SOME TRUST IN CHARIOT, SOME TRUST IN CHARIOTEER, SOME TRUST IN WEEKEND TOO. WISHING AN EXTRAORDINARY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 19 Oct 2019

 

The European Union, China, India and several other countries teamed up to coordinate rules and standards for trillions of dollars of private and public "green" investment needed over decades to prevent irreversible climate change. G20 finance ministers likely to back OECD's digital tax proposal. China's third-quarter economic growth slowed more than expected and to its weakest pace in almost three decades. Economists say worst of China’s growth slowdown may be over. US Technology companies, are expected to post a nearly 8% drop in third-quarter profits. In their last public comments, the US FED left the door open to a further reduction in borrowing costs as they continue to assess how household spending, the main driver of U.S. economic growth, is holding up. ECB policy makers cool on more stimulus even if outlook worsens. Kuroda says BOJ could ease policy more, still has tools available. Japan's Aso says risks tilted to downside but encouraged by U.S.-China talks. IMF says deepening negative interest rates an option for Bank of Japan. IMF, World Bank leaders appeal for an end to trade wars and other issues.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Johnson confronts Tory grandees and Labour in Brexit battle

[I]  Slowing Chinese growth delivers blow to global economy

[I]  Trump plots his own ‘brilliant’ course in week of turmoil

[I]  Widespread protests bring Lebanon to a standstill

[I]  France under fire for blocking Balkan-EU accession talks

[I]  Buyers are back in London’s prime property market

 

REUTERS

[I]  China says will work with the U.S. to address each other's core concerns

[I]  Kuroda says BOJ could ease policy more, still has tools available

[I]  IMF sidesteps clash with U.S. over funding, delays shareholding changes to 2023

[I]  Negative interest rates: Bankers at the IMF meeting weigh in

[I]  Tech haves and have-nots face third-quarter tests

[I]  Fed's Clarida keeps rate-cut door open; others less sure

[I]  EU, China, others, team up to coordinate 'green' investment financing

[I]  IMF says deepening negative interest rates an option for Bank of Japan

[I]  Japan's Aso says risks tilted to downside but encouraged by U.S.-China talks

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Venezuela GDP Sinks Amid Rampant Inflation: Central Bank Report

[I]  Against the Tide, Cocoa Growers Plan to Suspend Ethical Programs

[I]  ECB Policy Makers Cool on More Stimulus Even If Outlook Worsens

[I]  Worst of China’s Growth Slowdown May Be Over, Economists Say

[I]  The World’s Flush With Coffee, and Indonesia Wants to Add More

[I]  Traders Brace for Canadian Earnings, Election as Drama Heats Up

[I]  On the Streets, New IMF Is Getting Same Pushback as the Old One

[I]  Charting the Global Economy: The Week in Review

[I]  Traders Now Almost Certain That Fed Will Cut Rates This Month

[I]  In a Global Coffee Glut, Top Brazil Grower Runs Out of Beans

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Eyes Another Rate Cut, Weighs When to Stop

[I]  Fed’s Kaplan Says Jury Is Out on Whether Economy Will Need More Support

[I]  Fed’s Clarida Says Central Bank Will ‘Act as Appropriate’ to Sustain Growth

[I]  China Economic Growth Slows Even More in Third Quarter

[I]  Top Economic Advisers Warned Trump on Tariffs Before China Truce

[I]  Manufacturing Sputters as Broader U.S. Economy Slows

[I]  Cooling Economy Drives China to Prioritize Growth

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India to produce record cotton crop for 2019-20, predicts USDA

[I]  India’s employment challenge may worsen as robots snatch away jobs

[I]  Commerce Secretary calls meeting with export promotion councils next week

[I]  India looks to consolidate oil-spill handling equipment at ports

[I]  FSSAI Milk Survey: 7 per cent milk samples found unfit for consumption

[I]  China's GDP growth grinds to near 30-year low as tariffs hit ...

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Did car sales go up or down? Data from govt stumps many

[I]  Diwali cheer for consumer durables sector

[I]  Tax assessment norms could be changed: PM

[I]  GST regulation puts companies in a fix

[I]  Brexit deal helps keep euro close to 7-week high

[I]  Individual wealth in India grows 9.62% in FY19: Report

[I]  Companies under NCLT asked to inform about export liabilities

[I]  Labour Ministry extends utility service status for three industries

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Sebi tightens norms to deal with abrupt resignations of auditors

[I]  More flights to take to the skies this winter despite economic slowdown

[I]  MPC minutes: Members were concerned about growth, rate transmission

[I]  Companies push ahead with proposed share buyback plans after tax relief

[I]  Prices of tomato linked food items may spike 5-10% following crop loss

[I]  China eases M&A rules for listed companies to spur restructuring

[I]  IMF, World Bank leaders appeal for an end to trade wars and other issues

[I]  G20 finance ministers likely to back OECD's digital tax proposal

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Oct 2019

MAKE THE DAYS COUNT FOR YOU; BEHOLD, ITS A SPECIAL DAY. WISHING A ‘FUNTASTIC’ FRIDAY.

Macro Economic News 18 Oct 2019

 

India ranked third in 2019 Hurun Global Unicorn List; China pips US to top ranking. Currency in circulation jumps by Rs 19,699 crore, total kitty hits Rs 22 lakh crore. India is likely to miss its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of gross domestic product for the current financial year by 30-50 basis points due to the sharp slowdown in the economy that has severely crimped tax collection goals. World Bank President David Malpass said that clarity over Britain's exit from the European Union would strengthen the outlook for global growth, aiding both rich nations and the developing world. U.S. manufacturing production fell in September, adding to evidence that slowing global growth and trade frictions are weighing on the economy. SEC opens debate on finding alternatives to IPOs. Germany’s thirst for workers shows paradox in its slowdown. Japan's inflation hits 2-1/2-year low, raises stimulus chance this month. Philippines Sees Around 6% Growth in 2019 on Fiscal Stimulus.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Johnson Brexit gambit hangs in balance 

[I]  Venezuela elected to UN rights body despite record

[I]  Merkel demands Germany retain EU budget rebate

[I]  Germany’s thirst for workers shows paradox in its slowdown

[I]  Iran in ‘severe distress’ from US sanctions, says IMF

[I]  Russia reaps windfalls of Trump’s chaos

[I]  SEC opens debate on finding alternatives to IPOs

 

REUTERS

[I]  India to miss fiscal deficit target by 30-50 bps - sources

[I]  Johnson agrees Brexit deal, but must now win over parliament

[I]  Japan's inflation hits 2-1/2-year low, raises stimulus chance this month

[I]  Sterling holds gains near 5-month top on Brexit deal, but hurdles remain

[I]  Turkey agrees with U.S. to pause Syria assault while Kurds withdraw

[I]  Trump defends Middle East policy, says Islamic State is under control

[I]  IMF, World Bank see Brexit deal boosting global growth outlook

[I]  U.S. homebuilding retreats, manufacturing still struggling

[I]  IMF says Japan can ramp up fiscal stimulus if tax hike sinks growth

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Convertible Bond Market Shows Signs of Roaring to Life

[I]  Brazil Expected to Oust Vietnam as World's Top Robusta Coffee Grower

[I]  Japan Rides Global REIT Rally, Driving Index to 12-Year High

[I]  Negative Rates in Australia Extraordinarily Unlikely, Lowe Says

[I]  Philippines Sees Around 6% Growth in 2019 on Fiscal Stimulus

[I]  Record Inflows to Brazil Equity Funds Defy Fleeing Foreigners

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Manufacturing Sputters as Broader U.S. Economy Slows

[I]  Fed’s Williams Touts Interventions for Stabilizing Short-Term Markets

[I]  Questions Cloud China’s Commitment to Farm Purchases

[I]  Exchange Rates Deal $22.56 Billion Blow to Companies’ Earnings

[I]  Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Record Low: N.Y. Fed

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  High-voltage relief: Select States may get PFC loan to clear dues to power firms

[I]  India will soon become a gas trading hub, says Pradhan

[I]  FMCG performance in rural India worst in 7 years: Nielsen

[I]  Low over Arabian Sea could spur activity in N-E monsoon

[I]  India ranked third in 2019 Hurun Global Unicorn List; China pips US to top ranking

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Inside India's plan to be a solar powerhouse

[I]  New MNP regime: All you need to know

[I]  Microlenders focuses on growing loan book size: Report

[I]  Currency in circulation jumps by Rs 19,699 crore, total kitty hits Rs 22 lakh crore

[I]  Niti Innovation Index: Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra ranked top three states in innovation

[I]  New industrial policy not to replicate state models

[I]  Regulator, auditor should be held responsible for frauds in banks: Anurag Thakur

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Brexit deal spells good news for India Inc with large investments in UK

[I]  Brexit showdown in Commons on Saturday as UK, EU get nearer to divorce

[I]  Govt likely to remove controversial bail-in provision from FRDI Bill

[I]  I-T dept may sell two dozen properties in FY20 over huge maintenance costs

[I]  Jewellers hope to sail through festive season on discounts, demand revival

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11579;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2100;  DJIA Mini: 26999;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7163;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22540;  EUR-USD: 1.1124; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.91;  Gold (Spot): 1491

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
18 Oct 2019

THIS DAY IS EMPOWERING EMPATHY TO EVERYONE. WISHING A COMPASSIONATE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Oct 2019

 

India halved its poverty rate since 1990s: World Bank. Britain and the European Union were on the verge of a last-minute Brexit deal but Prime Minister Boris Johnson still has work to do at home to ensure his government and factious parliament approve the plan. Events in the week show that the two economic superpowers, though reaching a truce in their trade war, are drifting closer to a new Cold War. American shoppers pulled back on spending, signalling a key support for the U.S. economy this year could be softening amid a broader global economic slowdown. The central bank is buying short-term Treasury debt, but officials say the purchases are nothing like the bond-buying stimulus unleashed by the central bank between 2008 and 2014 to support the economy. Eurozone inflation rate drops to three-year low as outlook darkens. Brazil central bank chief vows to ‘reinvent’ economy. Australia unemployment rate dips; still long way to go. Low interest rates fuel financial risk-taking, IMF warns.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Hong Kong’s rich open foreign bank accounts amid unrest

[I]  Austria’s far-right rocked by tensions after poll drubbing

[I]  China’s cash injection highlights policymaker concerns

[I]  Low interest rates fuel financial risk-taking, IMF warns

[I]  Hong Kong chief Carrie Lam says city is in ‘recession’

[I]  Brexit negotiators wrangle over deal terms

[I]  US retail sales fall by the most in seven months

[I]  Eurozone inflation rate drops to three-year low as outlook darkens

[I]  Brazil central bank chief vows to ‘reinvent’ economy

[I]  EU risks trade fight over carbon border tax plan

[I]  South Korea cuts rates to record low to boost growth

 

REUTERS

[I]  Gold steady as disappointing U.S. retail sales weigh on risk appetite

[I]  Dollar, pound tread water; Aussie bolstered by jobs report

[I]  World Bank likely to cut global growth forecasts again: Malpass

[I]  Australia unemployment rate dips, still long way to go

[I]  U.S. diplomats, Congress take aim at China; Trump expects trade deal signing

[I]  Southeast Asia's mobile payments face shakeout as market booms

[I]  Weak U.S. retail sales cast shadow over slowing economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  What to Watch in China GDP Report: Investment, Trade and Savings

[I]  Hong Kong’s Economy Is Failing. Here’s How It Could Be Saved

[I]  Hedge Fund’s Liquidity Crisis Spurs Contagion Fears in Korea

[I]  China Office Vacancies Reach Decade High on Slowing Economy

[I]  ‘Trade for Free’ Offer Aims to Lure Rupee Trading Home to India

[I]  Everyone Backs Budget Spending Except People Who Control Budgets

[I]  IMF Will Include Climate in Country Analysis, Georgieva Says

[I]  Japan Extends Lead on China as Top Foreign Holder of Treasuries

[I]  Fed's Brainard Views Cost-Benefit of Negative Rates Unattractive

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Despite Trade Truce, U.S.-China Cold War Edges Closer

[I]  U.S. Retail Sales Fell in September

[I]  Fed Is Buying Treasurys Again. Don’t Call It Quantitative Easing.

[I]  Germany’s Central-Bank Chief Warns of U.S.-Europe Trade-War Dangers

[I]  Questions Cloud China’s Commitment to Farm Purchases

[I]  Newsletter: World Economy Heading for Worst Year Since Financial Crisis

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Fundamentals of economy ‘very very strong’: CEA

[I]  India’s aim of being a $5-tn economy is ‘challenging’ but ‘realisable’: Sitharaman

[I]  India’s fuel demand dips to lowest in over two years

[I]  ICRA revises outlook for one-third of wind, solar projects, sees near term headwinds

[I]  North-East monsoon arrives, heavy rain forecast for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka

[I]  How the monsoon’s delayed withdrawal from India may cause havoc in Australia

[I]  Livestock population in India rises 4.6 per cent to nearly 536 million, shows census

[I]  Commercial credit growth registers a marked slowdown in Q1

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's falling credit growth dims hope of economic rebound

[I]  India's falling oil demand adds fuel to slump fire

[I]  Sterling gives up some gains as Brexit optimism curbed

[I]  FIEO delegation to explore business opportunities in Africa

[I]  IMF urges largest economies to be prepared to engage in coordinated policy action

[I]  India halved its poverty rate since 1990s: World Bank

[I]  India-bound FDI may face thorough frisking

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Cross-bred, female cattle population on the rise: Livestock census

[I]  Rs 75,000-crore minimum alternate tax credit dilemma grips India Inc

[I]  Govt to bring back FRDI Bill, may hike insurance cover of customers

[I]  India cannot sacrifice economic strength to comply with US sanctions: FM

[I]  Tour operators promising guaranteed departures, low cancellation charges

[I]  Automobile slowdown: Number of vehicles crossing toll gates slowing

[I]  Sale of durable products yet to pick up beyond major urban conglomerates

[I]  Entry-level, premium bikes buck trend by reporting growth amid slowdown

[I]  States put the foot down on capex; outlays up 17% during FY15-19

[I]  Southern cities feeling the heat of residential slowdown, says report

[I]  Fundamentals of economy 'very very strong', says CEA Subramanian

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11492;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4850;  DJIA Mini: 26940;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7151;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22490;  EUR-USD: 1.1078; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.93;  Gold (Spot): 1488

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
17 Oct 2019