YOU ARE LOVED MORE THAN YOU WILL EVER KNOW. CELEBRATE THE LIFE THIS WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 20 Jul 2019

 

Rich are getting richer at rates seen in pre-independence India. Interestingly, in the three decades since India liberalised, the wealthy have got wealthier at a faster rate. Not just India, wealth seems to be accumulating faster than economic growth everywhere — China, US, Europe, Japan and Russia — irrespective of their stages of development. India advises state govts to exempt EVs from permit requirements. India's government is in talks with foreign lenders to provide as much as $14.5 billion in credit to millions of its small firms. Indian farmers planted an array of summer-sown crops on 56.7 million hectares, down 6.9% year on year. Federal Reserve officials signalled they are ready to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at their coming meeting, while indicating the potential for additional reductions because they are worried about a slowdown in global growth, an increase in trade-policy uncertainty and a pullback in inflation. American households remained relatively confident about the economy in early July, and their expectations for longer-run inflation firmed. Highly leveraged mortgages back at pre-crisis peak.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Israeli group’s spyware ‘has keys to Big Tech’s cloud’

[I]  Fed comes under fire over rate confusion

[I]  UK’s yacht builders ride growing wave of super-rich customers

[I]  Global factories feel the fallout of trade war

[I]  Europe risks geopolitical irrelevance

[I]  Malta’s tax incentives lead to a building boom

[I]  Landmark pension ruling to apply to all UK public sector schemes

[I]  Highly leveraged mortgages back at pre-crisis peak

 

REUTERS

[I]  Government seeks to tap foreign lenders for loans to small firms - sources

[I]  Iran says it seized British tanker, denies U.S. brought down drone

[I]  U.S. authorizes deployment of troops, resources to Saudi Arabia

[I]  U.S. has 'bigger problems' than plastic straws - Trump

[I]  India's summer crop planting down nearly 7%: government data

[I]  Global Economy: Will ECB walk or just talk as rate circus comes to Europe?

[I]  ECB plans to restart government bond purchases by November: Spiegel

[I]  India to touch renewable energy capacity of 260 GW by 2024: government secretary

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed's Eric Rosengren Signals His Opposition to an Interest-Rate Cut

[I]  Euro May Weather a Dovish ECB Amid Policy Divergence Bets

[I]  Debt-Ceiling Impasse Draws Bond Traders' Focus as Fed Goes Quiet

[I]  Hedge Funds Set Up for Mideast Standoff as Bullish Oil Bets Grow

[I]  Iron Ore Market Looks to Top Miner for Clues on End to Shortages

[I]  Canadian Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop on Lower Food & Booze

[I]  Italian Bond Rally Hits a Hurdle as Election Uncertainty Grows

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Signal Quarter-Point Rate Cut Likely at July Meeting

[I]  Why Is Wall Street So Sold on the 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut?

[I]  Labor Secretary Pick Scalia Has Long Fought Rules Aimed at Business

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Says He’d ‘Love’ to Become Fed Chairman

[I]  Boston Fed’s Rosengren Says Recent Economic Developments Have Been Positive

[I]  Real Time Economics: The Fed’s Next Cut, Lagarde’s Tall Task and Energy’s Step Back

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt in talks with foreign lenders to provide loans to MSMEs: Sources

[I]  India needs to double refining capacity despite electric vehicles push: Pradhan

[I]  India makes strong case at WTO for continuing fisheries subsidies

[I]  China promises greater market access to India if it improves ...

[I]  FinMin expands ambit of intermediary services

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How quickly are India's rich getting richer?

[I]  Government's e-car subsidy isn't for everyone

[I]  As defaults rise, China bond markets are pricing risks better

[I]  Rhinos come to bond market, other species may follow

[I]  Negative-yield ‘quicksand’ risks trapping even the US bond market

[I]  Niti Aayog invites bids for development of National Data and Analytics Platform

[I]  Govt to set up Credit Guarantee Enhancement Corporation with Rs 20K-Cr capital

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Start-ups laud Finance Bill amendments, penalty on flouting angel tax norms

[I]  India's inventory of unsold luxury homes falls 12% to 43,000 units in Q1

[I]  Centre advises state govts to exempt EVs from permit requirements

[I]  Delhi govt's EV target for 2024: 25% of new vehicles to be electric

[I]  Govt tightens anti-money laundering laws, widens ambit of proceeds of crime

[I]  Govt may seek up to $14.5-bn credit from foreign lenders for MSMEs: Report

[I]  Subsidy on EVs only for commercial vehicles, not personal usage: Govt

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
20 Jul 2019

MAGICAL NEW OPPORTUNITIES ARE OPENING UP. CHEER UP ITS FRIDAY TODAY. BEST WISHES.

Macro Economic News 19 Jul 2019

 

June 2019 was the hottest in 140 years, setting a global record. The Securities and Exchange Board of India proposed ramping up disclosure for auditors of listed companies, after a number of firms abruptly resigned from audit assignments without citing sufficient reasons, leaving investors in the dark. Central banks in Asia and South Africa lowered their interest rates, joining a global easing bandwagon that started earlier this year in the Asia-Pacific region and is expected to include the U.S. and Europe within weeks. Rate cut bets and rallying equity and bond markets are feeding into a gradual loosening of financial market conditions that could potentially send world growth ticking higher by the end of the year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Kremlin throws weight behind EU effort to boost Iran trade

[I]  Turkey’s embrace of Russia leaves US out in cold

[I]  Algeria’s military ruler ramps up crackdown

[I]  Johnson suffers setback to forcing through no-deal Brexit

[I]  Poland’s opposition parties fail to strike election pact

[I]  French to work for longer under pension reform plan

[I]  G7 agrees urgent reform is needed on tax rules

 

REUTERS

[I]  SEBI proposes tighter disclosure for auditors

[I]  Chance of no-deal Brexit rises as Johnson leads Hunt - Reuters poll

[I]  South Korea urges Japan to accept request for talks over export controls

[I]  Japan's June core inflation near two-year low, adds pressure on BOJ

[I]  No need for further BOJ easing, most Japan firms say - Reuters poll

[I]  Take it easy: central bank U-turns loosen financial conditions

[I]  Bulging fuel stocks put spotlight on slack oil consumption

[I]  June 2019 was the hottest on record across the globe: NOAA

[I]  Brazil deforestation soars, threatening EU trade deal

[I]  G7 urges tough Libra regulation, agrees to tax digital giants

[I]  India's consumer goods growth slows as rural demand cools: Nielsen

[I]  Pakistan price squeeze hits middle class as well as poor

[I]  U.S.-China officials discuss trade; Mnuchin eyes possible in-person talks

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Job Growth Looks Set to Power Record Back-to-School Spending

[I]  Muni-Bond End Run Around Trump Tax Law May Pick Up as Rates Fall

[I]  Fed Officials See Prudence of Acting Early to Sustain Growth

[I]  Japan Inflation Hits 2-Year Low as BOJ Faces Pressure to Act

[I]  Venezuela’s Black Market Comeback Hints at Looming Devaluation

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  What Christine Lagarde Brings to the ECB: Flexibility

[I]  Trump to Nominate Eugene Scalia to Serve as Labor Secretary

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rise

[I]  July Data Throw Size of Expected Fed Rate Cut Into Doubt

[I]  New York Fed Says Williams Wasn’t Sending Specific Policy Signal in Speech

[I]  House Approves Bill That Would More Than Double Minimum Wage to $15

[I]  Fed's Williams: Central Bank Must Act Quickly on Signs of Distress

[I]  Global Easing Cycle Gains Momentum as Central Banks Cut Rates

[I]  Real Time Economics: China’s Economy, Trade Talks and Trouble in the Housing Market

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI raises the exit barrier for auditors

[I]  Sitharaman: No tweaks in super-rich surcharge on FPIs

[I]  What industry can learn from nature

[I]  School education needs a massive upgrade

[I]  60% of farmers remain out of PM Kisan scheme

[I]  Monsoon to stay active over south-west coast

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why India needn't worry about the 'middle-income trap'

[I]  Government likely to move RTI Amendment bill

[I]  CMs panel to release a time-bound roadmap for implementation of agri reforms

[I]  India's monsoon rains below average in past week, raising crop worries

[I]  Bank credit, deposit growth manage to remain in double- digits

[I]  India's current account balance deficit grew to $68bn in 2018-19: IMF

[I]  ADB trims FY20 growth forecast to 7% from 7.2%

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Railways to invite PE, pension funds for Rs 1-trillion station revamp plan

[I]  17% of corporate social responsibility fund unspent among listed companies

[I]  Draft labelling regulations for packaged food and beverages divide industry

[I]  Supply shortage raises veggie prices in wholesale markets in Mumbai, Delhi

[I]  Govt's plan to sell its first foreign sovereign bonds a risky money idea?

[I]  A five-passenger electric airplanes start to take off: All you need to know

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11638;  USDINR DGCX: 68.6850;  DJIA Mini: 27319;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7455;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21320;  EUR-USD: 1.1263; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.33;  Gold (Spot): 1443

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
19 Jul 2019

WORLD IS LOOKING UP TO YOU - TO EMBRACE AND GRACE. WISHING AN ELEGANT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 18 Jul 2019

 

Indian Government to prepare national data on unorganised sector and floats idea for Aadhaar-like database for mapping citizen health. New data showing the toll that trade tensions are taking on China’s economy are merely a symptom of a more serious malaise: The country’s state-led growth model is running out of gas. American businesses see economic activity expanding at a modest pace despite lingering fears over trade. Progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal has stalled while the Trump administration determines how to address Beijing’s demands that it ease restrictions on Huawei Technologies. Home building in the U.S. declined in June, a fresh sign of weakness in the housing market. Young people struggle in eurozone’s two-tier labour market. UK's fiscal watchdog warns of recession in 2020 in case of 'no-deal' Brexit. BOE Policy Makers' Case for Rate Hikes Gets Thin. Japan Exports Fall a Seventh Straight Month Amid Global Slowdown.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  France and US at loggerheads over levy on Big Tech

[I]  India’s health records plan raises privacy worries

[I]  Zuma on brink of inquiry walkout

[I]  European capitals cool on Carney in IMF race

[I]  Young people struggle in eurozone’s two-tier labour market

[I]  Australian bank regulator to gain powers after critical review

[I]  China’s surplus with trading partners falls into balance

[I]  Lower US interest rates squeeze bank lending margins

[I]  US rail freight declines signal economic weakness

 

REUTERS

[I]  India aims to expel all illegal migrants, Amit Shah says

[I]  Millions stranded in India as early monsoon downpours bring flood havoc

[I]  Sliding Japan exports, manufacturing gloom heighten economic risks

[I]  Japan manufacturers' mood hits three-year low - Reuters Tankan

[I]  ECB to cut rates in September, QE 2.0 still on the cards - Reuters poll

[I]  Bank of England expects balance sheet to halve when QE reversed

[I]  UK's fiscal watchdog to warn of recession in 2020 in case of 'no-deal' Brexit - The Times

[I]  U.S. House rejects Saudi weapons sales; Trump to veto

[I]  U.S. House votes to set aside impeachment resolution against Trump

[I]  U.S. housing market stuck in a rut even as mortgage rates fall

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Japan Exports Fall a Seventh Straight Month Amid Global Slowdown

[I]  Yield-Hungry Foreigners Snap Up Indian Bonds. Local Banks Sell

[I]  Investors Gorge on African Bonds, But They’re Dodging Stocks

[I]  BOE Policy Makers' Case for Rate Hikes Gets Thin

[I]  Indonesia Is Poised for Its First Rate Cut in Two Years

[I]  Risk Is Ramping Up in Property CLOs Revived After the Crisis

[I]  Almost 40% of U.S. Homes Are ‘Free and Clear’ of a Mortgage

[I]  Bonds Risk Summer Pain Trade as Inflation Hedging Surges

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

[I]  Fed’s Beige Book Reports Modest Growth, Trade Worries

[I]  U.S.-China Talks Stuck in Rut Over Huawei

[I]  Front-Runner List to Lead IMF Narrows to Eurozone Candidates

[I]  U.S. Housing Starts Fell in June

[I]  Pelosi Says Deal on Debt Ceiling, Spending Levels Needed by Friday

[I]  Fed’s George Suggests She’s Not Ready to Cut Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Centre steps in to put IBC cases back on track

[I]  Jalan panel moots transfer of RBI’s surplus in tranches over 3-5 years

[I]  Bill to amend companies law to be re-introduced

[I]  India, eight others caution WTO against reforms that worsen imbalances

[I]  Steel, cement prices plunge amid economic slowdown

[I]  Dearth of IT talent biggest issue today: Nasscom

[I]  ‘Low’ forming over East India expected to bring heavy rain

[I]  Organic farming acreage rises to 27.7 lakh hectares

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India turns more welcoming for foreigners

[I]  IMF sees dangers from trade tensions, overvalued dollar

[I]  Govt may cap overseas borrowing at $5 billion this year

[I]  Bond market gets a licence to thrill

[I]  India and US bilateral trade at crossroads: Report

[I]  Transition to e-vehicles may take longer than 2030: TERI chief

[I]  No proposal to amend GPF rules to permit withdrawal for second house: Government

[I]  Government to prepare national data on unorganised sector

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Sebi chief questions Budget plan for transfer of surplus funds to govt

[I]  Govt clears changes to insolvency law; secured lenders to get preference

[I]  FMCG sector slows down due to lower consumption in rural market

[I]  Bullish govt bonds reflect slowdown in global and domestic economies

[I]  June-end foodgrain stocks hit new peaks, grain buffer 81% above norms

[I]  Economic Affairs Committee approves India's largest hydro-electric project

[I]  Should we reverse nationalisation of banks? 50 yrs later, the debate is on

[I]  Govt floats idea for Aadhaar-like database for mapping citizen health

[I]  Investors from Singapore and Cyprus may come under tax scrutiny in India

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11644;  USDINR DGCX: 68.8600;  DJIA Mini: 27145;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7447;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21150;  EUR-USD: 1.1234; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.66;  Gold (Spot): 1424

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 Jul 2019