A BEAUTIFUL LIFE IS BUILT WITH LOVE, LAUGHTER, GRACE AND FORGIVENESS. WISHING A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 15 Dec 2018

 

Fresh economic figures from Europe and China added to concerns that weakening growth at the end of 2018 will carry over into a sharper slowdown next year, weighing on the solid but cooling U.S. expansion. Americans stepped up their spending at the start of the holiday season, suggesting the economy’s key engine is humming.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Chinese data showing slowdown spook global markets 

[I]  UN climate talks overrun as delegates struggle to reach deal

[I]  EU agrees to create budget for eurozone

[I]  US farm groups plead to add agriculture to EU trade talks

[I]  Car sales in China set for first annual fall since 1990s

[I]  Spanish banks step up sales of bad loans and distressed property

[I]  Stop sniping at central banks and set clear targets

[I]  Sydney’s house price slump deepens

[I]  Anti-China sentiment dents Kuala Lumpur’s property appeal

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI board seeks more discussion on governance under new boss 

[I]  China's new home prices rise 0.9 percent month-on-month in November

[I]  Global growth worry hits stocks, but U.S. data lifts dollar

[I]  U.S. sets new March 2 date for China tariff increases amid talks

[I]  Nigeria lifts UNICEF suspension hours after accusing staff of spying for Islamists

[I]  China warns Tibetans ahead of Dalai Lama anniversary 

[I]  The price of progress in China: 'We traded our lives for development'

[I]  EU firmly rejects May's renegotiation efforts

[I]  India's November trade deficit narrows to $16.67 billion

[I]  U.S. sets new March 2 date for China tariff increases amid talks

[I]  U.S. consumer spending strengthening in boost to economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China’s Home-Price Growth Eases Amid Lackluster Buyer Demand

[I]  Why Paul Krugman Would Pause Rate Hikes if He was Fed Chair

[I]  Australia to Recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital, Report Says

[I]  The Stock Market Is the Most Divorced It’s Been From the Economy Since 2010

[I]  Calculating the Cost of Trump Turmoil in a Market Pushed to Brink

[I]  ‘Historic’ Tax Refunds Will Extend Retail Boom Into 2019

[I]  The Pessimist’s Guide to 2019: Fire, Floods and Famine

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Slower Overseas Growth Fans Worries on U.S. Expansion

[I]  Holiday Season Retail Sales Heat Up

[I]  Pay Rises in Tight Labor Market

[I]  Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019

[I]  Cold Weather Drove Industrial Production Growth in November

[I]  ECB Cuts Growth Forecasts as It Ends Bond-Buying Program

[I]  New Treasury Rules Extend Tax Relief to Foreign Banks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  To reel in subscribers, OTT outfits flood market with ‘sachets’

[I]  Loan waiver may not bear fruit for farmers: Rajan

[I]  RBI board meets, signals readiness to revisit governance framework

[I]  Export growth crawls in November as gems/jewellery, engineering goods falter

[I]  How India and Japan are enhancing their strategic relationship

[I]  Govt to set up medical devices promotion council

[I]  Deep depression over Bay to intensify into full-blown cyclone

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India to ink mega super computer deal with France

[I]  Loaded Rajan remark shows India's job woes

[I]  Auction for discovered small fields: Deadline to submit bids extended

[I]  Mauritius to adopt Indo-Israel project to grow vegetables

[I]  Anti-dumping duty likely on Chinese chemical

[I]  India's November trade deficit narrows to $16.67 billion, exports up 0.8%

[I]  Exports up 0.8 pc in November; trade deficit widens to USD 16.6 billion

[I]  Need not manufacture credit, liquidity issues: Arun Jaitley

[I]  RBI reserve should be used to fix financial system: Arvind Subramanian

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Investment bankers' equity market fee pool rises to 21% at $321 mn in 2018

[I]  RBI board reviews economy and liquidity, to hold talks on governance

[I]  Brick-and-mortar stores begin festive sales early to combat e-tailers

[I]  Rich homebuyers are now 'test-driving' multimillion-dollar mansions

[I]  Supply shortage pushes skimmed milk powder price up 25% in three months

[I]  Irdai clears the air on remuneration for insurance web aggregators

[I]  Foreign exchange reserves increases by $16.6 mn to $393.73 bn

[I]  Odisha has potential to establish 500 compressed bio-gas plants, say OMCs

[I]  Govt rubbishes report about PSBs shutting down ATMs for regulatory reasons

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

15 Dec 2018

JUST BELIEVE   IN YOURSELF AND SEE THE MIRACLE. WISHING A MIRACULOUS DAY TODAY.

Macro Economic News 14 Dec 2018

 

Most economists view a trade war between the U.S. and China as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019. Private economists tempered their expectations for the path of interest rates next year in a new Wall Street Journal survey, and many foresee the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in 2020. The European Central Bank cut its economic growth forecasts Thursday, highlighting the risks confronting Europe’s economy even as it ended its massive four-year stimulus program.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB to halt expansion of €2.6tn stimulus programme

[I]  Trump tariffs darken prospects for US solar

[I]  Russia gives nuclear group control of Arctic sea route

[I]  Italy budget U-turn not yet enough, Brussels warns

[I]  EU challenged over business founded by Czech PM

[I]  Sri Lanka’s top court rules dissolution of parliament illegal

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global Markets: Asian shares wobbly, euro steady after ECB ends QE 

[I]  China November steel output hits 7-month low on plunging profits, winter curbs

[I]  China's November retail sales, industrial output growth weakens sharply

[I]  Japan's business mood, capex steady but outlook sours: BOJ tankan

[I]  Oil prices edge up on hopes global supplies will tighten

[I]  EU gives May assurances on Brexit, but cold comfort

[I]  Japan December manufacturing, output expand but export orders contract: flash PMI

[I]  U.S. labor market tightening; inflation pressures muted

[I]  Beijing eases back on 'Made in China 2025' amid trade talks with U.S.

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China's Economy Slowed Again in November

[I]  Bitcoin's Year of Toil Deepens as December Losses Mount

[I]  Soaring House Prices Leave Singapore Millennials Stuck With the Folks

[I]  Markets Are Sending a Worrying Signal About the Australian Economy

[I]  Leveraged Loans Are Sinking, Even as Junk Bonds Find Support

[I]  Housebuilders are Another ‘Brexit Football’ for the Market

[I]  China Plans More U.S. Soybean Purchases Soon

[I]  All Is Not Lost for Poland's Troubled Corporate Bond Market

[I]  China's Economy Slowed Again in November

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019

[I]  Economists Scale Back Their Projections for Fed Rate Increases

[I]  ECB Cuts Growth Forecasts as It Ends Bond-Buying Program

[I]  Analysis: What Does $3 Trillion Buy in Europe?

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Post Largest Weekly Drop Since 2015

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Widened to $305 Billion in First Two Months of Fiscal 2019

[I]  China Prepares to Increase Access for Foreign Companies

[I]  Las Vegas Housing Weakness Signals the Slowdown Is Spreading

[I]  New Treasury Rules Extend Tax Relief to Foreign Banks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  PSBs petition new RBI chief to relax NPA resolution norms

[I]  COP24: Americans pledge support for Paris pact, make light of climate-change sceptic Trump

[I]  Uncertainty looms large over online pharmacies following Delhi HC order

[I]  India is not a market, but our main partner: French envoy

[I]  World Bank, Canada, UK to help countries move away from coal

[I]  India’s image is still that of a closed economy, says WEF’s Klaus Schwab

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  It's raining offers for car buyers this month

[I]  Vegetable oil imports decline 9% in November

[I]  US oil prices inch up amid stockpile drop, signs of easing trade tensions

[I]  Pound holds most gains after PM May survives vote but Brexit still in peril

[I]  Auction for discovered small fields: Deadline to submit bids extended

[I]  West Bengal: Paddy procurement scheme witness 8 time increase

[I]  Inventory pile-up sends potato crashing to Rs 2 a kg

[I]  Government working towards establishing labour code

[I]  For NCLT, it is a race against time for resolution of NPAs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Portfolio reshuffle of four RBI deputy governors likely before April

[I]  PSBs seek easing of loan recast rules in first meet with new RBI Governor

[I]  Brands lost in translation: Lack of good digital content creators a problem

[I]  Consumer goods output gets a durable boost, rises sharply in October

[I]  Carmakers dole out hefty year-end discounts to liquidate unsold stocks

[I]  Operational creditors should get a say, vote in insolvency process: SC

[I]  Construction orders boosted capital goods growth in October

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10777; USDINR DGCX: 71.6400;  DJIA Mini: 24439;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6819;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21439;  EUR-USD: 1.1360; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.35;  Gold (Spot): 1242

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Dec 2018

WHEN YOU LOVE YOURSELF, YOU GLOW FROM INSIDE. WISHING THIS DAY YOU ATTRACT AND REFLECT LOVE ALL AROUND.

Macro Economic News 13 Dec 2018

 

Inflation remains muted even though unemployment has fallen to a near 50-year low and economic growth in 2018 was among the fastest in this expansion. The European Central Bank is nearing a landmark decision to wind down its $3 trillion bond-buying program, closing a chapter on a policy the U.S. used to help restore its growth but one that had mixed results in Europe. Almost half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a recession will strike the U.S. economy by the end of 2019, with the tight labor market and growing trade tensions driving economic jitters among corporate America.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Theresa May wins vote of confidence

[I]  Saudi crown prince’s inner circle vulnerable to shake-up

[I]  French budget position not like Italy’s, Brussels says

[I]  Turkey risks US clash over Kurdish militants in Syria

[I]  Draghi set to guide ECB gently through the QE exit

[I]  Hungary tightens control of judiciary with new court system

[I]  US inflation cools in November as energy costs fall

[I]  White House spat signals bumpy road to bipartisanship

[I]  Spain’s mid-sized banks in merger talks

[I]  Central banks ignore climate risks at their peril

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI to consult with government, focus on bank sector 

[I]  India's industrial output grows 8.1 percent in October 

[I]  November core consumer inflation at 5.7 percent

[I]  Global Markets: Asian shares, sterling up on pause in Brexit, trade fears 

[I]  U.S. yield curve to invert in 2019, recession to follow: Reuters poll

[I]  British PM May survives party confidence vote but Brexit deal still teetering

[I]  Canada warns U.S. not to politicise extradition cases

[I]  A 'very uncivil war': Conservatives on the brink over Brexit 

[I]  November retail inflation falls to 17-month low in boost for Das 

[I]  U.S. consumer prices flat; underlying inflation firm

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Brexit Keeps Bruising the British Housing Market

[I]  China Orders Up to 2 Million Tons of U.S. Soy, Council Says

[I]  Brazil’s President-Elect Questions Paris Climate Deal Again

[I]  Ditching the U.S. Dollar Emerges as a Popular Call for 2019

[I]  National Debt Under Trump Is Surging at Its Fastest Pace Since 2012

[I]  Pound Maintains Advance as U.K.’s May Survives Confidence Vote

[I]  What to Expect From the Philippines’ Rate Decision

[I]  Saudi Politics, Oil and Proxy Wars: Mideast Market Risks in 2019

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Prices Flat in November, Posing Dilemma for Fed

[I]  ECB Stimulus’s Mixed Legacy: Economic Success, Political Fiasco

[I]  China Prepares to Increase Access for Foreign Companies

[I]  China Moves to Address U.S. Economic Concerns

[I]  Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year

[I]  The Loneliest Generation: Americans, More Than Ever, Are Aging Alone

[I]  Europe, Japan Trade Deal Will Launch With 600 Million Customers

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Autonomy is important, but so is accountability: Shaktikanta Das

[I]  Mutual funds get SEBI nod for side-pocketing

[I]  Retail inflation contracts to 2.3% in Nov; industrial output zooms to 8.1% in Oct

[I]  UK Govt slammed for U-turn on suspension of ‘golden’ visa scheme for super wealthy

[I]  Govt to raise health spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2025: PM

[I]  India rejects EU’s suggestion not to re-test imported steel

[I]  Heavy rain forecast for TN, South AP coasts this weekend

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  ISRO to launch comm satellite GSAT-7A on Dec 19

[I]  Sebi makes life easy for MFs, FPIs

[I]  Modi seen forgiving farm loans as he seeks to win back rural voters

[I]  Companies vanishing act on GST invites taxmen

[I]  GST evasion worth Rs 12,000 crore detected between April-November

[I]  FIEO urges new RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das to ensure smooth flow of credit to exporters

[I]  US Commerce Secretary to visit India in February for commercial dialogue

[I]  ADB retains India FY19 growth forecast at 7.3% despite downside risks

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt planning IPOs for two rail PSUs by March-end to meet divestment target

[I]  RBI board meet on Dec 14 to focus on liquidity in financial system

[I]  Advance rulings system under GST will take time to resolve, says CBIC

[I]  Isro to launch GSAT-7A communication satellite for IAF, Army on Dec 19

[I]  Sugar package purely domestic issue, not distorted global trade: Govt

[I]  Sebi allows segregation of distressed assets by mutual funds

[I]  India's per capita media consumption grows to 4.6 hours/day in 2018: Report

[I]  Bigger VCs in India have shifted focus to later-stage investments: Report

[I]  India to increase public health spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2025: PM

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10828; USDINR DGCX: 71.9350;  DJIA Mini: 24601;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6874;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21724;  EUR-USD: 1.1367; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.39;  Gold (Spot): 1245            

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

13 Dec 2018