SELF CONFIDENCE IS SUPER POWER ONCE YOU START BELIEVING IN......WEEKEND. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 19 Jan 2019

 

The trade deal that U.S. negotiators are seeking with China may have more in common with a sanctions-monitoring regime than a traditional trade pact. An index of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in more than two years in January, amid worries about the government shutdown, trade tensions, volatile markets and a cooling global economy. The Trump administration set final rules for a new deduction that will provide significant savings for many business owners, providing more clarity for real-estate owners and service-industry businesses. The European Union made its opening bid in trade talks with the U.S., outlining a narrow goal of slashing tariffs on industrial goods, including motor vehicles, that sets the bloc on a collision course with Washington’s broader agenda.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  NY Fed president warns shutdown is hitting US growth

[I]  Brazil’s gun lovers celebrate relaxation of laws

[I]  Hedge fund outflows were worst in 2 years last quarter

[I]  UK can delay Brexit without holding Europe polls, say lawyers

[I]  IMF urges creditors to agree sharing of bailout burdens

[I]  EU prepared to cut US car tariffs as part of trade pact

[I]  Investors shrug off US banks’ poor results

 

REUTERS

[I]  Exclusive: U.S. demands regular review of China trade reform

[I]  Trump, North Korea's Kim to hold second summit in late February

[I]  How U.S.-China talks differ from any other trade deal 

[I]  'Yellow vest' crisis exposes limits of French welfare system

[I]  Fed policymakers leave little doubt - Rate hikes can wait

[I]  Global Economy: Testing times from Beijing to Wall Street

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore, Malaysia to Meet on Airspace, Maritime Issues Soon

[I]  World Economy Wobbles on Eve of Davos With Politics to Blame

[I]  Oil Gloom Turns to Boom as the Market’s Worst Fears Fade Away

[I]  U.S. Oil-Rig Fleet Shrinks the Most in Almost 3 Years

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Utah Shows How Labor-Force Growth Fuels Economic Growth

[I]  Shutdown, Trade Tensions Weigh on U.S. Households

[I]  Trump Administration Sets Final Rules for New Business Tax Deduction

[I]  Labor Secretary Acosta Says $15 Minimum Wage Would Kill Jobs

[I]  EU’s Focus for U.S. Trade Talks Risks Trans-Atlantic Clash

[I]  U.S. Manufacturers Ramp Up Production Despite Flagging Exports

[I]  The Labor Market Is Strong, Despite Concerns About a Hiccuping Economy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI lays down mechanism to prevent insider trading

[I]  States must compete with each other on the basis of good governance: NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman

[I]  Group insolvency: UK Sinha-headed panel to suggest a suitable framework

[I]  Developments around Brexit have repercussions for India’s external sector, says RBI Governor

[I]  Rabi sowing down by 5%

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Indian gold demand lags on price surge; all eyes on Lunar New Year

[I]  Forex reserve swells by $1.26 billion to $397.35 billion

[I]  New ECB norms limit refinancing options: Fitch

[I]  Foreign buying of emerging Asian bonds fell sharply in 2018

[I]  Veggies face new pests: Low prices, rising input costs

[I]  Government to further ease framework to exorcise angel tax demons

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Global bad debt buyers rethink India plans over resolution delays

[I]  Truck rentals decline amid overcapacity, drop in factory output

[I]  Global hotel chains push into mid-market space outside India's metros

[I]  NPA recognition may drag till FY20, bad loans could spike by Rs 5 trn

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Jan 2019

DIVINE TAKES CARE OF ALL NEEDS AND WORRIES. WISHING A COMFORTING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 18 Jan 2019

 

Britain's last-minute scramble to shape an EU exit, its biggest policy upheaval in half a century, stalled as Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn dug in their heels for competing visions. U.S. officials are debating ratcheting back tariffs on Chinese imports as a way to calm markets and give Beijing an incentive to make deeper concessions in a trade battle that has rattled global economies. A gauge of layoffs across the U.S. fell last week, signaling the labor market remains robust despite fears of slowing economic growth and the government shutdown. Optimism is waning among U.S. businesses as they grapple with a volatile stock market, rising borrowing costs, and concerns about trade and the government shutdown, according to a new Federal Reserve report. U.S. retail sales went gangbusters at the end of 2018, but that momentum could be hard to maintain as consumers deal with higher interest rates and confidence-eroding factors such as the government shutdown and a volatile stock market.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Statistical error puts Japan economic data in doubt

[I]  China’s fourth-quarter GDP: five things to watch

[I]  Smog threatens to suffocate India tourism industry

[I]  The UK needs a more realistic energy strategy

 

REUTERS

[I]  Italy government approves flagship welfare reforms  

[I]  Trump tariffs force tough choices at U.S. auto suppliers

[I]  UK in deadlock over Brexit 'Plan B' as May and Corbyn tussle

[I]  Britain searches for a Brexit 'Plan B'

[I]  Theresa May's government wins no confidence vote

[I]  U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin weighs lifting tariffs on China - WSJ

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Putin’s Push to Dump Dollar Proves Hard Sell With Russia Inc.

[I]  The World's Most-Visited City Faces a Battle Against Toxic Smog

[I]  Brexit Battle Lines Harden as May Stumbles in Search for a Deal

[I]  ‘Goldilocks Economy’ References Are Doomed as the Storms Set In

[I]  Foreign Investors Are on a Record China Property Spree

[I]  Trump's Trade War Forces Chinese Firms to Adapt or Die

[I]  Japan’s Inflation Slows Again as Cheaper Oil Undermines the BOJ

[I]  More BOJ Watchers See Kuroda Locked In to Policy for 2019

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Debates Lifting China Tariffs to Hasten Trade Deal, Calm Markets

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  One Year Later, Benefits From Corporate Tax Cut Seem Muted

[I]  Fed Says Student Debt Has Hurt the U.S. Housing Market

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Shows Concerns Mounting Among U.S. Businesses

[I]  Fed’s Quarles Upbeat on U.S. Economy

[I]  Business Worries About Climate Intensify. Actions to Fix it, Not So Much.

[I]  After a Strong 2018 for Retail Sales, Caution Flags Pop Up

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  To ease liquidity, India Inc wants RBI to cut CRR and repo rate

[I]  Standalone ‘exporting’ power plants will qualify as SEZs

[I]  May struggles to keep Brexit on track as deadlock continues

[I]  Strong rural demand led to double-digit volume growth

[I]  GDP growth likely to be a tad higher at 7.5% in FY20: India Ratings

[I]  Deadline for submission of bids for oilfield auctions extended again

[I]  Print media companies’ operating profit to go up next fiscal: Crisil

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  An Indian tax plan has MNCs running scared

[I]  RBI-industry meet: India Inc pitches for rate cut to prop up growth

[I]  India is becoming "laboratory" for American companies, says US expert

[I]  India can now soon start export of incense sticks to Europe

[I]  FY20 GDP pegged at 7.5%, says India Ratings

[I]  Niti Aayog bats for direct benefit transfer to farmers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  I-T dept holds back Rs 20,000 crore in tax refunds to private, PSU firms

[I]  M&As nearly doubled to $100 billion in 2018; highest in value after 2013

[I]  Do not want cryptocurrencies spreading like contagion: RBI tells SC

[I]  Sharp increase of 30-35% in silver import as demand show vibrancy

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10985;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2350;  DJIA Mini: 24415;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6810;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20674;  EUR-USD: 1.1395; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.65;  Gold (Spot): 1292

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 Jan 2019

GOD WANTS US TO REJOICE THE JOY IN GOD. WISHING A REJOICING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Jan 2019

 

Optimism is waning among U.S. businesses as they grapple with a volatile stock market, rising borrowing costs, and concerns about trade and the government shutdown, according to a new Federal Reserve report. The Federal Reserve has linked rising student debt to a drop in homeownership among young Americans and the flight of college graduates from rural areas, two big shifts that have helped reshape the U.S. economy. U.S. retail sales went gangbusters at the end of 2018, but that momentum could be hard to maintain as consumers deal with higher interest rates and confidence-eroding factors such as the government shutdown and a volatile stock market. Bank Indonesia will likely keep its interest rate unchanged on Thursday amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow down its tightening pace this year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Government shutdown begins to harm US economy

[I]  Carmakers face cuts and gloom as China sales drop

[I]  Kenya siege ends with assailants ‘eliminated’

[I]  Foreign governments divided over Congo election fraud

[I]  China injects record $84bn to boost economy

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's e-commerce curbs could hit online sales by 2022: PwC draft analysis

[I]  UK PM May seeks to end Brexit stalemate after winning confidence vote

[I]  Palladium prices hit record on supply deficit, gold firm on rate views

[I]  Bid to keep U.S. sanctions on Russia's Rusal fails in Senate

[I]  RBC lowers five-year fixed mortgage rate - The Globe and Mail

[I]  Euro zone economy faces longer slowdown, not recession - ECB's Draghi

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Is Winning Globalization’s Next Wave Without the Trade Wars

[I]  U.K. Home-Sale Expectations Dip to Two-Decade Low

[I]  May Faces Tough Talks With Opponents to Get a New Brexit Deal

[I]  China Quietly Cuts Borrowing Costs While Keeping Rates on Hold

[I]  JPMorgan Economists See Promise and Pitfalls in Alternative Data

[I]  Here's the Trillion-Dollar Global Bond Rebound in Two Charts

[I]  Yen Likely to Hit 80s in Next Recession, Ex-BOJ Official Says

[I]  Wall Street's Earnings Week Bonanza Eases Investors' 2018 Pain

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Says Student Debt Has Hurt the U.S. Housing Market

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Shows Concerns Mounting Among U.S. Businesses

[I]  Shutdown Is a ‘Hellacious Situation’ for Federal Government Contractors

[I]  After a Strong 2018 for Retail Sales, Caution Flags Pop Up

[I]  Business Worries About Climate Intensify. Actions to Fix it, Not So Much.

[I]  Bank Indonesia Likely to Keep Rate Steady on Thursday: Poll

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI eases ECB norms, lifts sector-wise limits

[I]  Coming soon: income-tax refunds in a day

[I]  Relief for start-ups: New procedure put in place for ‘angel tax’ exemption

[I]  Traders’ body urges govt not to make changes in FDI norms

[I]  PSBs may go slow on general hiring as they shift focus to specialists

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India-US upping trade ties like never before

[I]  Panel to discuss formation of local council for gem & jewellery

[I]  Bond slide reflects fiscal jitters over farm stimulus

[I]  International funds sour on India sovereign bonds, buy corporate debt

[I]  Working group suggests measures to achieve $5 trillion economy by 2025

[I]  GST panel to study uniform tax rate on lottery

[I]  Budget 2019: What is a budget plan, how is it prepared?

[I]  Cabinet approves Rs 3,600 cr for setting up 13 central varsities

[I]  Budget 2019: 5 key steps for preparation of the Union Budget

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Income Tax return processing time to reduce from 63 days to just 1 day

[I]  Companies can raise $750 mn yearly via external commercial borrowings: RBI

[I]  Why India has more women working on shop floors than in corporate offices

[I]  The curious case of rising health, education inflation in rural areas

[I]  Why India is losing out to neighbouring Bangladesh in textile exports

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10948;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1550;  DJIA Mini: 24083;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6771;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20382;  EUR-USD: 1.1395; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.86;  Gold (Spot): 1295

 

Regards, ARBIND

17 Jan 2019

SAY TO YOURSELF YOU ARE THERE ON PURPOSE IN HARMONY WITH CREATIVE FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE. WISHING AN ACCOMPLISHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Jan 2019

 

India's trade deficit narrowed to $13.08 billion in December, the lowest in 10 months, on a fall in gold imports but exports remained flat. The impasse is holding up scores of real-estate investors and developers who have been raising hundreds of millions of dollars to take advantage of what could be one of the most attractive tax breaks in years. The producer-price index, a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, decreased in December from a month earlier. The economic outlook for Europe and the world darkened after growth in Germany slowed sharply last year, hit by weaker exports to China and softer demand at home. The U.S. and many other large economies are set for a further slowdown this year, although there are signs of stabilization in China, according to leading indicators released by the OECD.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Theresa May vows to fight on for Brexit deal

[I]  Political clouds gather over German export machine

[I]  US development finance head in World Bank presidency mix

[I]  May’s cabinet fights over her Brexit plan

[I]  ECB lays out bad loan deadlines for eurozone banks

[I]  US companies fear fallout from government shutdown

[I]  Japan’s workforce to shrink by 13m in next 20 years

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's trade deficit narrows, but flat exports a concern

[I]  Oil prices dip on signs of economic slowdown, but OPEC-led cuts provide support

[I]  Japan's November machinery orders stall in worrying sign over business spending

[I]  U.S. oil prices edge down amid uncertain global economic outlook

[I]  USTR promises exclusion process for higher tariffs if China talks fail

[I]  Shutdown bites economy, U.S. Coast Guard, as talks to end impasse stall

[I]  EU leaders express dismay after May's Brexit defeat

[I]  Euro zone economy weaker than expected: Draghi

[I]  German economy posts weakest growth in five years

[I]  China signals more stimulus as slowdown deepens

[I]  ECB guidelines on bad debts hit Italy banks, irk Rome

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Cracks Start to Show for U.A.E. Banks as Bad Loans Set to Rise

[I]  Brexit Pushes Britain to Brink as Government Fights for Survival

[I]  Germany Looks to Homegrown Support to Navigate Turbulent Times

[I]  U.K. Finance Chief Seeks to Keep Business Fury From Boiling Over

[I]  Foreigners Return to Indonesian Stocks as Rupiah Advances

[I]  Here Are Five Volatility Charts Keeping Wall Street Up at Night

[I]  Equities Around the World Are Approaching Critical Inflection Points

[I]  Junk Bond Forecasts Are Quickly Going From Good to Great

[I]  Germany Looks to Homegrown Support to Navigate Turbulent Times

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Government Shutdown Stymies Opportunity-Zone Investors

[I]  Business Inflation Moderates in December

[I]  More Than Half of IRS Employees to Work During Tax-Filing Season

[I]  Germany’s Sharp Slowdown Fans Fears That China Woes Are Spreading

[I]  OECD Sees Further Slowdown in Global Economy This Year

[I]  China’s Exports Take a Surprising Fall in December

[I]  U.S. Auto Makers Hit Speed Bumps Abroad

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  WPI inflation at 8-month low

[I]  Retail inflation drops to 18-month low of 2.19% in Dec

[I]  Goals set under Saubhagya scheme have not been missed: Centre

[I]  British PM mounts last-ditch bid to win Brexit-deal backing

[I]  2018 a record year for PE/VC investments, exits and fund-raising: EY

[I]  Centre of Excellence for FinTech coming up in Chennai soon

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rupee slips further, settles below 71 level against dollar

[I]  Global CEOs worried about digital companies, customer loyalty in 2019: Protiviti report

[I]  Government looking at options to mitigate farm distress

[I]  India likely to overshoot fertiliser bill by $4.2 billion, banks may chip in

[I]  Fertiliser Min seeks add'l Rs 23,000 cr to clear Jan-Mar subsidy bill

[I]  India asks WTO members to resolve judges' appointment issue in appellate body

[I]  Government mulling import duty hike on iron ore

[I]  Exports growth slows to 0.34% in Dec, trade gap narrows

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Annual survey shows evidence of improving primary education in govt schools

[I]  Supreme Court reserves judgment on plea challenging validity of IBC

[I]  Car exports move into lower gear as more nations move towards protectionism

[I]  10% quota for general category poor from upcoming 2019-20 session

[I]  Govt panel wants quarterly job surveys scrapped, cites poor quality

[I]  Loan restructuring for small businesses welcome, but solve this malaise

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10925;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2800;  DJIA Mini: 24021;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6833;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20383;  EUR-USD: 1.1402; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.01;  Gold (Spot): 1290

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 Jan 2019