YIPPEEE! ITS SATURDAY TODAY; SIT SETTLE AND SIP. WISHING A SUPER WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 24 Aug 2019

 

India is rolling back recent tax hikes on foreign and domestic equity investors and is accelerating a capital infusion of $10 billion into state-run banks, in an attempt to boost market sentiment and revive the slowing economy. Britain is hoping the rest of the European Union falls in behind France and Germany and agrees to work on solving a deadlock over Brexit, but conscious of the need for a wider consensus in Europe. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave his most forceful warning yet about the risks to the U.S. economy from escalating trade tensions and the limits to the central bank’s ability to cushion any fallout. Latest round in trade war set to hit U.S. vehicles, agriculture hard. Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said, “Central banks should consider joining forces to create a virtual currency that could supplant the dollar’s role in the global economy”, offering a novel solution to concerns about the greenback’s status as the world’s foremost reserve currency.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump lifts Chinese tariffs after stocks tumble

[I]  Stunned Greenlanders say no to sale but welcome investors

[I]  India embarks on car-buying spree to boost flagging economy

[I]  Carney calls for global monetary system to replace dollar

[I]  Central banks have lost much of their clout

[I]  The case for working a decade longer — or more

 

REUTERS

[I]  India rolls back tax hike on investors; outlines steps to boost sentiment

[I]  Trump heaps another 5% tariff on Chinese goods in latest tit-for-tat escalation

[I]  As EU threatens trade retaliation, Brazil sends army to fight Amazon fires

[I]  Japan, U.S. made 'big progress' in trade talks: Japanese minister

[I]  India's summer crop acreage down 2.3%, sowing gap narrows

[I]  Encouraged by Johnson's visit, UK officials now hoping rest of EU agrees to work on Brexit solution

[I]  Fed's Powell vs. Trump: who's got a 'feel' for markets now?

[I]  UK economy headed for stagnation in third quarter: Bank of England's Carney

[I]  World needs to end risky reliance on U.S. dollar: Bank of England's Carney

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Says It’s Trade, Not Rates, That’s Undermining the U.S. Economy

[I]  IMF Mission Arrives in Argentina Saturday for Crucial Review

[I]  Carney Says No-Deal Brexit Would Probably Lead to BOE Easing

[I]  Peso Slump Turns Argentina Into a Bargain -- at Least for a Day

[I]  Central Banker Sees No Room for Colombia Interest Rate Cuts

[I]  German Chancellery Also Sees Mild Recession, Spiegel Reports

[I]  Trade War to Last Longer Than Boost From Fed Cuts, Analysts Say

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Issues Warning Over Trade, Signals More Rate Cuts Are Possible

[I]  Trump Lashes Out at China, Sending Markets Falling

[I]  Latest Round in Trade War Set to Hit U.S. Vehicles, Agriculture Hard

[I]  Divided G-7 Leaders Headed for Clashes at Tense Summit

[I]  BOE’s Carney Floats Idea of New, Virtual Reserve Currency

[I]  Fed’s Clarida Shrugs Off Market Drop, Offers Little Guidance on Rates

[I]  Papers Outline Increased Fed Focus on Global Factors and Communication

[I]  Mexican Economy Stagnated in Second Quarter

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Stimulus package: New measures unveiled for auto sector to boost demand

[I]  India’s GDP expansion much higher than global growth: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman

[I]  Stimulus package: Auto industry cheers FM’s booster dose

[I]  Super rich surcharge for equity investors rolled back, CSR violations not be a crime

[I]  Market sell-off due to overall slowdown: SEBI chief

[I]  Stimulus package: MSMEs to get pending GST refunds within 30 days, says FM

[I]  Job creation down 5.36% in June to 12.19 lakh: ESIC payroll data

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  FM's GST move that no one saw coming

[I]  No more super rich tax on foreign investors

[I]  Angel tax no longer a demon for startups

[I]  Inside India’s messy e-vehicle revolution

[I]  India has 7 of world’s 10 worst bank stocks

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $70.8 million to $430.5 billion

[I]  Rupee weakens to 72 against US dollar for first time in 2019

[I]  Bond world on high alert after rallying to historical extremes

[I]  Banks suggest easier farm loan rules to remove stress

[I]  Moody's cuts India GDP growth forecast to 6.2 pc for 2019

[I]  Code on Wages 2019 becomes a reality; minimum wage for 50 crore workers on the anvil

[I]  Govt to upfront infuse Rs 70,000-cr capital into public sector banks

[I]  Unprecedented situation for govt in 70 years: Niti Aayog VC on liquidity crisis

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Donald Trump orders firms out of China as Beijing sets new duties

[I]  Confident of hitting tax-collection target, says FM Nirmala Sitharaman

[I]  Govt sets up task force to streamline infra projects worth Rs 100 trillion

[I]  Govt's reform push: Business income may also see surcharge relief

[I]  Surcharge rollback to capital for PSBs, FM announces steps to boost economy

[I]  Markets likely to react positively on Monday after FM's announcements

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

24 Aug 2019

EVERYONE IS PLACED WHERE NEEDED; FACE FRIDAY WITH FUN. WISHING AN EXCITING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 23 Aug 2019

 

India leads in global black tea output with northern bumper. Govt declares ocean energy as green power. Asia’s 20 Richest Families Control $450 Billion. Manufacturing activity is falling in most of the world’s advanced economies, another sign that a deepening global slowdown is weighing on the U.S. expansion. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s challenge in the weeks ahead is to articulate clearly why the central bank is likely to continue reducing rates absent obvious signs of economic deterioration. European Central Bank officials gave a further signal that they would launch a big stimulus package next month, which could include rate cuts and asset purchases, in an effort to arrest the region’s economic slowdown.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU plans sweeping regulation of facial recognition

[I]  Companies under pressure to declare ‘social purpose’

[I]  Hong Kong’s ‘Gang of Four’ hit back at Beijing

[I]  ECB discussed changing inflation target as frustration mounts

[I]  Sudan’s new PM vows to rebuild battered economy

[I]  EU floats plan for €100bn sovereign wealth fund

[I]  ECB extends timescale for banks to make bad loan provisions

 

REUTERS

[I]  Auto companies in India cut more jobs, halt production to tackle slowdown

[I]  Indians pawning the family gold amid credit crunch

[I]  Japan's July core inflation hovers at two-year low, adds pressure on BOJ

[I]  Japan, U.S. negotiators fail to reach agreement on trade, to extend talks

[I]  South Korea to propose 9.2% spending increase in 2020 budget to support growth

[I]  North Korea says ready for dialogue or confrontation with U.S.

[I]  Is the U.S. economy sinking or the strongest ever? For the Fed, no clear answer

[I]  Too late for new Brexit deal, France's Macron tells Johnson

[I]  Two Fed officials see no case for rate cut now; Kaplan 'open-minded'

[I]  U.S. factories show signs of trouble; labor market still firm

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Bond World on High Alert Over ‘Frickin’ Expensive’ Treasuries

[I]  Japan Lines Up to Join Germany in All-Negative Yield Curve Club

[I]  A Weaker Aussie Is Making Life Easier for the RBA. Trump Isn’t

[I]  Bears Beware, Yuan Slide May End Soon as China Anniversary Looms

[I]  Asia’s 20 Richest Families Control $450 Billion

[I]  Turmoil in Hong Kong’s Streets and Markets Keeps Investors Worried

[I]  Powell, Carney to Speak at Jackson Hole But Draghi, Kuroda Skip

[I]  London Homes Are Becoming More Affordable Though Few May Notice

[I]  Argentina’s Line in the Sand for the Peso Is Holding Firm

[I]  Bond Plumbing May Be What Spurs Fed Cuts Rather Than Economy

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Faces Challenge Defining Doctrine Around When to Cut Rates

[I]  Stumbling Global Economies Fan Recession Fears

[I]  Three Fed Officials Offer Diverging Views on Rate Cuts in TV Interviews

[I]  Price of Good Economy: More Time Stuck in Traffic

[I]  ECB Minutes Back Up Signals of Broad Stimulus Package

[I]  Big Banks Struggled With Fed Communications Ahead of July FOMC

[I]  Kaplan: Risks From Global Growth, Trade Uncertainty Could Mean Rate Cut

[I]  Central Bankers’ Jackson Hole Retreat: A Cheat Sheet

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Super-rich surcharge leaves financial sector poorer as FPIs pull out ₹6,700 cr

[I]  Stimulus to industry creates moral hazard, says CEA

[I]  India leads in global black tea output with northern bumper

[I]  Govt declares ocean energy as green power

[I]  Non-govt pensioners to once again get commuted value of pension after 15 years

[I]  SEZ rules may be tweaked to let excess land be used for factories

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  CEOs are scared of the slump. Very scared.

[I]  Carmakers are axing more jobs than ever

[I]  The economy is sinking, and so are your jobs

[I]  Yuan slide may end soon as China anniversary looms

[I]  World’s first 30-year bond with zero coupon flops in Germany

[I]  Heavy rains across South Bengal turns as a blessing to farmers

[I]  Slowdown in certain sectors limit job options

[I]  Labour code on mandatory minimum wages notified

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  IMF raises doubts about India's tax revenue estimates, GDP growth target

[I]  Biscuits to soaps, slowdown pain for FMCG companies comes in small packs

[I]  Govt offers resolution for pre-GST disputes with tax authorities

[I]  Unprecedented financial sector crisis in 70 years, says NITI Aayog

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10709;  USDINR DGCX: 72.2700;  DJIA Mini: 26301;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7147;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20670;  EUR-USD: 1.1073; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.46;  Gold (Spot): 1496

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

23 Aug 2019

FUN IS EVERYWHERE; EVEN RIGHT BELOW OUR NOSE. WISHING A PLEASURABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Aug 2019

 

Weak growth is highest priority: RBI policy minutes. India's July crude oil imports declined from a year earlier, while petrol imports climbed to their highest since at least April 2011 as per the data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). IMF warns against rate cuts, currency intervention to improve trade balance. Whether the U.S. is going into an economic downturn, Washington policy makers and Wall Street investors on Wednesday barrelled into an even more difficult problem: There are few good options to deal with one if it happens. Federal deficits are projected to grow by $809 billion, to $12.2 trillion, over the next decade thanks to the two-year budget agreement struck last month, the Congressional Budget Office said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel challenged Britain to come up with alternatives to the Irish border backstop within 30 days, but French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned there would be no renegotiation of the Brexit deal.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Falling cost of debt presses governments to spend

[I]  Merkel hopeful Brexit deadlock can be overcome

[I]  US budget deficit forecast to swell to $960bn by end of 2019

[I]  Central bankers seek fresh tools to combat slowdown

[I]  White House eyes indefinite detention for migrant families

[I]  US and Japan in race to finalise partial trade deal

[I]  Nigeria’s president unveils cabinet to push reforms

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fed was divided on rate cut, wanted to avoid appearing on path for more cuts

[I]  Weak growth is highest priority: RBI policy minutes

[I]  How Brazil and Vietnam are tightening their grip on the world's coffee

[I]  India's July petrol imports hit highest in at least eight years

[I]  Australia to crack down on high-stakes derivatives trading

[I]  After Germany hints at compromise, France tells UK: no new Brexit deal

[I]  SEBI allows rating agencies to collect clients' debt data

[I]  Hong Kong protesters clash with police, angry at lack of prosecutions after subway mob attack

[I]  IMF warns against rate cuts, currency intervention to improve trade balance

[I]  Japan August manufacturing shrinks for fourth month as export orders fall: flash PMI

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong Faces Worst Earnings Recession Since 2008 Crisis

[I]  Fed May Be More Aggressive With Bond Buying Next Time Around

[I]  Australia and New Zealand’s Central Banks Are Leading What Seems to Be a Race to the Bottom

[I]  Shadow Bank Crackdown Accelerates in India Amid Cash Squeeze

[I]  Billionaires Are Facing a Corporate Debt Reckoning in India

[I]  Fed Saw July Rate Cut as Insurance for Growth and Inflation

[I]  Mortgage Refinancings at 3-Year High, Fueled by Low Rates

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Officials See Few Options if Slowdown Hits

[I]  Fed Officials Viewed July Rate Cut as ‘Recalibration’ of Policy

[I]  U.S. Job Growth Weaker Through March Than Earlier Reported, New Data Show

[I]  Federal Deficits to Grow More Than Expected in Next Decade, CBO Says

[I]  History Will Remember the Trade War’s Economic Impact, Not the Fed’s

[I]  Capital-Gains Tax Change Would Drive Only Modest Boost, Economists Say

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  UDAY 2.0: States to face cut in funds for missing targets, says Power Minister

[I]  Centre to amend MMDR Act to expedite coal exploration

[I]  Centre planning to set up ESI hospital in all districts of the country: Union Minister

[I]  Govt steps in to curb rising onion prices in Delhi

[I]  India’s GDP growth set to slow further to 5.7% in April-Jun quarter: Nomura

[I]  Ministry clears the air on ‘appointed date’ of M&As

[I]  No deadline set for electric vehicles launch, says official

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forget inflation, RBI has a new headache

[I]  States to face fund cuts for missing UDAY targets

[I]  The downturn in Indian economy could continue

[I]  WB govt to install 180 meteorological observatories in agricultural farms

[I]  India to rank trade partners to gauge restrictiveness

[I]  India's GDP growth set to slow further in Apr-Jun quarter to 5.7 per cent: Nomura

[I]  Chief economic advisor K Subramanian to India Inc: Stop socialising losses

[I]  Compulsory CSR an ‘accident’, may get corrected by finance ministry: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Officials told to build trust with taxpayers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Direct tax collection sees dismal growth; mid-August mop-up growth under 5%

[I]  Sebi eases FPI norms, approves changes in rules prohibiting insider trading

[I]  No deadline: Centre allays auto sector's electric vehicle concerns

[I]  Govt, industry to talk curbing duty evasion by Chinese e-tailers

[I]  Health ministry opposes proposal to hold common entrance exam for varsities

[I]  Minutes of MPC meeting: Fixing weak economic growth remains top priority

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10911;  USDINR DGCX: 71.5050;  DJIA Mini: 26198;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7169;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20590;  EUR-USD: 1.1089; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.62;  Gold (Spot): 1502

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
22 Aug 2019