WISHING THIS WEEKEND BE FULL OF ADVENTURE THROUGH RAIN

Macro Economic News 09 Jun 2018

 

Trump to leave G-7 early to meet Kim, discussions on a Deutsche Bank–Commerzbank deal, and emerging-market woes continue. The bad times continue for emerging-market currencies. South Africa’s rand breaching 13 to the dollar for the first time since December as investors bet weak growth will not allow the country’s central bank to follow EM peers in hiking rates. In Brazil, the real saw more declines yesterday with the selloff increasing pressure on policy makers to do more to support the currency. There was some good news for Argentina, which secured a $50 billion stand-by arrangement from the International Monetary Fund to help restore investor confidence.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Donald Trump calls on G7 to readmit Russia as he lashes out at allies

[I]  Economists reject Trump claims of unfair trade system

[I]  China and Japan open hotline to prevent military clash

[I]  Argentine investors welcome $50bn IMF rescue deal

[I]  Veterans of bloody Korean conflict await peace treaty

[I]  Media crackdown heightens fears for Pakistan’s democracy

[I]  UN sanctions target alleged Libya people traffickers

[I]  Recruiters look abroad to offset Brexit jitters

 

REUTERS

[I]  India mulls company to deal with banks' stressed assets

[I]  For high-stakes summit with Kim, Trump trusts his gut over note cards

[I]  U.S., EU take small step on trade, but no breakthrough at G7 summit

[I]  Take Five: World markets themes for the week ahead

[I]  France's Macron sees way forward on trade, Trump says working together

[I]  EU Commission head offers joint EU-U.S. trade assessment in tariff dispute

[I]  Global Economy: Fed, ECB to tighten policy in tandem

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Back Off Oil as Saudis Keep Market on Its Toes

[I]  Brazil Central Bank Finally Halts Its Currency's Plunge – For Now

[I]  Handful of U.S. Stocks Saw Split-Second Spikes Before Reversing

[I]  Money Markets See Biggest Inflows Since 2013 in Run for Cash

[I]  You Don’t Have to Own Crypto to Make Money Off of It

[I]  World’s Big-Three Central Banks to Meet With Different Agendas

[I]  German Industry’s Bad News Just Keeps Coming

[I]  This Week in EM: Brazil Boosts Currency Defense, While India and Turkey Hike Rates

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback

[I]  WSJ Survey: Fed Will Move to Rein In the Economy

[I]  China’s Trade Surplus Narrows—but Not With the U.S.

[I]  ‘Get Moving’: How Trump Ratcheted Up the China Trade Feud

[I]  Trump Feuds With France, Canada Before Summit

[I]  Was the Gig Economy Overblown?

[I]  Why U.S. Prime-Age Workforce Participation Lags Behind Other Nations

[I]  Real Time Economics: The Gig Economy is a Dud; the G-7 Might See Fireworks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Bankers’ panel to study setting up of reconstruction firm for NPA clean-up

[I]  Groundwater in 16 States found to be contaminated by uranium

[I]  ‘Rising healthcare costs push 5.5 crore Indians below poverty line’

[I]  Black money: 2.25 lakh more shell firms to be de-registered

[I]  FDI inflow increased to $61.96 b in 2017-18

[I]  With Finance Ministry not on board, KUSUM solar pump scheme a non-starter

[I]  Council to discuss bringing natural gas under GST

[I]  Timely rain brews good prospects for coffee crop

[I]  Insolvency regulator IBBI moves to empanel resolution professionals

[I]  Maharashtra set to rope in 500 fintech firms to boost finance, banking sectors

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $0.59 billion to $412.23 billion

[I]  Australia, New Zealand dollars ease but set for weekly gains

[I]  What triggered bond yield crossing 8% mark since Dec 2014

[I]  Domestic cotton crop output is expected to moderate to 35 million bales in Cotton Year 2019

[I]  Economic growth may cross 8% in next 2 years: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  Priority sector lending limit hike may boost sale of budget homes

[I]  PSU banks to set up mechanism to tackle NPA, says Piyush Goyal

[I]  FDI violation complaints are forwarded to RBI, ED: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  India must address banking sector crisis to support investment, inclusive growth agenda: IMF

[I]  Rationalisation of GST on the cards: MoS finance

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  CCI may soon lose adjudicating powers, authority to pass orders & penalise

[I]  Google pledges not to use AI for weapons, surveillance

[I]  RBI policy impact: 10-year gilt yield crosses 8%, rupee falls

[I]  Banks fund agricultural technology companies for rural lending

[I]  FII lobby sets out best practices to prevent money laundering

[I]  MF equity flows below one-year average for third straight month

[I]  Draft bill proposes steep Rs 10-mn fine, 3-year jail for privacy violations

[I]  G7 leaders divided on trade; Trump attacks EU, Canada amid backlash

[I]  Little impact of Trump's tariff barrier on China's trade surplus

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 Jun 2018

WISHING YOU A GLORIFIED DAY AHEAD

Macro Economic News 08 Jun 2018

 

Treasury yields  spiked lower Thursday amid a rout in emerging markets, with Brazil’s real tumbling in a third day of sharp declines. President Donald Trump said he may sign an accord to formally end the Korean War with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at their June 12 meeting, and raised the possibility of later hosting Kim at the White House.  China’s efforts to connect the world’s third-biggest bond market with the international financial system are hitting dual headwinds -- a climb in global borrowing costs, and the country’s own campaign to reduce financial leverage. The dynamics have contributed to defaults by 12 bond issuers in 2018.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Turkey raises interest rates to stabilise lira ahead of polls

[I]  Political uncertainty drives Brazilian real to 2-year lows

[I]  EU opens door to UK participation in €100bn research programme

[I]  Ukraine approves corruption court to meet IMF demand

[I]  Trade tension and rising rates hit Asian investment banking fees

 

REUTERS

[I]  Trump attacks EU and Canada on trade amid backlash ahead of G7 summit

[I]  U.S. pork exports the lead farm risk in trade disputes: official

[I]  Australia's planned foreign interference laws softened, but seen further straining China ties

[I]  Oil prices rise on ongoing Venezuelan supply trouble

[I]  Argentina clinches $50 billion IMF financing deal, to speed up cuts

[I]  BoE to raise rates in August so long as economy over its slump

[I]  Revised data shows Japan's economy still at risk of recession

[I]  Jordan's next PM says to withdraw tax bill

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  World's Big-Three Central Banks to Meet With Different Agendas

[I]  Firms Look to Robots, AI to Plug U.K. Skilled Worker Shortages

[I]  Argentina Secures $50 Billion in IMF Backing to Bolster Economy

[I]  Brazil Joins Turkey With Stepped-Up Currency Defenses

[I]  China's $11 Trillion Bond Market Tested by Rising Defaults

[I]  Hot U.S. Economic Growth Is Burning Companies That Can't Keep Up

[I]  A Guide to China’s $10 Trillion Shadow-Banking Maze

[I]  Thailand Says It May Skirt Global Monetary Tightening Until 2019

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback

[I]  WSJ Survey: Fed Will Move to Rein In the Economy

[I]  Trump Feuds With France, Canada Before Summit

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

[I]  Lawmakers Take Aim at Chinese Tech Firms

[I]  Americans’ Wealth Surpasses $100 Trillion

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Targets for ethanol-blended petrol may be missed again

[I]  Digital transactions up for some banks...

[I]  Stimulus does not address structural problems of sugar sector: Crisil

[I]  Auditing regulator NFRA likely by Sept

[I]  FinMin mulls ways to boost biz correspondent network

[I]  Bank recap insufficient for credit growth: Moody’s

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India, Iran to begin trade talks as US sanctions loom

[I]  Three looming crises that may rattle the oil market

[I]  Euro recovers on rising bets ECB may roll back stimulus

[I]  RBI's tightens rules around state bond valuations in blow to banks

[I]  India’s 10-year yield at 3-year high; will it harden more?

[I]  As US sanctions loom, India and Iran to begin trade talks

[I]  Labour Ministry puts on hold quarterly jobs survey

[I]  RBI amends Gold Monetisation Scheme to make it more attractive

[I]  FM Goyal to meet state-run banks' heads tomorrow to discuss merger: Reports

[I]  Businesses not Under GST to get 180 Days to pay back their loans

[I]  Global FDI Inflows fell 23% in 2017: Report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Finance Ministry pulls up officers of I-T department for poor GST mop-up

[I]  Petrol, diesel to be under GST soon, says Dharmendra Pradhan

[I]  RBI monetary policy: Finance Ministry says MTM losses for banks will rise

[I]  RBI policy: Extra haircut on rated bonds to put poorly run states in a spot

[I]  Monetary policy review: No takers for RBI's move on small finance banks

 

MARKETS (8:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10709;  USDINR DGCX: 67.5575;  DJIA Mini: 25282;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7684;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22800;  EUR-USD: 1.1799; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.05;  Gold (Spot): 1296          

Best Regards, ARBIND

08 Jun 2018

WISH HAPPINESS EXPANDS AND TOUCHES EVERYONE’S LIFE

Macro Economic News 07 Jun 2018

 

India surprises to join EM peers including Indonesia, Turkey and Argentina in raising interest rates. The G-7 summit is set to kick off amid a `family quarrel,’ and the S&P 500 is nearing record territory once again. China’s banks have managed to sidestep the severest curbs on their  shadow banking activity. NCDs issued by banks grew by 1.5 trillion yuan ($235 billion) in 2017, offsetting the 1.3 trillion yuan decline in interbank borrowing, according to UBS.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Markets hit as ECB officials strike upbeat note

[I]  Bank cartel charges underline Australia’s get-tough approach

[I]  South Korea warned of more cyber attacks ahead of summit

[I]  Trade war talk drives down cross-border investment

[I]  EU urges US to make exemptions from Iran sanctions

[I]  India raises interest rates for first time since 2014

[I]  EU telecoms overhaul labelled ‘missed opportunity’ by industry

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI raises key policy rate, maintains 'neutral' stance

[I]  RBI says it will remain cautious to manage growth, inflation

[I]  India unveils measures to help sugar mills, woo farmers

[I]  Singapore to restrict airspace during U.S.-North Korea summit

[I]  Republicans in tight U.S. House races feel heat from Mexican tariffs

[I]  Euro recovers on rising bets ECB may roll back stimulus

[I]  China allows domestic fundraising for overseas-listed firms

[I]  Singapore's 'orchid diplomacy'

[I]  Merkel expects difficult G7, will seek out Trump for talks

[I]  Exclusive: Jordan to push IMF to slow reforms after protests, officials say

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Publishes Final Rules for Big Tech Listings Trial Program

[I]  Malaysian Governor Departure Adds Uncertainty to Economy in Flux

[I]  Foreigners Are Snapping Up New Zealand Homes While They Can

[I]  Third of China's Vehicle Makers Risk Extinction, BAIC's Xu Says

[I]  China's Oil Purchases From U.S. Double Amid $25 Billion Goal

[I]  Trade War Yanked $1.25 Trillion From U.S. Stocks, JPMorgan Says

[I]  El-Erian Warns Brazil May Be Next Emerging-Market Domino to Fall

[I]  China Banks Have Yet to Feel the Worst of Deleveraging Pain, UBS Says

[I]  Here's Why Australia's U.S.-Beating Jobs Growth Is Falling Flat

[I]  Foreigners Are Snapping Up New Zealand Homes While They Can

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  A Costly, Deadly Obsession With Coal

[I]  American Job Openings Now Outnumber the Jobless

[I]  Record Oil Exports Help Cut U.S. Trade Gap

[I]  Canada’s Trade Deficit Narrowed In April

[I]  U.S. Productivity Rose Less Than Expected in First Quarter

[I]  NATO Allies Bristle Over U.S. Tariffs Pinned to Security Threats

[I]  Mexico, Canada Add to Nations Striking Fear in U.S. Farmers

[I]  ECB Official Indicates Next Meeting Is Key to Bond-Buying Decision

[I]  Western Cities Want to Slow Flood of Chinese Home Buying. Nothing Works.

[I]  Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Growth, inflation outlook prompts 25-bps repo rate hike, first in 4 years

[I]  Fast-track promotions, higher pay in offing for ‘star’ PSU staff

[I]  RBI to open payment space to more players

[I]  Cabinet clears norms for quick closure of sick PSUs

[I]  Centre undecided on inviting bids for Round 3 of UDAN

[I]  India Inc using social media for better customer-connect

[I]  Daily fuel pricing: No question of going back, says Pradhan

[I]  50% of start-ups coming from tier II, III cities: Modi

[I]  Mango exports may halve on climate, insect woes

[I]  Depression brewing in Bay to drive monsoon into peak phase

[I]  RBI initiates work on public credit registry

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  What is RBI's reading of composition shift in inflation?

[I]  Three Indian cities among top 10 for GDP risk from terrorism: Lloyd's India's City Risk Index

[I]  World Bank forecasts 7.3 per cent growth for India; making it fastest growing economy

[I]  RBI cites rising crude as risk to inflation, hikes projection for FY19

[I]  From cabbages to oil, inflation has many fathers

[I]  Few big players dominating digital payments is a risk, warns RBI

[I]  Government promulgates IBC ordinance; home buyers to be treated as financial creditors

[I]  Government clears revised norms for time-bound closure of sick PSUs

[I]  US tax reforms may impact Indian business groups

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  MCA quizzes auditors who quit assignments; explanations sought in 15 cases

[I]  Even one homebuyer can now drag errant builder to NCLT: Govt ordinance

[I]  RBI policy review: Investment recovery positive, headwinds remain

[I]  Retrospective benefits on gratuity not on the cards, says NDA govt

[I]  No rollback of decontrol in diesel and petrol pricing: Dharmendra Pradhan

[I]  FDI inflows to India decline by $4 bn in 2017: World Investment Report

[I]  RBI monetary policy review: States may need to get their loans rated

 

MARKETS (8:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10738;  USDINR DGCX: 67.0150;  DJIA Mini: 25174;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7733;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22840;  EUR-USD: 1.1791; Crude Oil (WTI): 65.00;  Gold (Spot): 1297          

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Jun 2018