THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY TO ENJOY, ENJOY IT; ITS JUST A LIFE. WISHING A PLEASING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 23 Nov 2019

 

$5-trillion GDP needs 12.4% nominal growth a year, says NITI Aayog. India’s appliances and consumer electronics market size is expected to nearly double to ₹1.48 lakh crore. Business activity in the U.S. is offering signs of a pickup in late 2019, contrasting with more sluggish economic performances in some of the world’s other largest economies. President Trump called antigovernment protests in Hong Kong a “complicating factor” in his bid for a trade deal with China and didn’t say whether he would sign a bill passed by Congress supporting the protesters. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called for greater public investment in the 19-nation eurozone to help rebalance the bloc’s economy away from exports. Euro-Area economy moves closer to stagnation as orders fall, business activity gloomy in November, with scant hope for improvement. South Africa outlook cut to negative by S&P amid fiscal woes.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Lagarde urges governments to boost public investment

[I]  Eurozone services activity slides as manufacturing woes bite

[I]  China property: lost in space 

[I]  Hong Kong tests whether finance needs the rule of law

[I]  Abenomics provides a lesson for the rich world

 

REUTERS

[I]  Trump, Xi send positive signals on initial deal to defuse U.S.-China trade war

[I]  Indian gold sellers opt for discounts; China, Hong Kong demand weak

[I]  Murray a doubt for Britain's clash with Spain

[I]  Mexico central bank chief says minimum wage should rise, at measured pace

[I]  Euro zone needs to create its own economic growth at home: ECB's Lagarde

[I]  Euro zone business activity gloomy in November, scant hope for improvement

[I]  UK's Labour vows action on 'tax and wage cheat' multinationals

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump ‘Stands’ With City, But Wants Trade Deal: Hong Kong Update

[I]  Trump, Xi Talk Past Each Other on Need for Win-Win Trade Deal

[I]  Lagarde Calls for Government Help in First Major ECB Speech

[I]  Euro-Area Economy Moves Closer to Stagnation as Orders Fall

[I]  As Everyone Else Wins, Lowest-Rated Junk Bonds Get Hammered

[I]  South Africa Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P Amid Fiscal Woes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Business Activity Shows Signs of Pickup Against Global Slowdown

[I]  Trump Calls Hong Kong Protests ‘Complicating Factor’ in Trade Talks

[I]  Lagarde Calls for More Government Spending in First Public Speech as ECB Leader

[I]  Fed Adds $80.6 Billion to Financial System in Latest Repo Transactions

[I]  Andrew Yang Explains His Universal Basic Income Plan

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October

[I]  Newsletter: Aspiring Home Buyers Are Getting Locked Out of the Market

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  What alternative financing models can Indian roads sector look for?

[I]  Developer of land is not a seller, liable to pay GST, rules AAR

[I]  There is no plan for large scale privatisation of railway routes: Railway Minister Piyush Goyal

[I]  Landless labourers not eligible for Central income support: Parshottam Rupala

[I]  New EB-5 visa rules come into effect

[I]  Appliance and consumer electronics market to grow at 11.7%

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Indian IT employees stare at a mid-life crisis

[I]  Indian students' American dream may soon turn sour

[I]  Forex reserve rises by $441 million to lifetime high of $448.2 billion

[I]  Overseas banks show appetite for junk bonds

[I]  The seven reforms that made MGNREGS more useful

[I]  Unions to protest against industrial relations code

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  $5-trillion GDP needs 12.4% nominal growth a year, says NITI Aayog

[I]  NPA norms may be tougher than Basel's: RBI deputy governor N S Vishwanathan

[I]  After a year of discounts, consumer durables set for price rise from 2020

[I]  Finance commission chief Singh blasts frequent tinkering with GST rates

[I]  Indian IT firms open up to cloud, seek to ramp up spending next year

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
23 Nov 2019

FAITH IS THE SUBSTANTIATING OF THINGS HOPED FOR; THIS FRIDAY TOO. WISHING A PROMISING FRIDAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Nov 2019

Chinese commerce ministry said that China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open. China’s chief trade negotiator has invited his American counterparts for a new round of talks, according to people briefed on the matter, as both sides are struggling to strike a limited deal to help de-escalate tensions while Trump blames China for lagging talks. The OECD said that the economy is at risk of settling into a low-growth rut without urgent action to roll back recently erected obstacles to trade and greater investment in tackling climate change. The FED added $103.65 billion in temporary liquidity to the financial system on Thursday. China revises 2018 GDP up 2.1%. Corporate India's M&A deal value slips 45% to $1.5 bn in October while as per Govt, Indian PSU banks disbursed around Rs 2.5 trillion in loans during the same period; while India Lenders Brace for Possible $5 Billion Shadow Bank Writeoff. Over 200 global economists seek junked NSO report details from govt and Govt finalising IT rules for social media to trace original source of info.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Netanyahu charges threaten to deepen Israel political crisis

[I]  Italy’s blighted steel town creates government crisis

[I]  China’s skyscraper boom comes down to earth

[I]  Draghi urged unity on inflation aims, ECB minutes show

[I]  OECD urges governments to take ‘urgent’ stimulus action

[I]  Labour’s promised transformation is an assault on business

[I]  CLOs may pose less risk than CDOs but the case for scrutiny still stands

 

REUTERS

[I]  China revises 2018 GDP up 2.1%, says will not significantly impact 2019 growth calculation

[I]  Japan econmin says exports, production continue to show weakness

[I]  Japan's consumer inflation stagnant despite tax hike boost

[I]  Australia housing market revival to continue into 2020: Reuters poll

[I]  Dollar keeps safe-haven bid amid trade 'headline fatigue'

[I]  Japan November factory activity shrinks for seventh month, increases economic strains: flash PMI

[I]  China says it will strive to reach 'phase one' trade deal with U.S.

[I]  Japan's ruling bloc calls for $92 billion fiscal package to support growth

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China’s Top Negotiator ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ About Reaching Trade Deal

[I]  No QE: Goldman Weighs In on Australia’s Monetary Policy Debate

[I]  Bank of America’s Moynihan Says U.S. Doesn’t Need Negative Rates

[I]  Stuck in Global Rut, Inequality Capital, China Optimism: Eco Day

[I]  Global Bond Market Looks to Modi for Greater Access to India

[I]  India Lenders Brace for Possible $5 Billion Shadow Bank Writeoff

[I]  What Is Sustainable Finance? That's a $4 Trillion Question for Investors

[I]  U.S. States Boost Spending at Fastest Pace Since Recession

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  China Invited U.S. Trade Negotiators for Direct Talks

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October

[I]  Threat of Auto Import Tariffs Remains Despite Lapsed Deadline

[I]  Democratic Senators Want the Fed to Better Prepare Banks for Climate Change

[I]  Powell Says Fed Has No Plans to Create Digital Currency

[I]  Global Economy to Stagnate if Trade War Persists, OECD Warns

[I]  Fed Adds $103.65 Billion to Financial System

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  With ₹40,000 cr due, States to press for urgent GST Council meeting

[I]  Steel imports: Japan flags concern over dumping probe by India at WTO

[I]  Top USTR team in India to finalise mini-trade package

[I]  Audit failure: Punish the guilty, do not debar firms, suggests company law panel

[I]  Your power bill may soon turn lighter

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Economy to stay at low ebb in Q2, says ICRA

[I]  China gives startups what money can’t buy

[I]  OECD trims global 2020 growth forecast

[I]  How India hires and fires is about to change

[I]  Poor tax mop-up has states going slow on capex in H1: Report

[I]  India Inc's M&A deal value slips 45 pc to USD 1.5 bn in October: Report

[I]  Panel working on single fund for all skill related schemes: Pandey

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Telcos' AGR dues to outweigh two-year breather for spectrum payment

[I]  RBI's oversight cadre move creates HR trouble, officers threaten agitation

[I]  Corporate India's M&A deal value slips 45% to $1.5 bn in Oct: Report

[I]  PSU banks disbursed around Rs 2.5 trillion in loans during October: Govt

[I]  Over 200 global economists seek junked NSO report details from govt

[I]  Govt finalising IT rules for social media to trace original source of info

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11970;  USDINR DGCX: 71.7875;  DJIA Mini: 27774;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7252;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23150;  EUR-USD: 1.1063; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.18;  Gold (Spot): 1465

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
22 Nov 2019

BLESSED ARE THE PURE HEARTS - CHILDLIKE CANDID. WISHING AN INNOCENT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 21 Nov 2019

 

Forget the QR code, facial recognition could be the next big thing for payments in China. Asian shares slide as Sino-U.S. spat on Hong Kong clouds trade deal outlook following global shares sliding on Thursday as a fresh row between Washington and Beijing over U.S. bills on Hong Kong. Trade talks between the U.S. and China are in danger of hitting an impasse, threatening to derail the Trump administration’s plan for a limited pact this year as both sides stand firm on key issues including tariffs and agricultural purchases. China lowered its lending benchmark rate again to reduce company funding costs and shore up an economy hurt by slowing demand and U.S. trade tariffs. Federal Reserve officials worried that weakness in manufacturing, trade and business investment could threaten the economic expansion by triggering cutbacks in hiring and consumer spending while Fed governor Lael Brainard said she doesn’t think the central bank is doing enough to counter growing financial imbalances in an environment of low interest rates and heightened economic uncertainty. Bank Indonesia is set to hit pause after four cuts. India is heading for an economic growth of below 5% while cabinet approves code to allow fixed-term employment. PE/VC firms invested over $2 bn in Indian NBFCs, despite IL&FS crisis of 2018.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump directed Ukraine pressure campaign, EU envoy says

[I]  BoJ’s stock-buying programme starts to sputter

[I]  France and Italy warned by Brussels over high debt levels

[I]  Berlin urges Nato rethink after Macron criticism

[I]  Self-driving car groups face stricter safety oversight

[I]  Impact investing about more than saving world

[I]  Green QE would provide a big economic stimulus

 

REUTERS

[I]  India tightens rules on loan default disclosure for public firms

[I]  India grants telcos relief by deferring spectrum payments

[I]  U.S. House passes Hong Kong rights bills, Trump expected to sign

[I]  Singapore upgrades third-quarter GDP, dodges recession

[I]  Trump says U.S. is still talking to China on trade 

[I]  Argentina's political uncertainty and debt crisis torpedo green energy push

[I]  China trims new benchmark lending rate again to shore up sputtering economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  OPEC’s Flaring Political Crises Add New Risk for Oil Supplies

[I]  World’s Largest Pension Fund Keeps Analysts in Dark on Portfolio

[I]  Festival of Lights Fails to Revive India’s Sullen Animal Spirits

[I]  Vietnam Takes ‘Drastic Steps’ to Stop Fraudulent Exports to U.S.

[I]  IMF Says Mexico Credit Line May Be Cut From Current $74 Billion

[I]  Bank Indonesia Set to Hit Pause After Four Cuts: Decision Guide

[I]  Lane Says ECB Will Decide to Launch Policy Review Fairly Soon

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Deal Inches Ahead, Shadowed by Failure Risk

[I]  U.S. Agricultural Trade Surplus Shrinks to Smallest Since 2006

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Cut Rates Last Month Amid Worries on Trade, Growth

[I]  Fed Officials Weighed Money-Market Control Strategies at October Meeting

[I]  What Fewer Billionaires Could Mean for the Rest of Us

[I]  Which College Graduates Make the Most?

[I]  Stalled U.S.-China Trade Talks Raise Threat of Another Impasse

[I]  Fed’s Brainard Urges More Action Against Financial Risks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Centre clears strategic divestment in five PSUs

[I]  Cabinet clears bill to replace ordinance on tax reduction

[I]  Govt mulls providing forex loan at cheaper rate to exporters: Goyal

[I]  No proposal to link social media accounts of individuals to Aadhaar, says Ravi Shankar Prasad

[I]  In Maharashtra, floods make for bitter sugarcane harvest in the current season

[I]  Centre plans sops to lure foreign companies

[I]  States worried over delay in GST compensation

[I]  Telecom, aviation, auto sectors report highest losses in Q2

[I]  India, Europe 29 nations to cooperate in AI, green energy

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why govt and NSSO should not hide data

[I]  Independent directors rush for the exit door

[I]  All hopes dim, India heads for new GDP low

[I]  The $15 billion reason why Asia bond defaults could rise

[I]  India is heading for an economic growth of below 5%

[I]  Highway projects worth Rs 15 lakh cr ready to be offered in next 5 yrs: VK Singh

[I]  Cabinet approves code to allow fixed-term employment

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Sebi makes it mandatory for listed firms to disclose each loan default

[I]  Breather for telcos: 2-year moratorium on payment of spectrum dues

[I]  Govt clears Code on Industrial Relations Bill; retrenchment norms not eased

[I]  Residential property sales will take a year to improve, say top realtors

[I]  PE/VC firms invested over $2 bn in NBFCs, despite IL&FS crisis of 2018

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11976;  USDINR DGCX: 71.8225;  DJIA Mini: 27677;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7211;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22770;  EUR-USD: 1.1076; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.11;  Gold (Spot): 1475

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
21 Nov 2019

HAPPINESS IS CELEBRATING CONTRIBUTION. WISHING A PLEASING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 20 Nov 2019

 

FED said the central bank isn’t committed to any particular policy path in the months ahead, even though it is comfortable right now with keeping rates steady after cutting them three times this year while it added $102.44 billion in temporary liquidity to the financial system. China cut its new benchmark lending rate, as widely expected, moving to drive down funding costs and shore up an economy hurt by slowing demand and trade tariffs. Japan's exports tumbled at their quickest pace in three years, threatening to tip the trade-reliant economy into recession as weakening demand from United States and China darkened the outlook. Finance Commission of India is likely to reject $12 billion package to help utilities cut pollution whereas India's state-run banks report fraud of more than $13 billion in 6 months. RBI unions want govt to hike deposit insurance cover to Rs 10 lakh. Care finds that Employment growth slowed down in last two years hitting core companies. Now it is time to raise growth, reduce poverty and having universal supplementary income to fight poverty.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China ramps up coal power in face of emissions efforts

[I]  Global digital tax would flop, French council warns

[I]  US talks with South Korea break down over defence costs

[I]  Indian telecoms groups signal end of price war

[I]  German small savers hit with negative rates

[I]  Brussels’ Brexit inflexibility damages its interests

 

REUTERS

[I]  Finance Commission likely to reject $12 billion package to help utilities cut pollution

[I]  India's state-run banks report fraud of more than $13 billion in 6 months

[I]  China cuts new benchmark lending rate to lower costs, shore up economy

[I]  China to revise 2018, historical GDP figures based on census results: statistics bureau

[I]  In testy leadership debate, UK PM Johnson promises quick Brexit

[I]  Japan's exports post worst fall in three years as shipments to U.S., China drop

[I]  What trade war? Chinese companies wow with third quarter report card

[I]  U.S. housing starts rebound; permits highest in over 12 years

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Emerging Markets Have Monetary Firepower to Drive World Economy

[I]  Optimistic Strategists Switch to Riskier Stocks in Asia

[I]  Defaults in China’s Private Sector Mount as Tunghsu Joins List

[I]  Fed Minutes Seen Reinforcing Message of Rates on Prolonged Hold

[I]  World-Beating Pakistan Stocks Have Juice as Funds to Join Rally

[I]  ‘Giant Risk Event,’ Fed’s Williams Worries, Inside PBOC: Eco Day

[I]  The $15 Billion Reason Why Asia Bond Defaults Could Rise

[I]  Inside the PBOC’s Struggle to Balance China’s Growth and Debt

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  New York Fed’s Williams Stresses Flexible Approach to Setting Interest Rates

[I]  Trump Accuses Pelosi of Stalling Trade Deal Amid Impeachment Probe

[I]  House Passes Short-Term Spending Measure

[I]  Retail Results Send Mixed Signals on Consumer Spending

[I]  Fed Adds $102.44 Billion to Financial System

[I]  Bank of Canada Warns Global Stress Could Affect Domestic Economy

[I]  Trade Flows Set to Stay Weak, Says WTO

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ₹2,000 note is the preferred mode for unaccounted cash, says govt data

[I]  India, South Africa adopt tough stand on e-commerce moratorium

[I]  India vulnerable to oil price, capital flows shocks: YV Reddy

[I]  Employment growth slowed down in last two years: Care

[I]  For businesswomen, the road ahead is still long

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Corporate CSR funds not to go into govt projects

[I]  The core of India's unemployment problem

[I]  Public sector lenders gear up to renew focus on tea sector

[I]  India may extend onion export ban to February to cap domestic prices

[I]  Govt eases input tax refunds for exporters

[I]  No intention to revise fiscal deficit target: Govt

[I]  Government plans to tweak highway auction norms

[I]  Personal guarantor insolvency under IBC from December 1

[I]  Jobs growth slows in past 2 years, core companies hit hard

[I]  RBI unions want govt to hike deposit insurance cover to Rs 10 lakh

[I]  Raise Growth, Reduce Poverty: Time now to think of universal supplementary income to fight poverty

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  12 hours to 12 minutes: Customs clearance to take the swift route

[I]  PSBs have reported Rs 95,700-crore frauds in first 6 months of FY20: FM

[I]  Finance, IT lead in job creation, capital-intensive sectors in cuts: CARE

[I]  Only 51 days of work per household given under MNREGS in 2018-19

[I]  Trade disputes' fate hangs in balance with top WTO body about to lapse

[I]  Cabinet panel to soon take up proposal to pare majority govt stake in PSUs

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11955;  USDINR DGCX: 71.8300;  DJIA Mini: 27844;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7301;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23100;  EUR-USD: 1.1074; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.32;  Gold (Spot): 1474

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
20 Nov 2019