ITS RAINING HEAVILY; ENJOY AMAZING AMUSEMENTS WITHIN WALLS. WISHING A WITTY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 03 Aug 2019

 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to cut rates next week for a fourth time in 2019 as benign inflation gives it room to help an economy that is growing at its slowest in nearly five years. US Employers added jobs at a steady pace in July and unemployment held at a historically low level, providing a solid foundation for the decadelong U.S. expansion at a time of global headwinds. China vowed to fight back against U.S. abrupt decision to slap 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move that ended a month-long trade truce. Thousands of civil servants joined in the anti-government protests in Hong Kong for the first time since they started two months ago, defying a warning from the authorities to remain politically neutral.  

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US-China trade tensions hit global markets

[I]  US pulls out of nuclear arms control pact with Russia

[I]  China vows to retaliate over Trump’s trade tariffs

[I]  Trump tariffs increase pressure on Fed to cut rates

[I]  Nervous UK plc battens down the hatches for no-deal

[I]  Central banks should consider giving people money

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's summer crop planting down 6.6% from last year, likely to pick up

[I]  EU settles on World Bank's Georgieva to lead IMF

[I]  Good money after bad? India's bank rescue plans keep coming

[I]  India seen set for fourth interest rate cut of 2019

[I]  China vows fight against Trump's latest tariffs as stocks sink

[I]  Thousands of Hong Kong civil servants defy government to join protests

[I]  U.S. withdraws from Soviet-era nuclear missile accord with Russia

[I]  U.S. hiring slows; shorter factory workweek a red flag

[I]  U.S. economy is adding plenty of jobs, but not hours for workers

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Pay Up, Oil Traders. Trump’s Steel Tariffs Now Affect You Too

[I]  Fed Rate-Cut Dissenters Cite Strong Employment, Financial Risks

[I]  Trump Officials Still Pushing for a Coal Bailout, Regulator Says

[I]  Big Oil's Big Bet on Natural Gas Has Been a Big Headache

[I]  Never-Ending Trade War Sinks Commodities Into a World of Trouble

[I]  Is the ‘Powell Put’ Enough to Counter Trump’s Trade War?

[I]  China Turns Back to Brazilian Beans After Trade War Escalation

[I]  U.S. Steel Sinks After Doubling Down on Spending Amid Cash Burn

[I]  Oil Market Struggles to Shake the Ghost of Crashes From the Past

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Up in July on Brighter Outlook

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Added Jobs at Steady Pace in July

[I]  Jobs Report Does Little to Clarify Fed Outlook Muddled By Escalated Trade Tensions

[I]  Tariff Fight Knocks Off China as Top U.S. Trading Partner

[I]  U.S. Consumers Remained Positive in July

[I]  China’s Power to Boost Global Economy Is Fading

[I]  Two Fed Officials Say Economy Didn’t Justify Lowering Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Affordable housing gets a ₹10,000-crore booster

[I]  Global cotton prices down 26% on weak demand

[I]  Kharif coverage down 6.6% despite improved rainfall

[I]  Rainfall profile of country to improve in second week of August

[I]  For pulses security, planners need to rethink restrictive policies

[I]  Iran is hot favourite for Indian cotton exporters

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  5 reasons why the economy is slowing down

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $727 million to $429.6 billion

[I]  Anti-dumping duty likely on certain type of steel from Brazil, China, Germany

[I]  India slips to 7th largest economy in 2018: World Bank

[I]  Why even Rs 3.2 lakh crore taxpayers money in 4 years is not enough for unhealthy PSBs

[I]  Wait till next budget? Tweaks in I-T law needed to make conversion from trust to company tax-neutral

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI tightens fit-and-proper criteria for directors on PSB boards

[I]  Reserve Bank bans NBFCs from charging loan foreclosure penalties

[I]  Housing finance companies get Rs 10,000-crore liquidity infusion

[I]  Sebi, government in talks for transfer of surplus funds

[I]  Seven public sector banks fined over violation of RBI's guidelines

[I]  Banks should not charge for deposit of cash at branch, ATMs: RBI

[I]  RBI Governor asks private banks to pass on rate cut benefits faster

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 Aug 2019

FRIDAY FAVOURS THE FEARLESS; SOMETIMES SMILE STOUTLY. WISHING AN APPEASING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Aug 2019

 

India's factory activity accelerated in July as domestic demand and output strengthened, encouraging firms to hire at the fastest rate in five months, a private business survey. IMD forecasts normal rains for August, Sept Gold demand in India up 13% despite volatile prices. Global stocks took another beating while investors piled on to safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The flow of investment money between China and the U.S. continued to fall in the first half of 2019 as trade tensions took their toll. Bank of England cuts growth forecasts as Brexit and global worries mount.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU ministers set to vote on Europe’s IMF candidate

[I]  Brexit uncertainty spurs BoE to cut growth forecasts

[I]  Asian economies gripped by manufacturing woes

[I]  Japan set to remove South Korea from export ‘white list’

[I]  Car industry woes weigh on Germany’s prospects

[I]  Post-consumer spark of joy is perfect for today’s Japan

 

REUTERS

[I]  Japan's cabinet approves removal of South Korea from favored trade list

[I]  BOJ debated further easing if price outlook threatened: June minutes

[I]  With Fed's 'insurance' cut, Powell takes cue from Greenspan

[I]  Global markets: Trump's tariffs jolt global stocks, lift safe-haven assets

[I]  Trump hits China with more tariffs, says Xi moving too slow on trade

[I]  Stronger demand boosts India factory activity in July: PMI

[I]  Bank of England cuts growth forecasts as Brexit and global worries mount

[I]  Mexico's dependence on U.S. demand spells trouble for weak economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Treasury Yields Dive to 2016 Levels as Trade War Escalates

[I]  U.S. Jobs Report to Offer Litmus Test for Fed After Rate Cut

[I]  Markets Confounded by BOE Brushing Aside Risk of No-Deal Brexit

[I]  Bond Bonanza to Help India Battle World's Worst Bad Loan Ratio

[I]  Global Economy Braces for a Fresh Trade Blow

[I]  China Bond Defaults Rebound Further in July

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Conundrum: Can Lower Rates Combat Investment Chill

[I]  Senate Passes Two-Year Spending Deal That Suspends Debt Ceiling

[I]  Trump Threatens New Chinese Tariffs, Rattling Investors Across Markets

[I]  What to Watch For in the July Jobs Report

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Increased Last Week

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Slipped in July

[I]  Fed Pick Shelton Says Other Countries Are ‘Cheating’ by Devaluing Currencies

[I]  U.S.-China Investments Continue to Decline

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Banks free to have separate caps for lending to power, renewables sectors: RBI to Centre

[I]  Life insurance industry likely to see 14-15% growth: CARE

[I]  IMD forecasts normal rains for August, Sept

[I]  Gold demand up 13% despite volatile prices

[I]  Sugar glut forces farmers in Maharashtra to use cane as cattle fodder

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  More pain lies ahead for auto sector

[I]  Carmakers' Asia dream turns into nightmare

[I]  Bank credit up 12%, deposits 10.6%

[I]  India shuns trade war, export share grows

[I]  Count babies if you want to know where EM real rates are headed

[I]  GST mop-up rises to Rs 1.02 lakh crore in July

[I]  Crisil cuts India FY20 growth estimate to 6.9% on below normal monsoon, weaker corporate earnings

[I]  India's current economic problem not as bad as in 1991: Former RBI deputy governor Rakesh Mohan

[I]  Lok Sabha passes amendments to Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Auto sales in July fall for 9th consecutive month due to poor demand

[I]  Planning to buy e-vehicle? EV firms trim prices after GST breather

[I]  Govt e-commerce platform has more than twice the number of Flipkart sellers

[I]  Govt to issue overseas sovereign bonds in tranches: FinMin official

[I]  New green energy corridors witness 50% reduction in project costs

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10947;  USDINR DGCX: 69.4550;  DJIA Mini: 26485;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7427;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20980;  EUR-USD: 1.1075; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.07;  Gold (Spot): 1432

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Aug 2019

WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNING THIS IS! WISHING A STUNNING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Aug 2019

 

Monsoon rains in the coming weeks are likely to make up for a shortfall in the first two months of the season that began in June. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but the head of the U.S. central bank said the move might not be the start of a lengthy campaign to shore up the economy against risks including global weakness. OPEC oil output hit an eight-year low in July as a further voluntary cut by top exporter Saudi Arabia deepened losses caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran and outages elsewhere in the group. The European region’s economy is slowing again as its factories count the cost of increased uncertainty about global trade rules, underpinning worries at the Federal Reserve about the impact of weaker world demand on U.S. growth. Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 16 months amid sputtering economic growth, high unemployment and slow inflation.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed rate cut is a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’, Powell says

[I]  China accounting scandal threatens corporate fundraising

[I]  Eurozone economic growth cools in second quarter

[I]  Germany rejects US request for help in the Gulf

[I]  Beijing hits at Trump after brief trade talks

[I]  China suspends individual tourist permits to Taiwan

 

REUTERS

[I]  Monsoon rains to make up early shortfall: IMD chief

[I]  India receives 42% more rains than average this week: IMD

[I]  Sales slumps in China, India clobber automakers banking on Asia for growth

[I]  China factory activity shrinks again in July, pressure eases slightly: Caixin PM

[I]  China central bank skips OMO as markets wait to see if it will follow Fed

[I]  Fed cuts interest rates, signals it may not need to do more

[I]  OPEC oil output hits lowest since 2011: Reuters survey

[I]  U.S., China to keep talking on trade after little progress in Shanghai

[I]  Bank of England to lean against market rate cut bets as Brexit nears

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Gold Falls as Powell Comments Damp Bets on Aggressive Rate Cuts

[I]  The British Pound Is Starting to Resemble Emerging-Market Currencies

[I]  Powell Smashes Yield Curve Flatter by Sowing Doubts on Rate Cuts

[I]  Brazil's Larger-Than-Expected Rate Cut Is a Sign of More to Come

[I]  PBOC Stays on Hold After Fed in Sign Easing Is Limited for Now

[I]  Powell Suggests Fed Embarking on 1990s-Style Mini Easing Cycle

[I]  Worst Thai Drought in a Decade Adds Pressure for Policy-Rate Cut

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Cuts Rates by a Quarter Point in Precautionary Move

[I]  Slow Progress in Trade Talks Is Partly a Result of China’s New Tactic to Wait

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Added 156,000 Jobs in July

[I]  German Opponents of ECB’s Crisis Strategy Make a Last Stand

[I]  Europe’s Stalling Economy Sounds Alarm for Global Growth

[I]  Trump to Sign Medicare Order as Part of Attack on Democrats’ Health-Care Message

[I]  The President, the Fed, and the Cut

[I]  Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Its Benchmark Interest Rate

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Infrastructure sector grows at slowest pace in four years

[I]  Govt, exporters discuss strategy to increase exports to US, China

[I]  Monsoon revival in July cuts rain deficit to 9%

[I]  Govt, exporters discuss strategy to increase exports to US, China

[I]  Core sector growth slows to a 0.2% crawl in June

[I]  Falling cotton yarn exports worry textile industry

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Fiscal deficit crosses 61% of budgeted target

[I]  Big Tech may have to pay more to do business here

[I]  US yield curve flattens on jitters about Fed 'policy error'

[I]  10-year bond yield drops as FPIs shift from equities to debt

[I]  India's exports need to contribute USD 1 trillion in economy: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Government receipts only 14% of full year target in April-June quarter

[I]  Motor Vehicles Bill 2019: Complete list of fines you will pay for traffic violations

[I]  Union Cabinet approves bill to regulate chit funds industry

[I]  Govt wants minimum laws, maximum governance : Labour Secretary H L Samariya

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt softens stance on time frame for transition to electric vehicles

[I]  India Inc worried over three-year jail provision for violation of CSR norms

[I]  At 42%, Chinese smartphone majors' India market share reaches highest level

[I]  79% CEOs see growth prospects for Indian economy in 2019: KPMG Report

[I]  Office space absorption may touch record 42 million sqft this year: Report

[I]  At $2.73 trn, India's economy pushed to 7th spot; UK, France march ahead

[I]  Core sector growth at 50-month low in June; 4 out of 8 sectors contract

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11071;  USDINR DGCX: 69.3725;  DJIA Mini: 26750;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7524;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21470;  EUR-USD: 1.1049; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.85;  Gold (Spot): 1410

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
01 Aug 2019