TOGETHER WE EXPERIENCE THE BEAUTY OF HOLINESS THIS WEEKEND

Macro Economic News 05 May 2018

 

For the third report in a row, expectations are for a decline in the jobless rate to 4.0 percent from the 4.1 percent level it has held since October 2017. Average hourly earnings are forecast to show an annual gain of 2.7 percent. The U.S. delegation to China, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and their hosts agreed to continue talking, while reaching no breakthrough over trade as their meetings ended in Beijing. The Trump administration asked China to decrease its trade surplus with the U.S. by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020, the kind of demand that Chinese officials had already warned against.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US demands China cut trade deficit by $200bn

[I]  European banks fall further behind their US rivals

[I]  Argentina’s peso woes raise big question for emerging markets

[I]  Trade war looms as US and China take hardline stance

[I]  US unemployment falls below 4% for first time since Clinton era

[I]  German business confidence extends decline — PMI

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. lawmakers set $717 billion defence bill with eye on China, Russia, Turkey

[I]  Trump team demands China slash U.S. trade surplus, cut tariffs

[I]  Banks should boost capital, not leverage: Fed's George

[I]  U.S. judge says Mueller should not have 'unfettered power' in Russia probe

[I]  SEBI to allow longer hours for equity derivatives trading

[I]  With no gut punch in view, Fed confident in its inflation footing

[I]  U.S. job growth picks up; unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent

[I]  China details CDR rules to woo overseas-listed companies

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Can You Build a Nation With 100% Gender Equality?

[I]  Trump Team's Trade Mission to China Lays Bare Yawning Divide

[I]  Trump to Meet Moon May 22 Before Planned North Korea Summit

[I]  U.S. Stocks Log Biggest Gain in Over Three Weeks: Markets Wrap

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks End With Key Differences Still Unresolved

[I]  A Decade of Banks Behaving Badly Is Being Laid Bare in Australia

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Falling Unemployment Could Pressure Fed to Move Faster

[I]  U.S. and China Make Scant Progress in Trade Talks

[I]  China Tensions Chill Soybean, Pork Trade

[I]  Beijing Plans $47 Billion Chip-Sector Fund

[I]  U.S. Foreign-Trade Deficit Narrowed in March

[I]  U.S. Workers’ Productivity Edged Up in First Quarter

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Edged Higher Last Week

[I]  EU Paints Rosy Economic Picture, But Warns of Threats From U.S.

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST Network will soon become a 100% govt-owned company

[I]  Single GST return form by year-end: Adhia

[I]  India to China: Simplify registration process to boost pharma trade

[I]  Services PMI jumps to 51.3; job growth fastest in seven years

[I]  ‘Govt ready to talk with industry on M&A issues’

[I]  Dust storm devastates vegetable crops, harvested wheat

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  To scale up the Doing Business index, focus on structural reforms

[I]  India Inc foreign borrowing swells 20% in Mar at USD 5.07 bn

[I]  Niti Ayog inks pact with IBM to develop crop yield prediction model using AI

[I]  With a good April show, FY19 GST target achievable: Report

[I]  Good news for India's pharma industry: China removes import duties on 28 medicines

[I]  India tops list of fastest growing economies for coming decade: Harvard study

[I]  Improved demand conditions push services output higher: PMI

[I]  PMI: Service activity improves in April, job creation at 7 year high

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI to infuse liquidity in bond market as forex reserve dips by $3.22 bn

[I]  25% IT chiefs draw more than Rs 100 million, says a report by IiAS

[I]  Eastern Peripheral Expressway is still a work in progress

[I]  Sugar cess divides state governments at GST Council meeting

[I]  Bitcoin trading will survive RBI's ban, say cryptocurrency investors

[I]  Illiquid five-year bond distorts yield curve

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

05 May 2018

WISH WE WAKE UP EVERY MOMENT WITH THANKFUL ATTITUDE

Macro Economic News 04 May 2018

 

The U.S. and China wrapped up their first day of trade talks on Thursday, without giving any sense of progress on a deal to stop an escalation of trade barriers. Senior officials declined to comment to reporters upon arrival at their hotel after the meetings, but a White House economist described the first day as "fairly positive." Trade talks will dominate Friday's agenda once again. Investors will also be mining the RBA's Quarterly Monetary Policy statement for clues to Australia’s outlook. Also due: Philippines CPI, PMI reports for Singapore and Hong Kong, along with Malaysian trade figures.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US listings triumph over market veterans for investors

[I]  China braced for surprises in US trade talks

[I]  Brussels warns Trump’s trade policies pose threat to Europe

[I]  Germany vows to speed up asylum process as migrants free deportee

[I]  Argentina defends peso as emerging markets stumble

[I]  Poland offers fresh concession to EU over legal reforms

[I]  EU draws up Iran plan B amid jitters over nuclear deal

[I]  Commonwealth Bank admits losing records for 20m customer accounts

 

REUTERS

[I]  Australia's central bank sees faster growth, slow inflation - a recipe for steady rates

[I]  U.S. says will be consequences for China's South China Sea militarization

[I]  U.S. Treasury Secretary says having good trade conversations in China

[I]  Indonesia looks to blockchain to fix its dodgy data challenges

[I]  Oil prices inch up on Iran sanction worries

[I]  U.S. risks reversing Iran nuclear deal's inspection gains

[I]  Measuring Macron: Is France’s leader rebooting the economy?

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  America’s Last-Ditch Climate Strategy of Retreat Isn’t Going So Well

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap With China Widens as Beijing Talks Get Under Way

[I]  White House Sees a ‘Positive’ Start to Closed-Door China Talks

[I]  How Trump Led the U.S. and China to the Brink of a Trade War

[I]  VIX Probes Are Latest Gut Check for Volatility Traders

[I]  Central Banks Sounding More Cautious as Fed Holds: Economy Week

[I]  Bank of England Rate-Hike Cycle Is Merely Delayed, Niesr Says

[I]  Flow of Venezuelans Into Brazil Set to Increase, Police Say

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Foreign-Trade Deficit Narrowed in March

[I]  U.S. and China Dive In for Prolonged Trade Talks

[I]  Xi’s Hands Tied in Trade Talks With U.S.

[I]  Trump Tariff Plans Drive Wedge Between France and Germany

[I]  U.S. Workers’ Productivity Edged Up in First Quarter

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Edged Higher Last Week

[I]  U.S. Nonmanufacturing Pace Slowed in April

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Private sector subscribers of NPS can now opt for 75% equity investment

[I]  India opposes US proposal to penalise China for IPR violation

[I]  Import tariff exemption on 28 drugs will help reduce trade gap with India, says Chinese ambassador

[I]  PM campaigning, can’t frame Cauvery scheme: Centre to SC

[I]  ‘India has one of the simplest cost structures for MFs’

[I]  Stormy conditions may persist over North for a couple of days more

[I]  Bank account portability still some time away

[I]  Why are Indian banks curtailing their overseas operations?

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  High NPAs may restrict credit growth to 8% in FY19: Report

[I]  India's slippery bond vigilante is back

[I]  Red hot in 2017, dollar bonds turn cold now

[I]  PE, VC investments record best first quarter since 2008 at $7.9 billion: EY

[I]  India to pitch for increased lending from ADB

[I]  India's GDP revisions are beginning to confuse even RBI's own economists

[I]  Revamp of 500 cities: 0.38% of outlay utilised in 3 years

[I]  US, Japan and Singapore propose free flow of data, oppose server localisation

[I]  GST Council meet tomorrow; simplification of return form on agenda

[I]  New industrial policy may suggest stronger local bodies

[I]  Interest rates unlikely to go up further: DEA Secy

[I]  Pay 2% of capital investment for green clearance: Environment Ministry to Corporates

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Employee addition by Indian information technology's Big 4 drops over 76%

[I]  India Inc lines up to hedge forex exposures before it is too late

[I]  With wings clipped, payments banks face uphill task

[I]  GST Council to take a call on converting GSTN into a govt-owned company

[I]  Firms to challenge input tax credit notices, revenue department's stand

[I]  NPS subscribers allowed to partially withdraw fund for setting up biz

[I]  Textiles, jewellery and other labour-intensive export sectors face slowdown

[I]  AUMs of mutual funds are growing and eating into share of bank deposits

 

MARKETS (7:45 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10663;  USDINR DGCX: 66.8900;  DJIA Mini: 23844;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7483;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22420;  EUR-USD: 1.1991; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.38;  Gold (Spot): 1314             

Best Regards, ARBIND

04 May 2018

WISH WE APPRECIATE LITTLE THINGS AND TUNES INTO GRATITUDE TO LIFE ITSELF.

Macro Economic News 03 May 2018

 

Stocks slump and the yield curve steepens after the Federal Reserve stands pat on interest rates. And all eyes turn to Beijing Thursday where U.S. and Chinese negotiators are set to discuss trade. A senior government official said China won't succumb to "threats" from the U.S. just as trade talks are set to begin in Beijing. China won't accept any U.S. preconditions for negotiations, such as abandoning its long-term advanced manufacturing ambitions or narrowing the trade gap by $100 billion. U.S. inflation is close to target without indicating any intention to veer from their gradual path of interest-rate increases. The 10-year Treasury reversed an early decline that sent yields near 3%. The world economy showed signs of stabilizing after a recent moderation as manufacturing activity strengthened for the first time this year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Eurozone growth hits slowest pace in 18 months

[I]  Bank of England leads central bank policy retreat

[I]  US groups warned of credit hit from US-China trade war

[I]  Wealthier EU states attack Brussels plan to end rebates

[I]  Iran’s oil gains at risk as Trump’s nuclear deadline nears

[I]  Russian military spending falls as sanctions bite

[I]  Saudi Arabia expects return to growth this year

[I]  Fed signals steady course on inflation outlook

[I]  China shores up N Korea ties with foreign minister visit

 

REUTERS

[I]  Officials lament inaction of cities with world's worst air

[I]  Air of Indian cities looks dirtiest

[I]  Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, says inflation near goal

[I]  Chances for U.S.-China trade breakthrough seen slim in Beijing talks

[I]  China won't accept preconditions in U.S. trade talks - Chinese government official

[I]  U.S. cuts off Brazil tariff talks, adopts steel import quotas

[I]  Ultimate frontier market? Amid thaw, Chinese eye North Korea real estate

[I]  EU launches battle for bigger post-Brexit budget

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Over 30? You’re Too Old for Tech Jobs in China

[I]  China Is Weakening Its Currency Before U.S. Trade Talks Begin

[I]  The Trump Effect May Finally Be Weighing on China’s Exports

[I]  Banks Seeking Hong Kong Deposits Push Rates as High as 3%

[I]  Treasury Supply Shock Has Yet to Fully Hit the Market, Analysts Say

[I]  Fed Calm Over 2% Inflation Underlines Gradual Rate-Hike Outlook

[I]  A Rare Treasury Yield-Curve Trade Emerges After Fed Decision

[I]  Fears of Rigging Hang Over Zimbabwe's First Post-Mugabe Vote

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Indicates Increases Will Continue

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the May Statement Changed From March

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Posts Another Month of Employment Growth

[I]  Trump’s Aggressive Trade Agenda Brings Heightened Tensions

[I]  Why Xi’s Hands Are Tied in Trade Talks

[I]  Trump Trade Chief Wants Nafta Deal by Mid-May

[I]  Eurozone Economy Wobbles in First Quarter

[I]  Why Central Banks’ Power Over Markets Is Here to Stay

[I]  Real Time Economics: Europe Stumbles | Share Buybacks |Trade Deadlines

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Telecom Policy eyes 40 lakh new jobs, $100-b investment by 2022

[I]  Centre pilots private poppy cultivation and extraction of opium with new technology

[I]  Chennai, Lucknow, Guwahati airports to get Rs. 5,000-cr facelift

[I]  Cross-border sales a ‘win-win’ for global brands with no retail presence in India

[I]  Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.6 in April

[I]  Industry, analysts give the draft a thumbs up

[I]  ‘Fixed line broadband access to 50% of households by 2022 is a tall task’

[I]  Bay ‘low’ curls up over Myanmar coast; is it Arabian Sea’s turn next?

[I]  High NPA ratio proves PSBs did not make enough provisions: RBI

[I]  Banks’ recognition of NPAs will be beneficial in the long-term: Moody’s

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India among top 5 biggest defence spenders

[I]  US yields dip after quarterly refunding, Fed statement

[I]  Cabinet approves subsidy of Rs 55 per tonne for sugarcane farmers

[I]  India to WTO: No breach of farm subsidy limits in FY15 and FY16

[I]  Poland bets big on West Bengal as investment destination

[I]  India’s trade surplus with US hits a high

[I]  India slips 3 notches to 11th spot in AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index

[I]  Demand push for manufacturing in April as PMI rises to 51.6

[I]  Is India's oil addiction undermining its economy once more? All signs are worrying

[I]  Now, transfer of commercial tenancy rights put under GST

[I]  Taking broadband to all is focus of new policy: Telecom Secretary

[I]  Foreign investors need to develop state specific strategies in India: Niti

[I]  Cabinet nod to ordinance to amend law for speedy disposal of commercial disputes

[I]  Cabinet approves continuation of PMSSY beyond 12th Five Year Plan to 2019-20

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  EPFO temporarily shuts Aadhaar seeding portal after reports of data theft

[I]  Truck, bus sales zoom from low base in April as infra sector picks up

[I]  Economic growth in India likely to strengthen at 7.3% this fiscal: Report

[I]  Revenue dept to look at quarterly GST revenues average for trend analysis

[I]  Aviation sector will see Rs 1 trn investment in next 5 years: Jayant Sinha

[I]  Payroll data indication of formal sector, not overall jobs in economy: Govt

[I]  RBI policy relatively insulated from global monetary policy: Staff paper

[I]  New orders, faster output pull up April manufacturing PMI from 5-month low

[I]  Banks' push for NPA recognition to hurt near-term profitability: Moody's

 

MARKETS (7:30 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10713;  USDINR DGCX: 66.9900;  DJIA Mini: 23925;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7543;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22473;  EUR-USD: 1.1973; Crude Oil (WTI): 67.85;  Gold (Spot): 1310             

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 May 2018