WISHING YOU A SOULFUL, SACRED, SECURED, SPLENDID AND SPECTACULAR WEEKEND AHEAD

Macro Economic News 23 Feb 2019

 

Demand for long-lasting goods produced by U.S. factories increased for the second month in a row in December, driven by orders for transportation equipment. The Federal Reserve said Friday the U.S. financial system remains “substantially” safer than before the 2007-09 recessions but noted a significant expansion in business debt and weaker lending standards.  President Trump, citing progress in U.S.-China trade talks, said he is looking at extending a deadline to raise tariffs and hoping to meet next month with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to complete a broad trade agreement.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed’s ability to hold inflation to target ‘is at risk’

[I]  Carmakers talk to smaller auditors in threat to Big Four

[I]  Venezuela at potential turning point as aid delivery nears

[I]  UN warns loss of biodiversity threatens food production

[I]  Saudi crown prince turns to Asia to rebuild his image

[I]  Britain’s political deadlock may finally be breaking

[I]  Reduced prices in Costa Rica’s high-end home market

 

REUTERS

[I]  Japan's crown prince says thoughts of future "make me solemn"

[I]  Trump says he's inclined to extend China trade deadline and meet Xi soon

[I]  Russia accuses U.S. of planning to arm the opposition in Venezuela

[I]  Fed's policy pause sets stage for broad overhaul

[I]  Trump vows veto as Democrats launch resolution to stop border emergency

[I]  Sudan's Bashir declares state of emergency, dissolves government

[I]  Thirty years on, U.S.-China politics and tech collide

[I]  UK retailers curb investment plans ahead of Brexit - CBI

[I]  Higher state spending helps German economy avoid recession in fourth quarter

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. to Trigger No-Deal Brexit Plans a Week Before Deadline, Sources Say

[I]  China's Pledge for U.S. Soy Buying Catches Traders Off Guard

[I]  Fed Leans Toward Shortening Maturity of Its Treasury Holdings

[I]  Fed Officials Talk Up New Approach to Meeting Inflation Goal

[I]  El Nino's Taking the Wind out of Sales of U.S. Power Generators

[I]  Canopy Growth Could Spin Off Properties Into REIT, CEO Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Federal Reserve Report Highlights ‘Resilient’ Financial System

[I]  China Trade Talks Extended as Trump Pushes to Close Deal

[I]  Economists’ Advice to Fed: Look at Rising Prices and Tight Labor Market

[I]  Fed’s Balance-Sheet Runoff Could End in Latter Half of 2019

[I]  At Trump-Kim Summit, Host Vietnam Blazes Trail for North Korea

[I]  Business Investment Falters Amid Growing Global Economic Uncertainty

[I]  N.Y. Fed’s Williams Calls for Reassessing Inflation-Targeting Framework

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India-US trade deal likely to be wrapped up soon

[I]  Just 9 crops account for two-thirds of global food output: FAO report

[I]  Auto outlook for FY20 stable, but tepid demand likely in first half: Ind-Ra report

[I]  FMCG cos retain top spot in advertising spends in 2018

[I]  Many disagreements and conflicts stirring the global pot

[I]  Dredging Corp stake sale in limbo with port trusts yet to get open-offer exemption

[I]  How emerging technologies are redrawing the ground rules of biz

[I]  More bank reforms needed to support economic growth: NITI Aayog chief

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India to soon launch a DNS server to protect users from malware

[I]  How Global CEOs see future of globalisation

[I]  2019 polls could be world's most expensive

[I]  Gold’s safe haven demand intact, prices may soon top $1,360

[I]  Forex reserve rises by $150 million to $398.3 billion

[I]  RBI bundles NBFCs into 1 type, offering operational flexibility

[I]  Ensuring intermediation by banks in clean manner a challenge: Rajiv Kumar

[I]  Shell companies: e-filing details must for all firms

[I]  Niti Aayog bats for setting up independent debt management office

[I]  CBDT sets up panel to help bring down tax litigation

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  CEA Subramanian backs Nayak panel's report on governance reforms in PSBs

[I]  MCA seeks more details from companies to put a check on shell firms

[I]  Big-size, contiguous spectrum essential for 5G services, says Trai

[I]  Domestic IT firms may face growth headwinds in second half of 2019

[I]  India taking several steps to reduce dependence on imports of API

[I]  Tea Board to do surprise checks, raid sellers to flush out spurious produce

[I]  Have to blend good governance with clever politics, says Arun Jaitley

[I]  Business remain slow at India-Asean Expo despite bilateral bonhomie

[I]  RBI forms new NBFCs' category by merging 3 to ease operational flexibility

[I]  Fixed-maturity plans mop-up likely to take hit amid debt turmoil

[I]  Supply cut likely to raise natural rubber prices in Indian markets

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

23 Feb 2019

WITH THE NEW DAY COMES NEW STRENGTH AND NEW THOUGHTS. WISHING A NEW DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Feb 2019

 

China's January home price growth slips to nine-month low. US Sales of previously owned homes fell in January, a sign that demand for housing continued to cool at the start of the year. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its January meeting, providing more detail about discussions before it formally signalled a halt to interest rate rises. President Trump said he would impose auto tariffs on the European Union if a trade deal can’t be reached between the two sides. The Green New Deal will face the same constraints that all such undertakings do: They can’t spend more than the economy can produce. Ignoring those constraints will either lead to inflation, a politically weakened Fed, or both.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Iran finds creative ways to evade Trump sanctions

[I]  Hong Kong opens banking market to online competition

[I]  Philippines warns of arms race after US nuclear pact exit

[I]  IMF agrees to $4.2bn fund for Ecuador

[I]  Turkey hits at call to suspend EU accession talks

[I]  China curbs on Australian coal imports alarm markets

[I]  US importers shift China orders over trade war fears

 

REUTERS

[I]  China sees 'enormous potential' in Saudi economy as crown prince visits

[I]  India needs to spur growth amid low inflation outlook: RBI's monetary policy committee

[I]  No 'dramatic effect' on economy from China port ban on Australian coal: RBA

[I]  Australia seeks to reassure investors over coal ban at China port

[I]  China's January home price growth slips to nine-month low

[I]  U.S., China haggle over toughest issues in trade war talks

[I]  Farm real estate prices holding up, but USDA worried about a fall

[I]  Oil dips as U.S. crude output hits record 12 million barrels per day

[I]  Brexit defections reveal frayed fabric of UK politics

[I]  U.S. business spending on equipment weakening

[I]  Property bust rattles Australia's record-breaking economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Develops Non-Lethal Microwave Radar Weapon: Global Times

[I]  China Economists See Pause, Not Halt, to Trump's Higher Tariffs

[I]  Fresh Slowdown in China Home Prices Turns Spotlight on Beijing

[I]  Beijing Shifts Gears to Support Stocks After 2018 Disaster

[I]  China Economists See Pause, Not Halt, to Trump's Higher Tariffs

[I]  Renewed U.S. Sanctions on Iran Revive Fortunes of an Indian Bank

[I]  Trade Tanks in a Bad Week for Asia Data as U.S., China Tussle

[I]  EM Divergence Signals Pause May Be Ahead for U.S. Stocks: Chart

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Business Investment Falters Amid Growing Global Economic Uncertainty

[I]  U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop 1.2% in January

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  Fed Prepares to End Balance-Sheet Runoff Later This Year

[I]  Trump, Xi Face Pressure at Home Over Trade

[I]  Trump Continues to Weigh EU Auto Tariffs

[I]  Fed Minutes May Yield Clues to How Long Rate Pause Will Last

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Bonanza for 4.71 cr salaried persons, EPFO yet to decide on raising pension

[I]  Why brands must be a beacon for society

[I]  FSSAI, Ayush Ministry discussing regulations for Ayurvedic foods

[I]  Retail outlets: Oil companies issue letters of intent to over 2,500 applicants

[I]  Urban Indians ‘grossly’ underprotected

[I]  Benign inflation, risks to growth led MPC to cut rate, change stance

[I]  RBI top brass urges bank CEOs to lower lending rates

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India and China are targeting US at WTO

[I]  Govt in a hurry to ease norms for Andaman tourism

[I]  Odisha to implement PM-KISAN; farmers to benefit from central and state schemes

[I]  PMO rejects plan for dedicated NBFC to finance food processing projects

[I]  Total gross loan of microfinance industry grows 6 pc to Rs 65,090 cr in Q3

[I]  Emerging Markets accuse US of giving higher subsidy to farmers

[I]  President promulgates Unregulated Deposit Scheme Ordinance

[I]  Government re-promulgates ordinance for companies law amendments

[I]  Govt's reform initiatives transformed India into fastest-growing major economy: Niti Aayog

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Small savings investment hits a new high to fund power projects

[I]  RBI takes close look at 'standstill agreements', plans to tighten norms

[I]  Govt harnessing Big Data, AI for policy push, says Nandan Nilekani

[I]  Australia, Indonesia, Swiss tourism boards open new vistas for travellers

[I]  MSEs are becoming more optimistic about their business prospects: Survey

[I]  Parliamentary panel asks govt to make reports on black money public

[I]  RBI cut lending rate citing steady inflation, hoped to boost investment

[I]  RBI emphasises on quick transmission of monetary policy action by banks

[I]  Lower growth capital remains a key challenge for banks under PCA

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10783;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2425;  DJIA Mini: 25830;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7146;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21375;  EUR-USD: 1.1337; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.87;  Gold (Spot): 1326

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
22 Feb 2019

LETS GO WITHIN AND CONNECT WITH OURSELVES WITH CONFIDENCE. WISHING A MAGICAL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 21 Feb 2019

 

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince expected investment opportunities worth more than $100 billion in India over the next two years. Market participants are growing confident that the European Central Bank will soon try to boost the eurozone’s ailing economy by rebooting its program of ultracheap long-term loans to the banking system. Most Federal Reserve officials last month indicated they were ready to stop shrinking the central bank’s $4 trillion asset portfolio this year and believed an action plan should be released soon.  President Trump gave his firmest indication yet that the U.S. may not increase tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1, as scheduled, despite statements by his top trade official that the U.S. should stick to a firm deadline.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Ireland alarmed by UK’s food tariff plans in no-deal

[I]  Carmakers warn of huge hit from EU emissions tests

[I]  Japan exports see worst fall in 2 years on China slowdown

[I]  US shift to Asia is more than a short-term pivot

[I]  London and Brussels make the case for competition

 

REUTERS

[I]  Saudi crown prince expects investment worth more than $100 billion in India

[I]  Oil ticks over near 2019 highs amid OPEC cuts, but economic slowdown applies brakes

[I]  Japan auto lobby hopes Trump makes 'appropriate decision' on trade

[I]  Dollar inches up after Fed minutes, trade issues back in view

[I]  Australia posts bumper jobs run but soft outlook keeps rate cut views alive

[I]  Japan manufacturing shrinks for first time since 2016 amid trade war: PMI

[I]  No-deal Brexit may cut Scottish GDP up to seven percent: Scotland's chief economist

[I]  Canada to release budget, outline better drug coverage

[I]  Sudan's economic decline provides fuel for anger against Bashir

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore Says Tighter Foreign Worker Rules Are a ‘Surgical’ Move

[I]  Markets Are Too Complacent About Trade War, Morgan Stanley Wealth Says

[I]  California to Sell Debt in March for Train Trump Blasts as Waste

[I]  Japanese Manufacturing Contracts for the First Time Since 2016

[I]  Diagnosing a Market Meltdown: What the Fed Said About December’s Stock Plunge

[I]  May Could Be Forced to Fire Ministers Over Brexit Rebellion

[I]  America’s Shale Boom Keeps Rolling Even as Wildcatters Save Cash

[I]  Fed Hints a Bias Toward Hiking Endures as Balance-Sheet Rolloff Nears End

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Prepares to End Balance-Sheet Runoff Later This Year

[I]  Green New Deal Won’t Enjoy a Free Lunch at the Fed

[I]  Trump Eases Off Hard Deadline for China Tariffs

[I]  Markets Warm to the Prospect of an ECB Funding Boost for Banks

[I]  Europe Again Champions Intervention to Counter China’s Economic Might

[I]  Trump Continues to Weigh EU Auto Tariffs

[I]  Fed Minutes May Yield Clues to How Long Rate Pause Will Last

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  At 9.2%, IT sector hits 3-year high in FY19; yet most CEOs cautious

[I]  Saudi Prince promises to invest $100 billion in India, fight terror

[I]  GST Council adjourns meeting; to decide on lowering levy for real estate on Sunday

[I]  Domestic air passenger traffic growth up 9% in January, slowest in 52 months

[I]  ‘Digital economy, a $1-trillion opportunity for India’

[I]  Sugar output up 8% to nearly 22 million tonnes

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Severe winter likely to raise apple yield

[I]  Chilli not so hot as harvest gains momentum

[I]  Rate cut fails to tame yields in corporate bond market

[I]  Weak bond auctions flash warning on India's record debt sales

[I]  Regulatory cost weighs on India's CEOs as Modi fights graft

[I]  Finance ministry expects NPA recovery of Rs 1.80 lakh crore in FY19

[I]  India to remain fastest growing major economy in next decade: Report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt banks get Rs 48,239-crore capital boost to move out of PCA framework

[I]  FAME-II may disappoint electric two-wheeler manufacturers with lower sales

[I]  GST Council meeting adjourns, fails to arrive at a consensus on real estate

[I]  RBI Governor Das, bankers may not be on same page over passing rate cuts

[I]  Out 6 months later, FDI data show 7% fall in inbound equity investment

[I]  Govt clears reform to enhance domestic oil and gas exploration

[I]  90% of India's population will have smartphones by 2022, says report

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10746;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0725;  DJIA Mini: 26080;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7211;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21501;  EUR-USD: 1.1349; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.92;  Gold (Spot): 1340

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
21 Feb 2019