SMILE IS THE GREATEST GIFT. WISHING A CHEERFUL WEEKEND WITH SMILE.

Macro Economic News 30 Mar 2019

 

India’s trade ministry has proposed that the government delays by a month the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods that were due to go into effect from April 1. Indian Trade deficit pushes CAD to 2.5 per cent of GDP in Q3 while India's April-February fiscal deficit at 134% of FY target. A key measure of U.S. inflation fell in January to its slowest pace since 2016.  U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators haggled over how to get Beijing to walk back China’s tough cybersecurity law as both sides push to settle a yearlong tariff fight. Sales of new homes ramped up at the start of 2019. Consumers’ outlook on the U.S. economy improved in March. The Canadian economy expanded in January, beating expectations.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  MPs deliver ‘Brexit Day’ blow to May

[I]  Venezuelan president tightens grip on media

[I]  Turkey vows to plough ahead with buying Russian air defence system

[I]  Germany extends arms embargo against Saudi Arabia

[I]  EU looks for May’s plan B ahead of April 10 summit

[I]  May running out of options after third Brexit defeat

[I]  May confronts Brexit choices she hoped never to face

 

REUTERS

[I]  India trade ministry proposes delay in tariffs on U.S. goods

[I]  India Oct-Dec current account gap, balance of payments weaken on-year

[I]  Australia to boost national security funding by $400 million - newspaper

[I]  U.S. investors seek comfort in flood of data

[I]  Euro zone inaction leaves ECB to step into the breach again

[I]  Argentine lawmakers seek greater oversight of Chinese space facility in Patagonia

[I]  White House calls for Fed to reverse U.S. rate hikes

[I]  Trade hopes lift Wall Street; S&P 500 notches best quarter since 2009

[I]  White House warns Russia over troops in Venezuela, threatens sanctions

[I]  U.S., China report progress in Beijing trade talks

[I]  U.S. consumer spending soft, inflation benign as economy slows

[I]  Turkish lira weakens again after rocky pre-election week

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Scolds the Fed Over ‘Mistakenly Raised Interest Rates’

[I]  U.K. Edges Closer to Election After May's Brexit Deal Rejected

[I]  Texas Oil Production Falls for the First Time in a Year

[I]  China Touts Progress With U.S. as Both Focus on a Final Deal

[I]  The Palladium ‘Bubble Has Burst’ With Biggest Drop Since 2010

[I]  Commodities’ Best Quarter Since 2016 May Be Tough Act to Follow

[I]  Fed Boost, Rate Rally Spur BBB Borrowers to Primary Market

[I]  Never Mind the Inverted Yield Curve, Canadian Assets Are Soaring

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Inflation Gauge Slid in January

[I]  Consumers’ Cautious Start to 2019 Trims Expectations for Growth

[I]  U.S. Trade Negotiators Take Aim at China’s Cybersecurity Law

[I]  Stephen Moore’s Unusual Route to the Fed

[I]  Sales of New Homes Surge After Stagnating for Months

[I]  Consumer Sentiment Improved in March

[I]  White House Pushes Fed to Cut Interest Rates

[I]  Canadian Economy Expanded 0.3% In January

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt leaves interest rate on small-saving schemes unchanged

[I]  To plug charging infrastructure gap, e-scooter manufacturers turn to detachable batteries

[I]  India wants EU to relax sampling norms, reduce clearance time for fish exports

[I]  While businesses recognise the value of data, protection still a challenge: Research

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Low inflation numbers could be deceiving

[I]  Oil is getting ready to sprint, but demand headwinds loom

[I]  Forex reserve continues to swell, hits $406.7 billion

[I]  RBI’s liquidity move, dollar swap keep short-term rates in check

[I]  RBI sets NBFC-MFIs' average base rate at 9.21% for April-June

[I]  Trade deficit pushes CAD to 2.5 per cent of GDP in Q3

[I]  CBDT asks I-T Department to probe about 3 lakh de-registered firms for money laundering

[I]  Falling inflation? Numbers from states don't say so: HDFC Bank

[I]  Falling household savings can widen CAD, lead to higher rates: India Ratings

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Draft e-commerce policy set for overhaul, online players submit objections

[I]  Private equity investments in real estate gain traction, says report

[I]  India's April-February fiscal deficit at 134% of FY target: Govt data

[I]  Technology can displace, transform 45m jobs globally by 2025: Report

[I]  India approves new coal projects amid a shrinking global pool

[I]  Oil posts biggest quarterly rise since 2009 on OPEC cuts, sanctions

[I]  Sebi wants safety-first, contingency plans in place for MF investors

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 Mar 2019

PEOPLE ARE HAPPIER FOR YOUR HAPPINESS. WISHING A CHEERFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 29 Mar 2019

 

The U.S. economy finished the year on a softer note than previously estimated and new data shows corporate-profit growth stalled, pointing to weak momentum at the start of 2019. China is offering foreign technology firms better access to the country’s fast-growing cloud-computing market, according to people briefed on the matter, as Beijing fashions a compromise in a tech sector the U.S. wants opened as part of a trade deal. The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits declined last week. U.S. companies more than quadrupled the amount of foreign earnings they sent home in 2018 following enactment of a tax-law overhaul in late 2017.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Turkey burns through foreign reserves to shore up lira

[I]  US clamps down on investors in China surveillance group

[I]  May to ask MPs to pass Brexit divorce deal on Friday

[I]  German businesses set to shift operations out of UK

[I]  US and China resume their dance in latest trade talks

[I]  Beijing ramps up crackdown on labour activists

 

REUTERS

[I]  South Korea's factory output contracts sharply to two-year low as exports sag

[I]  Oil prices rise amid OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions

[I]  Japan manufacturing output rebounds, but broad economic pulse remains weak

[I]  At rally, Trump says Russia probe backers tried to steal power illegally

[I]  China thanks Kazakhstan for support on Xinjiang de-radicalisation scheme

[I]  Fed done raising interest rates; significant chance of cut in 2020: Reuters poll

[I]  Japan manufacturing output rebounds, but broad economic pulse remains weak

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Global Investors May Spur Change in China’s $13 Trillion Debt Market

[I]  Hungry for Yield? China's State Giants Won't Deliver This Year

[I]  After Striking Out Twice, A Trader Makes Another Big Bet on Australia’s Rate Cut

[I]  The Palladium ‘Bubble Has Burst’ With Biggest Drop Since 2010

[I]  Seesaw Economy Takes Hold, And Most Aren’t Taking Any Chances

[I]  Mexico Keeps Key Interest Rate Steady

[I]  Wall Street's ‘Fear Gauge’ Defies Growth Panic Flashed in Bonds

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Had Less Momentum Heading Into 2019 as Corporate Profits Stalled

[I]  Clarida Says Fed Must Pay Closer Attention to Global Growth Risks

[I]  Illinois Democrats Offer Relief From Deduction Cap, But Not Repeal

[I]  China Floats Cloud Concession to Foreign Tech Firms in U.S. Trade Talks

[I]  Floods Deal New Blow to Farm Belt

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  Real Time Economics: The Economy May Look Worse Before It Looks Better

[I]  Fed in Good Place for Wait-and-See Monetary Policy, Official Says

[I]  Company Repatriations of Cash Surged, Then Moderated in 2018

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Scorched earth: Drought rages after monsoons fail

[I]  Tourism players find their sweet spot in elections

[I]  Consumer credit growth driven by unsecured lending: CIBIL

[I]  India keen to re-start talks on trade package with the US

[I]  Automakers hit by double whammy of costlier inputs, rising dealer inventory

[I]  Used car market racing ahead with more organised players in the fray

[I]  Why G-Sec yield has moved in a narrow band

[I]  A/c opening: RBI relaxes forex norms for FPIs and FVCIs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt throws Rs 21,428 cr lifeline to five PSBs

[I]  Banks have a good news from bad loans front

[I]  Asian currencies trend lower on global growth worries

[I]  Finance Commission chief makes case for institutional mechanism to check fiscal deficit

[I]  PE, VC investment in India at USD 20.5 billion in 2018: Report

[I]  Direct tax collection falls short, CBDT raises alarm

[I]  Raghuram Rajan: Dissonance between GDP, employment numbers; need to restore historical trust in our data

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India Inc's top line growth projected to halve in Q4, says CRISIL report

[I]  Online marketplace to quench global thirst for India's rich and dark coffee

[I]  Digital sectors can comprise 10% of GDP by 2025: McKinsey

[I]  From validity to route distance, govt relaxes norms for e-way bills

[I]  Home loan queries at finance firms down 7.9% in December quarter

[I]  Mutual funds see healthy inflows through equity NFOs in FY19: Report

[I]  No permissions, no angel tax: Rahul makes his business pitch for elections

 

MARKETS (07:45 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11648;  USDINR DGCX: 69.4875;  DJIA Mini: 25780;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7182;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21161;  EUR-USD: 1.1228; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.56;  Gold (Spot): 1291

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
29 Mar 2019

HOW COOL IS THAT THE GOD WHO CREATED UNIVERSE, NEEDED YOU TOO. WISHING A GRACIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Mar 2019

 

British Prime Minister Theresa May failed to sway hardline opponents of her European Union divorce deal with an offer to quit, but parliament's bid to agree an alternative fell short, leaving the Brexit process as deadlocked as ever. Some Federal Reserve officials are saying it is too soon to consider cutting U.S. interest rates, despite rising market speculation of such a move because of slowing global growth and signals of trouble from the bond market. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in January as exports edged higher while imports declined, reflecting volatile trade dynamics with China amid tariff negotiations by the Trump administration. Multinational companies warn that the new tax system, meant to help them compete overseas and create domestic jobs, could instead put them at a disadvantage and reduce their incentive to invest at home.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Tensions emerge between Dublin and Brussels over Irish border 

[I]  France launches ‘profound’ reform of civil service

[I]  India touts military capability with anti-satellite missile launch

[I]  China industrial profits suffer sharpest fall in a decade

[I]  Hong Kong hands out its first digital banking licences

[I]  The eurozone needs a dose of fiscal stimulus

[I]  Industrial policy is not just about picking winners

 

REUTERS

[I]  Monsoon should be robust provided no El Nino surprise: India Meteorological Department official

[I]  China will cut real interest rate levels, lower financing costs: Premier Li

[I]  Bond yields spiral lower, take stocks along for the ride

[I]  Indonesia may quit Paris climate deal over palm oil

[I]  May's offer to quit fails to break Britain's Brexit stalemate

[I]  'Don't blink' on Trump tariffs, steel CEOs tell U.S. lawmakers

[I]  Turkey running low on hard cash reserves as markets fear 'dollarisation'

[I]  China bucking global shift from coal-fired power: environmental study

[I]  U.S. trade deficit shrinks on strong soybean, auto exports

[I]  ECB can delay rate hike again, mitigate negative rates if needed: Draghi

[I]  U.S. current account deficit hits 10-year high; firms bring back more foreign profits

[I]  Pakistan to announce monetary policy decision Friday

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Analysts Doubt Depth of U.S.-China Yuan Pact as Talks Resume

[I]  U.K.'s Brexit Stalemate Deepens Despite May's Promise to Quit

[I]  A Huge Options Trade Is Betting Markets Are Wrong on Fed Cuts

[I]  How the U.S.-China Trade War Reached a Turning Point

[I]  Ex-Goldman Trader's Hedge Fund to Return Clients' Cash

[I]  Pakistan’s Emerging-Market Status Just Got Into Big Trouble

[I]  Offshore Drilling Makes a Comeback After Years in Shale's Shadow

[I]  Three U.S. Job Gauges to Watch as Markets Project a Fed Rate Cut

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Push Back on Market’s Rate-Cut Belief

[I]  Fed in Good Place for Wait-and-See Monetary Policy, Official Says

[I]  Powell’s Critics Miss the Mark

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Narrowed Sharply in January

[I]  Tax Changes Hit Overseas Profits of U.S. Companies

[I]  Company Repatriations of Cash Surged, Then Moderated in 2018

[I]  ECB’s Draghi Hints at Drawbacks of Negative Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  CBDT raises alarm as direct tax collection still 15% short

[I]  British MPs prepare to vote on alternatives to Brexit deal

[I]  India, US ink pact to check tax evasion by MNCs

[I]  ‘Unconditional cash transfer, a powerful idea’

[I]  SEBI defers shareholders nod rule for related-party payments by 3 months

[I]  RBI throws open rupee interest rate derivatives market to non-residents

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Indian basmati rice industry to clock its highest export ever

[I]  Centre seeks PSUs’ help to meet FY19 revenue targets

[I]  Commerce min calls meeting of stakeholders on increasing exports to China on Apr 5

[I]  India's monsoon should be robust provided no El Nino surprise: Top govt forecaster

[I]  Digital adoption may result in strong economic growth in India: McKinsey report

[I]  Why isn’t investment picking up with this growth? It’s not adding up: Raghuram Rajan

[I]  India's subsidies to farmers very low as compared to western countries: Commerce secy

[I]  India-US sign pact for exchange of reports to check tax evasion by MNCs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  CBDT raises alarm as direct tax collection stands at Rs 10.21 trillion

[I]  India's crowded car market will have new global players focused on SUVs

[I]  India successfully tests ASAT missile, joins space superpower club

[I]  Bank credit clips at 14.5%; deposits grow in double-digits at 10%: RBI data

[I]  Sebi defers implementation of new royalty payment corporate code

[I]  Moped sales see demand revival, rise 3.6% in first 11 months of 2018-19

 

MARKETS (09:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11465;  USDINR DGCX: 69.4025;  DJIA Mini: 25601;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7131;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21065;  EUR-USD: 1.1255; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.20;  Gold (Spot): 1310

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
28 Mar 2019