NOTHING WILL COME IN BETWEEN THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXCEPT THE HAPPINESS. WISHING AN  AMAZING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Aug 2019

 

India's population growth is falling. Economic stimulus decision is unlikely before Monday: government source. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) slashed its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.2% in the financial year ending next March from a previous estimate of 6.5%, warning it would be tough for authorities to engineer a turnaround. Trade within Eurozone falls at fastest pace in six years. The unemployment rate for Americans between ages 16 and 24 ticked down to the lowest such rate since July 1966. U.S. household sentiment dropped to a seven-month low in August, as consumers took fright from the implications of trade uncertainties and the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump’s interest in buying Greenland stuns Denmark

[I]  Hong Kong protesters play dangerous endgame with China

[I]  Germany flags ‘high probability’ of no-deal Brexit

[I]  Germans devastated by grim future of fairytale forests

[I]  Trade within eurozone falls at fastest pace in six years

[I]  Race to the bottom: the investor exploring Earth’s deepest places

 

REUTERS

[I]  Economic stimulus decision unlikely before Monday: government source

[I]  U.S.'s North Korea envoy to visit Japan, South Korea next week

[I]  U.S. removes some Chinese furniture, modems from planned 10% tariffs

[I]  ANZ slashes forecast for India's GDP growth in 2019/20 to 6.2%

[I]  Trump held conference call with big bank CEOs amid market turmoil: source

[I]  Exclusive: Fed's Mester weighing argument for U.S. rate cut

[I]  Veteran UK politicians asked to lead potential anti-Brexit government

[I]  U.S. housing market mired in weakness; consumer sentiment ebbs

[I]  Global rate cuts mark broadest policy shift since crisis: Fitch

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Burned Again, Argentina’s One-Time Bulls Sift Through the Ashes

[I]  Volcker Revamp Could Free Banks to Boost Investment Fund Stakes

[I]  Soft Commodities Are on Their Biggest Losing Streak in Two Years

[I]  Bank of America Says ‘No Way’ to Negative Municipal-Bond Yields

[I]  Argentina Slammed by Double Downgrade at End of Traumatic Week

[I]  Property Widens Its Lead Over ‘Big Government’ as U.S. GDP’s Top Driver

[I]  Economic Concerns Send U.S. Consumer Mood to Seven-Month Low

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Summer Youth Unemployment Rate Falls to Half-Century Low

[I]  Trade Jitters Dent Consumer Sentiment

[I]  Despite Reprieve, New Tariffs Will Hit Wide Range of Consumer Goods

[I]  U.S. Housing Starts Decreased 4.0% in July

[I]  U.S. Shoppers Splurge in Face of Global Headwinds

[I]  Industrial Sector Struggled in July

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  TRAI releases paper to re-look caps on discounts offered by broadcasters on bouquets

[I]  New scheme will fund cutting-edge research

[I]  Stimulus package will be announced at the right time: Sitharaman

[I]  Tamil Nadu: New industrial policy to suit GST regime on the anvil

[I]  Heavy rain may batter Rajasthan for two more days

[I]  Premium-economy and business-class fly high even as aviation sector slows

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Caught in the (Companies) Act? Don't fret

[I]  Crisis in NBFCs could bite Indian realty harder

[I]  IT firms are going all out to stop attrition

[I]  Forex reserve hits fresh lifetime high of $430.57 billion

[I]  Ways to profit from $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt

[I]  Finance Ministry to cut tax on prize post PM nudge

[I]  Finance Ministry asks PSBs to seek ideas from branches for achieving $5-trn economy

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Now, start-ups can issue shares with differential voting rights

[I]  PSBs may ease credit access to automobile dealers to boost sales

[I]  Over 80 payments apps face an uphill battle to turn the country cashless

[I]  Govt adopts a new approach to bring reforms in public sector banks

[I]  India's population growth falling already: Explained in four charts

[I]  Rain recovery encouraging at all-India level: CRISIL Drip index

[I]  DTC task force likely to submit report to Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

17 Aug 2019

JUST A SMALL WISH; FRIDAY SHOULD NOT COME IN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WISHING AN AMUSING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Aug 2019

 

India announces to invest Rs 100 lakh cr in infrastructure in coming years. Sentiment towards most Asian currencies worsened in the past two weeks, a Reuters poll showed, as a bitter tariff war between the world's two biggest economies sent investors scurrying to safer assets, raised doubts about growth and rang recession alarms. The European Central Bank will announce a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should overshoot investors’ expectations. US 30-year bond yield falls below 2% for first time. 'Crazy inverted yield curve' vexes Fed, with no clear resolution. Norway keeps rates on hold amid economic uncertainty. New Zealand's 10-Year Yield Slides Below 1% for First Time.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US 30-year bond yield falls below 2% for first time

[I]  Overseas earnings trigger Trump tussle with Central America

[I]  China vows ‘necessary countermeasures’ against new US tariffs

[I]  South Korea’s president seeks Korean unification by 2045

[I]  India faces WTO investigation over sugar subsidies

[I]  Norway keeps rates on hold amid economic uncertainty

[I]  As the Germans say, it doesn’t get shabbier than this

 

REUTERS

[I]  Not-so-golden fleece: Australian wool prices plunge amid Sino-U.S. trade war

[I]  Mexico's central bank cuts rates for first time in 5 years as economy sputters

[I]  'Crazy inverted yield curve' vexes Fed, with no clear resolution

[I]  Trump says China talks 'productive'; Beijing vows tariff retaliation

[I]  Oil gains after strong U.S. retail sales help ease recession worries

[I]  Bears prey on most Asian currencies as growth fears rage

[I]  Strong U.S. retail sales ease gloom over economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Loses Status as U.S.’s Top Foreign Creditor to Japan

[I]  The $3.4 Trillion Haven Where Investors ‘Hide Out for a While’

[I]  China Preps Tariff Response as Trump Sees a Xi Call ‘Very Soon’

[I]  Powell Expected to Seek Another Cut Despite Strong Spending

[I]  What the Yield Curve Says About When the Next Recession Could Happen

[I]  Banks Announced Almost 50,000 Job Cuts This Year, Led by Europe

[I]  Goldman Cuts Growth Forecasts for Asia's Four ‘Tiger’ Economies

[I]  New Zealand's 10-Year Yield Slides Below 1% for First Time

[I]  Vietnam Investors Shrug Off U.S. Trade Threat in Favor of Growth

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Shoppers Splurge in Face of Global Headwinds

[I]  Warning Signs Point to a Global Slowdown

[I]  Industrial Sector Struggled in July

[I]  ECB Primes Big Bazooka for September

[I]  China Renews Vow to Retaliate Against Planned U.S. Tariffs

[I]  Trump Says Fed Should Cut Rates as Growth Concerns Jar Markets

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Says U.S. Economy Is Sound

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s seafood exports to EU to be hit after Vietnam-EU free trade pact

[I]  Government to invest Rs 100 lakh cr in infrastructure

[I]  US appeals against WTO ruling favouring India in renewables case

[I]  Exports of farm produce take a beating in Q1 due to weak demand

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  UNSC to meet on Kashmir at China's behest

[I]  How the business of movies is changing

[I]  IT biggies in India are betting big on AI

[I]  Yield inversion is coming to Asia as growth uncertainties spread

[I]  Direct payment system for grain farmers of Punjab, Haryana soon

[I]  Exports Surge 2.25% in July, trade deficit narrows to $13.43 billion

[I]  North eastern states witness over 30% growth in Apr-Jul GST collection

[I]  Textile companies seek tax incentives, DBT for farmers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  PM holds meet with Sitharaman and officials to weigh booster dose options

[I]  From auto to banking, grumble of slowdown is getting louder for India Inc

[I]  Reduction in use of chemical fertiliser needs a roadmap, say experts

[I]  Asset reconstruction companies, banks differ on cleaning up bad debts mess

[I]  NBFC-Microfinance institutions top in market share: Here're the details

[I]  Equity schemes in the red following poor show, regulatory changes

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10939;  USDINR DGCX: 71.5275;  DJIA Mini: 25720;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7102;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20400;  EUR-USD: 1.1100; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.15;  Gold (Spot): 1521

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 Aug 2019

CELEBRATE THE TRUE SPIRIT OF FREEDOM WITH ALL BROTHERS AND SISTERS. HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AND RAKSHA BANDHAN.

Macro Economic News 15 Aug 2019

 

India's July WPI inflation slows to more than two-year low as economy falters. India's July trade deficit narrows to $13.43 billion. When assumptions about how the world works are shattered, a global downturn is often the result. Signs pointing to a deepening global economic slowdown—and the risk of recession—are flashing more brightly as China and Germany, the world’s second- and fourth-largest economies, post figures showing sluggishness and U.S. stocks tumble. U.S. mortgage debt reached a record in the second quarter, exceeding its 2008 peak as the financial crisis unfolded. Fears rose of a spiralling economic slowdown in Europe and Asia after two industrial powerhouses, Germany and China, reported weak data.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump retreat on some tariffs raises scant hopes

[I]  Germany under pressure to relax fiscal rules

[I]  French unemployment fall eases pressure on Macron

[I]  Italian government on the brink — what happens next?

[I]  German economy contracts as global trade slowdown takes toll

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global stocks routed, oil sinks as bond markets flash recession warning

[I]  China's new home prices firm but momentum slows in some parts

[I]  Bankruptcy filings by U.S. energy producers pick up speed: law firm analysis

[I]  India's July trade deficit narrows to $13.43 billion

[I]  India's July WPI inflation slows to more than two-year low as economy falters

[I]  India's bond rally fizzles on government spending fears

[I]  Exclusive: China curbs gold imports as trade war heats up

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Bond Rally Charges On With 30-Year Treasury Yields Below 2%

[I]  China Traders Love Hong Kong's Sinking Stocks as Protests Rage

[I]  Indonesia’s Trillion-Dollar Economy Is About to Get a Reboot

[I]  Negative-Yielding Debt Hits Record $16 Trillion on Curve Fright

[I]  Hong Kong Faces New Threat as Chinese Companies Reconsider IPOs

[I]  China Home Price Growth Slowest in Five Months as Curbs Bite

[I]  RBA Warns on World, Hong Kong Fallout, Ban ‘Down Under’: Eco Day

[I]  Thailand Says Slowing Economy Dims Outlook for Minimum-Wage Hike

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Warning Signs Point to a Global Slowdown

[I]  As Global Order Crumbles, Risks of Recession Grow

[I]  Trump Says Fed Should Cut Rates as Growth Concerns Jar Markets

[I]  U.S. Retreat on New Tariffs Gives Beijing Breathing Room on Trade Talks

[I]  China’s Growth Struggles Mount Amid Prolonged Trade Battle

[I]  Mortgage Debt Hits Record, Eclipsing 2008 Peak

[I]  Poor Chinese and German Economic Data Fan Fears of Global Slowdown

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  All I-T Dept communication to have Document Identification Number

[I]  Panel favours ‘Green Channel’ for faster M&A approvals

[I]  Exports growth inches up 2.25 per cent in July

[I]  Heavy rains likely in North-West by weekend

[I]  Retail inflation eases marginally to 3.15% in July

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  What slowdown? Phones, white goods tell a different story

[I]  Cultural Integration Takes Lead in M&As

[I]  Pulses exporters seek sops, say this will check prices

[I]  Exports up 2.25 per cent in July; trade deficit narrows to four-month low

[I]  WPI inflation in July slips to 25-month low of 1.08 per cent on cheaper food items, fuel

[I]  Panel suggests automatic CCI approvals for deals under insolvency law

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Jalan committee finalises report on RBI reserves; board meet on Aug 23

[I]  Exports post marginal recovery in July; trade deficit narrows to $13.43 bn

[I]  Consumption of news online is steadily growing, reveals IRS data

[I]  UK bonds signal recession as inflation bedevils Bank of England's response

[I]  Amid slowing sales, carmakers fear fee hike will further dent demand

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
15 Aug 2019

ACCEPTANCE IS THE HAPPIEST AND PEACEFUL FORM OF LOVE. WISHING AN AUDACIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Aug 2019

 

Car sales in India hit lowest in 20 yrs as slump deepens. India’s retail inflation eased marginally in July to 3.15 per cent over the previous month. U.S. consumer prices rose at a robust pace in July on the back of higher prices for energy and most other goods and services, a possible sign that inflation is finding its footing after a weak start to the year. The U.S. will delay some tariffs against China that were scheduled to take effect Sept. 1.  U.S. mortgage debt reached a record in the second quarter, exceeding its 2008 peak as the financial crisis unfolded.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US to delay some tariffs on Chinese goods

[I]  Argentine peso falls sharply for a second day

[I]  Hong Kong investors dump stocks amid protests

[I]  Americans’ view of China sours as trade war rages

[I]  US consumer price inflation up 1.8 per cent in July

[I]  Germany confronts growing risk of economic slowdown

[I]  Investors smell an opportunity in ripe waste market

[I]  Indian car sales fall 31% as sector faces prolonged decline

 

REUTERS

[I]  China's property investment slows in July as Beijing tightens curbs

[I]  Australia wage growth stays tepid, bolster low for longer rate view

[I]  Australian consumer sentiment rebounds in August: survey

[I]  India July retail inflation stays low enough to allow a fifth rate cut

[I]  Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means

[I]  Explainer: How does negative rate policy work?

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Bows to Economic Fears in Move to Delay China Tariffs

[I]  Hong Kong Protests Sink Sentiment at Smaller Businesses

[I]  Fragile U.S. Rates Market Braces for Volatility From Everywhere

[I]  China Industrial Output Weakens to 17-Year Low as Economy Slows

[I]  Argentina Utility Stocks Face Gloomy Outlook as Downgrades Mount

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Inflation Picked Up in July

[I]  U.S. Retreats on Chinese Tariff Threats, Stocks Soar

[I]  Mortgage Debt Hits Record, Eclipsing 2008 Peak

[I]  U.S. Budget Gap Widens 27% in First 10 Months of Fiscal Year

[I]  Fed Considers New Tool for a Downturn

[I]  10% Tariffs Were Manageable. At 25%, Businesses Are Squirming.

[I]  Real Time Economics: New Tariffs to Have Bigger Impact on Women

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Auto industry pleads for urgent sops as sales see steepest fall in 19 years

[I]  FinMin kickstarts credit-support plan for NBFCs

[I]  Retail inflation at sub-4% for 12th month in a row

[I]  Retail inflation eases marginally to 3.15% in July

[I]  Make CSR spend tax-deductible, recommends panel

[I]  Passenger vehicles sales sink for ninth month in July

[I]  Bay to remain active, but rains may head North, East

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's slowdown-hit economy may soon get a booster shot

[I]  Govt is all set to open liquidity tap for NBFCs

[I]  Car sales lowest in 20 yrs as slump deepens

[I]  Rupee hits 6-month low of 71.40 against dollar, dives 62 paise

[I]  Yen near 7-month high vs dollar; Hong Kong, Argentina woes fuel risk aversion

[I]  India, Russia to boost ties to achieve $30 billion bilateral trade by 2025

[I]  CPI inflation marginally eases to 3.15% in July

[I]  Centre working on stimulus package to check economic slowdown

[I]  Govt won’t go ahead with new CSR rules

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  'Rock bottom': Passenger vehicle sales plunge 31%, steepest in two decades

[I]  No jail, CSR non-compliance should be a civil offence: Govt-appointed panel

[I]  Life insurers' clock 44% growth in premium collection for Q1FY20

[I]  It will take 1-2 years to come out of economic slowdown: Bimal Jalan

[I]  63% banks report decline in NPA in infra sector in six months: Ficci-IBA

[I]  Banks to get two-year guarantee to purchase 'pooled assets' of NBFCs

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10924;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0275;  DJIA Mini: 26265;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7222;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20580;  EUR-USD: 1.1171; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.42;  Gold (Spot): 1502

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
14 Aug 2019