FEEL THE ORDERLY PATIENCE AND APPRECIATE ELEVATION. WISHING A TIDY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 04 Apr 2020

India steps up 'war' against Covid-19, military to deploy more resources and Indian officials warn of lockdown extensions on rising COVID-19 cases in South Asia. The head of the International Monetary Fund calls "humanity's darkest hour" as the pandemic has brought the global economy to a standstill and plunged the world into a recession that will be "way worse" than the global financial crisis a decade ago. U.S. banks will likely be allowed to keep paying dividends to shareholders, even as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to create a mountain of bad loans that could eventually weaken the lenders. Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimated India’s economic growth to slow down to 4 per cent in the current fiscal (2020-21). UK economy suffers sharpest contraction in services activity since records began while Global economy in sharpest reversal since Great Depression. Jobs wiped out as virus wrecks global economy while more than 10m register for unemployment benefits in two weeks in the US only. Indian Central Govt. asks States to ensure smooth harvesting and sowing operations while Fitch slashes India growth forecast to 30-year low of 2% for FY21.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UK economy suffers sharpest contraction in services activity since records began

[I]  Top of Form

Top of Form

Global economy in sharpest reversal since Great Depression 

[I]  IMF head warns downturn is steeper than financial crisis as data reveal job losses

[I]  Top of Form

Jobs wiped out as virus wrecks global economy

[I]  More than 10m Americans register for unemployment benefits in two weeks

[I]  Top of Form

Radical reforms are required to forge a society that will work for all

[I]  Top of Form

The eurozone’s ‘whatever it takes’ mantra has a problem

[I]  Top of Form

Emerging market debt burdens may be sorely understated

REUTERS

[I]  Indian officials warn of lockdown extensions as COVID-19 cases in South Asia near 6,000

[I]  OPEC+ debates biggest-ever oil cut, awaits U.S. efforts

[I]  IMF sees coronavirus-induced global downturn 'way worse' than financial crisisg

[I]  World Bank sees 'major global recession' due to pandemic

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  ECB Stimulus Keeps Investors Hungry for More Amid Bond Deluge

[I]  World’s Top Edible Oil at Risk as Malaysian State Shuts Estates

[I]  Saudi Arabia Says Putin’s Comments on OPEC+ Deal Are ‘Incorrect’

[I]  U.S. Energy Chief Tells Industry He Sees Oil Deal Within Days

[I]  Jobs Destroyed Worldwide as Coronavirus Sparks Recession

[I]  A Trio of Downgrades Spell Default Danger for Emerging Markets

[I]  Why Leveraged Loans, CLOs Feed Worries in Virus Slump

[I]  Fed Cuts Pace of QE Treasury Buying to $50 Billion Per Day

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Employers Cut 701,000 Jobs in March

[I]  The March Jobs Report in Charts

[I]  The Uncertain Path of the Coronavirus Pandemic Poses Its Own Risk

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic Deepens Labor Divide

[I]  Fed Unlikely to Order Big U.S. Banks to Suspend Dividends

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ADB lowers growth estimates for 2020-21 to 4%; forecasts recovery in 2021-22 to 6.2%

[I]  Supply chain shock, a negative for Indian auto component industry: ICRA

[I]  Above normal monsoon for India this year, says The Weather Company

[I]  Repatriation flights for US citizens stranded in India to start from April 4

[I]  Centre asks States to ensure smooth harvesting, sowing operations

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Jobs destroyed worldwide as Covid sparks recession

[I]  India's stay-at-home order is hurting Bharat

[I]  Forex reserve surges by $5.65 billion to $475.56 billion

[I]  RBI reduces trading hours for currency, debt markets

[I]  How’s India faring in global stimulus league?

[I]  Fitch slashes India growth forecast to 30-year low of 2% for FY21

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Covid-19, FII sell-off hit liquid funds hard; RBI's LTRO may calm investors

[I]  Relief measures announced by govt, RBI not enough, says India Inc

[I]  Job seekers, firms see 'pessimism' in market sentiment: RBI Survey

[I]  Bond market disappointed with borrowing plan of Centre, states

[I]  As India steps up 'war' against Covid-19, military to deploy more resources

Best Regards, ARBIND

04 Apr 2020 

THE TRIUMPH OF GOODNESS IS PLEASANTLY PLAYFUL. WISHING A JOVIAL DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 03 Apr 2020

 

Hundreds of millions of people globally work odd jobs in a vast informal economy, from India to Africa to South America. With quarantines keeping them from work, many fear homelessness and hunger. A record 6.6 million US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, marking a sharp downturn in the labor market whereas The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in February. Factories across the U.S., Asia and Europe cut output and jobs at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, a sign the global economy has entered a deep freeze as governments lock down their populations and as a result the UN forecasts global economy shrinking by almost one per cent in 2020. Germany lifts coronavirus ban on seasonal workers while Japan assures to roll out stimulus package next week as pandemic pain deepens whereas China pledges support to help foreign firms. ADB says that global cost of coronavirus could reach $4.1 trillion at the same time U.S. doubles small-business loans’ rate to 1%. Fed’s Mester Says Unemployment Rate in U.S. Could Reach 15%. Reuters poll finds Indian rupee's weakness to linger in near-term while manufacturing activity is at 4-month low, PMI at 51.8 and optimism also low. As fear of Covid-19 resulting in greater income inequality, trade unions seek labour minister's intervention to stop retrenchment of workers, salary cuts.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Global lay-offs surge as 6.6m Americans file jobless claims 

[I]  Oil surges as Trump spurs hopes for Russia-Saudi pact

[I]  Dividends: the sacrosanct payments under heavy fire 

[I]  Tragedy unfolds as deaths rise in Europe’s homes for elderly

[I]  Germany lifts coronavirus ban on seasonal workers

[I]  Israel struggles to contain virus in ultra-orthodox town

[I]  Australia faces ‘humanitarian disaster’ on board cruise ships 

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian rupee's coronavirus-induced weakness to linger in near-term: Reuters poll

[I]  Explainer: How the coronavirus crisis is affecting food supply

[I]  Australia's health system capable of managing coronavirus pandemic - prime minister

[I]  China pledges support to help foreign firms amid coronavirus pandemic

[I]  Japan to roll out stimulus package next week as pandemic pain deepens

[I]  UK’s garden industry faces ruin from coronavirus crisis

[I]  Airline industry braces for prolonged recovery from coronavirus crisis

[I]  Coronavirus fallout dents economic outlook for developing Asia - ADB

[I]  Japan service sector activity slumps most in a decade as virus impact spreads

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Doubles Small-Business Loans’ Rate to 1% After Lenders Balk

[I]  How to Read Friday’s U.S. Jobs Data and Beyond for Virus Impact

[I]  In Just Three Weeks, 10% of Workers in These States Are Jobless

[I]  Global Cost of Coronavirus Could Reach $4.1 Trillion, ADB Says

[I]  RBNZ Steps Up Pace of Bond Purchases Amid Flood of Issuance

[I]  Record Claims, Fed Balance Sheet Explodes, Broken World: Eco Day

[I]  India’s Place in Global Markets at Stake in Virus Response

[I]  Foreign Central Banks Sell $109 Billion of Treasuries in March

[I]  Fed’s Mester Says Unemployment Rate in U.S. Could Reach 15%

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Record 6.6 Million Americans Sought Jobless Benefits Last Week

[I]  Record Unemployment Claims Unlikely to Show Up in Friday’s March Jobs Report

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Narrowed in February as Coronavirus Spread

[I]  China’s New Coronavirus Policies Disrupt U.S. Air Cargo Operations

[I]  In Developing World, Coronavirus Slams Workers in Informal Economy

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Activity Contracts as Virus Hits Factories

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Covid-19 impact: ADB expects India’s economic growth to slow down to 4 per cent in FY21

[I]  Now, planes will fly medical equipment, essential drugs

[I]  Indians stranded abroad unlikely to come back before April 15

[I]  India's food security discussed at WTO amidst Covid-19 pandemic

[I]  Covid-19 impact: Global economy could shrink by almost 1 per cent in 2020, say UN

[I]  Covid-19 will result in greater income inequality

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  World Bank writes India $1 bn cheque as Covid's hold hits 1 mn

[I]  Need to ease lockdown in a staggered way: PM Modi

[I]  Dollar holds gains as investors seek safety in liquidity

[I]  Traders concerned over advance payments made to farmers

[I]  Direct tax collections post a shortfall of 12.2%

[I]  Exporters seek nod to restart ops with 50% staff, essential tag

[I]  Manufacturing activity at 4-month low, PMI at 51.8, optimism low

[I]  Trade unions seek labour minister's intervention to stop retrenchment of workers, salary cuts

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Cities locked out for Covid-19, struggle in villages of another magnitude

[I]  India gears up for rapid virus testing as rising hotspots ring alarm bells

[I]  Silver lining for OMCs: Low crude oil prices signal structural gains

[I]  Women Jan Dhan account holders to get cash benefits in a staggered manner

[I]  PSBs rescue pvt peers as states pull out deposits after RBI cut rates

[I]  ETFs liquidate at quickest pace since 2017 as coronavirus roils markets

 

MARKETS (10:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8137;  USDINR DGCX: 76.8000;  DJIA Mini: 20995;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5411;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 17740;  EUR-USD: 1.0839; Crude Oil (WTI): 23.83;  Gold (Spot): 1613

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 Apr 2020

THE JOY OF CELEBRATION IS INTERNAL AND EXTRAORDINARY. WISHING A FESTIVE DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 02 Apr 2020

 

The same stimulus that rich countries lean on could worsen poor economies. India's labourers and waste pickers - most of them homeless or too poor to afford a meal - are among the hardest hit by three-week nationwide lockdown while Indian Society of Labour Economics urges govt to give cash transfers, free ration to informal worker household. Four new states imposed sweeping stay-at-home directives putting over 80% of Americans under lockdown. Factories across the U.S., Asia and Europe cut output and jobs at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, a sign the global economy has entered a deep freeze as governments lock down their populations. The new pandemic is amplifying gains for businesses that cater to customers online, while businesses reliant on more traditional models fight for survival. Chinese factory activity expanded in March, following sharp contractions in January and February, but sluggish demand damped hopes for a speedy recovery. European factory output plummets while developing countries scramble for funds to stave off virus impact whereas Job losses in Europe and US hit financial crisis level. BlackRock expects that the world economy could contract by 11% in first half 2020. Fitch expects that Indian fiscal deficit may shoot to 6.2% although Govt sticks to BE to borrow Rs 4.88 lakh cr in H1FY21. ICRA says downgraded Rs 7-trn debt as credit quality of Indian firms worsened while MCA gives ‘deactivated’ DINs an opportunity to regularise without fee.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Global shares tumble after dire warnings on virus toll

[I]  Landlords and tenants feel the pain as coronavirus hits rents

[I]  France proposes EU coronavirus rescue fund

[I]  Developing countries scramble for funds to stave off virus impact

[I]  Argentina postpones debt restructuring deadline

[I]  European factory output plummets as coronavirus shutdown bites

[I]  Job losses in Europe and US hit financial crisis level

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's homeless stranded by coronavirus lockdown

[I]  Australia PM Morrison announces $973 million package for childcare sector

[I]  No safety net for millions in black economy amid Europe's lockdown

[I]  Most Americans huddle indoors as coronavirus deaths keep spiking

[I]  Factory activity plunges as coronavirus shock deepens

[I]  World economy could contract by 11% in first half 2020 - BlackRock managing director

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump’s Meeting With Drillers Couldn’t Give Oil Futures a Boost

[I]  The Same Stimulus That Rich Countries Lean On Could Worsen Poor Economies

[I]  Shipping U.S. Oil to China Now Costs Half as Much as the Cargo

[I]  Sharp Slowdown Seen in Asia IPO Deals with Stocks in Bear Market

[I]  V, L or ‘Nike Swoosh’? Economists Debate Shape of Global Recovery

[I]  RBNZ Urged to Come Out ‘All Guns Blazing’ on QE to Cut Rates

[I]  Next Stop Financial Crisis, Dire Trump, Japan Reinvents: Eco Day

[I]  China-Focused Hedge Funds Risk a Wave of Redemptions

[I]  Big Banks Get Fed Blessing to Extend Leverage

[I]  Japan Looks to Reinvent Its Cash Handouts for Better Results

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Activity Contracts as Virus Hits Factories

[I]  Pandemic Widens Divide Between Online, Traditional Businesses

[I]  Fed Temporarily Eases Capital Requirements for Big Banks

[I]  Treasury Department Selects Wall Street Banks to Advise on Airline Aid

[I]  Who’s Hiring and Who’s Firing

[I]  Transcript: WSJ Interview With Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren

[I]  Workers Return to China’s Factories, but Coronavirus Hurts Global Demand

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  At ₹97,597 cr, GST mop-up dips 8% in March

[I]  India’s Budget under strain on Day One of the new fiscal year

[I]  Lockdown: Passengers can book train, air tickets from April 15 onward

[I]  Fiscal deficit may shoot to 6.2%: Fitch

[I]  MCA gives ‘deactivated’ DINs an opportunity to regularise without fee

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How do we keep paying salaries: Modi gets a Covid SOS

[I]  India's sugar production declines 22 pc to 233 lakh tonnes

[I]  India uses WTO peace clause for higher rice sops

[I]  Govt sticks to BE to borrow Rs 4.88 lakh cr in H1FY21

[I]  Indian Society of Labour Economics urges govt to give cash transfers, free ration to informal worker household

[I]  RBI announces more measures to deal with economic fallout of COVID-19

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Coronavirus lockdown: Mumbai's 191 'containment' zones under lens

[I]  Private hospitals gearing up to fight coronavirus battle as cases rise

[I]  Lockdown crushes Motown: Sales of top auto makers decline 64% in March

[I]  Firms looking at time, cost relief while invoking force majeure

[I]  Downgraded Rs 7-trn debt as credit quality of Indian firms worsened: ICRA

[I]  The show must stream on: Media firms ensure connectivity in lockdown

[I]  Direct tax mop-up falls short by record Rs 1.75 trn of revised estimates

[I]  Centre unveils plan to deal with 'psycho-social issues' of migrant workers

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8143;  USDINR DGCX: 77.3625;  DJIA Mini: 21050;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5427;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 17980;  EUR-USD: 1.0938; Crude Oil (WTI): 21.24;  Gold (Spot): 1584

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Apr 2020