ONE MORE TIME, COURAGE THE MIND, INSPIRE THE SOUL. WISHING A SUPERB SATURDAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 07 Mar 2020

 

Financial markets and economic forecasters are warning of rising risks for U.S. and world economies, which were picking up before the novel coronavirus spread from China around the globe. The Trump administration has granted exclusions from import tariffs for more than 100 medical items imported from China, including face masks, examination gloves and sanitizing wipes. US Employers added 273,000 jobs in February and the jobless rate was 3.5%, but the epidemic threatens to trigger a sharp pullback in hiring after the labor market showed signs of picking up earlier this year. The Federal Reserve has begun holding dollars it receives from Asia before recirculating them amid concerns. Greenspan can’t rule out negative rates on 30-Year U.S. bonds whereas White House eyes ‘micro approach’ to stimulus ruling out large-scale economic response to virus-related shocks while China’s central bank also resists large-scale coronavirus stimulus despite batters trade and business in China Jan-Feb resulting tumbling exports and slowing imports. High interest rates give Mexico room for stimulus while G-20 pledges ‘Further Actions’ to aid economies.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  White House eyes ‘micro approach’ to stimulus

[I]  Trump adviser rules out large-scale economic response to virus-related shocks

[I]  European Commission warns against mask export ban

[I]  China’s central bank resists large-scale coronavirus stimulus

[I]  Policymakers unmoved by US Fed’s surprise rate cut, preferring tailored measures

[I]  UK aerospace industry warns of risk from leaving EU agency

[I]  Calls grow louder for full overhaul of UK property tax

[I]  Stamp duty has been fiscal weapon but whole regime deemed too complicated

 

REUTERS

[I]  Coronavirus infects 100,000-plus worldwide, 21 cases found on ship off San Francisco

[I]  China Jan-Feb exports tumble, imports slow as coronavirus batters trade and business

[I]  High interest rates give Mexico room for stimulus on coronavirus: official

[I]  Once unthinkable, negative Treasury yields enter the realm of possibility

[I]  Sleeping Beauty: How suspect gold reached top brands

[I]  Rear-view mirror: U.S. hiring boomed in February but coronavirus risks job cuts in future

[I]  Silk roadblock: coronavirus exposes Nigeria's reliance on China

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Jobs Data Means Little to Stock Market That Only Cares About Coronavirus

[I]  Wall Street Worries About Risk Running Amok With Traders at Home

[I]  Treasury Rally Was So Intense CME Halted 30-Year Futures Trading

[I]  India Seeks Bids to Privatize Refiner, Keeps State Players Out

[I]  China’s Exports Slump as Virus Shutdown Slashes Trade, Demand

[I]  G-20 Pledges ‘Further Actions’ to Aid Economies Amid Virus

[I]  Brazil’s Central Bank Is Propping Up the World’s Worst Currency

[I]  Greenspan Can’t Rule Out Negative Rates on 30-Year U.S. Bonds

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Risk Rises for U.S., Global Economies

[I]  Coronavirus Spread Could Halt Robust U.S. Job Gains

[I]  Global Viral Outbreaks, Once Rare, Will Become More Common

[I]  Fed Stores Dollars Arriving From Asia as Coronavirus Precaution

[I]  U.S. Trade Officials Grant Tariff Relief for Face Masks, Medical Equipment

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Trade impact of Coronavirus for India estimated at $348 mn: UN report

[I]  India Inc in preventive mode: Issues travel advisories, cautions against infection

[I]  Govt reconstitutes platform for disaster risk reduction

[I]  Parliamentary panel backs EC’s Aadhaar, poll roll linkage pitch

[I]  World food prices dipped in Feb as virus hit demand: FAO

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How Donald Trump may be seeing India

[I]  Forex reserve hits lifetime high of $481.54 billion

[I]  Maha budget gives big boost to infra with Rs 30,000-cr outlay

[I]  Fundamentals of Indian economy strong, policies are clear: PM Modi

[I]  Now, registration for EPFO, ESIC to be done on corporate ministry portal

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Make GSTN portal efficient for tax payers: Finance ministry to Infosys

[I]  Cash usage now at pre-demonetisation levels: CMS Info Systems report

[I]  House panel concerned over key govt vacancies, Rs 9 trn under tax disputes

[I]  Maharashtra budget allocates Rs 7,000 crore for farm loan waiver scheme

[I]  ADB says global GDP may lose $77 bn-$347 bn due to Coronavirus outbreak

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Mar 2020

BLESSED ARE YOU, WE AND EVERYONE, WITH GRACE PEACE AND LOVE. WISHING A CARING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 06 Mar 2020

 

India is among the 15 most affected economies due to the coronavirus epidemic and slow down in production in China. The FED half-point rate cut and market jitters are focusing attention on potential government measures to soften the economic impact. Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level on record. Central bank officials opted for a deep cut to its benchmark interest rate because they judged that downside economic risks outweighed any worries about exacerbating existing financial vulnerabilities. Concerns about the epidemic clouded the outlook in February for U.S. businesses in service industries, posing a new risk to economic growth. U.S. factory orders fall more than expected in January while treasury 30-year bond yield falls below 1.5% for first time and investors withdraw most cash from U.S. credit funds in a decade. Safety trade falls apart in market unhinged by spread of virus while Bank of Canada mulled rate cut before virus risk escalated. EPFO in India cuts rate on employee provident fund to 7-year low of 8.5% for FY20. Reuter poll finds BOJ will ease policy in March and another report finds India’s ultra-wealthy individuals set to double by 2024.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US official hits out at hoarding of coronavirus medical supplies

[I]  US voters turn their backs on female candidates

[I]  Fed’s lone move bucks history of collaboration

[I]  US to back Ethiopian reform with $5bn investment

[I]  EU’s climate law faces criticism on all fronts

 

REUTERS

[I]  India shuts Delhi schools, imposes new travel restrictions over coronavirus

[I]  Trump says U.S. economy could take hit from coronavirus

[I]  Fed's Williams says central bank will respond as appropriate to address coronavirus risks

[I]  BOJ to ease policy in March as coronavirus hits growth: Reuters poll

[I]  Australia closes first school after pupil contracts coronavirus

[I]  Fed's Kaplan says wise to act 'boldly' on monetary policy in face of threats

[I]  U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; labor market weathering coronavirus for now

[I]  U.S. factory orders fall more than expected in January

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Treasury 30-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 1.5% for First Time

[I]  Central Banks Just Starting Virus Fight With Record Low Rates

[I]  Fed’s Kaplan Signals Virus Spread May Be Key to Another Rate Cut

[I]  Central-Bank Collaboration on Virus Is as High as Poloz Has Seen

[I]  India’s State Cotton Trader Ups Buying to Help Virus-Hit Farmers

[I]  Investors Withdraw Most Cash From U.S. Credit Funds in a Decade

[I]  Safety Trade Falls Apart in Market Unhinged by Spread of Virus

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Focus May Shift to Government Spending to Blunt Coronavirus Impact

[I]  Analysis: Why the Fed Is Likely to Cut Again

[I]  Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low, but Coronavirus May Deter Buyers

[I]  Biden Tax Plan Targeting Top Earners Would Raise $4 Trillion in 10 Years, Study Says

[I]  U.S. to Make 35,000 Additional Seasonal Worker H-2B Visas Available

[I]  Fed Retools Capital Rules for Largest U.S. Banks

[I]  Fed’s Williams Says Rate Cut Will Provide ‘Meaningful Support' to Economy

[I]  Bank of Canada Mulled Rate Cut Before Virus Risk Escalated

[I]  U.S. Service Industries Feel Weight of Coronoavirus Uncertainty

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Trade impact of Coronavirus for India estimated at $348 mn: UN report

[I]  India Inc in preventive mode: Issues travel advisories, cautions against infection

[I]  Indian manufacturing firms rank big data, predictive analytics as top investment priority: EY

[I]  India’s ultra-wealthy individuals set to double by 2024: Report

[I]  India blocks first request by EU at WTO for dispute panel on ICT import duties

[I]  Now companies in the red can pay their independent directors well

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's super rich list to almost double in 5 yrs

[I]  EPF rate lowered, here's how it affects you

[I]  Importers rushing for cover, markets looking for rate cut

[I]  View: Govt's move to have a charter of taxpayers is welcome but it needs strong execution

[I]  India to integrate central public procurement portal with government e-marketplace

[I]  Das says RBI to be ‘proactive’ in tackling virus threat

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Public sector banks announce share-swap ratios ahead of April 1 merger

[I]  Airfares to UK, US get cheaper by 30% amid coronavirus outbreak

[I]  Maharashtra's economy to grow at 5.7% in 2019-20: Economic survey

[I]  EPFO cuts rate on employee provident fund to 7-year low of 8.5% for FY20

[I]  EPFO reduces interest rate on employee provident fund to 8.5%

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10880;  USDINR DGCX: 74.2125;  DJIA Mini: 25827;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6582;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20653;  EUR-USD: 1.1139; Crude Oil (WTI): 45.50;  Gold (Spot): 1669

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
06 Mar 2020

ENVIRONMENT IS NATURALLY BLESSING US WITH HUMBLING GREATNESS. WISHING AN OVERWHELMING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Mar 2020

 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the government is working intensively to ensure meaningful intervention, if needed, to deal with the impact of unfolding coronavirus crisis on the country while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is considering using unconventional policy tools to spur lending, amid fears of derailing any revival of economic growth. India is pushing state-run banks to approve new loans amounting to 500-600 billion rupees ($6.8-8.2 billion) by the end of March as authorities seek to shore up a stuttering economy. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members struggled to win support from Russia to join them in additional oil output cuts in a bid to prop up prices which have tumbled by a fifth this year. The Federal Reserve’s surprise decision this week puts the European Central Bank under pressure to act as the eurozone’s already lethargic economy creaks under the spreading epidemic. IMF sees ‘More Dire’ global economic possibilities on Virus and it sets aside $50bn for coronavirus-hit countries while virus exposes cracks in south-east Asia economies. Brazil cuts growth estimates. U.S. services sector growth accelerates; private payrolls rise solidly wile Indian services PMI in February jumps to 7-year high of 57.5 although global economy is gripped by rare twin supply-demand shock. 10-yr bond yields at 39-month low as markets brace for RBI action and ironically India, China overtake South Africa in economic crime.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  IMF sets aside $50bn for coronavirus-hit countries

[I]  Fed cut piles pressure on Lagarde to take action

[I]  Banks test disaster recovery sites on coronavirus fears

[I]  Virus exposes cracks in south-east Asia economies 

[I]  Brazil cuts growth estimates amid coronavirus fears

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. senator's trade advice to EU: Keep calm and put agriculture on the table

[I]  EU green deal is a 1 trillion euro diversion

[I]  Supreme Court strikes down RBI banking ban on cryptocurrency

[I]  OPEC struggles to win Russian backing for big oil cut amid coronavirus

[I]  India pushes state banks to boost lending as coronavirus fears grow - sources

[I]  Exclusive: RBI may use unconventional tools to combat coronavirus impact, sources say

[I]  In next recession, Fed needs upfront promises, former staffers say

[I]  U.S. services sector growth accelerates; private payrolls rise solidly

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  IMF Sees ‘More Dire’ Global Economic Possibilities on Virus

[I]  Yuan Recoups All Losses Since Virus Outbreak First Shut Economy

[I]  Too Much Money: Australian Pension Giant’s $11 Billion ‘Problem’

[I]  Blackstone Leans Forward Into India, Its ‘Strongest Performer’

[I]  India’s $476 Billion Firepower May Arrest Rupee’s ‘Panic’ Drop

[I]  Global Economy Is Gripped by Rare Twin Supply-Demand Shock

[I]  U.S. Delays Changes to Economic-Data Releases Beyond Next Week

[I]  China Stimulus Shot, BOE Pressure, U.S. Emergency Bill: Eco Day

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Analysis: Why the Fed Is Likely to Cut Again

[I]  Fed Retools Capital Rules for Largest U.S. Banks

[I]  U.S. Service Industries Feel Weight of Coronoavirus Uncertainty

[I]  U.S. Delays New Data-Release Policy, in Win for Media Firms

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Tells Bloomberg TV March Rate Cut Isn’t a Done Deal

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Adds 183,000 Jobs in February

[I]  Fed Rate Cut Puts ECB in Hot Seat

[I]  Fed’s $100 Billion Repo Intervention Falls Short Of Bank Demand

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt ready to intervene if needed: FinMin

[I]  Central Government rolls out LLP settlement scheme

[I]  Services PMI in February jumps to 7-year high of 57.5

[I]  ‘Specialisation’, key to become export powerhouse: CEA

[I]  Govt gives partial relief to independent directors from prosecution

[I]  India, China overtake South Africa in economic crime

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India Inc in emergency mode as virus spreads

[I]  IMD predicts unseasonal rain and hailstorms in North India

[I]  Coronavirus fall to have minimal impact on India's GDP: Report

[I]  Coronavirus: MNCs’ China de-risk plan a shot in the arm for India

[I]  Government approves more amendments to companies law

[I]  Government to bring settlement scheme for LLPs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Coronavirus: India Inc steps up act to contain crisis as tally reaches 29

[I]  Cabinet nod for foreign listing of firms, decriminalising offences

[I]  PMI: India's services sector growth hits 7-year high of 57.5 in February

[I]  Europe 'panicking' over India's pharma export curbs: Industry body

[I]  10-yr bond yields at 39-month low as markets brace for RBI action

[I]  Overseas listings dry up as Indian companies eye domestic market

 

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11247;  USDINR DGCX: 73.8525;  DJIA Mini: 27090;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6816;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21295;  EUR-USD: 1.1139; Crude Oil (WTI): 47.32;  Gold (Spot): 1640

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
05 Mar 2020