WE TRUST WE'LL GROW ANEW WITH BETTER ABILITY TO ENJOY AND APPRECIATE EVERYTHING THAT REALLY MATTERS. WISHING A CANDID WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Apr 2020

Programs to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis illustrate the central bank’s sweeping influence and the potential peril that accompanies it. A virtual summit of Group of 20 energy ministers failed to produce a detailed plan to help resolve an unprecedented oil glut partly triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed is adjusting its annual “stress tests” for banks to incorporate lenders’ performance during the coronavirus-triggered downturn, which is worse than the hypothetical scenarios that the central bank previously planned. G20 backs largest oil supply agreement in history while Russia tapped foreign exchange reserves as rouble tumbled although emerging economies seek to support currencies as they face historic sell-off.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  G20 backs largest oil supply agreement in history

[I]  US and others throw weight behind Opec and Russia’s production cuts

[I]  Top of Form

Russia tapped foreign exchange reserves as rouble tumbled

[I]  Emerging economies seek to support currencies as they face historic sell-off

[I]  Top of Form

Top of Form

China consumer price growth slows after hitting 8-year high

[I]  The eurozone is at risk of a debt crisis worse than the last one

[I]  Eurozone countries strike emergency deal on coronavirus rescue 

[I]  Investors should ask who will buy all the new US government debt

[I]  IMF boosts emergency lending capacity to $100bn

REUTERS

[I]  India's coronavirus relief plan could leave millions without food aid

[I]  Millions filed for U.S. unemployment - many are still waiting for the cash

[I]  IMF, World Bank aid aimed at helping countries battle pandemic

[I]  Global business, workers, civil society join call for debt relief for poorer nations

[I]  U.S. six-month deficit rises to $744 billion ahead of virus budget storm in April

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Record Bankruptcies Predicted in Next Year as Unemployment Soars

[I]  Trump Steers Historic Deal to Cut World Oil Output Toward Finish

[I]  Europe’s Peripheral Bonds Get Lifeline From Last-Minute EU Deal

[I]  Another Tail Risk Hedge Fund Had Eye-Popping March Returns

[I]  Turkey Seeks FX Swaps With G-20 States Including U.S.

[I]  U.S. Inflation Slowed Sharply in March While Core Index Fell

[I]  Let Debt Loose and Get ‘Hanged’ in Market, Orban Warns

[I]  China’s Bank Lending Surges After PBOC Steps Up Support

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Emergence as a Power Player Poses Risks to Its Independence

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 8% in First Half of Fiscal 2020, Treasury Says

[I]  Coronavirus Disruptions Pushed U.S. Prices Down in March

[I]  Industrialized Nations Fail to Come Up With Oil-Market Fix

[I]  The Fed’s Main Street Lending Program: Who’s Eligible?

[I]  Small-Business Loans Face Delays

[I]  This Year’s Stress Test For Big Banks Is Real: the New Coronavirus

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  FinMin’s monthly report indicates fiscal deficit may widen in FY2019-20

[I]  Receipts to meet 42 per cent of expenditure have to be raised in March

[I]  Covid-19 impact to be felt beyond six months: EY survey

[I]  Navi Mumbai APMC faces flak for partially closing market

[I]  Centre lowers levies on coal to support consumers

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Barring farmers, rest may be asked to stay at home post April 14

[I]  NITI Aayog suggests mandi norms relaxation for farmers for 6 months

[I]  Unseasonal rains to harm rabi Crops: IMD

[I]  Pre-monsoon sowing of kharif crops begins; paddy acreage up 27 per cent

[I]  Experts favour a gradual opening up of the economy

[I]  View: Coronavirus could be India's black swan event

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Shortage of workers in clearing cargo clogs airports, ports, railways

[I]  NSO struggles to gather accurate inflation, industrial data during lockdown

[I]  Ball in Centre's court: States for lockdown extension as India sits tight

[I]  India-focused agri-input players with strong balance sheet better placed

[I]  Workers to owners count losses as Bengal's small factory hub shuts down

[I]  ADB pledges $2.2 bn to bolster India's health infrastructure, MSMEs

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 Apr 2020

MAY CHOICEST FAVOUR AND BLESSINGS OF GOD ALWAYS SHOWER UPON YOU. WISHING A SPIRITED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Apr 2020

Work from home a success for many companies and it may become new normal. After a widely expected and sharp drop in the U.S. economy over the next three months, a panel of top business economists sees high joblessness persisting for more than a year in an outcome that would douse hopes for a quick, post-pandemic return to normal. U.S. Jobless Claims Soar for Third Straight Week and Fed unveils new programs to support $2.3 Trillion in lending program that will purchase short-term notes directly from states, large U.S. counties and cities. The government and the private sector are going deeper in the hole to survive the economic shutdown. The debt could be a drag on recovery if businesses and individuals hold back on investment and spending. Economists say low interest rates should help manage the soaring debt load. RBI says coronavirus has 'drastically altered' India's growth outlook while Fed, BoE push deeper into uncharted territory. Saudi, Russia outline record oil cut under U.S. pressure as demand crashes.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Democrats set out demands for new coronavirus stimulus

[I]  More than £52bn in dividend payments at risk in UK

[I]  EU will not ‘die’ if single currency fails to cope

[I]  Stocks rise on hopes outbreak could be nearing peak

REUTERS

[I]  RBI says coronavirus has 'drastically altered' India's growth outlook

[I]  Fed, BoE push deeper into uncharted territory in face of coronavirus slump

[I]  Saudi, Russia outline record oil cut under U.S. pressure as demand crashes

[I]  High U.S. unemployment, 2.5 million jobs lost through 2021: survey

[I]  India's February industrial output rises 4.5% y/y

[I]  U.S. economy should be able to reopen on 'rolling basis' - White House adviser Kudlow

[I]  Coronavirus crisis could plunge half a billion people into poverty - Oxfam

[I]  EU ministers agree half a trillion euro coronavirus rescue plan

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Even OPEC+’s Deep Cuts Couldn’t Keep Oil Markets From Plunging

[I]  Fed to Buy Junk Bonds, Lend to States in Fresh Virus Support

[I]  Powell Says Fed Will Act ‘Forcefully’ to Help U.S. Recovery

[I]  Chinese Inflation Slows as Virus Hurts Demand and Oil Slumps

[I]  Fed Has Firepower to Do More Even After $2.3 Trillion Aid Blitz

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Soar for Third Straight Week

[I]  Fed Unveils New Programs to Support $2.3 Trillion in Lending

[I]  Economic Data Spur Debate Over Lifting Virus Restrictions

[I]  Coronavirus Crisis Legacy: Mountains of Debt

[I]  Powell Pledges Aggressive Fed Action

[I]  Fed’s Housing-Market Concerns Raise Pressure to Help Mortgage Firms

[I]  Las Vegas Job Losses Could Double Those of 2007-09 Recession

[I]  Fed Minutes Reveal Alarm Over Virus’s Economic, Market Disruptions

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Drop in spot power purchases rates helps State discoms, utilities

[I]  No import duty on ventilators, masks, other key medical equipments for six months

[I]  Gold demand to drop 30% this year

[I]  Railways notifies parcel trains to supply perishable produce, milk across major cities

[I]  Maharashtra to shut Navi Mumbai onion-potato market from April 13

[I]  Bengal to allow reopening of tea gardens

[I]  Exporters seek cheaper credit, more incentives

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  States ready for life after lockdown

[I]  A country when its 1.3 bn citizens stay home

[I]  Labour shortage may break supply chain in lockdown

[I]  The world now faces a new 'Great Depression'

[I]  Dollar heads for weekly loss on Fed move, easing virus fears

[I]  FY21 gross state borrowings to touch Rs 7.8 L cr on Covid crisis

[I]  RBI sees inflation plunging to 2.4% in Q4 of this fiscal

[I]  Centre’s cash transfer and welfare schemes may miss their mark

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt begins mapping of migrant workers for relief measures

[I]  Debt schemes see worst ever outflows in FY20; liquid funds suffer most

[I]  'Covid-19 hangs over future like spectre': RBI in Monetary Policy Report

[I]  India Inc likely to get further relief on the loan repayment front

[I]  Work from home a success for many companies, may become new normal

[I]  RBI admits GDP forecasts prior to coronavirus outbreak were off the mark

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 Apr 2020

FEEL THE BLESSING AMIDST ABUNDANCE OF WISHES IN THE ENVIRONMENT. WISHING A BLESSED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 Apr 2020

Goldman Sachs has made the steepest revision to its forecast of India’s GDP for financial year 2021 to 1.6 per cent from 3.3 percent previously. India is considering plans to seal off coronavirus hotspots in Delhi, Mumbai and parts of the south while easing restrictions elsewhere as a way out of a three-week lockdown that has caused deep economic distress. The U.S. economy is set for a deep slide in coming months with the coronavirus forcing businesses to shut and putting millions out of work, but Federal Reserve policymakers are also warning of a slugging recovery once the pandemic subsides. WSJ Survey finds the coronavirus pandemic will cause a severe economic contraction, 14.4 million job losses and a spike in the unemployment rate to 13% this spring, with an economic recovery starting the second half of the year. More than £52bn in dividend payments at risk in UK while Europe watches as countries slowly emerge from lockdown. World Bank says sub-Saharan Africa will enter recession in 2020 while it downgrades outlook for developing countries in Europe and Central Asia. After pandemic, Fed policymakers see slow U.S. recovery whereas U.S. companies are criticized for cutting jobs rather than investor payouts although world economy faces $5 Trillion hit that is like losing Japan. UN reports about 400 million workers in India may sink into poverty while FICCI says Industry needs stimulus package of Rs 9-Rs 10 lakh cr although Rs 1-trn stimulus package for MSMEs is on cards..

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Opec has ‘disappeared’, says oil veteran Andrew Gould

[I]  Eurozone’s two biggest economies sink into historic recessions

[I]  Eurogroup fails to land deal on virus economic response  

[I]  Europe watches as countries slowly emerge from lockdown

[I]  EU carbon emissions tumble during lockdowns

[I]  Singapore fights third wave of coronavirus infections

[I]  More than £52bn in dividend payments at risk in UK

REUTERS

[I]  India considers narrowing lockdown to virus hotspots

[I]  India's inflation likely fell to a four-month low in March: Reuters poll

[I]  As delivery workers emerge as frontline soldiers, government warms to e-commerce

[I]  Trump thanks India for decision on anti-malaria drug

[I]  World Bank says sub-Saharan Africa will enter recession in 2020

[I]  World Bank downgrades outlook for developing countries in Europe, Central Asia 

[I]  After pandemic, Fed policymakers see slow U.S. recovery

[I]  Japan's economy faces 'extremely high' uncertainty on pandemic hit - central bank head 

[I]  U.S. companies criticized for cutting jobs rather than investor payouts

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Private Equity Denied Access Again in Senate’s New Loan Bill

[I]  Vietnam May Extend Social Distancing Order If Outbreaks Occur

[I]  Philippine Economy’s Best-Case Scenario Is Zero Growth, Finance Chief Says

[I]  Bank of Korea Warns on Growth Hit From Pandemic, Holds Rates

[I]  World Economy Faces $5 Trillion Hit That Is Like Losing Japan

[I]  Reserve Drawdown of $105 Billion Signals Emerging Currency Risk

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Minutes Reveal Alarm Over Virus’s Economic, Market Disruptions

[I]  WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment

[I]  Trump Eyes Tariffs as Tool to Tame Oil Glut

[I]  Illinois, New York Residents Among First to See Bigger Virus Unemployment Payments

[I]  Fed Eases Wells Fargo’s Asset Cap to Lend to Small Businesses

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Goldman Sachs makes steepest cut to India’s GDP at 1.6%

[I]  Time for gradual revival of farm activities

[I]  Cutting government ad spends will lead to job losses in broadcast sector: IBF

[I]  Tracking government’s steps to contain economic fallout of the coronavirus

[I]  Reverse migration to hit procurement operations at mandis

[I]  Govt caps expenditure for Ministries, Departments

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Mumbai prepares for worst-case scenario

[I]  India's best bet now is to get back to work

[I]  Govt working on staggered easing of lockdown

[I]  RBI's forex move could shift overseas trades to India

[I]  Priority to keep exports open: Piyush Goyal

[I]  About 400 million workers in India may sink into poverty: UN report

[I]  Industry needs stimulus package of Rs 9-Rs 10 lakh cr: FICCI

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Coronavirus lockdown: Rs 1-trn stimulus package for MSMEs on cards

[I]  Firms weigh measures, protocols to adapt to post-coronavirus world

[I]  Hit by coronavirus lockdown, residential builders stare at a bleak 2020

[I]  I-T Dept to release all pending tax refunds up to Rs 5 lakh immediately

[I]  Govt unlikely to grant any package for industry to pay workers' salaries

[I]  Global trade likely to fall by 13-32% in 2020 amid Covid-19 outbreak: WTO

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8999;  USDINR DGCX: 76.5975;  DJIA Mini: 23313;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5697;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19230;  EUR-USD: 1.0864; Crude Oil (WTI): 25.82;  Gold (Spot): 1648

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 Apr 2020

HEAR THE WHISPER AND CHIRP AMIDST THE CALM. WISHING AN AMUSING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 08 Apr 2020

Hundreds of thousands of cash-starved Indian small businesses have either deferred or cut their workers' wages this month, say industrialists and union leaders. In the scramble to contain the coronavirus financial fallout, U.S. policy makers have embraced an ambitious big-government agenda that could redefine Washington’s role in the economy. Government officials and business leaders are turning their attention to a looming challenge in the fight against the new coronavirus: How to reopen a $22 trillion economy that has never been shut down like this before. The U.S. economy is in a contraction and could reopen in four to eight weeks. UK looks to learn from German mass tests in quest to end lockdown while Japan gambles on partial lockdown to control coronavirus although Economists are united in support of the coronavirus lockdown. A $100 billion REIT rout pulverizes family fortunes across Asia whereas social groups urge mass debt relief for poor countries hit by virus crisis. Lockdown beyond April 14 is possible after experts raise red flags and under pressure from states, Centre considering extension of lockdown. Economists revise India's growth forecast in less than a month due to uncertain impact of COVID-19 and interestingly while global crude oil prices are plummeting to historic lows, India’s storage tanks are only a little over half full.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Loss of working hours to equal 195m full-time jobs, UN agency warns

[I]  UK looks to learn from German mass tests in quest to end lockdown

[I]  Japan’s corporate cash-hoarders have moment in sun

[I]  Senior Africans propose ‘standstill’ on eurobond debt payments

[I]  Japan gambles on partial lockdown to control coronavirus

[I]  Economists are united in support of the coronavirus lockdown

[I]  ECB data show eurozone banks had weak profits before coronavirus

REUTERS

[I]  Small businesses struggle to pay wages amid lockdown

[I]  Social groups urge mass debt relief for poor countries hit by virus crisis

[I]  Australia's 'Big Four' banks see shares fall after regulator urges dividend deferral

[I]  Pandemic set to tip Japan into deep recession this year, BOJ seen easing again: Reuters poll

[I]  China orders Baidu to clean up low-brow content

[I]  Layoffs, closures to wipe out 6.7% of working hours worldwide

[I]  BOJ to scale back some operations amid coronavirus pandemic 

[I]  Japan's machinery orders rise unexpectedly but darker days seen ahead

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  A $100 Billion REIT Rout Pulverizes Family Fortunes Across Asia

[I]  U.S. Slashes 2020 Oil-Output Forecast Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

[I]  Two Accounting Scandals in One Week Burn Investors in China Inc.

[I]  Japan’s Economy in Emergency Set to Shrink 25%, Goldman Says

[I]  RBNZ Open to Increasing QE in ‘Rapidly Evolving Situation’

[I]  China Debates Slashing Economic Growth Target Amid Virus Reality

[I]  China Braces for Wave of Soured Loans With New Bad-Debt Manager

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  In Coronavirus Response, Republicans and Democrats Like Big Government

[I]  Attention Turns to Eventual Reopening of U.S. Economy

[I]  U.S. Economy Is in a Contraction, Says Larry Kudlow

[I]  Small Businesses’ Finances Highly Vulnerable to Coronavirus Crisis

[I]  Fannie, Freddie Unlikely to Aid Mortgage Companies, FHFA Chief Says

[I]  The Fed’s Intervention Is Widening the Gap Between Market Haves and Have-Nots

[I]  Newsletter: Crisis of Confidence

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  As crude prices plummet, India’s tanks are only half full

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Retailers expect around 80,000 job losses due to lockdown, says survey

[I]  CMIE estimates 23% spike in unemployment rate during lockdown

[I]  Covid fears hit demand for livestock feed, crashed prices: Anmol Feeds

[I]  Supply chain woes making food expensive

[I]  PE investments slump 39% YoY in Q1 of 2020: Report

[I]  Covid-19: Maharashtra farmers plan a ‘constructive campaign’

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Lockdown beyond April 14 possible after experts raise red flags

[I]  Virus throws a wrench into divestment plans

[I]  Masala bonds less palatable after rate cut

[I]  28 states cleared to borrow up to Rs 3.2L crore

[I]  Economists revise India's growth forecast in less than a month due to uncertain impact of COVID-19

[I]  States get another lifeline from RBI to meet cash-flow mismatches

[I]  Commerce ministry creates online platform for issuance of 'certificate of origin' for exporters

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Cash-starved and desperate, states borrow at steep rate in lockdown

[I]  Under pressure from states, Centre considering extension of lockdown

[I]  90% of trucks in India are now off roads amid coronavirus lockdown

[I]  Manufacturers will struggle to get labour back after lockdown is lifted

[I]  NBFC-MFIs seek clarity from RBI on 3-month moratorium on loans

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8996;  USDINR DGCX: 76.3200;  DJIA Mini: 22727;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5668;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19300;  EUR-USD: 1.0874; Crude Oil (WTI): 25.21;  Gold (Spot): 1651

Best Regards, ARBIND

08 Apr 2020