WISHING A SUPER SATURDAY AND GRAND WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 29 Sep 2018

 

A key measure of underlying inflation eased in August to its slowest pace in 18 months, suggesting price pressures remain contained as a strong dollar holds down import prices and wage growth stays moderate. U.S. consumer spending cooled slightly in August, but consumer sentiment is sky high heading into the holiday season. GDP growth cooled a bit in the third quarter after a robust April-through-June period, economists say, but should remain well above the sluggish gains posted throughout the economic expansion.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Italy budget rekindles EU fears of populist instability

[I]  The Canadian border city on front line of Trump’s tariff threats

[I]  Argentina turns to duo to save economy after IMF deal

[I]  UK to press for shake-up of Big Four auditors

[I]  China profits from Donald Trump’s UN isolation

[I]  Australia’s ‘culture wars’ threaten its public institutions 

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's shadow banking sector likely to face shake-up

[I]  Brazil's Bolsonaro says he will not accept election result if he loses

[I]  China says 'no cause for panic' over U.S. ties, but won't be blackmailed

[I]  Courting Canada, U.S. and Mexico cancel plans to publish NAFTA texts: sources

[I]  Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply

[I]  Global funds raise U.S. stock holdings to three-and-a-half-year high

[I]  U.S. consumer spending rises, monthly inflation moderates

[I]  German unemployment rate falls to record low in September

[I]  China factory growth seen cooling as U.S. trade dispute intensifies: Reuters poll

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S., Canada In Weekend Dash for Nafta Agreement, Guajardo Says

[I]  China Claims More Patents Than Any Country. Most Are Worthless

[I]  Druckenmiller Sees ‘Massive’ Debt Fueling Next Financial Crisis

[I]  Trillion-Dollar Deficit? Whatever, Says New Washington Consensus

[I]  After Another Quarter of Losses, Is Worst Over for Commodities?

[I]  Emerging-Market Currencies Ride Out Fed Hike, Trade-Row Escalation

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Core Inflation Remained Near Fed’s Target in August

[I]  Consumers Pulled Back Slightly on Spending in August

[I]  Mexico Pushes to Keep Canada in Nafta

[I]  Nafta Isn’t Dead Despite Missed Deadline

[I]  Lower-Income Americans Drive Up Consumer Sentiment in September

[I]  U.S. Economic Growth Slated to Cool in Third Quarter

[I]  House Passes Extension of Individual Tax Cuts

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST mop-up: 25 States in the red, but national shortfall comes down

[I]  Centre lowers H2 borrowing target by Rs. 70,000 cr

[I]  India, Russia may miss signing defence deals worth $8.5 b during Putin’s visit next month

[I]  Price of domestic gas hiked by 9.8%

[I]  Despite ruling, unique ID will continue to simplify KYC

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Brent hits 4-yr high as US sanctions on Iran tighten supply

[I]  Dollar holds firm after upbeat data, hovers near 9-month high against yen

[I]  Agriculture Export Policy likely to be cleared in next few days: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  India's external debt declines 2.8 per cent $514.4 billion at end-June: RBI

[I]  State GST collection showing improvement over last year: Arun Jaitley

[I]  WTO cuts global trade outlook to 3.7% in 2019 as trade tensions escalate

[I]  India story stumbles as cash crunch, trade war fear shackle animal spirits

[I]  Government extends deadline for comment on data privacy framework to October 10

[I]  China should do more investment in India than focussing on exports here: Amitabh Kant

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Midcaps, smallcaps plunge to new lows in biggest monthly drop since 2008

[I]  GST shadow over solar pump scheme, target likely to be missed

[I]  GST council meet: Panel of 7 finance ministers to decide on calamity tax

[I]  Govt extends deadline for comment on data privacy framework to October 10

[I]  Govt should expand coverage of old-age pension, hike amount: activists

[I]  Aadhaar verdict: Can you sue UIDAI and its licensed entities for offence?

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

29 Sep 2018

THIS FRIDAY WILL START A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH ONESELF. WISHING PLEASANT TIME AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Sep 2018

 

GDP growth cooled a bit in the third quarter after a robust April-through-June period, economists say, but should remain well above the sluggish gains posted throughout the economic expansion. As American institutions from the courts to law enforcement have become partisan battlegrounds, the central bank for now is an island of dull, apolitical competence. The number of U.S. existing homes going under contract declined in August for the fourth time in five months, reflecting what appears to be a broader slow-down in the housing market.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Advantage India in struggle with China over Maldives

[I]  Israeli gas exports to Egypt set to start next year

[I]  Beer-loving Bavaria falls for Green party cocktail

[I]  Investors signal confidence in Argentina’s IMF deal

[I]  Iran close to accepting global financial rules as sanctions press

[I]  Chinese household debt hits record high, study shows

 

REUTERS

[I]  Motorcycle firms in Chennai hit by strike over wages

[I]  India will continue to buy Iran's oil: Iranian foreign minister

[I]  Japan's industrial output rebounds in August, outlook in doubt

[I]  U.S. regulator sues Musk for fraud, seek to remove him from Tesla

[I]  U.S. to counter Chinese internet bid in Papua New Guinea: diplomat

[I]  Global M&A volume flattens in third quarter as trade tensions loom

[I]  BOJ debated potential of more tweaks to policy framework in Sept

[I]  Bank of Canada says it will continue to raise interest rates gradually

[I]  Saudi Arabia in short-term oil fix, fears extra U.S. supply next year

[I]  Fed chief Powell signals central bank is done with signalling

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Big Banks Accused of Stock Lending Antitrust Plot Must Face Suit

[I]  Oil Poised for Third Weekly Gain as Traders Brace for $100 Crude

[I]  Australian Probe Into Bank Misconduct to Release Report Friday

[I]  Asia's EM Pain, Tariffs Drag U.S. Growth, India Spirits: Eco Day

[I]  Creditors in China See Strong-Arm Tactics From Local Govts

[I]  Tariffs Start to Drag on U.S. Economy as Trade Deficit Widens

[I]  Powell Emboldens Bond Traders to Wager Inflation Will Stay Tame

[I]  Treasury Yields Just Turned Negative for Europe, Japanese Buyers

[I]  What Happened This Week in the World Economy and Why It Matters

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economic Growth Slated to Cool in Third Quarter

[I]  House Republicans Tee Up Tax Vote Ahead of Midterms

[I]  The Fed Isn’t the Supreme Court. Thank Goodness

[I]  Aircraft Demand Propels Increase in U.S. Durable-Goods Orders

[I]  U.S. Pending Home Sales Fell 1.8% in August

[I]  Fed Raises Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year

[I]  How China Systematically Pries Technology From U.S. Companies

[I]  WTO Cuts Trade Growth Forecast Citing Heightened Tensions

[I]  White House to Raise Pressure on Canada With Mexico-Only Nafta Draft

[I]  As Fed Raises Rates, Consumers Have Yet to Feel the Sting

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  US says no to unconditional withdrawal of penal tariff on Indian steel, aluminium

[I]  Consumer durables companies in a tizzy ahead of festival season

[I]  Price of each product must be lowered in case of GST rate reduction: Profiteering regulator

[I]  WTO lowers trade growth forecast to 3.9 % for 2018

[I]  Economists flag fresh concerns over fiscal deficit, growth prospects

[I]  RBI’s ‘easing’ can release Rs. 2.5-lakh cr into the system

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rising crude in poll time to further erode PE of OMCs

[I]  A tsunami of negatives all set to sink India's bond market

[I]  Tea industry should benchmark itself: Commerce secretary

[I]  India's shadow banking scare could derail its robust growth story

[I]  Higher duties to boost gold trade but take sheen off polished diamonds

[I]  Government may bring legal backing for private companies to use Aadhaar

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI frees up about Rs 2 trillion worth of liquidity for the banking system

[I]  Without flyers, India's regional airlines are still waiting for their UDAN

[I]  Financial companies in a fix over SC's Aadhaar order, suspend eKYC

[I]  Festive season may turn out to be a challenging period for consumer firms

[I]  Govt mulls higher interest subvention covering all exporters to reduce CAD

[I]  Tea Board wants better e-auction system, but won't lead overhaul process

[I]  Centre may expand social audit to most govt schemes to assess ground impact

[I]  MFs up derivatives exposure to hedge against uncertainty in equity markets

[I]  FPIs pull out Rs 196 billion in September; quantum of MF flows slows

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11086;  USDINR DGCX: 72.9125;  DJIA Mini: 26504;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7517;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 24129;  EUR-USD: 1.1645; Crude Oil (WTI): 72.25;  Gold (Spot): 1184

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

28 Sep 2018

YOU HAVE BEEN CHOSEN AND DESTINED FOR GRACE. WISHING A GRACIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 27 Sep 2018

 

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter-percentage point—and officials signaled they want to continue lifting them through the next year to keep a strong economy on an even keel. Beijing is increasingly leaning on an array of levers to extract intellectual property—sometimes coercively—say U.S. companies. China says it’s payment for market access. The phenomenon is central to the trade fight between the two countries.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Federal Reserve raises US interest rates despite trade war concerns

[I]  Exit of central bank chief clears path to Argentina-IMF deal

[I]  UK Brexit proposal would spell ‘end of Europe’, says Le Maire

[I]  Merkel’s loss of right-hand man represents unprecedented revolt

[I]  India’s Supreme Court places limits on digital identity card

[I]  India raises tariffs on non-essential imports

 

REUTERS

[I]  Import tariffs raised on 19 items to tackle rupee slide

[I]  Fed raises U.S. interest rates, sees at least three more years of growth

[I]  Supreme Court imposes curbs on use of Aadhaar

[I]  India expects $100 billion in telecom investments, approves new policy

[I]  Global equities run out of steam, bond yields fall after Fed

[I]  China's August industrial profit growth slips to five-month low

[I]  China leaves rates steady after Fed as two economies diverge

[I]  After Fed, Philippines, Indonesia seen hiking rates; NZ holds the line

[I]  BOK chief says weak inflation, job market obstacles to policy tightening

[I]  China to boost $3.8 trillion digital economy, Xi calls for self-reliance

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Something for Everyone From Fed Leaves Investors Debating 2019

[I]  Morgan Stanley Says Traders Mispricing Fed at Both Ends of Curve

[I]  Argentina Gets $57 Billion as IMF Doubles Down on Record Bailout

[I]  Morgan Stanley Says Traders Mispricing Fed at Both Ends of Curve

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Raises Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year

[I]  Recap of the Fed’s Decision

[I]  How the September Statement Changed From August

[I]  As Fed Raises Rates, Consumers Have Yet to Feel the Sting

[I]  How China Systematically Pries Technology From U.S. Companies

[I]  New-Home Sales Bounced Back in August

[I]  Big Businesses Push Down Prices, and Perhaps Wages

[I]  An Economic Cold War Looms Between the U.S. and China

[I]  Trade Deal Could Move Ahead Without Canada, U.S. Official Says

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SC upholds Aadhaar’s constitutional validity...

[I]  New Digital Policy to safeguard data privacy and autonomy of individuals

[I]  Sweet spot: Sugar mills get transport subsidy, production aid under Rs. 5,500-crore package

[I]  Kharif foodgrain output to hit record 141.6 mt

[I]  Customer on-boarding costs to shoot up for fintech players

[I]  ADB maintains India growth forecast at 7.3% for FY19

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Aadhaar: 'Legal, but limit use to govt benefits'

[I]  Kharif food-grain output to be record high, show initial government estimates

[I]  Higher duties to boost gold trade but take sheen off polished diamonds

[I]  India proposes free trade agreement with Bangladesh

[I]  World economy on shaky ground; trade war sign of 'deeper malaise': UN report

[I]  CO2 emissions cost India USD 210 billion every year: Study

[I]  FinMin initiates discussions with PSU banks for capital infusion

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt raises import duties on 19 major items to curtail widening CAD

[I]  SC upholds constitutional validity of Aadhaar card, but with caveats

[I]  Impact of import duty hikes: Festive offers by companies to dry up

[I]  After SC verdict, private firms wanting to still use Aadhaar look to govt

[I]  Cabinet approves $100-billion investment goal in e-communication

[I]  RBI monetary policy review: Bank may hike rates despite bond turmoil

[I]  Emerging economies more optimistic about gains from trade

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11080;  USDINR DGCX: 72.7475;  DJIA Mini: 26447;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7472;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 24002;  EUR-USD: 1.1749; Crude Oil (WTI): 72.46;  Gold (Spot): 1198

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

27 Sep 2018