WISH THIS WEEKEND SHOWERS DRIZZLING FRESHNESS ALL OVER

Macro Economic News 02 Jun 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump may have thought that shifting positions unpredictably was a good dealmaking tactic back in New York, but flip-flops on North Korea, China and now trade with America's closest allies has world leaders saying the U.S. is losing credibility. Trump is planning an unprecedented intervention in energy markets to prop up the coal industry, a key source of climate change-causing pollution and base of his political support.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Global markets rally as US jobs growth calms volatility

[I]  Mammon goes to the Vatican to discuss climate change

[I]  S&P downgrades Deutsche Bank on restructuring plans

[I]  Italy’s new government: Europe on edge after palace takeover

[I]  Brussels vows to hit back at US tariffs with measures of its own

[I]  Migrants risk family separations to enter US

[I]  UK pub companies feel high street chill

 

REUTERS

[I]  Modi calls for unimpeded trade, access in Indo-Pacific

[I]  Delhi's proposal to cap drug costs worries hospitals industry

[I]  In complete reversal, Trump revives summit with North Korean leader

[I]  Trump says U.S. might prefer separate trade deals with Canada, Mexico instead of NAFTA

[I]  In complete reversal, Trump revives summit with North Korean leader

[I]  U.S. isolated at G7 meeting over tariffs: French minister

[I]  Allies in G7 vow to fight U.S. tariffs, see threat to growth

[I]  U.S. Commerce chief set for China trade talks amid metals tariff rancour

[I]  Global trade friction puts Asian factories, export recovery at risk

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Bulls Lose Heart as Mega Producers Signal More Supplies

[I]  Trump Metal Tariffs Send Corporate Canada Reeling in Disbelief

[I]  Kushner Buys 666 Fifth Stake, Ending Rocky Vornado Partnership

[I]  How Trudeau’s Push for a ‘Skinny Nafta’ Deal Hit a Trump Wall

[I]  Mighty May Auto Sales Show U.S. Economy Cruising in Sweet Spot

[I]  It's 2007 Again for Commercial Mortgage Bonds, Moody's Says

[I]  Trade Tension, Italian Political Woes Prompt Emerging-Market Selloff

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Brisk Hiring Pushes Jobless Rate Down to 3.8% as Wages Rise

[I]  Report Keeps Fed’s June Rate Increase on Track

[I]  Trump Raises Prospect of Separate Trade Deals With Canada, Mexico

[I]  Europe Launches WTO Challenge to U.S. Tariffs

[I]  U.S. Tariffs Prompt Anger, Retaliation From Trade Allies

[I]  U.S. Tariff Moves Jolt Nafta Talks

[I]  U.S., China Haggle Over Purchases of American Goods

[I]  U.S. Factory-Sector Activity Accelerated in May

[I]  Trump’s Trade Policies Threaten Millions of Jobs, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Says

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Relief for power sector as court halts RBI’s NPA order

[I]  GST collection in May stands at Rs. 94,000 cr

[I]  Sugar cess gets Law Ministry’s approval

[I]  India to make a case with the US for speedy renewal of tariff preference scheme

[I]  Auto fuel prices down a tad; but cooking gas and ATF to cost more

[I]  Economic development and allocation of resources

[I]  Private lenders surge ahead of PSBs weakened by asset-quality woes

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserves decline by $2.23 bn to $412.83 bn

[I]  Foreigners dump India bonds at record pace as oil woes deepens

[I]  Italy just raised $8.6 billion debt, but prices show faith markets have

[I]  Milk production to grow at 9 per cent annually by 2022 from 6 per cent now: Radha Mohan Singh

[I]  Fiscal deficit in April at 24.3% of BE on lower expenditure

[I]  India pitches for sugar export to China

[I]  India, Singapore to upgrade Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement

[I]  Retail inflation for industrial workers softens to 3.97% in April

[I]  Manufacturing activity slows in May, PMI at 51.2

[I]  Are we facing an oil shock? These signs say yes

[I]  Be an informer to income tax department, earn up to Rs 5 crore

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Residential share will go up to 50% in the next five years, hopes Embassy

[I]  Domestic car sales expand 19% in May

[I]  Govt clears policy to permit quadricycles for commercial use in India

[I]  Slow progress in construction of railway overbridges

[I]  Bond market awaits signals to go dovish

[I]  PSB losses eat up Centre's $13 billion infusion in FY18: Fitch Ratings

[I]  IMD's monsoon, weather forecasts get up close and personal

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Jun 2018

WISHING COMPASSION AND LOVE ALL AROUND YOU

Macro Economic News 01 Jun 2018

 

America’s allies push back against Trump’s latest tariffs as markets voice their displeasure. The EU said it would take immediate steps to retaliate, while Mexico vowed to impose duties on everything from U.S. flat steel to cheese. Canada’s government said it will impose tariffs on as much as C$16.6 billion ($12.8 billion) of U.S. steel, aluminum and other products from July 1. U.S. manufacturers and business groups slammed the Trump decision, calling it a tax on U.S. companies and consumers.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US fires first shot in trade war with allies

[I]  Risks of more drama in repricing of Fed rate policy

[I]  Europe grapples with response to US trade war

[I]  Italy crisis poses dilemma for Draghi over ECB’s next step

[I]  China agrees to loosen foreign investment ‘negative list’

[I]  Poland warns ‘divisive’ EU budget will delay deal

[I]  Japan targets corporate chiefs with plea bargain system

[I]  Oil majors plug into electric vehicle technology

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian economic growth hits highest rate in almost two years

[I]  Indian opposition surprises with election wins but BJP unruffled

[I]  New Zealand push on clean power comes with high political, economic risks

[I]  U.S. tariff move breaks international law: German finance minister

[I]  Inflation in Philippines a faultline for Duterte's "Build, Build, Build" ambition

[I]  Allies in G7 vow to fight U.S. tariffs, see threat to growth

[I]  RBI seen turning hawkish in June, raising rates in August: Reuters poll

[I]  Japan final May PMI confirms slowdown in factory growth

[I]  U.S. consumer spending accelerates; job market strengthening

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  India's Recovering Economy Puts June Rate Increase on Table

[I]  Irish Booze Rules Show British Brewers What Brexit May Bring

[I]  Allies Strike Back, Tight U.S. Jobs, Fed's Rate Path: Eco Day

[I]  Guts of Inflation Data Show Why Fed Hesitant to Declare Victory

[I]  Bond Traders' Fed Wagers Now Hinge on Jobs With Italy Angst Fading

[I]  New Venezuela Creditor Group Emerges to Tackle Defaulted Debt

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report

[I]  U.S. Tariffs Prompt Anger, Retaliation From Trade Allies

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Strengthened Further in April

[I]  U.S. Inflation Firms in April, Stays at Fed Target for Second Month Straight

[I]  India’s Economic Expansion Outpaces Rival China

[I]  Eurozone Inflation Jumps, but Uncertainty Still Clouds ECB Outlook

[I]  Swiss Are World Sports Champs…When It Comes to GDP

[I]  Trade Doubts, Mortgage-Finance Rules Factored Into Canada Interest Decision

[I]  Corporate Profits Boosted in Early 2018 by Tax Cuts

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Finds Manufacturing Shifting Into Higher Gear

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  As Power Ministry seeks to make green retrofitting cost a ‘pass on’, tariffs to rise

[I]  Livestock farmers cry ‘fowl’ over US imports

[I]  No bids for AI; govt to restart process

[I]  ‘Costly crude, weak rupee can pose an immediate threat to growth’

[I]  OECD pegs India’s GDP growth in current fiscal year at 7.4%

[I]  Fresh monsoon ‘pulse’ likely from the weekend

[I]  Banking services remain suspended for second day

[I]  Home finance companies’ margins may come under pressure this year: CRISIL

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's per capita income grows by 8.6% in FY18

[I]  For Iran trade, India may reach out to Europe

[I]  Diversify export basket, focus on new markets to boost engineering shipments: Commerce secretary

[I]  Government keeps FY19 GDP growth estimate unchanged at 7.5%

[I]  Core Sector growth picks up pace in April, rises 4.7%

[I]  India, World Bank sign $500 million loan pact for rural roads

[I]  Plan to import gold from Russia on bond basis to help jewellery sector: Suresh Prabhu

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  GDP grows 7.7% in Q4; India retains world's fastest growing economy tag

[I]  RBI monetary policy: Economists see rate hike latest by August

[I]  Going Green: Any individual or firm can now own a solar park in India

[I]  Expressions of interest for only 13 areas under second oil acreage auction

[I]  Govt meets fiscal deficit target of 3.5% at Rs 5.92 trillion for 2017-18

[I]  Non-food credit demand rises by 10.7% in April 2018: RBI

[I]  India's agriculture growth slips to 4.5% in Q4 on higher base

[I]  RBI withdraws rule exceptions for NBFCs owned by govt

 

MARKETS (8:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10732;  USDINR DGCX: 67.6225;  DJIA Mini: 24473;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7688;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22265;  EUR-USD: 1.1694; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.95;  Gold (Spot): 1299          

Best Regards, ARBIND

01 Jun 2018

WISHING THE DAY CAUSES OPPORTUNITIES CREATING MEANING OF LIFE

Macro Economic News 31 May 2018

 

The case for the PBOC to cut its reserve ratio again is getting stronger. Chinese banks racked up 2.93 trillion yuan ($457 billion) in medium-term loans extended by the PBOC scheduled for repayment during the rest of 2018. And China PMI figures highlight a busy day for economic data in Asia. Italy’s 10-year yield fell as much as 32 basis points.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US commerce secretary rebuffs EU demands for tariff exemptions

[I]  Italian populist parties rekindle talks to form government

[I]  Crackdown on activists highlights Saudi paradox

[I]  Rebound in returns boosts hedge fund manager earnings

[I]  Donald Trump’s tariff threats complicate US-China trade talks

[I]  EU plans €30bn fund to help crisis-hit eurozone countries

[I]  OECD says global economy set to strengthen in 2018 but risks loom

[I]  Germany struggles to fend off assaults from Trump

[I]  China emerges as Asia’s surprise leader on data protection

[I]  US company investment data signal interest rate rises

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's quarterly growth likely topped 7 percent again

[I]  Political worries set to check Indian stock market bulls: Reuters poll

[I]  In symbolic nod to India, U.S. Pacific Command changes name

[I]  High-level U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks get underway in New York

[I]  China says reserves right to retaliate to U.S. actions against its investments

[I]  China May official factory growth at eight-month high, well above forecasts

[I]  U.S. to slap tariffs soon on steel, aluminum from EU: sources

[I]  Japan's factory output growth slumps in April, dims production prospects

[I]  New Zealand plans to invest in more recycling plants as it deals with China waste ban

[I]  China issues rules to get tough on academic integrity

[I]  German jobless rate hits record low in May

[I]  Euro zone, IMF to seek last-minute deal on Greek debt at G7 this week

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  India's Growth Recovery Runs Straight Into Emerging Market Chaos

[I]  China's Factory Gauge Beats Estimates on Global Trade Resilience

[I]  The ECB Is Turning 20, But It Can’t Shake Teenage Angst

[I]  U.K. Consumers, Businesses More Upbeat About Spending Prospects

[I]  China's Role as Creditor to the World is Fading

[I]  Indonesia's Two Interest-Rate Hikes May Not Halt Rupiah's Rout

[I]  Treasury Volatility Reawakens With Biggest Jump Since 2016

[I]  China's Factory Gauge Beats Estimates on Global Trade Resilience

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Corporate Profits Boosted in Early 2018 by Tax Cuts

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Finds Manufacturing Shifting Into Higher Gear

[I]  U.S. Planning to Hit EU With Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

[I]  Fed Backs Easing Volcker Rule Restrictions on Big Banks’ Trading

[I]  Who’s Most Vulnerable to Italy’s Troubles? Europe’s Banks

[I]  Private Sector Added Fewer Jobs in May

[I]  U.S. Catches China Off Guard With Plan to Move Ahead on Trade Curbs

[I]  Rural America Has Jobs. Now It Just Needs Housing

[I]  Then and Now: The Italian Crisis in Seven Charts

[I]  Bank of Canada Signals Rate Rise Could Come Soon

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S. Threatens Tariffs, Italy Rattles Markets

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Waterways to be top priority, says Gadkari

[I]  Growth in Q4 of FY18 may spring a positive surprise

[I]  ‘SME market lends confidence to growing entrepreneurs’

[I]  Sub-par rain in August may impact early kharif crop

[I]  Wage demands give Kerala’s plantation sector the chills

[I]  Will India’s coal plants be left high and dry?

[I]  ‘E-commerce is changing the skill requirements in logistics’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India won’t levy duty on solar gear imports

[I]  Tea output may fall 25% due to dry spell

[I]  Government refutes exporters’ claim on pending GST refunds

[I]  Watch: Moody's slashes 2018 India growth forecast to 7.3%

[I]  Exports from SEZs rise 5% to Rs 20,548 cr in April: EPCES

[I]  WTO to set up dispute panel on India-US case on export subsidies

[I]  India pitches for WTO talks on checking theft of traditional knowledge

[I]  New policy on electronics likely in two months: IT secretary

[I]  Govt promises to disburse exporters’ Rs 20,000 crore refunds

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Bank strike: Digital operations, delayed salaries to give some pain ahead

[I]  Angel investors not cheering tax exemption, reluctant to share bank details

[I]  Too many payment systems: RBI deputy governor B P Kanungo

[I]  WTO to set up dispute panel on India-US case on export subsidy dispute

[I]  South & NE may get lesser rains than north and central India: IMD

[I]  Moody's cuts India's growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% on higher oil prices

[I]  India, Indonesia sign 15 strategic pacts, including one on defence ties

 

MARKETS (8:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10648;  USDINR DGCX: 67.6875;  DJIA Mini: 24647;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7680;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22112;  EUR-USD: 1.1669; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.13;  Gold (Spot): 1304          

Best Regards, ARBIND

31 May 2018