WISHING A SMILING SATURDAY, LEADING TO A WONDERFUL WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 18 Jan 2020

 

The US Job openings declined sharply in November, a sign of weakening employer demand that could restrain job growth in 2020. Globally funds are pile into gold, commodities and inflation-protected bonds as hedges for price rises and Investors are heading back into emerging markets, taking political risks. Interestingly the U.S. housing starts at 13-year high with factory output gains while home prices rise the most in 19 months. Think-tank shows reversal of historic work patterns is exacerbating income inequalities whereas volatility in currencies worldwide slumps to lowest level ever. While millennials are going beyond London, New York for luxury realty shopping, UN report highlights India’s need for continued structural reforms to boost growth. Officials in India and the U.S. are preparing a limited bilateral trade agreement that could be unveiled during a visit by President Trump to New Delhi in the coming weeks. Trade ministers from India and Malaysia are likely to meet on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos next week amid a palm oil spat between the two countries. Wheat sowing area touches 33 million hectare, raises hopes of record output and FinMin has revised the target for GST collection in FY20 aiming to mop-up Rs 1.5 trn.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Italy’s collapsing birth rate rings demographic alarm bells

[I]  Perilous economy leaves women having to choose between motherhood or employment

[I]  Investors heading back into emerging markets are taking a political risk

[I]  Fed’s embrace of higher inflation is ‘momentous’ for markets

[I]  Funds pile into gold, commodities and inflation-protected bonds as hedges for price rises

[I]  Think-tank shows reversal of historic work patterns is exacerbating income inequalities

[I]  Brazil could see $10bn hit from US-China trade truce

[I]  Latin American country had been a big beneficiary of Sino-American economic conflict

 

REUTERS

[I]  To defuse palm row, Davos diplomacy likely between India, Malaysia

[I]  Trump, EU chief to meet in Davos as U.S tariffs loom over digital tax - sources

[I]  No Big Ben bongs: UK government plans light show to mark moment of Brexit

[I]  U.S. housing starts at 13-year high, factory output gains

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Treasury’s 20-Year Reboot Drives Troubleshooting Across Curve

[I]  Charting the World Economy: 2020 Banking on Friendlier Trade

[I]  U.S. Home Prices Rise the Most in 19 Months

[I]  Venezuela Cash Hoard Sinks Below $1 Billion With Gold Locked Up

[I]  U.S. Job Openings Decreased in November to Almost Two-Year Low

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Remained Elevated at Beginning of 2020

[I]  The BOE Is Fast Running Out of Excuses Not to Cut Interest Rates

[I]  Volatility in Currencies Worldwide Slumps to Lowest Level Ever

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Wields U.S. Economic Might in Struggles With Adversaries, Allies

[I]  Employers Pull Back on Posting New Jobs

[I]  China’s Slowing Growth Underlines Stress Facing Its Economy in 2020

[I]  U.S., India Draft Trade Pact for Unveiling in Possible Trump Visit

[I]  Fed’s Harker: Data Will Determine Course of Interest Rate Policy

[I]  What’s Next on the President’s Trade Agenda? Europe

[I]  Newsletter: Has the Global Economy Already Bottomed Out?

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Natural resources available here must not be imported: Pralhad Joshi

[I]  Finance Minister resets GST collection target upward for January, February; expects to get ₹10,000 crore more

[I]  UN lowers India GDP growth forecast for current fiscal

[I]  Government keen to push reforms in aviation sector

[I]  ‘Centre is taking steps to revive consumption, growth’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve rises $58 million to record high of $461.21 billion

[I]  Wheat sowing area touches 33 million hectare, raises hopes of record output

[I]  India needs continued structural reforms to boost growth: UN report

[I]  Progress of top development schemes remains constrained in India: Study

[I]  Govt forms society to run centre-funded farmer schemes

[I]  Foreign companies will be taxed for money earned by Indian arms

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Millennials go beyond London, New York for luxury realty shopping

[I]  FinMin revises target for GST collection in FY20; aims mop-up at Rs 1.5 trn

[I]  Budget wishlist: Exporters seek clarity on slow tax refunds, key schemes

[I]  RBI buys gold for forex reserves after 5 months, now holds 625 tonnes

[I]  US job openings post biggest drop in more than four years in November

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
18 Jan 2020

LET YOUR SMILE MAKES ALL SITUATIONS, STATUS AND STANDINGS SMILING. WISHING A CHARMING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Jan 2020

 

Climate crises in the next 30 years may resemble financial crises in recent decades: potentially quite destructive, largely unpredictable and, given the powerful underlying causes, inevitable. Germany is set to become the first country to drop both nuclear and coal power by 2038. U.N. cautions Global economy is anaemic and incomes are likely to suffer while Reuters poll finds Euro zone slowdown has bottomed but no big bounce in sight. ‘American Exceptionalism’ fades for now as U.S. growth weakens however, economists don’t see any U.S. growth bump from U.S.-China deal and they expect U.S. growth to continue this year and business investment to increase, but the pace of hiring is seen slowing. U.S. Senate passes North America trade deal, Canada still to approve, that replaces Nafta marks a rare moment of bipartisan cooperation on Capitol Hill. The U.S. government will begin issuing 20-year bonds in the first half of 2020. Foreign treasury pile shrinks with China further trailing Japan Bank of England is expected to hold steady on January 30 but chance of a cut high while Turkey delivers fifth rate cut in a row in effort to boost growth and Bank of Korea holds rate amid economic green shoots. Higher hedging costs risk derailing India’s Dollar debt binge. UN lowers India growth forecast and expects momentum to pick up in 2020 while Finance ministry exempts mutual funds from foreign-investor status.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Germany strikes €44bn deal to phase out coal use by 2038 

[I]  UK regulators launch fresh push to switch away from Libor

[I]  EU trade commissioner criticises US-China trade deal

[I]  Turkey delivers fifth rate cut in a row in effort to boost growth

[I]  Britain’s retail banking reform has fallen short

 

REUTERS

[I]  India, U.S. closer to resolving some trade issues - Piyush Goyal

[I]  China posts weakest growth in 29 years as trade war bites, but ends year on firmer note

[I]  Singapore December exports snap nine-month losing streak, but concerns remain

[I]  U.S. Senate passes North America trade deal, Canada still to approve

[I]  Brazil's tribes stride into digital age to defend their culture, forests

[I]  China's 2019 property investment up 9.9% year-on-year, sales fall

[I]  Bank of England to hold steady on January 30 but chance of a cut high - Reuters poll

[I]  Euro zone slowdown has bottomed but no big bounce in sight: Reuters poll

[I]  Global economy anaemic and incomes likely to suffer, U.N. says

[I]  Germany adds brown coal to energy exit under landmark deal

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China’s Economy Grew 6% in Fourth Quarter as Demand Stabilized

[I]  ​​​​​​​Bank of Korea Holds Rate Amid Economic Green Shoots

[I]  ‘American Exceptionalism’ Fades for Now as U.S. Growth Weakens

[I]  Higher Hedging Costs Risk Derailing India’s Dollar Debt Binge

[I]  Foreign Treasury Pile Shrinks With China Further Trailing Japan

[I]  Economists Don’t See Any U.S. Growth Bump From U.S.-China Deal

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Consumer Spending Solid at End of Holiday Shopping Season

[I]  Treasury to Issue New 20-Year Bond in First Half of 2020

[I]  Trump Readies Nominations of Shelton, Waller for Federal Reserve Board Seats

[I]  WSJ Survey: U.S., China Agreement Will Boost Growth

[I]  For Economy, Climate Risks Are No Longer Theoretical

[I]  Senate Passes USMCA, New North American Trade Pact

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ‘Centre is taking steps to revive consumption, growth’

[I]  ‘Banks’ financial health has improved and are now in a position to lend more’

[I]  Maharashtra govt sets up panel to extend relief to farmers with loans of over ₹2 lakh

[I]  Australia gets some relief as thunderstorms put out some bushfires

[I]  India not to be directly affected by US-China deal

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Cautious optimism lifts Asian currencies after Sino-US trade deal

[I]  Weak economy likely to halt jump in company bond yields

[I]  Cheaper loans for exporters in the works

[I]  UN lowers India growth forecast; expects momentum to pick up in 2020

[I]  Govt considering hike in customs duty on toys, certain paper, footwear products in Budget

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Centre likely to impose 25% safeguard duty on single-mode optical fibre

[I]  Stock of imported edible oil in pipelines, at ports falls to multi-year low

[I]  Govt plans increase in thickness of polyethylene bags to 125 microns

[I]  Finance ministry exempts mutual funds from foreign-investor status

[I]  Sebi's proposal to put cap on fee to put investment advisers in a lurch

[I]  In a major reform, Sebi allows stock exchanges to launch 'options on goods'

[I]  MF industry seeks LTCG easing in commodity, gold ETFs, scrapping of STT

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12348;  USDINR DGCX: 70.0825;  DJIA Mini: 29279;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7559;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 24050;  EUR-USD: 1.1135; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.54;  Gold (Spot): 1554

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
17 Jan 2020

LOVE THOU SMILE; GENEROUS, PROLIFIC AND PROFOUND, STILL TENDER. WISHING A CHARISMATIC DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Jan 2020

 

The US and China signs first phase of the deal which aims to boost sales of U.S. goods and services to China, better protect intellectual property of companies operating in China and further open Chinese markets, especially in financial services. While Argentina posts year-end inflation of 54%, highest in almost 30 years, U.S. Consumer Inflation Moderates in 2019 complicating the outlook for FED officials. With interest rates stuck around zero, and inflation seemingly subdued, long exercised ability of The Fed and other central banks, to influence over booms and busts, is shrinking. With environmental risks jumping to the top of the concerns of government, academic and business leaders over a 10-year horizon, EU warns of ‘tectonic’ shift as economy goes green while Inflation fears return to haunt investors in Europe’s East. With GDP growth of 0.6% last year, Germany’s economy expanded at its slowest rate since 2013, the height of the Eurozone’s debt crisis with its flagship auto industry getting hindered by trade disputes and China’s slowdown. State Grid, China's largest utility company, warns China GDP at risk of slipping to 4% for next five years.  India is planning a new law to safeguard foreign investment by speeding up dispute resolution, aiming to attract more capital from overseas to boost stuttering domestic growth. India's exports decline by 1.8 per cent for fifth straight month in December and import falling by 8.8 per cent resulting trade deficit shrinking to $11.25 billion.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US and China sign deal to pause trade war

[I]  Angela Merkel warns EU: ‘Brexit is a wake-up call’

[I]  House votes to trigger Trump impeachment trial

[I]  State Grid warns China GDP at risk of slipping to 4%

[I]  Germany’s economic growth slows to six-year low

[I]  EU warned of ‘tectonic’ shift as economy goes green

[I]  Soft services sector weighs on wholesale US inflation in December

 

REUTERS

[I]  India plans new law to protect foreign investment

[I]  U.S. and China tiptoe around holes in new trade agreement

[I]  India's exports decline for fifth straight month in December, trade deficit narrows

[I]  Turkish economy to pick up some pace in 2020 after stumble: Reuters poll

[I]  Merkel, state leaders agree terms of brown coal exit: document

[I]  China's December home price growth hits slowest annual pace in almost 1-1/2 years

[I]  With a mixture of fanfare and grievance, Trump signs U.S.-China trade deal

[I]  China 2019 GDP estimated to have grown more than 6% - Vice Premier Liu He

[I]  China's 'market condition' caveat on U.S. ag purchases adds to trade deal doubts

[I]  Instant View: Signed U.S.-China trade deal removes one risk factor for markets

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Indonesia to Become Southeast Asia’s Biggest Stock Market

[I]  Trump’s Economic Data Plan Is a Recipe for Chaos

[I]  The $95 Billion Centerpiece of the Trade Deal Is Already In Doubt

[I]  China to Hit 2019 Economic Targets as Trade Deal Lifts Outlook

[I]  Inflation Fears Return to Haunt Investors in Europe’s East

[I]  U.K. Productivity Woes More Costly Than Worst-Case Brexit

[I]  U.K. Housing Market Sees Bounce After Johnson’s Election Victory

[I]  Argentina Posts Highest Year-End Inflation in Almost 30 Years

[I]  Rating Cuts Ratchet Up Pressure on Japan’s Regional Banks

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S., China Sign Agreement Easing Trade Tensions

[I]  The Era of Fed Power Is Over. Prepare for a More Perilous Road Ahead.

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Reports Continued Modest Growth

[I]  Environmental Risks Loom Large Among Economic Forum Members

[I]  German Growth Falls to Six-Year Low, Hit by Manufacturing Recession

[I]  Fed’s Harker Says Rates Should Hold Steady For Now, Money Markets Calm

[I]  Fed’s Kaplan Warns Central Bank Actions Are Driving Up Risk Taking

[I]  Fed's George: It's ‘Appropriate' to Hold Rates Steady for Now

[I]  U.S. Consumer Inflation Moderates in 2019

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India's exports fall for fifth straight month in December by 1.8 per cent

[I]  Imports fall 8.83 per cent, trade deficit shrinks to $11.25 billion

[I]  Government will put restrictions on imports of products under ‘others’ category: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Government drafting national fisheries policy with Rs 45,000 crore budget

[I]  Govt offers 11 oil and gas blocks in 5th bid round

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  LTCG to go? Govt weighs move to win back upset FIs

[I]  India plans law to safeguard foreign investment

[I]  Opec raises oil demand outlook for 2020

[I]  RBI’s Operation Twist just started and it may be out of bonds

[I]  SEZ eligibility may now depend on new jobs, R&D and not forex

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  7,990 business people committed suicide in 2018; up 2.7 per cent: NCRB data

[I]  Govt plans restrictions on imports of products categorised as 'others'

[I]  Govt may propose GST refunds on capital goods purchases to exporters

[I]  New PM house, PMO & Parliament before 2024; ministries along central vista

[I]  NBFCs' asset quality deteriorates, delinquency rate rises by 50 bps in Q3

[I]  Now, switch on/off your card for online payment, set transaction limits

[I]  After slowdown, inflation now presents a new test for food companies

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12389;  USDINR DGCX: 70.8325;  DJIA Mini: 29046;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7568;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23928;  EUR-USD: 1.1153; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.17;  Gold (Spot): 1557

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
16 Jan 2020

MAY THIS DAY, WE START OUR JOURNEY TO NORTH LIKE THE SUN. WISHING ABUNDANCE OF JOY AND FUN THIS HAPPY HARVEST FESTIVAL.

Macro Economic News 15 Jan 2020

 

US, Japan and European Union seek stronger global rules on subsidies and target China with WTO rule change proposal whereas ECB officials see euro-area economy stabilizing at start of 2020. US consumer prices rise less than forecast in December whereas soft consumer prices complicate the outlook for FED officials who are watching for a meaningful pickup in prices. President Trump’s trade war with Beijing reduced the U.S.’s trade deficit with China last year, although Chinese manufacturers still export far more to the U.S. than vice versa. While Chinese export growth slows to 3-year low, India-China trade dips by nearly $3 billion in 2019. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering visiting India next month, for what would be his first visit to the world's largest democracy since he took office three years ago. India's annual electricity demand grows at slowest pace in 6 years and now, while India’s wholesale inflation touches a 7-month high of 2.59% in Dec, SBI's research has estimated that the rate of retail inflation is likely to breach 8 per cent in January - twice the RBI targeted inflation rate of 4 per cent. While SBI report also finds Economic slowdown hitting jobs sector, labour ministry begins talks with industry and the government is likely to come out with a fresh national employment policy (NEP) amid concerns over the high unemployment rate in the country.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Europeans step up pressure on Iran over nuclear deal

[I]  Europe urged to do more with industry data trove

[I]  US, Japan and EU target China with WTO rule change proposal

[I]  Germany signs off on landmark €86bn rail investment

[I]  Indonesia taps Tony Blair to help oversee new capital

[I]  US consumer prices rise less than forecast in December

[I]  Chinese export growth slows to 3-year low

 

REUTERS

[I]  China to ramp up U.S. buys under trade deal, but sceptics question targets

[I]  U.S. will keep in place tariffs on Chinese imports for now - Mnuchin

[I]  U.S. judge puts on hold House lawsuit seeking Trump tax returns

[I]  Trump considering visit to India next month

[I]  U.S. judge puts on hold House lawsuit seeking Trump tax returns

[I]  Trump administration to change economic data release procedures - Bloomberg

[I]  Drag from Trump's trade wars continues to ripple through U.S. economy

[I]  Phase 1 commodity targets likely more than China can chew - analysts

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Won’t Cut More China Tariffs Until After November Vote

[I]  Cheap Natural Gas Could Add 500 Million Tons to U.S. Emissions

[I]  Ecuador Said to Plan IADB-Backed $400 Million Bond for Housing

[I]  Fed Announces Plans For Repo Operations Through to Mid-February

[I]  ECB Officials See Euro-Area Economy Stabilizing at Start of 2020

[I]  A Decade Without Fed Hikes Comes Into View for Bond Investors

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Inflation Moderates in 2019

[I]  Fed's George: It's ‘Appropriate' to Hold Rates Steady for Now

[I]  Fed Adds $82 Billion to Financial Markets

[I]  In a Year of Trade War, U.S. Deficit With China Shrank

[I]  How the U.S. and China Settled on a Trade Deal Neither Wanted

[I]  Newsletter: The Trade Deal No One Wanted

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India-China trade dips by nearly $3 billion in 2019

[I]  WGC chief pitches for duty cut for gold in Budget

[I]  Now, wholesale inflation touches a 7-month high of 2.59% in Dec

[I]  Retail inflation to breach 8 per cent level in January: SBI research

[I]  India, Russia explore North Sea route

[I]  Trump may visit India in February or ‘soon after’ if all goes well with impeachment trial

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's job crisis may go from bad to worse

[I]  Budget 2020 proposal for salaried professionals: PPF, NSC sops on cards to increase taxpayers' savings

[I]  India's annual electricity demand grows at slowest pace in 6 years

[I]  Economic slowdown hits jobs sector: SBI report

[I]  Stagflation threat looms for former world-beating economy India

[I]  How Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities are set to lead the FinTech space in the next 5 years

[I]  Housing ministry launched e-commerce platform for real estate sector

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Share buybacks losing lustre as 20% tax bites; firms await relief in Budget

[I]  Give infrastructure status to data centres, technology firms press DPIIT

[I]  Govt to frame job policy afresh; labour ministry begins talks with industry

[I]  US, Japan and European Union seek stronger global rules on subsidies

 

MARKETS (06:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12365;  USDINR DGCX: 70.9725;  DJIA Mini: 28872;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7562;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23968;  EUR-USD: 1.1130; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.13;  Gold (Spot): 1550

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
15 Jan 2020