A LITTLE SMILE, A LITTLE FUN, A LITTLE LOVE AND A LITTLE LIFE. WISHING AN AFFECTIONATE WARM WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Apr 2019

 

Global stocks rose as signs of stabilization in China's economy helped riskier assets amid talk that the growth outlook worldwide is better than thought. The idea of a second Brexit referendum is very likely to be put before Britain's parliament again although the government remains opposed to any new plebiscite. Consumers’ outlook on the U.S. economy worsened in April, as a survey suggested the impact of tax cuts has now run its course for American households. The European Union is preparing tariffs on $12 billion of U.S. products. Kim Jong Un’s regime outlined plans to increase government spending on science, technology and infrastructure, despite sanctions that have bruised the cash-strapped nation’s economy. Economists expect that raising the federal minimum wage, even by a relatively small amount, would lead to job losses. The Office of Management and Budget is seeking comment on the possibility of slashing a decades-old rule that prevents U.S. officials from making public statements about key government economic reports until one hour after their release.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Japan’s population decline accelerates despite record immigration

[I]  Extinction Rebellion: inside the new climate resistance

[I]  Shenzhen joins top five cities with most expensive housing

[I]  Malaysia to resume China-built Belt and Road rail project

[I]  China to include businesses in credit score database plan

[I]  US bank chiefs veer from financial to political problems

[I]  UK satellite sector grounded by financial realities

 

REUTERS

[I]  India March inflation picks up slightly, June rate cut still seen

[I]  Chill in global economy prompts G20 call for trade truce

[I]  Kuroda brushes aside view BOJ has run out of tools to ease monetary policy

[I]  North Korea's Kim Jong Un gives U.S. to year-end to become more flexible

[I]  Global markets: China data, JPMorgan results lift stocks, riskier assets

[I]  UK parliament very likely to consider new Brexit referendum: Hammond

[I]  India shifts to net steel importer in 2018/19, first time in three years

[I]  Euro zone industry output falls by less than expected in mild February

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The End of Fed Debt Unwind Is Set. So Treasury's Looking at What's Next

[I]  Growth Stocks Haven't Been This Expensive Since the Dot-Com Peak

[I]  What India's Top Three Mutual Funds Bought and Sold in March

[I]  Oil Bullishness Is at 2019 High as Rally Shows Signs of Sticking

[I]  IMF Warns of Potential Downside Risks From China-U.S. Trade Deal

[I]  ECB Officials Give Tentative Welcome to Negative Rate Review

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Interview Transcripts Tell Story of Fed Over Past 50 Years

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops as Tax-Cut Boost Fades

[I]  EU Prepares Tariffs Against U.S. Amid WTO Battle

[I]  North Korea Offers Rare Glimpse of Its Financial Picture

[I]  Raising Minimum Wage Would Cost Jobs, Say Economists in WSJ Survey

[I]  OMB Proposes Eliminating Waiting Period for Comments on Economic Reports

[I]  Real Time Economics: High Times, Trade Truces and Fed Independence

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Industry growth slows to 0.1% in Feb; retail inflation up at 2.86% in March

[I]  Investor protection is in no party’s manifesto

[I]  CMFRI signs pact with ISRO to map, save coastal wetlands

[I]  Weak demand drags pulses

[I]  Banks need ‘systemic reforms’: Venkaiah Naidu

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve swells by $1.87 billion to $413.8 billion

[I]  $12 billion bond sale fizzles as sell-off extends

[I]  Direct tax target may be scaled down in Budget

[I]  A steel slump gives India a whole new area to worry about

[I]  February IIP growth drops to 20-month low of 0.1%; CPI inflation at 2.86% in March

[I]  Retail inflation edges up to 2.86% in March on costlier food articles

[I]  IIP growth slows to 0.1% in February, CPI for March at 2.86%

[I]  No advance ruling for subsidiaries in India?

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt's infrastructure push sees a demand shift in the cement sector

[I]  Election Commission directs OMCs to halt allocation of petrol pumps

[I]  RBI should not cut its policy interest rate any further, says IMF

[I]  At 2.86%, CPI inflation at 5-month high in March on high food prices

[I]  At 0.1%, India's industrial growth falls to 20-month low in February

[I]  Unutilised defence budget mustn't go to consolidated fund: Sitharaman

[I]  Forex reserves swell by $1.87 billion to $413.8 billion: RBI data

[I]  First weekly decline for indices in 2 months as investors turn cautious

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Apr 2019

THERE ARE SECRET OPPORTUNITIES HIDDEN EVERYWHERE. WISHING A PROMISING FRIDAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Apr 2019

 

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect that raising the federal minimum wage, even by a relatively small amount, would lead to job losses. U.S. Jobless Claims Hit a Near 50-Year Low. According to the majority of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at least through the end of 2021. The Office of Management and Budget is seeking comment on the possibility of slashing a decades-old rule that prevents U.S. officials from making public statements about key government economic reports until one hour after their release.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump’s easy-money stance chimes with Republican shift

[I]  Brexit exposes cracks in Franco-German relationship

[I]  May doubles down on Brexit talks with Labour

[I]  Libyan oil chief warns renewed fighting threatens output

[I]  South Korean court rules abortion ban ‘unconstitutional’

[I]  Brexit is like a slow puncture for the UK economy

 

REUTERS

[I]  Singapore central bank stands pat on monetary policy as growth slows

[I]  Oil prices firm amid OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela

[I]  Indian sugar mills owe record $4.38 billion to cane growers

[I]  India Inc is seeking dollar borrowings, but only select firms will find

[I]  Auto tariff war would hurt more than U.S.-China fight - IMF chief economist

[I]  BoE's Carney says UK needs time to find Brexit consensus

[I]  U.S. economy 'healthy' from a monetary policy perspective: Fed's Williams

[I]  U.S. weekly jobless claims lowest since 1969

[I]  Emerging market nations seek collective solution to trade tensions

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Future of China's Growth Glimpsed in Historic Town's Revamp

[I]  In Hong Kong, $1.2 Million Will Only Buy You an Average House

[I]  With Bank Earnings on Deck, Financial Hedges Center on ETFs

[I]  May Hints at Customs Compromise With Labour: Brexit Update

[I]  Foreigners Are Piling Into Indonesian Stocks Ahead of Elections

[I]  Singapore Central Bank Keeps Policy Settings as Growth Slows

[I]  Philippine Rate Cut Is on Table in May, Governor Diokno Says

[I]  Sweet-And-Sour Global Economy Gets Relief Signs, Bleak Forecasts

[I]  Trump's Next Trade Fight, China Stimulus, U.S. Jobless: Eco Day

[I]  Climbing Oil Prices Put India's Benign Inflation Outlook at Risk

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Raising Minimum Wage Would Cost Jobs, Say Economists in WSJ Survey

[I]  Economists See Fed On Hold at Least Through 2021

[I]  GOP Opposition Imperils Trump Pick of Cain for Fed Board

[I]  OMB Proposes Eliminating Waiting Period for Comments on Economic Reports

[I]  Yellen Offers a Warning to Trump’s Central Bank Picks

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Hit a Near 50-Year Low

[I]  Fed’s Williams Happy With Current Monetary Policy Stance

[I]  Federal Reserve’s Bullard: Fed Policy Is in the Right Place for Now

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Fixed maturity plan crisis: Six MFs to take a call on redemption in 3 months

[I]  Builders face tough choice in GST rates for ongoing realty projects

[I]  Sweden stresses on need for EU-India free trade agreement

[I]  EU extends Brexit deadline to October 31, asks Britain to find a way out of impasse

[I]  Lower capacity utilisation hits wind-turbine manufacturers

[I]  Water stress in summer after bountiful rain in monsoon

[I]  Industries dovetailing annual shutdown with summer months

[I]  Share of public sector banks in MSME credit declines to 39%: Report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Price-conscious Indians can trade data online

[I]  RBI's February dollar buys highest in 11 months

[I]  A new forex record coming? Thank RBI's brand new dollar swap

[I]  Indian companies' foreign investment rises 18% to USD 2.69 billion in March

[I]  RBI injected Rs 2.98 lakh crore liquidity in 2018-19

[I]  Sugar exports surge to 17.44 lakh tonnes this year so far: Industry data

[I]  Startups get angel tax breather: 277 startups secure all-clear from Income Tax department

[I]  India's GDP number 'still has some issues': Gita Gopinath

[I]  Arun Jaitley discusses India's economic reforms with investors in US

[I]  India has scope for reducing untargeted food, fertiliser subsidies: IMF

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Unemployment in 11 states exceeds national average, shows NSSO report

[I]  Developers find relief in commercial properties as residential realty lags

[I]  Combination drug market declines 56% in March as govt clamps down

[I]  India brings down trade deficit with China by $10 billion in 2019

[I]  Banks Board Bureau pushes for governance reforms in public sector banks

[I]  Banks close FY19 with 13.24% credit growth, deposits up 10.03%

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11645;  USDINR DGCX: 69.2100;  DJIA Mini: 26182;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7373;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21841;  EUR-USD: 1.1289; Crude Oil (WTI): 63.74;  Gold (Spot): 1293

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
12 Apr 2019

BEING WATCHFUL FOR BLESSINGS ADDS TO RELATIONSHIP. WISHING A BLESSED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Apr 2019

 

Federal Reserve officials signalled greater conviction at their meeting last month that they wouldn’t need to change interest rates this year. U.S. consumer prices rose in March, driven by a rise in volatile oil prices that masked moderate underlying price pressures. The U.S. and China have agreed on an enforcement mechanism for their potential trade deal, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, signaling that the two sides have overcome one of the last hurdles toward reaching a broader pact. The U.S. budget gap widened in the first half of the fiscal year as spending rose faster than revenue, according to the Treasury Department.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  France calls on northern Europe to boost spending

[I]  May ditches plan to bring Brexit bill back to Commons

[I]  Turkey vows to recapitalise state banks and tackle bad debts

[I]  Corporate debt risks amplifying economic fragility, says IMF

[I]  ECB vows to hold rates until ‘at least’ the end of 2019

[I]  Bank CEOs quizzed on Russian money laundering

 

REUTERS

[I]  Merkel says October deadline gives best chance for orderly Brexit

[I]  France's Macron stands by tough stance on shorter Brexit delay

[I]  No sign yet of Trump's tax returns, increasing likelihood of court fight

[I]  U.S.-China trade war is rerouting U.S. import flows: report

[I]  U.S. consumer prices rise solidly, but underlying trend tame

[I]  UK economy grows as pre-Brexit stockpiling lifts factories

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China's Property Market Is Feeling the Stimulus Effect

[I]  Brexit Delayed to End of October in Bid to Avoid No-Deal Split

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Widens to $691 Billion in First Half of 2019

[I]  Fed Officials Can't Agree How Big U.S. Bank Reserves Should Be

[I]  Kuroda Foe Says Japan Will Prove Modern Monetary Theory a Mistake

[I]  Carney Is Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst on Brexit

[I]  House Prices in London, Southeast U.K. Forecast to Keep Falling

[I]  As World's Largest Democracy Votes, Here's Where Markets Stand

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Minutes: Little Need Seen to Change Interest Rates This Year

[I]  Janet Yellen Offers a Warning to Trump’s Latest Central Bank Picks

[I]  U.S. Inflation Stayed Tame in March

[I]  U.S., China Reach Accord on Trade-Deal Enforcement, Mnuchin Says

[I]  It’s Up To the Senate Whether the Fed Is Politicized

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 15% in First Half of Fiscal 2019

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Growth in steel demand to slow to 7.2%

[I]  FDI in pension sector: PFRDA plans to frame guidelines on investment norms

[I]  Analysts expect finance, consumption companies to report robust earnings

[I]  World copper market looking for direction amid uncertainties

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Asian currencies find fresh trade war front too hot to handle

Sebi revises charges related to basic services demat account

[I]  Protectionism, commodity prices, inadequate liquidity are major challenges for exporters: FIEO

[I]  View: India needs a new consensus on growth and opportunity

[I]  Raghuram Rajan's to-do list for the next government of India

[I]  Some reforms in India show benefits of digitalisation: IMF

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  I-T crackdown: Over 100,000, mostly HNIs, come under lens for AY12-13

[I]  PE funds, hospital groups eye regional chains with a sizable footprint

[I]  Carmakers hit the slow lane in FY19; market share gains remained elusive

[I]  IMF flags concern over India's high stock of bad bank loans

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11669;  USDINR DGCX: 69.3900;  DJIA Mini: 26193;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7354;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21693;  EUR-USD: 1.1276; Crude Oil (WTI): 64.40;  Gold (Spot): 1307

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
11 Apr 2019

HUMANITY IS THE DEEPEST OF ALL EMOTIONS. WISHING A HUMANE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Apr 2019

 

European Union leaders will grant Prime Minister May a second delay to Brexit but they could demand she accepts a much longer extension as France pushed for conditions to limit Britain's ability to undermine the bloc. The IMF has cut its global growth outlook for 2019 to 3.3%, from 3.5% in January, with data showing world economic growth off to a worse start than was apparent earlier in the year. The Trump administration sought to play down its new plan to impose tariffs on $11.2 billion in imports from the EU, saying the move is part of a dispute over aviation subsidies, not an effort to apply pressure toward a possible EU trade deal. Job openings fell in February to the lowest level in nearly a year, a sign that demand for workers eased modestly in a month when hiring fell sharply.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  France signals UK could stay in EU almost another year

[I]  Beijing and EU target next year for investment access deal

[I]  IMF cuts global growth forecast amid trade tension

[I]  Long Brexit pause makes sense for the EU and UK

[I]  EU should exploit its maritime industry’s advantage over China

 

REUTERS

[I]  Oil rises amid OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions

[I]  Asian shares slip from eight-month peak as U.S. opens new front in trade war

[I]  New World Bank boss vows to keep climate goals, evolve China relationship

[I]  BOJ Kuroda: Inflation pick-up must be accompanied by wage hikes

[I]  Japan's February machinery orders rebound but investment outlook fragile

[I]  EU to agree Brexit delay but France pushes for conditions

[I]  U.S. senators introduce social media bill to ban 'dark patterns' tricks

[I]  Global economy cooling, coordinated stimulus may be needed: IMF

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Has a Message for the World: My Trade Wars Aren't Over Yet

[I]  Senate Banking Chairman Aligns With Trump on Fed Rate Cuts

[I]  China Home Sales Rebound in March

[I]  Italy's Government Forecast Has the Economy Effectively Stagnating This Year

[I]  Korean Breadwinners Hit Even as Overall Jobs Growth Rises

[I]  Trump Trade Warning, IMF Cuts Outlook, Aussie Wage Rage: Eco Day

[I]  Spreading Drought Adds to Risks for Thailand's Cooling Economy

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  IMF Cuts 2019 Global Growth Outlook

[I]  U.S. Goes on the Offensive Against China’s Empire-Building Megaplan

[I]  U.S. Says Jet-Tariffs Threat Isn’t Tied to Broad EU Trade Push

[I]  Mnuchin Cautions on Brexit and U.S. Debt Default at House Hearing

[I]  Senate Republicans Skeptical of Cain’s Fed Confirmation Chances

[I]  Job Openings Fell by More Than 500,000 in February

[I]  Fed to Review Inflation Targeting, Policy Tools and Communications

[I]  New World Bank Head Vows to Uphold Climate-Change Policies

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Escalate

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  State Bank of India lowers lending rate by 5 basis points across tenors

[I]  IMF cuts India growth forecast for 2019-20 to 7.3 per cent

[I]  Double tax avoidance pact is based on OECD model, says Mauritius

[I]  EV manufacturers want localisation criteria dropped under FAME II

[I]  Income Tax Dept looking at IBC resolution cases for possible tax violations

[I]  CAI trims cotton crop size to 321 lakh bales, lowest since 2009-10

[I]  Cottonseed prices gain 25%, making cattlefeed costlier

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Dollar sags as commodity currencies draw support from crude oil surge

[I]  India's y-o-y cotton exports to fall by 31% in 2018-19, says CAI

[I]  Direct tax mop-up may fall short of Rs 50,000 crore in FY'19, says official

[I]  India meets fiscal deficit target of 3.4% via spending cuts

[I]  India to build developing country coalition with Brazil, China at informal trade ministers’ meet

[I]  US criticises India's data localisation norms, draft e-commerce policy

[I]  IMF cuts India’s growth forecast for 3 years

[I]  PSEs to stay PSUs even with below 51% government stake

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  M&A deals in India decline 16.9% to $25.8 billion in Q1, says report

[I]  Digital medium making 'rapid' strides in traditional sectors

[I]  561,100 housing units facing delays due to demand slowdown: Report

[I]  Capital goods and infrastructure firms report 19% slip in new orders

[I]  New hydropower policy could be last chance for revival of neglected sector

[I]  India delays May order for Iran oil, awaits clarity on US sanctions: Report

 

MARKETS (07:45 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11713;  USDINR DGCX: 69.4775;  DJIA Mini: 26140;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7359;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21650;  EUR-USD: 1.1258; Crude Oil (WTI): 64.08;  Gold (Spot): 1302

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
10 Apr 2019