WISHING THIS WEEKEND SPREADS SMILES AMIDST PLEASANT SHINE. HAPPY WEEKEND

Macro Economic News 06 Oct 2018

 

The unemployment rate fell in September to the lowest level since the Vietnam War while hiring cooled slightly, the latest signs of an extremely tight labor market. Falling U.S. government bond prices signal that investors are beginning to believe the Fed will follow through on its plan for gradual interest-rate increases. The U.S. trade deficit widened in August, as a strong domestic economy boosted Americans’ purchases of foreign automobiles, industrial supplies and petroleum. The Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in September, as a sharp rebound in part-time hiring nudged the unemployment rate down to 5.9%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US unemployment rate hits lowest level since 1969

[I]  Brazilians in search of security look to Jair Bolsonaro

[I]  Finance, the media and a catastrophic breakdown in trust

[I]  EU drafts tough contingency plans for no-deal Brexit

[I]  Italy builds budget plan on ambitious GDP forecasts

[I]  Suppliers buckle up for Brexit blow to logistics chain

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI surprises by leaving policy rate unchanged, rupee tumbles

[I]  Russia signs pact for six nuclear reactors on new site in India

[I]  India to keep buying Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions: sources

[I]  Exclusive: U.S. Commerce's Ross eyes anti-China 'poison pill' for new trade deals

[I]  A decade of U.S. economic sluggishness may have just snapped back to normal

[I]  U.S. actively considering waivers on Iran oil sanctions

[I]  India to keep buying Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions: sources

[I]  RBI says it's not targeting any exchange rate level for rupee

[I]  India gold discounts widen; Bangladesh launches trade policy

[I]  U.S. job growth cools; unemployment rate drops to 3.7 percent

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Investors Pull Back Their Wagers on Oil’s Rally

[I]  Hedge Funds Post Worst Third-Quarter Performance in Three Years

[I]  Bond Trader's $2.5 Million Wager Targets 10-Year Yield at 3.6%

[I]  These U.S. Industries Hired Most – and Least – in September

[I]  Saudi Crown Prince to Trump: We've Replaced All Iran's Lost Oil

[I]  Emerging-Market Bears Return as U.S. Yields Spike

[I]  Mexico Central Bank Nominee Sees Rate Cuts in 2019 as CPI Slows

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969

[I]  The September Jobs Report in 9 Charts

[I]  Interactive: The U.S. Unemployment Rate and Wartime

[I]  Bond Investors Catch Up With Fed’s Plans

[I]  U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in August

[I]  Canadian Job Growth Beats Estimates

[I]  A Retirement Wealth Gap Adds a New Indignity to Old Age

[I]  Myanmar’s Economy in Peril as EU Weighs Trade Punishment

[I]  Fed’s Bostic Not Ready to Call for Restrictive Monetary Policy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  E-tailers may burn $1 billion in cash during upcoming festival season

[I]  India’s cooling energy consumption to double by 2027, says report

[I]  Oil’s not so well in the global economy

[I]  PFRDA to review investment norms

[I]  Coming, home automation products that can learn from users’ behaviour

[I]  India’s oilmeal exports plunge 73 per cent in September

[I]  RBI highlights virtues of equity funding of long-term assets

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rupee breaches below 74-mark against US dollar for the first time

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $1.26 billion to $400.52 billion

[I]  Rate hike, OMOs, CRR cut? What RBI can do to lift rupee

[I]  Kharif production could likely decline due to erratic monsoon: Report

[I]  Indian farmed shrimp production may be down by 20% this year

[I]  FinMin kicks off Insurance Manthan

[I]  India, Russia for promoting trade in local currencies

[I]  Inflation target lowered, but risks remain

[I]  Private investments in infra plunge to 25% in FY18: Report

[I]  RBI lowers retail inflation projection to 3.9-4.5% for H2 FY19

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Rupee better than other emerging markets peers: RBI governor Urjit Patel

[I]  RBI keeps policy rates unchanged, shifts stance to 'calibrated tightening'

[I]  More financial pain in the offing for OMCs, upstream companies: CRISIL

[I]  Opaque currency regime may restrict rupee-renminbi trade mechanism

[I]  RBI plans voluntary retention route to attract long-term overseas money

[I]  Monetary policy review: Rate cut is off the table, says Urjit Patel

[I]  RBI to revise NBFC asset-liability norms over borrowing, lending mismatch

[I]  India to continue Iran oil imports post US sanctions, to pay in rupees

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

06 Oct 2018

TODAY DAY WOULD BRING HAPPINESS ALL AROUND. HAVE A WONDERFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Oct 2018

 

The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell, indicating Hurricane Florence likely had a fairly modest impact on the labor market. The Trump administration aims to step up trade talks with other countries, using its new pact with Canada and Mexico as a template for redefining rules on everything from foreign exchange and labor markets to how U.S. partners do business with China.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Global bond sell-off drags down stocks

[I]  Oil price rise puts Asian economies under pressure

[I]  Nomura looks to Paris as post-Brexit EU lending hub

[I]  Oil industry snubs EU effort to defy Trump sanctions on Iran 

[I]  Tusk hits back at Hunt over comparisons of EU with Soviet Union

[I]  Higher eurozone wages offer relief to Mario Draghi

[I]  US accuses former HK official of breaking Iran sanctions

[I]  IMF’s Christine Lagarde calls for revamp of Japan’s Abenomics

 

REUTERS

[I]  Slackening demand drags India services activity to four-month low in Sept

[I]  Rising U.S. bond yields hit global markets, Asian stocks fragile

[I]  Japan household spending posts biggest rise in three years, signals steady recovery

[I]  Strong quake hits Japan's northern island, no tsunami danger

[I]  Oil prices rise ahead of November U.S. sanctions against Iran crude exports

[I]  RBI seen raising rates again as rupee slide accelerates

[I]  Fed survey points to tighter borrowing terms if yield curve inverts

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Poised for Fourth Weekly Gain as Global Supply Concerns Rise

[I]  U.K. Starting Salaries Pick Up as Companies See Worker Shortage

[I]  Trump Report Warns Military at Risk as Industry Relies on China

[I]  An Early Warning Sign for the World's Priciest Homes Is Flashing Sell

[I]  Inflation Is the Missing Piece From Treasury Yields, Fed Liftoff

[I]  Hong Kong's Economy Gets Stuck Between U.S.-China Trade War

[I]  India Funds Are Betting on an Interest-Rate Rise

[I]  American Debt Pile, Italy's China Pivot, RBNZ's Emails: Eco Day

[I]  U.S. Government Interest Payments Just Exceeded Belgium's Output

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Jobless Claims Resilient in Face of Storm

[I]  Trump Aims to Model New Trade Deals on Revised Nafta

[I]  Kudlow Says Trump Not Trying to Exert Pressure on Fed

[I]  Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of Economic Circumstances’

[I]  Services-Sector Activity Hits Record High. Thank Tariffs, Local Governments

[I]  Nafta Rewrite Eases Threat of Auto Tariffs on Economy

[I]  Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020

[I]  Powerful Forces Seen Restraining U.S. Pay Growth

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Gross direct tax collection grows 16.7% to Rs. 5.47 lakh crore in April-September

[I]  India, Russia to sign economic agreements, discuss rupee-rouble payment mechanism

[I]  To cut imports, Ministries to come up with sectoral plans to increase production

[I]  Call for building awareness, understanding of proposed Data Protection law

[I]  Govt notifies 10% LTCG tax on IPO/FPO gains

[I]  Heavy rain over South Peninsula to peak on Sunday, says Met Dept

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  CAD worries due to rising crude add to rupee’s woes

[I]  RBI moves to stabilise rupee, allows oil companies to raise up to $10 billion overseas

[I]  Several Indian companies debarred by World Bank in 2018

[I]  Australia questions India’s sugar subsidy bilaterally and at WTO

[I]  Deficient rains to hurt India's 2019-20 sugar production

[I]  The good, the not-so-good and the ugly in govt’s oil tax cut

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Promoter-led firms grew faster than professionally-led ones since 2013

[I]  Airlines may report operating losses in FY19 despite a rise in fares

[I]  Fuel price cut: Combined market capitalisation of OMCs sees 10% wipeout

[I]  Private firms can use Aadhaar-based offline verification, says UIDAI CEO

[I]  Indian employees may see a 10% salary hike in 2019, highest in Asia Pacific

[I]  Ahead of monetary policy, RBI steps in with heavy dollar intervention

[I]  Markets stare at worst-ever FPI sell-off in 2018: All you need to know

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10553;  USDINR DGCX: 74.0575;  DJIA Mini: 26677;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7401;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23785;  EUR-USD: 1.1507; Crude Oil (WTI): 74.81;  Gold (Spot): 1191

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

05 Oct 2018

TODAY WOULD BE EMPOWERING TO GET CLOSER TO DREAM. HAVE A FULFILLING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 04 Oct 2018

 

To free traders, the new Nafta is tough to swallow. But the verdict is different when judged by a different standard—how the world’s trading system survived the most protectionist U.S. administration in memory. The rewrite of Nafta lifts a cloud from a significant portion of the U.S. economy by eliminating a Trump administration threat of 25% tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada, two big sources of cars sold in the U.S. Growth across U.S. service industries accelerated in September to its highest reading on record, clocking another month of robust growth for the gauge.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Emboldened May dances to a longer-playing tune

[I]  US junk debt provides strong returns despite broader woes

[I]  London IPO market hit by double disappointments

[I]  Paris plays down talk of crisis as third Macron minister resigns

[I]  Romania dispute highlights EU fears of creeping autocracy

[I]  Turkey’s inflation rate surges to almost 25%

[I]  Mexico boosted by US-Canada agreement on revamped Nafta deal

[I]  US Senate passes $60bn foreign development bill

[I]  India rivals China on inbound M&A for first time in a decade

 

REUTERS

[I]  India raises winter crop prices

[I]  Dollar scales 11-month peak on yen as U.S. yields surge

[I]  Oil falls as Saudi and Russia quietly agree output rise, US stocks swell

[I]  U.S. warns of new hacking spree from group linked to China

[I]  U.S. Fed prepares for next crisis, bets it will begin like the last

[I]  U.S. services sector activity hits 21-year high; hiring accelerates

[I]  UK economy shows steady growth, Brexit concerns weigh on firms - PMI

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Get Ready For Trade War Pain to Spread Through Asia

[I]  Bond Bears Popping Champagne See Treasury Yields Even Higher

[I]  China's Holiday Week Only Gets Worse as Stocks Slump With Yuan

[I]  Companies Are Furiously Guiding Down Analyst Earnings Estimates

[I]  China Bond Market Gets Reprieve From PBOC Easing, as Sales Jump

[I]  Argentina's Big Policy Shift Is Paying Dividends as Peso Soars

[I]  Fed Eyes 3%-Plus, Italy Peace Offer, Inflation Nation: Eco Day

[I]  South African Banks Face ‘Chicken or Egg’ Quandary as Economy Lags

[I]  The Easy Money Era Is Over in India

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trade Pact Shows Limits of ‘America First’

[I]  Nafta 2.0: What Is It, What’s Different

[I]  Nafta Rewrite Eases Threat of Auto Tariffs on Economy

[I]  Services-Sector Activity Hits Record High. Thank Tariffs, Local Governments

[I]  Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report

[I]  Trump’s Tax Returns in the Spotlight if Democrats Capture House or Senate

[I]  Private Sector Adds 230,000 Jobs in September

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt increases floor price of wheat by Rs. 105 per quintal

[I]  Tax Dept told to permit correction of errors to allow businesses to get GST transitional credit

[I]  SC upholds Constitutional validity of compensation law under GST

[I]  RBI lets oil marketing cos tap ECBs for dollar loans

[I]  Private players want committee on power transmission reconstituted

[I]  India moves up 8 spots in Visa’s e-payments adoption ranking

[I]  Met declares cyclone watch in Arabian Sea, ‘low’ in Bay

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Next few months will test a flier's patience

[I]  On fake news, India may follow Singapore model

[I]  Heavy rain likely in Kerala, Lakshadweep

[I]  India's export growth may slow down in coming months on domestic, global headwinds: FIEO

[I]  Tax collections in India raise doubts on lower borrowing plan

[I]  Russian Sovereign Fund to invest in Indian infrastructure

[I]  Invest India asks for inputs from industry to promote e-commerce industry

[I]  Need to regulate Committee of Creditors: NCLAT Chairperson

[I]  PIN code made mandatory for generating e-way bill

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Macro headwinds continue to roil markets as rupee plunges to new low

[I]  As rupee breaches 73 level, RBI allows OMCs to raise dollar from abroad

[I]  States plough Rs 10 bn in subsidies to incentivise tractor sales this year

[I]  IT firms, start-ups boost campus hiring at engineering colleges

[I]  Experts oppose govt proposal to cap income of independent directors

[I]  Micro-housing finance boom hits roadblock due to liquidity crisis

[I]  Govt considers special deposit scheme for NRIs to boost dollar inflows

[I]  PE investments zoom in Jul-Sep, making 2018 the best year yet for India

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10741;  USDINR DGCX: 74.1350;  DJIA Mini: 26773;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7470;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 24050;  EUR-USD: 1.1472; Crude Oil (WTI): 76.26;  Gold (Spot): 1197

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

04 Oct 2018