GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE TOO, WHO WAIT................ TILL WEEKEND. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 12 Jan 2019

Japan encouraged the elderly and women to work and broke a longstanding taboo against immigration, offering lessons for other advanced economies facing similar problems. The country is now enjoying its second-longest economic expansion since World War II.

Tame inflation, low gas prices and rising wages are putting more dollars in the pockets of American workers, a positive sign for consumer spending headed into 2019. The partial government shutdown could cause the longest stretch of continuous job growth recorded in the U.S. to come to an end this month. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank would be patient in raising interest rates this year after global growth worries gripped financial markets in recent weeks.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US private equity deals hit post-2007 high

[I]  EU steps up merger scrutiny amid split over China

[I]  Car industry swerves to avoid hazards ahead

[I]  UK supply-chain groups focus on growth opportunities

[I]  US earnings/corporate tax: sweet but short Premium

[I]  Treasury to review ‘unfair’ tax avoidance measures

[I]  Rush to remortgage ahead of Brexit day

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's industrial output growth nosedives in November

[I]  U.S. to seek comprehensive agriculture access in EU trade talks

[I]  Monster snowstorm to blanket more than half of United States

[I]  Corporate investors pile into electric vehicle startups

[I]  U.S. government shutdown may depress January job growth

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Bears Get Out of the Way as Crude's Rebound Takes Hold

[I]  Tech Stocks Have Rebounded in 2019, But the Bulls Haven't Returned

[I]  Bitcoin Whales Resurfacing May Mean Rough Seas Are Ahead for Traders

[I]  U.S. Regulators Urge Lenders to Help Workers Hit by Shutdown

[I]  Russia Starts Gradual Oil Output Cuts as OPEC+ Deal Kicks In

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Releases Detailed Transcripts of 2013 Policy Meetings

[I]  How Aging Japan Defied Demographics and Revived Its Economy

[I]  U.S. Consumer Prices Ticked Lower in December

[I]  Shutdown Could End 99-Month Job Growth Streak

[I]  Economists Grapple With Industry’s ‘Reputation for Hostility’ Toward Women

[I]  Fed Debate Heats Up Over the Size of Its Bond Holdings

[I]  Fed’s Powell Affirms Flexible Rate Outlook

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  More and more Indian women are buying life insurance, suggests IRDAI study

[I]  Manufacturing drags Nov IIP to 17-month low

[I]  Angel tax: Venture capitalists’ body comes up with fresh suggestions

[I]  ADB looks to scale up India funding to $4 billion

[I]  ‘Brokers should separate trading, clearing arms in cash market, too’

[I]  Rabi sowing down by 3 million hectares across the board

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve swells by $2.68 billion to $396 billion

[I]  Rupee misses Fed-inspired rally to again become worst Asian currency

[I]  India's Iranian oil imports slide in December under U.S. pressure

[I]  India takes European Union to WTO's safeguard committee over duty on steel products

[I]  Industrial growth falls to 17-month low of 0.5 per cent in November

[I]  Government spending over Rs 20,000 crore to fix accident prone spots: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  India’s monetary policy framework needs to adjust to emerging realities

[I]  Cabinet nod to India-Japan USD 75-bn swap arrangement to curb currency volatility

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Trump promises policy changes to allow H1B visa workers US citizenship

[I]  Three global telcos keen to provide services on domestic flights

[I]  Govt revenue will take Rs 1-trillion hit due to GST rate cuts: Jaitley

[I]  ADB backs govt's basic income plan, but cautions against loan waivers

[I]  Draft industrial policy sets aside job creation target, focuses on MSMEs

[I]  Government lifts condition restricting export incentive under GST

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

12 Jan 2019

TODAY IS YOUR DAY; THIS DAY IS DETERMINED TO BLESS YOU. WISHING A BLESSED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Jan 2019

 

India's December retail inflation is expected to have eased to its lowest since June 2017 as food costs fell and fuel prices rose at a slower pace. India on Thursday launched a programme to rein in dangerous pollution levels in more than a hundred cities that the government said it expected to improve air quality significantly. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank would be patient in raising interest rates this year after global growth worries gripped financial markets in recent weeks. Countries watching the U.S.-China trade talks are anxious for the two sides to reach a deal and avert the damage that a protracted fight poses to the global economy—even if many see the potential to benefit from the dispute. Consumer and producer prices decelerated sharply in China last month, compounding the challenge for Beijing in boosting sluggish demand in a deepening economic downturn.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Church leaders challenge Congolese election result

[I]  Mexico’s clampdown on fuel theft sparks backlash

[I]  Corporate America distances itself from Trump’s policies

[I]  Orban calls for anti-migrant takeover of EU institutions

[I]  ECB urged to keep options open as stimulus ends

[I]  Belarus dismisses speculation of unification with Russia

[I]  German business calls for tougher stance on China

 

REUTERS

[I]  Mexicans embrace bikes, scooters as fuel shortage drags on

[I]  Asia stocks at one-month high, focus stays on U.S-China trade talks

[I]  Trump threatens to use emergency power to build wall, end shutdown

[I]  Fed's Powell again stresses patience as U.S. economy's 'narrative' unfolds

[I]  Oil rises again but global economic concerns cap gains

[I]  India's inflation in December likely hit lowest since June 2017

[I]  U.S. weekly jobless claims showcase economy's strength

[I]  Sri Lanka seeks to lower IMF fiscal targets after political crisis

[I]  U.S. expects China's top trade negotiator to visit 'most likely' this month

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Top Fed Officials Pledge Patience, Willingness to Act If Needed

[I]  U.S.-China Speed Dating Isn’t Enough to Tame Global Headwinds

[I]  The Winners and Losers of Big Oil's Offshore Spending Revival

[I]  This May Be the Year Japan's Yen Finally Reclaims 100 Per Dollar

[I]  Stock Picking Gets Harder in China as Shares Move in Tandem

[I]  Bond-Market Inflation Gauges Give Fed Plenty of Room to Pause

[I]  China Yuan Defies Economic Slowdown, for Now, With Fed Help

[I]  Australia’s Housing-Sector Slump Shows Up in Another Sickly Set of Data

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Powell Affirms Flexible Rate Outlook

[I]  Fed Sent Lower Remittances to U.S. Treasury in 2018

[I]  Most Economists Expect Fed Will Hold Rates Steady at Least Until June

[I]  Trump Administration Nears Release of New Overtime Proposal

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Fight Shakes Global Economy, but Isn’t All Bad for Bystanders

[I]  Federal Employee Unemployment Claims Jump in Wake of Shutdown

[I]  China’s Sluggish Prices Raise Deflation Fears

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Big relief for small businesses under GST

[I]  Amid quota battle, govts yet to fill 28 lakh jobs

[I]  Kerala to levy calamity cess up to 1% over and above GST

[I]  Experts stress on need for new models of data collection

[I]  Home buyers will have to wait longer for relief

[I]  India, Japan bilateral currency swap gets Cabinet nod

[I]  Centre mulls transport subsidy for States to push farm exports

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Will RBI ease lending curbs on PSBs? This factor will decide

[I]  RBI defers capital buffer norms by a year

[I]  Sluggish shrimp production hits Indian seafood export

[I]  India's sugar mills struggling to export surplus as overseas prices fall

[I]  GST council meet: Will there be any relief & rate cuts for real state?

[I]  60% registered dealers may escape GST net if turnover threshold doubled

[I]  Poll-India's inflation in December likely hit lowest since June 2017

[I]  GST council meet: Relief for SMEs, real estate and lottery referred to GoM

[I]  Considering transport subsidy to states for promoting agri exports: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  GST exemption limit doubled to give relief to small businesses

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Unemployment rose to a 4-year high during demonetisation: Govt survey

[I]  Govt to carry over Rs 25,000 crore in pending petroleum subsidies to FY20

[I]  Govt doubles GST exemption limit for MSMEs; 2 million businesses to benefit

[I]  RBI panel on MSMEs to chalk out plan to resolve liquidity crisis in sector

[I]  Sebi brings stricter cybersecurity framework for mutual funds, AMCs

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10901;  USDINR DGCX: 70.5775;  DJIA Mini: 23939;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6892;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20337;  EUR-USD: 1.1516; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.32;  Gold (Spot): 1290

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 Jan 2019

IF ELEVATOR IS OUT OF ORDER, USE THE STAIRS… ONE STEP AT A TIME. WISHING AN ELEVATED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Jan 2019

 

FED officials signalled they are unlikely to raise interest rates for at least a few months while they assess the impact of recent market volatility on the U.S. economy. The U.S. and China wrapped up their first face-to-face trade negotiations making progress toward an agreement but leaving the thorniest issues to be resolved in higher-level talks. The eurozone’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate in more than a decade, a sign that the economic slowdown is unlikely to turn quickly into a recession, but rates in Southern Europe remain high. Fresh signs of a weakening German economy are raising fears that last year’s slowdown could spill into 2019, deepening the challenges facing policy makers. The pace of growth across most of the U.S. economy slowed by more than expected in December, although activity continued to expand at a healthy rate. Bank Indonesia’s signalled that the central bank won’t raise the rate soon.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Rolls-Royce enjoys record car sales after US tax cuts

[I]  US-China trade talks conclude as hopes of progress rise

[I]  France to forge ahead with reforms despite protests

[I]  Trio of Fed officials urge patience on rates outlook

[I]  Eurozone jobless rate slips below 8% for first time in a decade

[I]  For EU business, normality has rarely looked so challenging

 

REUTERS

[I]  India sets 10 percent jobs quota for less well-off

[I]  Rupee seen facing more punishment, but no new record low: Reuters poll

[I]  China says trade talks with U.S. set foundation to resolve concerns

[I]  U.S. Fed may be open to changes to balance sheet plan, minutes show

[I]  Mexican fuel shortage worries industry as lines grow in capital

[I]  China says trade talks with U.S. set foundation to resolve concerns

[I]  BOJ's Kuroda: Japan economy to continue expanding moderately

[I]  Fed policymakers say U.S. rate hikes can wait, for now

[I]  Weak German imports widen trade surplus in November

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Poised for Battle With His Own Party on Trade-War Powers

[I]  Treasury Yield Brush With a `Death Cross' Cheers Bond Bulls

[I]  China Says Beijing Talks Lay Foundation For Trade Resolution

[I]  Britain's Beleaguered Retailers Had Worst Christmas Since 2008

[I]  Offshore Investors Pile on Bearish Bets Against Australia Stocks

[I]  Weakest Treasuries Demand Since 2008 Sends Bond-Market Warning

[I]  More Fed Officials Pile on Bandwagon Favoring Rate-Hike Pause

[I]  U.S. Pushes China on Promises After ‘In-Depth’ Trade Meetings

[I]  Don’t Mention Brexit! U.K. Companies Avoid Saying the ‘B’ Word

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Is Unlikely to Raise Rates in Next Months

[I]  Should You Fear the Yield Curve?

[I]  Most New Voting Members of Fed Back Rate Pause

[I]  U.S. and China Make Progress on Trade, but Major Hurdles Remain

[I]  Business Lobby Gains Sway in Bid for U.S.-China Trade Peace

[I]  Riches to Rags: Swiss Central Bank Swings from Record Profit to Large Loss

[I]  As Unemployment Shrinks in Europe, Big Disparities Linger

[I]  Germany Shows Symptoms of Deeper Economic Pain

[I]  U.S. Service-Sector Growth Slowed in December

[I]  Bank Indonesia: Benchmark Rate Already Near Its Peak  

[I]  How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  No TDS for long-term property lease premium, says Mumbai’s Income-tax Appellate Tribunal

[I]  World Bank retains India’s FY19 growth forecast at 7.3%

[I]  Digital payments security: A new challenge for the Aadhaar architect

[I]  US team to visit India, lobby for roll-back of import duties on mobiles, ICT products

[I]  Britain to test immigration proposals in India

[I]  Tomato rates double in Kolar, S India’s largest wholesale market

[I]  Despite healthy traction in loans, provisioning takes a toll on earnings

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Record rice procurement on the cards

[I]  India Inc expects over 7% growth in next 12 months: Survey

[I]  Tea export to Pakistan on the rise: Tea Board data

[I]  Sri Lanka's Central Bank gets $400 million swap from RBI

[I]  India poised to become third-largest consumer market: WEF

[I]  Confederation of Indian Industry seeks corporate tax cut, higher I-T slab

[I]  In drive against shell companies, KYC to be made mandatory for firms

[I]  India needs to adopt middle path on data protection: NITI Aayog

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Chinese firms face scrutiny from govt departments, domestic rivals in India

[I]  GST Council meet today: PM Modi wants exemption limit raised to Rs 75 lakh

[I]  Not necessary to start insolvency against principal borrower first: NCLAT

[I]  Cartels set up 'briefcase' firms, defraud GST regime of thousands of crores

[I]  2019 might see the beginning of a new era of regulatory technology

[I]  Wealthy investors re-thinking realty exposure, favour equities instead

[I]  Consumers using third-party payment apps much more than bank: Survey

[I]  With rise in consumer-facing biz, service firms emerge as PE sweet spot

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10902;  USDINR DGCX: 70.6675;  DJIA Mini: 23722;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6812;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20141;  EUR-USD: 1.1563; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.85;  Gold (Spot): 1297

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 Jan 2019