WISH THIS REPUBLIC DAY EMPOWERS US TO A STATE OF SUPREME POWER. HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY.

Macro Economic News 26 Jan 2019

 

Federal Reserve officials are close to deciding they will maintain a larger portfolio of Treasury securities, putting an end to its portfolio wind-down closer into sight. Reports on gross domestic product, consumer spending, housing and trade -- among the ones postponed or that are still likely to be delayed -- may start trickling in, as the Commerce Department restarts the process of collecting, analyzing and releasing the figures over the next month or so, based on what happened following previous shutdowns. A similar flow of data can be expected from the Agriculture and Treasury departments, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. While that challenge may ease in coming weeks, the full resumption of economic reports still won’t come in time for the meeting next week of Federal Reserve policy makers, who have increasingly emphasized their data dependence as they feel their way toward a peak in the rate-hiking cycle.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Reversal of fortune for Scotland’s independence champion

[I]  UK government’s priorities fail homeschooled children

[I]  Brexit is about sovereignty and parliament must respect that

[I]  The dark age of surveillance capitalism

[I]  Governments won’t fund sustainable development. Will private finance step in?

[I]  Living in the shadow of a tax scandal 

[I]  ‘Brexit discount’ on London property fails to tempt US buyers

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global Economy: Central bank policy tightening: damned if they do, damned if they don't

[I]  Backing down, Trump agrees to end shutdown without border wall money

[I]  Pope condemns 'senseless' stigmatizing of migrants

[I]  Consumer confidence in focus as shutdown fears fade

[I]  China and U.S. among 76 WTO members pushing for new e-commerce rules

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The American Brain Drain

[I]  U.S. Stocks in No-Man's Land After the First Sideways Week of 2019

[I]  Farmers and Traders Are Eager for Data as Government Reopens

[I]  Junk Bond Issuers Get in Now, While the Going's Still Good

[I]  ECB Can Sound More Confident in Economy by Cutting Its Forecasts

[I]  Shutdown Dents Consumer Sentiment for Some Republicans in Poll

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Mulls End of Portfolio Drawdown

[I]  Congress Passes Short-Term Measure to Reopen Government With No Wall Funds

[I]  Los Angeles and Other Cities Stash Money to Prepare for a Recession

[I]  ECB Worries Over Economy Mount, But Officials Stand Pat on Rates

[I]  Labor Market Powers On Despite Growth Concerns

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India keeps off 75-member WTO e-comm agreement talks

[I]  13 airports to soon see flight operations

[I]  India, Mauritius to ink economic cooperation pact soon

[I]  World Economic Forum meet without big leaders

[I]  Govt plans electronic manufacturing clusters between Noida and Meerut

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rabi acreage falls nearly 5% to 591.64 lakh hectares

[I]  India's most respected business tycoons turn up for The Economic Times Family Business Awards

[I]  Govt to issue price, demand forecasts for 5 crops soon

[I]  M&A and PE deals scale record $110 billion mark in 2018: Report

[I]  India under pressure as China joins WTO talks

[I]  Growth to remain in 7-7.5% range in next few years: PM advisory panel

[I]  Global slowdown fears: Swaminathan Aiyar on India effect

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Tax dept should be friendly with businesses: Piyush Goyal to taxmen

[I]  RBI governor Shaktikanta Das meets economists, discusses liquidity

[I]  Direct taxes to exceed target of Rs 11.5 trillion in 2018-19: CBDT chairman

[I]  Forgotten textile and art forms make a comeback with this season's garments

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

26 Jan 2019

TRUST THIS DAY WILL MAKE US SMILE AND KEEP US STRONG. WISHING A BRIGHT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 25 Jan 2019

 

A year ago the world looked like it would finally return to the boom times it enjoyed before the global financial crisis. Now, the boom may be over before it even started. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a measure of U.S. business trends, fell 0.1% last month. The Trump administration’s top economist said that the U.S. economy may not grow at all in the first quarter if the partial government shutdown continues. Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren is proposing an annual wealth tax, attempting to combat inequality and raise trillions of dollars with a significant new levy on the very richest Americans. The race to select the next president of the World Bank could be shaped by a strong international desire for the institution to have its first female president.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB warns eurozone at risk of further slowdown

[I]  EU leaders clash on migration, tax and deficits

[I]  Privacy concerns collide with public interest in data

[I]  Risks of second Brexit referendum must now be run

[I]  Venezuelan crisis calls for concerted diplomacy

[I]  In a capitalist world, truth trumps gratitude

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI making u-turn, seen shifting to neutral in February, cutting rates by mid-year: Reuters poll 

[I]  China's 2018 soybean imports from U.S. hit lowest since 2008

[I]  U.S., China 'miles and miles' from trade deal: Ross

[I]  Tokyo inflation picks up but BOJ's price target remains distant

[I]  Irish central bank warns of big hit to GDP growth if no-deal Brexit

[I]  Britain and Switzerland agree post-Brexit deal for insurers

[I]  Watchdog questions UK's oil decommissioning tax relief estimate

[I]  U.S. seeks to cut off money for Venezuela's Maduro, aid opposition

[I]  Global economy in real danger if U.S.-China trade war escalates - Reuters poll

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore Proposes Tighter Regulations for Ride-Hailing Firms

[I]  Trump Eyes Action to Limit States' Powers to Block Pipelines

[I]  Global Economy Endures a Case of the Mondays, All Week Long

[I]  U.K. Launches Inquiry to Find Advantages for Banks in Brexit

[I]  U.S. Patent Operations May Shut Down in Second Week of February

[I]  Singapore Is Seeing an Unprecedented Mortgage Slowdown

[I]  Mario Draghi Is Watching His ECB Rate Hike Slip Over the Horizon

[I]  There's a New Rival to Libor, Built by Those Who Oversee Libor

[I]  Global Economy Endures a Case of the Mondays, All Week Long

[I]  Government Shutdown Throws Rural Housing Markets Into Disarray

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Democrat Elizabeth Warren Proposes Wealth Tax on Rich Households

[I]  Labor Market Powers On Despite Growth Concerns

[I]  House Democrats Planning Hearings With Biggest U.S. Banks

[I]  U.S. Contemplates Appointing First Female President of World Bank

[I]  ECB Worries Over Economy Mount, But Officials Stand Pat on Rates

[I]  U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fell in December

[I]  The Global Boom, Barely Begun, May Be Over

[I]  White House Economist Says Economy May Not Grow in First Quarter

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Transport, power and renewable energy topped dealmaking in 2018

[I]  Domestic crude output down 4.3% in December

[I]  Pulse prices are rising, but only a little

[I]  Strong core performance, change in leadership comfort investors

[I]  RBI to strengthen PCR ‘for a 360-degree view of borrowers’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  RBI may've to borrow from govt if crisis hits

[I]  Budget: If you invest in a biz, it shouldn't make difference to you

[I]  India Inc raising more dollar funds

[I]  Rubber planters stretched to breaking point on policy delay

[I]  In a first, India enters $100 billion M&A club in 2018: Report

[I]  India's exports up 25 % to China during June-Nov 2018: FIEO

[I]  Government races to meet rural housing target

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Private lenders may have to cede profitability to strengthen deposit base

[I]  Davos 2019: Coping with the dark side of a champagne and chalet life

[I]  India beats pricing blues to record its best growth in shrimp exports

[I]  Wheat production likely to cross all-time high of 100 MT in 2018-19

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10950;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0000;  DJIA Mini: 24605;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6781;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20824;  EUR-USD: 1.1321; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.87;  Gold (Spot): 1282

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

25 Jan 2019

TRUST THIS DAY ENABLES US TO START WHERE WE ARE, WHERE WE CAN AND WITH WHAT WE HAVE. WISHING A TRUSTFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 24 Jan 2019

 

Business and political leaders meeting in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum are worried about global growth and the political impact of an economic slowdown. China’s trade dispute with the U.S., Brexit, Italian fiscal troubles and a fall in German industrial production are all signs of the sweep of a brewing synchronized global slowdown. A year ago the world looked like it would finally return to the boom times it enjoyed before the global financial crisis. Now, the boom may be over before it even started. Lenders are turning to borrowers with harder-to-document finances, helping drive growth in the kind of home loans that helped fuel the housing meltdown.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China’s vice-president dismisses growth fears

[I]  Big Four auditors told not to subvert switching rules

[I]  Capital raising by US oil companies falls sharply

[I]  Nigerian presidential hopeful vows to rewrite oil deals

[I]  Paris vows to extend labour reforms despite ‘gilets jaunes’

[I]  Pakistan plans reforms in move for IMF aid

[I]  China bad debt disposals hit levels not seen for 20 years

[I]  Europe can break the Brexit impasse

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. weighs oil sanctions on Venezuela as it steps up pressure

[I]  Dollar slips on global growth, trade war worries

[I]  Japan's factories flatline in January as exports fall most in 2-1/2 years-flash PMI

[I]  U.S. government shutdown to crimp growth, recession risk steady: Reuters poll

[I]  China says can achieve sustainable economic growth

[I]  U.S. oil firms tell OPEC their growth will slow

[I]  Abe to put trade, climate at top of G20 to-do list

[I]  Merkel calls for global cooperation to reach 'win-win outcomes'

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Big Oil Agencies’ Verdict on OPEC+ Pact: Glut Averted

[I]  Bank of Korea Stands Pat on Interest Rates

[I]  Venezuela Bond Investors Say the End May Be Near for Maduro's Regime

[I]  Prolonged Shutdown Risks Tarnishing Appeal of Dollar, Treasuries

[I]  China Vice President Pledges Continued, Sustainable 2019 Growth

[I]  The Shutdown Is Giving Giant Agriculture Traders an Edge

[I]  Zero U.S. Growth, Davos Defends Order, China's Pledge: Eco Day

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  The Global Boom, Barely Begun, May Be Over

[I]  The Political Effects of the Global Economic Slowdown

[I]  No Pay Stub? No Problem. Unconventional Mortgages Are Back

[I]  Home Sales Sank 6.4% in December

[I]  The World Braces for Slower Growth

[I]  Central Banks Struggle With Policy Settings

[I]  U.S. Manufacturers Ramp Up Production Despite Flagging Exports

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Industry’s fears about new labelling regulations unfounded: FSSAI CEO

[I]  National bench of GST appellate tribunal gets Cabinet approval

[I]  Railways to recruit 1.3 lakh people; 13,000 hires to be made under 10% EWS quota in first phase

[I]  Prices in contracts cannot be revised due to change in tax structure post-GST, rules HC

[I]  More funds for N-E autonomous district councils

[I]  VCs/PEs move to exorcise the Angel Tax devil

[I]  Coffee output seen inching up 1% to 3.19 lakh tonnes

[I]  Now, Govt may allow NRIs to subscribe to municipal bonds

[I]  India ranked 80th on Global Talent Index

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  GST, infra, higher spending top food-processing industry’s wish-list for govt

[I]  Government plans to link 22000 mandis with e-NAM platform by 2022

[I]  India's GDP growth may improve to 7.3% in FY20: Crisil

[I]  India's industrial activity likely to remain subdued in near term: Report

[I]  IRDAI: The key that can give India access to infra funds worth $4.5 trillion

[I]  India to spend 6.5% more on food subsidies in FY 2019-20: Sources

[I]  Government forms GST appellate tribunal for dispute resolution

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  New rule will give surplus reserves of Sebi, pension regulator to govt

[I]  Two-wheeler sales in the slow lane in Jan on rural distress, tepid demand

[I]  PSBs put Rs 1-trn bad loans on sale as delays plague bankruptcy proceedings

[I]  Secondary steel producers to play big role for 300 mn tonne industry

[I]  Water crisis could worsen India's bad loan problem, says WWF report

 

MARKETS (07:45 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10860;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2050;  DJIA Mini: 24515;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6773;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20513;  EUR-USD: 1.1385; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.33;  Gold (Spot): 1283

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

24 Jan 2019

THE LORD HIMSELF GOES BEFORE YOU AND STAYS WITH YOU. WISHING A GRATIFYING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 23 Jan 2019

 

India is likely to seek to raise about 800 billion rupees ($11.21 billion) through the sale of state-owned assets in the next fiscal year, beginning April 1. Home sales in the US fell sharply in December to their weakest level in more than three years, a difficult end to a weak year for the housing market and fresh evidence of a bumpy ride to come in 2019. China’s economic expansion languished to its slowest pace in nearly three decades last year, as a bruising trade fight with the U.S. exacerbated weakness in the world’s second-largest economy.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US rejects China offer of preparatory trade talks

[I]  Brussels and Dublin at odds over N Ireland hard border

[I]  Italy’s Five Star seeks to rekindle radical vigour

[I]  Tankers on fire in Crimea linked to Russia sanctions breach

[I]  China’s chipmaking still ‘years behind’ industry leaders

[I]  Infrastructure investors put ‘blanket ban’ on UK

[I]  The rise of the populist authoritarians

 

REUTERS

[I]  India likely to target about 800 billion rupees from state asset sales

[I]  Indian police arrest Rohingya Muslim group stuck on Bangladesh border

[I]  Brazil seeks to privatize key stretches of Amazon highways

[I]  Gold steady on global growth, Sino-U.S. trade worries

[I]  Japan exports post worst fall in two years as trade war bites

[I]  Yen firms on global growth and trade concerns

[I]  U.S. rejects offer from China for preparatory trade talks - FT

[I]  BOJ to retain ultra-low rates, global slowdown raises fresh policy challenge

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong's Billion-Dollar Plunges Highlight Share Pledge Danger

[I]  Davos Doesn’t Think There’s Going to Be a Global Recession

[I]  Trump Tariffs and Nafta Re-Do Prompt Increase in Trade Lobbying

[I]  Record House Prices, Jobs Growth Not Enough to Keep Dutch Happy

[I]  U.K. Parliament Moves Closer to Stopping a No-Deal Brexit

[I]  BofA Says Don't Believe the Hype on a Housing Collapse

[I]  Bunge's Latest Profit Warning Shows the Toll of the U.S.-China Trade War

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Home Sales Sank 6.4% in December

[I]  Companies Try to Skirt Shutdown’s IPO Limbo

[I]  How the Shutdown Is Hitting Business

[I]  Overseas Investment Seen Rebounding as U.S. Firms Repatriate Less Profits

[I]  Central Banks Struggle With Policy Settings

[I]  EU’s Focus for U.S. Trade Talks Risks Trans-Atlantic Clash

[I]  The Labor Market Is Strong, Despite Concerns About a Hiccuping Economy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  NITI Aayog panel, not NPPA, to monitor drug price control

[I]  Move to allow NITI Aayog to steer drug-price control raises hackles

[I]  ‘Govt tendering, procurement systems not start-up friendly’

[I]  PM using govt events to tarnish Opposition: Cong

[I]  China GDP data drag metal stocks

[I]  The missing women in workforce data

[I]  Kerala Minister pushes for ultra-high density cashew planting

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  RBI announces Rs 10,000 crore OMO on Thursday

[I]  20% hike in food subsidy in election year budget?

[I]  Direct investment support for farmers: Promising, but not easy

[I]  India kicks off duty cut talks with China

[I]  China slaps anti-dumping duties on chemical from India, Japan

[I]  Create financing ecosystem, build on bankable projects to revive infrastructure sector

[I]  Government to approve power tariff policy soon: R K Singh

[I]  Jobs, tolerance, protection of institutions key issues: Raghuram Rajan

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Staring at revenue shortfall, I-T dept sends tax notices to mutual funds

[I]  The 'blue flame' revolution

[I]  Banking tech institute proposes blueprint for blockchain platform in India

[I]  The importance of central bank communication

[I]  Davos 2019 is all about 'Globalization 4.0.' So what is that?

[I]  China cuts down army troops by about 50%; increases size of navy, air force

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10940;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2650;  DJIA Mini: 24465;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6830;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20631;  EUR-USD: 1.1367; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.57;  Gold (Spot): 1285

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

23 Jan 2019