THE PERFECT DAY FOR THE MOST BLISSFUL PLEASURE. WISHING AN ENJOYABLE DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 14 Mar 2020

 

Trump declares Covid a national emergency as US shuts down. U.S. policy makers are contemplating a significant fiscal stimulus to protect businesses and consumers from the economic disruptions while consumer views on the economy have slipped in early March. The world’s major central banks are straining to tamp down threats to financial markets and the global economy, held back by limited tools. Canada moves to shore up economy with emergency rate cut unleashing $215 Billion loan capacity while ECB enters damage limitation mode with pledge of more action. Similarly other central banks flash the cash as market panic drives liquidity squeeze. India shuts cinemas in Mumbai, bars in Bengaluru whereas Sitharaman says Govt and RBI will take necessary steps. Saudi Arabia is flooding markets with oil at prices as low as $25 per barrel, specifically targeting big refiners of Russian oil in Europe and Asia, in an escalation of its fight with Moscow for market share.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Canada moves to shore up economy with emergency rate cut

[I]  Investors fear that monetary easing is losing potency

[I]  Central banks struggle to contain wild swings caused by the coronavirus outbreak

[I]  Top of Form

Italy wonders where Europe’s solidarity is as virus strains show

[I]  Top of Form

ECB enters damage limitation mode with pledge of more action

[I]  Eurozone will flex budgets to fight virus, says Centeno

 

REUTERS

[I]  India shuts cinemas in Mumbai, bars in Bengaluru after coronavirus death

[I]  Canadian Parliament rushes through ratification of USMCA trade pact

[I]  As coronavirus chaos spreads globally, Trump declares U.S. emergency

[I]  Keep calm and carry on: what is the logic behind Britain's coronavirus bet?

[I]  Canadian Parliament rushes through ratification of USMCA trade pact

[I]  Central banks flash the cash as market panic drives liquidity squeeze

[I]  Saudi Arabia floods markets with $25 oil as Russia fight escalates

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls, But the Worst May Be Yet to Come

[I]  Borders Tighten Within EU as Germany Readies Virus Aid Package

[I]  Trump Declares Emergency; Pelosi Drafts Bill: Virus Update

[I]  ECB Rebuts Attacks as Visco Signals It Can Buy Italian Debt

[I]  Philippine Economy to Grow 6% Under Worst Scenario, Diokno Says

[I]  Hungary to Close Schools From Monday in About-Face for Orban

[I]  For the Muni-Bond Market, It’s the Worst Week Since 1987

[I]  Canada Bank Regulator Unleashes $215 Billion Loan Capacity

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Policy Makers Weigh Next Stage of Stimulus

[I]  Fed Accelerates Treasury Purchases to Address Market Strains

[I]  Mnuchin Says U.S. Businesses Will Have Access to Liquidity

[I]  U.S. Grants Tariff Exemptions for More Medical Goods From China

[I]  Fed Shifts to Remote Oversight of Wall Street Banks

[I]  Central Banks Struggle to Confront Threats to Markets, Economies

[I]  Banks Not Coming Close To Testing Upside Of Fed’s New Mega Repos

[I]  Newsletter: Recession Risks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  ‘RBI must look into possible trends in retail inflation before deciding on rate revision’

[I]  February auto sales skid on economic slowdown, BS-VI transition

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Start-ups anticipate delays in funding, cash crunch

[I]  World economy powering down daily makes recession more likely

[I]  Indian carriers may ground 40-50 aircraft on weak demand, visa cancellations

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Trump declares covid a national emergency as US shuts down

[I]  How Asia rose to the coronavirus challenge

[I]  Fate of the economy now hinges on the virus

[I]  Yes crisis raises questions on NBFC revival

[I]  Forex reserve hits new record high of $487.23b

[I]  Vegetable oil imports down 10.5% to 11.12 lakh tonnes in Feb

[I]  Dollar shines as pandemic drives rush for liquid assets

[I]  Exports post first rise in 7 months, grow by 2.91% in February

[I]  RBI revises exposure limits for urban cooperative banks to single, group borrowers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Market rebounds as bulls deliver knockout punch after opening-hour shocker

[I]  Coronavirus impact: India's Silicon Valley placed under lockdown for a week

[I]  Govt, RBI to take necessary steps, says Sitharaman on coronavirus impact

[I]  Fast-track rights issue: Sebi comes out with guidelines for REITs, InvITs

[I]  Market rout: RBI intervenes to protect continuously falling rupee

[I]  Short sellers caught off-guard as market swings within hours of opening

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Mar 2020

FRIDAY THE 13^TH OR WHATEVER, SMILE IS THE BEST SOLACE. WISHING A COMFORTING DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 13 Mar 2020

 

Economists see rising risks of recession world-wide as expanding swaths of commerce shut down in the U.S. and world economies. World markets suffer record meltdown as alarm grows of further disruption to the global economy. VIX rises to highest level since 2008 crisis as fear grips markets. Fed said it would inject $1.5 trillion in bid to prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in markets while economists sharply cut forecasts for the U.S. economy this year, predicting it will contract in the second quarter and raising expectations for a recession. Bank of Canada follows Fed with market liquidity injections and ECB announced a package of bond purchases and cheap loans aimed at mitigating the economic shock while RBI said it has adequate dollar reserves and will conduct sell/buy swaps in the foreign exchange market to ensure adequate dollar liquidity amid the current global rout in markets. Although the shock has sharply raised the probability that the world will suffer a recession, the main challenge now is limiting its severity and preventing a health crisis from becoming a financial crisis. UBS cuts India GDP growth forecast to 5.1 pc for FY21 whereas Finance Ministry tells PSBs to ensure credit not disrupted although Auto sale picks up in Feb but negative outlook for March.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed promises to pump trillions into financial markets

[I]  Lagarde triggers investor jitters as ECB launches virus response

[I]  Banks scramble as companies rush to tap credit lines

[I]  Italy faces mounting economic damage from coronavirus

[I]  Iran asks IMF for $5bn to fight coronavirus

[I]  US health body’s reputation takes a knock over coronavirus

[I]  US Senate cancels recess as stimulus talks ramp up

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian stocks crash to worst day since 2008 as pandemic fuels growth fears

[I]  Markets suffer record meltdown as global coronavirus alarm grows

[I]  India's retail inflation moderates, paves way for RBI action

[I]  World markets rout deepens as virus panic worsens

[I]  India's current account deficit shrinks sharply in October-December quarter

[I]  RBI seeks to ensure dollar liquidity amid coronavirus rout

[I]  Wall Street dazed and confused after worst day since 1987

[I]  U.S. weekly jobless claims drop, but coronavirus layoffs loom 

[I]  Euro zone industry output jumped in January before virus blow

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Unveils Dramatic Measures to Ease Market Strain on Virus

[I]  Banks Urgently Pitch Investors on Lending to Needy Companies

[I]  EU Leaders Under Pressure After ECB Salvo Fails to Calm Markets

[I]  Australian Stocks Could Drop 50% From Peak in Worst Case: IG

[I]  90% of Analysts See BOJ Adding Stimulus Over Virus Hit: Survey

[I]  Why India’s Financial Sector Keeps Blowing Up

[I]  We’re All Japan Now as Virus Drives Low-Rates World Toward Zero

[I]  China Home Sales Plunged in February as Outbreak Intensified

[I]  Bank of Canada Follows Fed With Market Liquidity Injections

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists See Rising Risks Of Recession World-Wide

[I]  Fed to Inject $1.5 Trillion in Bid to Prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in Markets

[I]  WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter

[I]  ECB Steps Up Stimulus, but Doesn’t Cut Rates

[I]  Coronavirus Lockdown Batters Italy’s Fragile Economy

[I]  Trump Could Sign a Coronavirus Emergency Declaration Thursday

[I]  As Recession Looms, Priority is Lessening Severity, Easing Financial Stress

[I]  Behind the Scenes of U.S. Coronavirus Economic Policy-Making

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Retail inflation falls to 6.58%; factory output goes up 2%

[I]  Taking a cue from the US Fed, RBI likely to cut policy rates

RBI to conduct sell/buy swap for $2 b to halt rupee’s fall, provide dollar liquidity

[I]  Coronavirus: Schools, colleges, cinema halls shut in Delhi till March 31

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Private banks safe: RBI assures state govts

[I]  Virus is giving CEOs across India a headache

[I]  Technically, we will be in recession in most parts of the globe, including India: Mark Mobius

[I]  UBS cuts India GDP growth forecast to 5.1 pc for FY21

[I]  India's current account deficit shrinks sharply in Oct-Dec quarter

[I]  NHAI's debt has risen over 9 times since 2014-15

[I]  Parliament passes amendments to IBC

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Ensure credit not disrupted after bank merger, Finance Ministry tells PSBs

[I]  Beware of competence without humanity or humility

[I]  Potato prices jump by 25% due to crop damage, frequent hailstorms

[I]  After a decade, cash may become king again amid market volatility

[I]  India VIX rises to highest level since 2008 crisis as fear grips markets

[I]  Foreign cruises banned from entering India amid coronavirus spread

[I]  Auto sale picks up in Feb but negative outlook for March over Coronavirus

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8905;  USDINR DGCX: 74.8500;  DJIA Mini: 20406;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5238;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 16820;  EUR-USD: 1.1197; Crude Oil (WTI): 31.08;  Gold (Spot): 1563

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Mar 2020

TRUST IS THE MOST PEACEFUL FORT. WISHING A SERENE DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 12 Mar 2020

 

Coronavirus is declared a pandemic as fears of economic crisis is rippling through U.S. and global economies, but it could take a few months to fully see the fallout in data that tracks economic performance around the world. Britain’s government and central bank announced a rare joint stimulus plan to combat the debilitating effects on the economy, a bold move that raises questions about whether the broader region can muster a similarly synchronized response. Australia unveils $11.4 billion stimulus to curb the impact while Singapore president considers using past reserves as businesses bleed whereas economists start forecasting negative U.S. GDP numbers. Coronavirus-induced market mayhem has pushed so much liquidity out of U.S. Treasuries that the true value of more than $50 trillion in assets around the globe is in doubt. The Trump administration plans to delay the April 15 tax deadline for most individual taxpayers as well as small businesses as part of an effort to mitigate the effects. Trump suspends all travel from Europe to US while India suspends all tourist visas to the country in a wide-reaching attempt to prevent the spread of coronavirus, as cases across the region continued to rise. Plunging Dow enters 'bear market' whereas India is exploring nuts and bolts of possible FTA with Australia although Indian banks turn wary post IBC and tighten lending norms for labour-intensive units.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Coronavirus declared a pandemic as fears of economic crisis mount

[I]  Trump suspends all travel from Europe to US 

[I]  Sunak unveils £12bn stimulus to counter UK coronavirus shock

[I]  Saudi Arabia plans oil capacity boost in latest price war move

[I]  Coronavirus could force difficult choices on health systems

[I]  ECB needs to act forcefully to offset coronavirus effects

 

REUTERS

[I]  India cancels tourist visas, closes Myanmar border as coronavirus cases rise

[I]  Trump suspends travel from Europe to the United States to fight coronavirus, UK exempted

[I]  Australia unveils $11.4 billion stimulus to curb coronavirus impact

[I]  U.S. Fed banks in NY, Boston and San Francisco encourage staff to work from home

[I]  Nearly $640 billion coal investments undercut by cheap renewables - research

[I]  Italy toughens coronavirus lockdown after death toll soars

[I]  Britain fires with both barrels: emergency rate cut and budget boost

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Nowhere to Hide: Stocks and Bonds Suffer Losses Worse Than 2008

[I]  Economists Start Forecasting Negative U.S. GDP Numbers on Coronavirus

[I]  Lagarde Set for All-Out ECB Action on Virus: Decision Day Guide

[I]  Dash for Cash Is On as Corporate Titans Draw Down Credit Lines

[I]  Japanese Buy Record $41 Billion of Overseas Bonds in One Week

[I]  Russian Oil Producers Are Ready to Survive Flood of Saudi Crude

[I]  Singapore President Considers Using Past Reserves as Businesses Bleed

[I]  $50 Trillion in Question After U.S. Treasury Liquidity Dries Up

[I]  China Credit Calm Masking Increasing Risks in $5 Trillion Market

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Puts Trump’s Economic Policy-Making to the Test

[I]  Trump Administration to Delay April 15 Tax Deadline for Most Individuals

[I]  Economic Data to Watch for Signs of Coronavirus Impact

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 15% in First Five Months of Fiscal Year

[I]  Fed Again Upsizes How Much Money It Will Lend Wall Street

[I]  Plunging Mortgage Rates Might Not End U.S. Housing Doldrums

[I]  Tax-Filing Delay Would Cushion Taxpayers, Create New Challenges for Preparers

[I]  U.K. Sends a Jolt of Stimulus to Cushion Against the Coronavirus

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India exploring nuts and bolts of possible FTA with Australia

[I]  Low crude price: It’s not Advantage India, with demand laid low by virus

[I]  As input disruptions loom, Goyal calls for industries meet today

[I]  Falling veggie prices hurt farmers

[I]  Slowdown in Gulf hits demand for fruits, veggies from Kerala

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India goes into quarantine, all tourist visas suspended

[I]  The world could be in for an all-out recession

[I]  Dow plunged 1,465 points, enters 'bear market'

[I]  SBI announces zero balance facility for all

[I]  Food ministry seeks extra Rs 13,000 crore to help states pay farmers

[I]  Falling crude to lower CAD by 25 bps to 0.7% in FY21: Report

[I]  SBI says tax cuts, and not rate cuts, can lift consumption

[I]  Govt to soon finalise mechanism to implement national strategy for AI

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt to sell Rs 8,000-cr SUUTI stake to meet revised FY20 divestment target

[I]  Parliamentary panel bemoans reduced budgets for commerce department, DPIIT

[I]  GST on mobile phones, textiles likely to be increased in Saturday meeting

[I]  Sovereign wealth funds may cut down India play as oil prices drop

[I]  Banks turn wary post IBC, tighten lending norms for labour-intensive units

[I]  Top India hedge fund hoards cash as market volatility remains high

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10004;  USDINR DGCX: 74.4425;  DJIA Mini: 23553;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5877;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 18412;  EUR-USD: 1.1320; Crude Oil (WTI): 31.36;  Gold (Spot): 1637

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
12 Mar 2020