FEEL THE GENTLE COMPASSIONATE LOVE OF THE LOVED ONE; WITH SMILE. WISHING A CARING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Jan 2020

 

Women overtook men to hold the majority of U.S. jobs for the first time in a decade, while employers added positions for a record 10th straight year, pointing to a growing economy heading into 2020. The December employment report is likely to keep the Fed comfortable with its make-no-moves posture as officials look for evidence that last year’s slowdown in manufacturing, investment and trade hasn’t spilled into the broader consumer-driven economy. The Trump administration is working on a plan to tighten eligibility requirements for disability benefits, especially for older Americans. US wage growth slips below 3% for first time since 2018 whereas Canadian jobs growth bounces back in December. Trump administration imposes new sanctions on Iran although US officials say measures will reduce Tehran’s ability to ‘do bad things’. Middle East remains on edge amid fears of long-term fallout while Iran risk may linger in financial markets for a while longer, however Niti Aayog vice chairman says that Govt measures will help India secure sustainable energy future. Industrial production grows 1.8 per cent in November 2019 whilst Indian government seeks RBI dividend boost as revenue drops. As per the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), car sales in India fell by a record 19% last year as a slowing economy made consumers reluctant to spend on big-ticket items and demand is likely to be flat this year. The country’s foreign exchange reserves touched a record high of $461.157 billion.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump administration imposes new sanctions on Iran

[I]  US wage growth slips below 3% for first time since 2018

[I]  Economy added just 145,000 jobs in December, in sharp drop from previous month

[I]  Wildfire crisis closes several embassies in Australia

[I]  Canberra on high alert after warning that smoke from bushfires could envelop it in coming days

[I]  Beijing’s 2020 targets provide insight into its priorities, but not all have been met

[I]  Middle East remains on edge amid fears of long-term fallout

[I]  Canadian jobs growth bounces back in December

 

REUTERS

[I]  Exclusive: Indian government to seek RBI dividend boost as revenue drops

[I]  U.N. renews Syria cross-border aid operation but halves crossings, length of time

[I]  India's slowing economy led to record drop in car sales in 2019 - industry body

[I]  Canada, under pressure at home over plane crash, warns Iran world is watching

[I]  U.S. employment in the 2010s in five charts

[I]  U.S. job growth cools in December, but labor market tight

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Charting the World Economy: The Scars of Protectionism

[I]  Iran Risk May Linger in Financial Markets for a While Longer

[I]  China Subsidies Are Haunting a U.S. Steel Industry That’s Losing Jobs

[I]  Powell Was Early Spotting Labor-Market Slack, Transcript Shows

[I]  Canada Oil Sands Threatened With Price Drop Below Key Level

[I]  Best of U.S. Labor Market May Be Over With Hiring, Wages Cooling

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  As Jobs Cap Decade of Gains, Women Are Workforce Majority

[I]  Women Overtake Men as Majority of U.S. Workforce

[I]  Jobs Report Offers Little Reason for Fed to Change Its View

[I]  Fed’s Powell Counseled Caution on Raising Rates in 2014 Meetings

[I]  Trump Administration Weighs Tighter Requirements for Disability Payments

[I]  Federal Reserve Sent Lower Remittances to U.S. Treasury in 2019

[I]  Newsletter Special Edition: Ten Straight Years of Job Growth

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Forex reserves touch record $461.16 billion

[I]  Industrial production grows 1.8 per cent in November 2019

[I]  Total corporate funding in solar sector reaches $11.7 billion in 2019: Report

[I]  Automobile sales hit a low in December 

[I]  High import duty GST taking sheen off jewellery business, leading to job losses: Official

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rs 5.9L cr debt is looming over Indian firms

[I]  Government to seek RBI dividend boost as revenue drops

[I]  India to propose easing foreign investment rules further

[I]  PM Modi keen to move beyond gradual moves in Union Budget

[I]  View: India is the most exposed major economy to turmoil in West Asia

[I]  Govt measures to help India secure sustainable energy future: Niti Aayog vice chairman

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Industrial output breaks 3-month downward streak, expands by 1.8% in Nov

[I]  Unfolding in India's smaller cities is the next wave of promising startups

[I]  RBI releases national strategy for financial inclusion for 5-year period

[I]  Govt may seek another interim dividend from RBI as revenue drops: Report

[I]  Passenger vehicle sales dip 1.2% in December; three-wheeler sales up 22%

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
11 Jan 2020

WE LOVE TO BE LOVED; WE ALL ARE LOVED; THIS FRIDAY TOO. WISHING A REFRESHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Jan 2020

 

The UK Lawmakers approved legislation allowing Britain to leave the European Union on Jan. 31 with an exit deal, ending more than three years of tumult over the terms of the unprecedented divorce. Whereas Deloitte finds record UK business optimism post-election rebound. China’s chief trade negotiator will travel to Washington early next week to sign a phase-one trade deal with the U.S. FED officials said low interest rates are likely to be a persistent issue for some time to come, which will create challenges for how central banks operate. Banks face the prospect of having to navigate different sets of rules for hundreds of billions of dollars in annual lending to lower-income borrowers if top U.S. regulators can’t settle a fight over competing plans for the industry; however Trump sees sharp rise in support for economic policies. Eurozone nations curb borrowing despite ultra-low rates while German exports drop adds to country’s gloomy prospects. Japan household spending falls 2.0% year-on-year in November whereas Debt ‘crisis’ in poor countries driving public spending cuts. A Record $83 Billion Bond Bill Is Looming Over Indian Companies while Indi Ratings opines India needs 6.3% labour productivity growth to attain 8% hike in GDP. The government is set to slash the time taken for starting a new business from 18 days to five days and RBI approves Aadhaar-based video authentication as alternative to e-KYC. PM, in Pre-Budget meet, says that fundamentals are strong, economy will rebound.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump sees sharp rise in support for economic policies

[I]  Eurozone nations curb borrowing despite ultra-low rates

[I]  Nato set for US clash over Middle East troop demand

[I]  Investors still snapping up short-term loans from Fed

[I]  German exports drop adds to country’s gloomy prospects

[I]  France hit by new mass protest over pensions

[I]  Debt ‘crisis’ in poor countries driving public spending cuts 

[I]  Central banks need to refresh their armouries

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S., Iran ease fear of conflict but threats keep tension high

[I]  Trump says he may wait to finish Phase 2 China trade deal until after November

[I]  Trump floats expanding NATO to add Middle East

[I]  UK business optimism sees record post-election rebound: Deloitte

[I]  Japan household spending falls 2.0% year-on-year in November

[I]  UK lawmakers back EU exit deal, turning page on Brexit crisis

[I]  Fed officials - Trade risks easing may mean bluer sky for 2020 

[I]  Hopes for spike in U.S. farm exports to China dim ahead of trade deal signing 

[I]  Factbox: A lot of soy, a little rice- China's historical U.S. agricultural purchases

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Insurer Facing $2 Billion Financial Hole Sparks Call for Rescue

[I]  Bank of Japan Appears Reluctant to Embrace Green Bonds Despite Climate Fears

[I]  ‘Crucial’ Jobs Data to Reveal Extent of Canada’s Economic Slump

[I]  Suspected Fraud in $200 Billion Korean Market Spurs Regulators

[I]  China’s Small-Cap Rally Is Sending a Bullish Signal on Economy

[I]  A Record $83 Billion Bond Bill Is Looming Over Indian Companies

[I]  Companies Are Rushing to Borrow Cheaply While They Still Can

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  China to Send Chief Trade Negotiator to U.S. to Sign Phase-One Deal

[I]  Chinese Inflation at Eight-Year High Poses a Policy Dilemma

[I]  Fed's Williams: Low Interest Rates Likely to Persist

[I]  Fed’s Bullard, Kashkari Favor Holding Interest Rates Steady

[I]  Fed’s Clarida: U.S. Economy Begins 2020 ‘In a Good Place’

[I]  Reversal by Trump Revives U.S. Export-Import Bank

[I]  Newsletter: U.S. Population Growth Slowest in a Century

[I]  Banks Caught in Regulators’ Squabble Over Low-Income Loan Rules

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  High spenders can file income tax returns for AY 21 in Sahaj

[I]  Person jointly owning a single house property can file ITR-1, ITR-4

[I]  Crude spike: Govt may need to set aside more for LPG, kerosene subsidy

[I]  Sugar steadies in listless market

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  You may soon be able to make cash deposits at any ATM

[I]  Safe-haven currencies retreat as US, Iran seen defusing crisis

[I]  Ministry wants update on grain procurement

[I]  India needs 6.3% labour productivity growth to attain 8% hike in GDP: India Ratings

[I]  India adds checks to rice exports to European Union

[I]  Government to slash time taken to start new business to 5 days

[I]  India asset sales to fall short of target by nearly 50%

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI approves Aadhaar-based video authentication as alternative to e-KYC

[I]  Pre-Budget meet: Fundamentals are strong, economy will rebound, says PM

[I]  India's domestic air passenger traffic hits 11.3% growth in November: IATA

[I]  India lost over $1.3 billion to internet shutdowns last year, says study

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12262;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3175;  DJIA Mini: 28994;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7568;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23825;  EUR-USD: 1.1106; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.41;  Gold (Spot): 1548

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
10 Jan 2020

SMILE; YOU KNOW, SOMEONE SMILES WITH YOUR SMILE. WISHING A JUBILANT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 Jan 2020

 

U.S., Iran both appear to signal desire to avoid further conflict and they back from the brink of war at least for now although global airlines reroute flights amid tensions. Banks face the prospect of having to navigate different sets of rules for hundreds of billions of dollars in annual lending to lower-income borrowers if top U.S. regulators can’t settle a fight over competing plans for the industry. Fed economist sees long-term rates near zero in mild downturn, while U.S. consumer borrowing cools on drop in credit-card balances. The nonfarm private sector in the U.S. added 202,000 jobs in December, topping economists’ expectations, with most of the growth at medium- and small-sized businesses. A debate is heating up over whether businesses should pay up when they replace human workers with machines. Argentina central bank seeks to cut rates and slow inflation. World Bank trims 2020 growth forecast amid slow recovery for trade, investment and pegs India’s growth at 5%. India’s economy hasn’t been this bad in 42 years when measured on nominal GDP with the current fiscal year’s 7.5% growth the worst since 1978 - substantially lower than the 12% expansion the government had penciled in when projecting taxes. A cut in commodity transaction tax (CTT), dividend distribution tax (DDT) and rationalisation of difference between short-term capital gains tax (STCG) and long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) are likely to be part of Govt. budget. Economists prefer capex route to alleviate demand amid economic slowdown. India plans to amend proposed rules for policing digital content so the toughest measures apply only to big social media firms.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump backs away from military action against Iran 

[I]  Iran and US step back from the brink of war — for now

[I]  India cuts growth forecast to slowest pace in 11 years

[I]  Johnson sets up clash over fishing in talks with EU

[I]  World Bank gloomy in spite of easing US-China tensions

[I]  South Korea announces $51bn infrastructure spend

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S., Iran both appear to signal desire to avoid further conflict

[I]  China December new yuan loans seen lower but hitting record in 2019: Reuters poll

[I]  Slow and uneven, Haiti rebuilds 10 years after devastating quake

[I]  India to tweak proposed content regulations to ease burden on some - sources

[I]  UK shoppers rein in spending to cap grim 2019 for retailers - BRC

[I]  World Bank trims 2020 growth forecast amid slow recovery for trade, investment

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Economist Sees Long-Term Rates Near Zero in Mild Downturn

[I]  Red Flags Emerge With Record-High Stocks Brushing Aside Political Turmoil

[I]  China’s Inflation Steady in December With Oil Spike Ahead

[I]  Handbags at Dawn, Australia Fires-GDP, Fed Back to Zero: Eco Day

[I]  Global Growth Poised for Modest Pickup This Year in Face of Stubborn Risks

[I]  Dealmaking Is Off to Slowest Start Globally Since 2015

[I]  U.S. Consumer Borrowing Cools on Drop in Credit-Card Balances

[I]  Argentina Central Bank Seeks to Cut Rates and Slow Inflation

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Added 202,000 Jobs in December

[I]  Banks Caught in Regulators’ Squabble Over Low-Income Loan Rules

[I]  In Tight Job Market, Census Bureau Stresses Flexible Hours

[I]  Bloomberg Puts Geographic Inequality on the 2020 Agenda

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Lowest in Three Years as Imports From China Slide

[I]  Should Robots Pay Taxes?

[I]  Big Banks Seek Less Liquidity From Fed Amid Stable Money-Market Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Cut in tax on commodity deals, DDT likely in Budget

[I]  Departmental audit under GST begins; first set of notices sent to assessees

[I]  Cabinet removes end use restrictions for participating in coal mine auctions

[I]  Skies over Tamil Nadu clear up, may allow morning chill to set in

[I]  Central Government imposes restrictions on import of refined palm oil

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Worst economy in 42 yrs needs honest look

[I]  Govt to create temporary storage for 10 mt grain

[I]  India, US looking at an exclusive trade partnership: Shringla

[I]  World Bank pegs India’s growth for FY20 at 5%

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  CMD role split: In relief for India Inc, Sebi may extend March 31 deadline

[I]  Corporate earnings may worsen in Q3, but profits could get tax-cut boost

[I]  Amid revenue shortage, govt begins audit of GST returns for FY 2017-18

[I]  Govt looking for more revenue from highways, NITI suggests measures

[I]  Steep decline in recovery major challenge for sugar mills this season

[I]  Relief package soon for Maharashtra farmers with over Rs 2 lakh loan: Guv

[I]  Economists prefer capex route to alleviate demand amid economic slowdown

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12174;  USDINR DGCX: 71.5775;  DJIA Mini: 28792;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7534;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23645;  EUR-USD: 1.1117; Crude Oil (WTI): 60.17;  Gold (Spot): 1560

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
09 Jan 2020

THE ‘SMILE WITH HAPPINESS’ IS THE GREATEST CONTENTMENT OF EVERY LIVING BEING. WISHING A DELIGHTED DAY AHEAD. 
 

Macro Economic News 08 Jan 2020

 

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in November for the third straight month, dropping to its lowest level in three years as the rate of imports dropped and exports picked up. A Senate committee approved a rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement despite criticism from some lawmakers that it lacks sufficient protections for U.S. companies. Mark Carney, Governor of BOE, warns that Central banks are low on ways to fight recession and they might struggle to fight deep downturn while many economists fear of US approaching limit of monetary policy. Eurozone inflation rises up whereas Johnson to tell EU chief of no extension to trade deal talks while France and the US seek to resolve digital tax dispute. As per Indian Govt data, GDP growth is seen slipping to 11-yr low of 5 per cent this fiscal with the estimated growth of real GVA in 2019-20 is 4.9 per cent as against 6.6 per cent in 2018-19 although India’s per-capita income rises 6.8 per cent to 11,254 a month in FY20. With record industrial slump restrict GDP growth, Govt is taking steps to simplify taxation and curb harassment of honest taxpayers. RBI allows 24x7 forex mkt ops via select banks while banks staring at 20% more provisioning for Rs 2.2-trillion debt.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Central banks low on ways to fight recession, warns Carney

[I]  Carmakers move from cars to building cities at CES

[I]  France and US seek to resolve digital tax dispute

[I]  China tourism growth lifts fortunes of Russia’s airports

[I]  Ireland braces for public spending dispute in election campaign

[I]  Eurozone inflation hots up on pre-Christmas consumer spending

[I]  Economists fear US is approaching limit of monetary policy

 

REUTERS

[I]  India predicts slower 5% growth, likely prompting budget stimulus

[I]  Oil surges after Iran attacks U.S. forces in Iraq, WTI at around $65

[I]  U.S. FAA says 'closely monitoring' aviation safety in Middle East after missile attack

[I]  Europeans should control their B-to-B data, says EU commissioner

[I]  U.S. wine industry fears 'Armageddon of costs' from tariffs on French imports

[I]  Johnson to tell EU chief - no extension to trade deal talks

[I]  Central banks might struggle to fight deep downturn - Carney

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Global Market Reaction to Iran Rocket Attack in Four Charts

[I]  U.K. Urged to Get Tougher on Firms Not Paying Minimum Wage

[I]  Brazil’s Record-Setting Stocks Are Testing Foreigners’ Appetite

[I]  Bond ETFs Come of Age After $150 Billion Year Heralds New Order

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Lowest in Three Years as Imports From China Slide

[I]  Senate Panel Clears North American Trade Pact

[I]  IRS Personal Income-Tax Audits Drop to Lowest Level in Decades

[I]  A Counterintuitive Fix for Robot-Driven Unemployment

[I]  Economists Question Targeted Tax Breaks

[I]  Demand For Fed Liquidity Rises, New York Fed Injects Nearly $100 Billion

[I]  Newsletter: Gold, Oil, Uncertainty and Iran

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GDP growth seen slipping to 11-yr low of 5 per cent this fiscal: Government data

[I]  India’s per-capita income rises 6.8 per cent to 11,254 a month in FY20

[I]  India-Iran trade dips 79.4 per cent in April-Nov; may fall further

[I]  Budget 2020 wishlist: Real estate sector for quick implementation of AIF regime to rescue stressed residential projects

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt firms up a nine-point plan to plug GST revenue leaks

[I]  Safe-haven currencies in demand

[I]  RBI allows 24x7 forex mkt ops via select banks

[I]  Risks loom for state banks binging on sovereign bonds

[I]  India asks domestic refiners to avoid buying Malaysian palm oil: Sources

[I]  GDP growth rate for 2019-20 estimated at 5% against 6.8% in FY19

[I]  India plans to cut spending to curb deficit; may hurt growth

[I]  Govt taking steps to simplify taxation; curb harassment of honest taxpayers: FM

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  In a first, RBI plans to put weak private lenders under the hammer

[I]  Despite relaxation in norms, 25 stressed power assets yet to be resolved

[I]  Record industrial slump to restrict GDP growth to 5% this year

[I]  Banks staring at 20% more provisioning for Rs 2.2-trillion debt

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11961;  USDINR DGCX: 72.0350;  DJIA Mini: 28339;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7560;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23114;  EUR-USD: 1.1153; Crude Oil (WTI): 64.10;  Gold (Spot): 1586

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
08 Jan 2020