THIS WEEKEND, AWAKE AND LIVE IN A CONSTANT AMAZEMENT OF LIFE

Macro Economic News 07 Apr 2018

The rapidly escalating trade conflict with China has upended the prevailing economic dynamic of falling unemployment and faster growth, leaving policymakers and investors scrambling to figure out the way forward.

Financial markets fell Friday morning after President Trump’s latest salvo against China, then tumbled further after Mr. Powell indicated that the Fed saw no imminent need to adjust its outlook. The president acknowledged that the trade friction could take a toll. “I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain, but we’re going to have a much stronger country when we’re finished.”

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US imposes toughest Russian sanctions to date

[I]  Fed chair takes goldilocks approach in first speech

[I]  Russian regulator moves to ban messaging app Telegram

[I]  US wage growth picks up even as job growth slows

 

REUTERS

[I]  Cryptocurrencies hit hard after RBI clampdown

[I]  No breakthrough at NAFTA talks, U.S. timeline could be in doubt

[I]  Trump, UAE leader push for unity in Gulf as dispute drags on

[I]  China trade dispute could slam U.S. retailers

[I]  Trump threatens more China tariffs, Beijing ready to hit back

[I]  Trade war or not, U.S. cotton exports set for banner year

[I]  Fed chair vague on trade risks; his next No. 2, anything but

[I]  Analysis: 'We can't just trust' - The thinking behind Trump's get-tough approach to China

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Volatility Returns to Agriculture Markets Whipsawed by Trade

[I]  Trump Trade Row Flips Risk, Turning Emerging Markets Into Havens

[I]  U.S.-China Tensions Simmer While Both Say There’s No Trade War

[I]  Kudlow Says U.S. and China Are Holding ‘Back-Channel’ Trade Talks

[I]  Chinese Bond Funds Have the Best Returns, But No One Cares

[I]  Canada Must Do More to Ensure Competitive Edge, RBC CEO Says

[I]  Construction Boom Drives Canadian Jobs Gain Beyond Expectations

[I]  Trump Warns U.S. Investors of ‘a Little Pain’ in Trade Standoff

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Labor Market Shows Resilience Despite Volatile Backdrop

[I]  Analysis: Jobs Report Should Keep Fed on Course for Gradual Rate Rises

[I]  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Sees ‘Potential’ of Trade War

[I]  China Set to Strike Back ‘Forcefully’ at Threatened New U.S. Tariffs

[I]  Powell Says Fed’s Gradual Rate Increases Should Keep Economy Strong

[I]  U.S. Targets Allies of Putin in Latest Round of Sanctions

[I]  Europe’s Slowing Economy Poses Challenge for ECB

[I]  ECB to Challenge Latvia Over Rimsevics Ban

[I]  Real Time Economics: Trump Escalates on Trade | China Promises Counterattack | U.S. Jobs Report

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt websites face major outage; hacking ruled out

[I]  This price tracker tells farmers if the govt walks the talk on MSPs

[I]  Red tape snarls Rs. 5,000 crore refund for exporters

[I]  With surplus rain so far, peninsula proves outlier

[I]  Why macroeconomic data see several rounds of revisions

[I]  World Bank opens Rs. 2,700-cr tap for Maharashtra

[I]  Experts, leaders slam AP govt’s model for the new capital

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Will succession planning be the next big challenge for pvt banks?

[I]  5G technology can bring a paradigm shift to India's development. Here's a lowdown

[I]  Forex reserve hits lifetime high of $424.36 billion

[I]  RBI bans Bitcoin and other virtual currencies, investors concerned for tax dues

[I]  How RBI sold govt bonds amid exuberance?

[I]  Big rush to buy bonds as RBI cuts inflation forecast

[I]  Indian firms should leverage on technologies, AI to leapfrog economy: NITI Aayog CEO

[I]  Indian biz leaders not digital ready: Report

[I]  Export of oilmeals drops by 56% during March 2018

[I]  India's companies aren't as optimistic as its central bank

[I]  Niti Aayog plans National Data & Analytics Platform

[I]  Income tax department wants to know a little bit more about you

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI increases bond investment limit for foreign portfolio investors

[I]  Industry and tax experts seek one tax on capital gains in listed funds

[I]  RBI crackdown on cryptocurrencies: Exchanges, investors take a hard knock

[I]  RBI increases foreign flow limit in bonds by over Rs 1 trillion for FY19

[I]  Sugar prices lowest in 27 months; lack of demand to reduce rates further

[I]  Sebi to take action against 14,720 entities for carrying non-genuine trades

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Apr 2018

GRATEFUL FOR ALL THE WONDERFUL THINGS WE HAVE AND FOR THOSE THAT YET TO COME

Macro Economic News 06 Apr 2018

Trump calls for additional trade tariffs against China, while India’s central bank explores the possibility of creating its own digital currency. India’s central bank is exploring the creation of a digital currency even as it escalates a crackdown on existing instruments such as bitcoin. However, it also said it is banning banks and other regulated entities from providing services to users, holders and traders of cryptocurrencies.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump threatens $100bn in additional Chinese tariffs

[I]  Dimon warns investors on risk of ‘drastic action’ by Federal Reserve

[I]  Shipping groups boost Ireland-EU routes ahead of Brexit

[I]  FCA reveals strict new rules for asset managers

[I]  Megadeal puts Brazil back on M&A bankers’ radar

[I]  The US should know that China believes in fair trade too

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI holds rates; stocks rally on lower inflation call

[I]  RBI chief still wary of upside risks to inflation

[I]  RBI says to keep liquidity in "moderate surplus mode" in April-September

[I]  RBI defers new accounting rules for banks cheering investors

[I]  Japan household spending posts biggest drop in nearly a year as wages fall

[I]  Trade war or not, weak dollar trades here to stay: Reuters Poll

[I]  ECB, BoE unlikely to go off-piste after snow-induced slowdown

[I]  Pakistan declares tax amnesty to broaden income revenue base

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. Retailers Post Worst Sales Slump Since Financial Crisis

[I]  China Vows to Defend Its Interests as Trump Eyes $100 Billion Tariff Proposal

[I]  Trump Escalates Trade Tensions With Call for New China Tariffs

[I]  After Targeting U.S. Farmers, China Signals It Can Strike Shale

[I]  What Happened in the World Economy This Week and What It Means

[I]  Asia’s Dollar Bonds Mark Worst First Quarter Since 1997

[I]  Bond Party Endures in India as Central Bank Takes a Dovish Turn

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  The Future of America’s Economy Looks a Lot Like Elkhart, Indiana

[I]  Trade Deficit Hits Near Decade High, Raising Specter of Twin Deficits

[I]  Leverage Will Determine if China or the U.S. Come Out on Top in Trade Conflict

[I]  The unemployment rate could reach a new low, but the pace of hiring is expected to cool.

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week

[I]  Tariff Showdown Shifts to Intense Negotiation Period

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Showdown | Jobs Day Preview | Tech Backlash

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI holds repo rate on inflation fears

[I]  I-T Dept panel to look into evasion risks posed by ‘fleeing’ super rich

[I]  1 billion tonne coal output: Centre to relax deadline

[I]  Assets Under Management of mutual funds swell 26% to Rs. 23 lakh-crore in FY18

[I]  SEBI crackdown on F&O trades promises windfall gains to Centre

[I]  RBI pegs FY19 growth rate at 7.4%; lowers inflation forecast

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Bank treasury to get more flexibility in managing surplus cash

[I]  Tighter reporting of remittances under LRS to prevent abuse

[I]  US says India's customs, import schemes complex

[I]  US-China trade war could hit global economic recovery

[I]  Services sector in expansion zone; hiring up: Survey

[I]  RBI lowers inflation target for first half of FY19 to 4.7-5.1 per cent

[I]  Services PMI back on growth track in March; job-creation at 7-yr high

[I]  Government set up e-commerce think tank to encourage local players

[I]  Now RBI says NPA pile preventing better policy transmission

[I]  Income tax department forms committee to look into tax risk of super-rich leaving India

[I]  RBI dumps GVA model, switches back to GDP to measure economy

[I]  Government commissions mechanism to address taxpayers' grievances

[I]  Comprehensive integrated plan on logistics on anvil: Commerce Secretary

[I]  RBI maintains status quo, keeps repo rate unchanged at 6%

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Start-up investors may be exempt from 'angel tax'

[I]  CPI inflation expected to be at 4.3% in Q4 of FY19

[I]  Civil aviation ministry proposes steep rise in compensation for flyers

[I]  Draft Direct Tax Code to be submitted to govt, placed in public domain soon

[I]  RBI monetary policy review: Bad loans limit banks from passing on rate cuts

[I]  Social media use has troubling parallels with addictive drugs: Researchers

 

MARKETS (07:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10323;  USDINR DGCX: 64.9700;  DJIA Mini: 24110;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7069;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21555;  EUR-USD: 1.2257; Crude Oil (WTI): 63.08;  Gold (Spot): 1332

Best Regards, ARBIND

06 Apr 2018

WISHING A HARMONIOUS DAY. UNIVERSE IS IN HARMONY, ALWAYS.

Macro Economic News 05 Apr 2018

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 1.4 percent in March, in line with economist expectations, further bolstering arguments for the ECB to phase out stimulus. Unemployment in the common-currency zone dropped to 8.5 percent in February, a nine-year low.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US-China trade brinkmanship sends global markets reeling

[I]  China tariff threat deals another blow to US farmers

[I]  Italy’s populist revolt puts pension reform at risk

[I]  Global businesses raise hopes of US-China trade compromise

[I]  Mixed data mean ECB will be slow to withdraw stimulus

[I]  UK looks to former colonies to secure post-Brexit future

[I]  Trump tariffs expected to hurt US businesses in China

[I]  Trump’s trade war could hit hardest in his political heartland

[I]  Latvia banking scandal leaves Europe’s regulators red-faced

 

REUTERS

[I]  Trade war: China retaliates

[I]  India to offer $3-4 billion development plan for giant Iran gas field: sources

[I]  Oil gains on surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories

[I]  Analysis: Japan braces for Trump assault on trade, yen policy as summit looms

[I]  Easter price push keeps ECB on track for ending stimulus

[I]  As Myanmar economy rebounds, sanctions risk gives some investors pause: IMF

[I]  China to develop Bangladesh industrial zone as part of South Asia push

[I]  Developing nations to study ways to dim sunshine, slow warming

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hollywood Reaps Dividends From Saudi Prince's U.S. Goodwill Tour

[I]  Gender Pay Gap Highlights U.K. Economy's ‘Untapped Potential’

[I]  Former Civil War Leader Wins Tight Presidential Race in Sierra Leone

[I]  Saudi Arabia Is About to Have Its First Ever DJ Party

[I]  U.S. and China Push Time-to-Talk Message as Trade Tensions Rise

[I]  Rate Hike in Japan Is Likely Within a Year: Former BOJ Executive

[I]  South Korea Worries It Will Be a Victim of China-U.S. Trade War

[I]  U.S. Farmers Speak: ‘Let’s Just Hope This Is a War of Words’

[I]  Trade Fight Expected to Add Risk But Not Sink the U.S. Economy

[I]  Fed Officials Warn That Tariff Brawl Clouds Interest-Rate Path  

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Tariff Showdown Shifts to Intense Negotiation Period

[I]  China Threatens U.S. Cars, Planes, Soy in Response to Trump

[I]  U.S. Sets Sweeping Tariffs on China

[I]  The Political Backlash Against Tech: Good, Bad and Ugly

[I]  Growth Slowed Across Most of U.S. Economy in March

[I]  Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

[I]  Tariffs Unlikely to Bring Back Many U.S. Blue-Collar Jobs, Study Finds

[I]  Real Time Economics: Markets Rattled | U.S. Factories Humming | Trade’s Winners and Losers

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI cuts provisioning norm for advances to large accounts now before NCLT

[I]  Insolvency law: IBBI chief puts India Inc’s directors on notice

[I]  Competition Commission to be ‘right-sized’

[I]  Treat home buyers as ‘financial creditors’, suggests Insolvency Law Committee

[I]  Centre eyes 10 GW of wind power generation by 2022

[I]  MFs add 32 lakh new investors in a year

[I]  Coffee exports hit a new record; up 12% near 4 lakh tonnes in 2017-18

[I]  India may import1.5 mt wheat in 2018-19: USDA report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India may have something good in the ongoing US-China tariff war

[I]  Banks seek wind up of firms owing $5.8 billion

[I]  India's monsoon rains seen at average levels in 2018: Skymet

[I]  NPA mess: PSU banks wrote off loans worth Rs 2.42 lakh cr in 3 years

[I]  India Ratings ups India’s FY19 GDP growth to 7.4%, cautions on bank NPAs

[I]  Loan write-offs decline to 13 per cent of gross NPAs in FY17: RBI data

[I]  Trade deficit with India decreased in 2017; concerned over trade barriers: US

[I]  NITI submits draft Cabinet note on zero-emission vehicles

[I]  Can file transitional credit form by April 30: Fin Min

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India bags second position in crude steel production, output up by 3.4%

[I]  LoU ban to hit small & medium importers with higher funding costs: Report

[I]  Farmer support: Centre looking to spend Rs 200-250 bn on MSP procurement

[I]  Remittances by overseas Indians dropped by $8.5 billion: Govt

[I]  Cabinet approves reducing strength of CCI members to 3 for speedy approvals

[I]  Govt clarifies not all insolvency rebids may be prospective cases

[I]  Ind-Ra revises up growth forecast to 7.4% for FY19 on strong agri growth

[I]  RBI enjoys equal regulatory power over both private and public banks: Govt

[I]  Wheat prices fall below MSP of Rs 1,735 on fresh arrivals and weak quality

 

MARKETS (08:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10288;  USDINR DGCX: 65.1625;  DJIA Mini: 24359;  FTSE 100 Fut:  7052;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21668;  EUR-USD: 1.2279; Crude Oil (WTI): 63.65;  Gold (Spot): 1331

Best Regards, ARBIND

05 Apr 2018