in May

[I]  Household savings may rise in Q1, then moderate, say RBI officials

[I]  Govt considers infrastructure push, direct cash transfers to boost demand

[I]  RBI staff studies on NBFCs call for more policy help to avoid systemic risk

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10074;  USDINR DGCX: 75.9100;  DJIA Mini: 26750;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6262;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22882;  EUR-USD: 1.1376; Crude Oil (WTI): 38.46;  Gold (Spot): 1733

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
11 Jun 2020

MAY YOU RECEIVE WHATEVER YOU ASK FOR. WISHING A HEAVENLY DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Jun 2020

 

Think tank believes that the universal basic income is the key to U.K. Recovery. “Everything was falling into place, and now it’s all paused.” Covid-19 brought a crushing end to one of the most promising economies in recent memory for black workers and business people. That’s one cause of the protests that have roiled the nation. A top economic adviser to President Trump said the White House “would definitely support” another round of aid to shore up the economy as U.S. businesses begin to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank reduces minimum and raises maximum loan limits in an effort to reach more small and midsize businesses. France unveils €15bn aid package to ‘save’ its aerospace industry while Japan's machinery orders, wholesale prices sink as pandemic hits business spending and China producer price deflation deepens on global demand slump. South Korea jobless rate jumps to 10-year high amid pandemic although Australian consumer confidence rebounds as infections contained.

 

Govt has given more leeway and allows startups to issue sweat equity for 10 years after registration. Early-stage investments rise during lockdown, even as investments in start-ups plunge 57% in May while FDI from Cayman Islands to India jumps three-fold to $3.7 bn in 2019-20. India Inc woos labourers with healthcare, hostels to get them back at work. Ironically, India is ill-equipped to live with the virus as the pandemic’s total human cost there has in many ways already been among the worst in the world.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Retail investors bet on bankrupt US companies rising again

[I]  France unveils €15bn aid package to ‘save’ its aerospace industry

[I]  Fed faces tricky balancing act in recession response

[I]  Covid-19 will hit developing countries hard

[I]  Economists are hunting for alternative indicators of recovery

[I]  India is ill-equipped to live with the virus

 

REUTERS

[I]  Turkey relaxes coronavirus restrictions further, vows to boost economy

[I]  Japan's machinery orders, wholesale prices sink as pandemic hits business spending

[I]  China producer price deflation deepens on global demand slump

[I]  Russia, China build case at U.N. to protect Iran from U.S. sanctions threat

[I]  Argentina stirs up giant soy market with state takeover

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China’s Factory Deflation Deepened in May Amid Slow Recovery

[I]  Australian Consumer Confidence Rebounds as Infections Contained

[I]  Central Bank Reprieve, Fed Policy Levers, China’s Risks: Eco Day

[I]  South Korea Jobless Rate Jumps to 10-year High Amid Pandemic

[I]  Universal Basic Income Is Key to U.K. Recovery, Think Tank Says

[I]  Asian Central Banks Exhale as Volatile Capital Flows Stabilize

[I]  Argentina Mulls Export Sweetener to Bridge Gap in Debt Talks

[I]  Most Economists See Bank Of Japan Holding Off Major Action in June

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Obliterated the Best African-American Job Market on Record

[I]  White House Adviser Sees Another Stimulus Bill From Congress

[I]  Shoppers Surprise Retailers by Returning to Stores

[I]  Fed Makes Terms More Favorable for Main Street Lending Program

[I]  Recession in U.S. Began in February, Official Arbiter Says

[I]  Newsletter: It’s Officially a Recession

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  WTO: US, China ask India to roll back telecom tariffs

[I]  Micro, tiny units with no access to bank loans left in lurch

[I]  Low-touch and contactless are the new buzzwords for brands in the time of pandemic

[I]  Early-stage investments rise during lockdown, even as investments in start-ups plunge 57% in May

[I]  Road Ministry extends validity of vehicle, driver documents till Sept 30

[I]  Start-up companies given more leeway to issue sweat equity shares

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Nepal renews call for talks with India

[I]  Global use of euro stabilizes near historic lows, ECB says

[I]  FDI from Cayman Islands to India jumps three-fold to $3.7 bn in 2019-20

[I]  Mumbai most expensive Indian city for expats, 19th most expensive in Asia: Survey

[I]  Some financial offences like bouncing of cheques may be decriminalised

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  IPO offers dry up amid Covid-19 scare; filings with Sebi lowest in 6 years

[I]  FM Nirmala Sitharaman tells banks to improve interest rate transmission

[I]  Govt allows startups to issue sweat equity for 10 years after registration

[I]  India Inc woos labourers with healthcare, hostels to get them back at work

[I]  New business premium of life insurance companies declines 25% in May

[I]  6 PSUs now 'fallen angels' after India's sovereign rating cut: Moody's

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10085;  USDINR DGCX: 75.6650;  DJIA Mini: 27430;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6356;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23115;  EUR-USD: 1.1344; Crude Oil (WTI): 38.24;  Gold (Spot): 1716

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
10 Jun 2020