LET THE WEEKEND RECREATE THE SPACE FOR MIND, MONEY, MATTER AND MATERIAL. WISHING A MAGNIFICENT WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 04 Jan 2020

 

FED officials said that broad structural changes in the global economy have held down interest rates, inflation and economic growth in ways that are difficult for central bankers to address. Although at their mid-December meeting, they appeared comfortable holding interest rates steady, while shrugging off deepest slump in U.S. factory sector in more than 10 years and expressing caution about metastasizing tensions in the Middle East. Australia pins hopes on new wave of industrialisation while authorities have urged Australians to evacuate parts of the eastern states of Victoria and New South Wales to escape bushfires. Indonesia's air force seeded clouds with salt to try to stop rainfall reaching the slowing sinking capital after deadly flash floods and landslides triggered by some of the heaviest rain ever recorded. India's gold imports in 2019 fell 12% from a year ago to the lowest level in three years as retail buying faltered in the second half after local prices rallied to a record high. Rabi sowing tops 600 lakh ha on higher coverage whereas unseasonal rains again in Maharashtra damage crops. Budget session of Parliament may start from Jan 31 while Nobel laureate Abhijeet Banerjee opines of no need for further reduction in corporation tax. Dividend payout ratio for foreign-owned insurance intermediaries is reaching nearly 75% coinciding Forex reserve hitting record high. More than Rs 4 trillion liquidity surplus in banks may be a worry for it leading to inflation although large and medium enterprises see seven-year fall in credit quality during April-Dec.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed minutes show confidence in 2020 interest rate path

[I]  Trend lifts revenues at a time when UK spending cuts have hit finances

[I]  US-Iran tension pumps up oil price and jolts markets

[I]  Australia pins hopes on new wave of industrialisation

[I]  High-tech manufacturing emerges as solution to reduce nation’s reliance on mining for exports

[I]  Living standards grow at slowest rate since war

[I]  Employment soars but poor productivity hits wage increases

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. Democratic contenders condemn Iran strike, warn of war

[I]  U.S. sees no domestic threat but New York braces for Iranian retaliation

[I]  What rising Middle East tensions mean for oil market

[I]  Southeast Australia faces another dangerous day for bushfires

[I]  India 2019 gold imports hits three-year low as record high prices dent demand

[I]  Australia urges people to flee as fires set to surge at weekend

[I]  Indonesia seeds clouds to keep them away from flooded capital

[I]  Fed officials kick off 2020 with optimistic view of U.S. economy 

[I]  U.S. factory sector in deepest slump in more than 10 years

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Officials Saw Rates on Hold, With an Eye on Downside Risk

[I]  Iran Flashpoint Confronts Investors With Unpriceable 2020 Risks

[I]  U.S. Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Falls to Lowest Since 2009

[I]  Iran-Driven Oil Rally a Boon to Most-Beleaguered U.S. Producers

[I]  The Big 2020 Yield-Curve Steepening Bet Stumbles Out of the Gate

[I]  Predictions for the Start of a New Year

[I]  BOE Looks to Jamaica Central Bank Reggae for Communication Ideas

[I]  The ECB Policy Most Disliked in Germany Is Now Run by a German

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Minutes Show Comfort with Prolonged Pause on Rates

[I]  Fed Officials Say Rate Policy in Right Place for Now, Downplay Factory Data

[I]  Fed Officials Say Global Economic Shift Is Keeping Rates Low

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Shrinks for Fifth Month

[I]  Fed’s Barkin Says He’s Hopeful Uncertainty Is Declining

[I]  Fed’s Evans Says Weak ISM Is Surprising, But Confidence Unshaken

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  As exports slide, jewellery council plans fresh strategy to tap new markets

[I]  CBDT extends till Jan 31 deadline for compounding of I-T offences

[I]  Govt releases FAQs on e-invoicing under GST

[I]  At 9.2%, salary growth in India set to be the highest in Asia

[I]  Unseasonal rains again in Maharashtra damage crops

[I]  Govt may blink on industry’s demand to create SMP buffer

[I]  Rabi sowing tops 600 lakh ha on higher coverage

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  7 disruptions that might strike your finances

[I]  Budget session of Parliament may start from Jan 31

[I]  Forex reserve hits record high of $457.46 billion

[I]  RBI to sell cash management bills for Rs 30,000 crore

[I]  Tea exports fall in first 11 months of 2019

[I]  Inflation, CAD under US-Iran tensions ahead of Budget

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  No need for further corporation tax cuts, says Abhijit Banerjee

[I]  US-Iran tensions may spell trouble for India's oil future and economy

[I]  Liquidity surplus in banks races past Rs 4 trn. Will it lead to inflation?

[I]  Dividend payout ratio 75% for foreign-owned insurance intermediaries

[I]  Large, medium enterprises see 7-year fall in credit quality in April-Dec

[I]  11 states record retail price inflation rate of over 6% in November

[I]  After standardising health insurance, Irdai looks at rating of hospitals

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
04 Jan 2020

EXPERIENCE THE ABUNDANCE OF AFFECTIONATE AWARENESS; THIS FRIDAY TOO. WISHING A PASSIONATE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 03 Jan 2020

 

A private business survey showed that India's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in seven months in December as a jump in new orders prompted companies to ramp up production. Manufacturing in the U.S. and Asia showed signs of stabilization as 2019 drew to a close, although Europe’s industrial output offered few signs of a rebound. Economists of color say they have sounded the alarm about diversity issues in economics for decades, and the profession seems to be responding. However, they say there is still much more work to do. Fear of an economic decline topped the list of U.S. chief executives’ concerns going into 2020, according to a survey from the Conference Board. The number of job cuts announced in 2019 due to companies filing for bankruptcy protection hit the highest level in more than a decade, a new report found. German savers shrug off negative rates fears whereas Brussels faces fight over EU minimum wage pledge. U.S. jobless claims edge lower but trend points to uptick in filings whereas U.S. consumer comfort rises to five-month high on economic views. BoE survey funds, UK companies turn a little less gloomy over Brexit impact. RBI announces third round of ‘Operation Twist’ on Monday where RBI will sell & purchase bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore each. Bank credit grows 7.1% and deposits increase 10%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China halts tie-up between Shanghai and London exchanges

[I]  Canada’s farmers struggle to reap gains from EU free trade deal

[I]  Trump warns Turkey about meddling in Libya

[I]  German savers shrug off negative rates fears

[I]  Brussels faces fight over EU minimum wage pledge

[I]  Beijing’s delicate balancing act relies on job creation

 

REUTERS

[I]  December factory activity jumps to seven-month high

[I]  UK shop prices fall for seventh month running: BRC/Nielsen

[I]  Norway suspends sea search efforts for missing Bulgarian sailors

[I]  U.S. expands scope of program to return migrants to Mexico

[I]  Wall St. starts 2020 with new records on China stimulus, trade hopes 

[I]  U.S. jobless claims edge lower but trend points to uptick in filings

[I]  UK companies turn a little less gloomy over Brexit impact - BoE survey

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  First Three Weeks of Year Can Be an Emerging-Market Red Herring

[I]  Fed Minutes in Focus for Clues on Repo Plans, Rate-Hold Resolve

[I]  Bold Call to Add Long India Bonds Boosts Fund Manager’s Gains

[I]  China’s Brexit Warning, Ant Financial, Philly Fed: Eco Day

[I]  Roaring Start to the ’20s Leaves One Stock Market Nook Stranded

[I]  Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis

[I]  U.S. Consumer Comfort Rises to Five-Month High on Economic Views

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to Four-Week Low in Tight Labor Market

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Manufacturing Shows Stability in U.S., Asia

[I]  Economics Profession Turns Attention to its ‘Race Problem’

[I]  Jobs and Inflation: The Great Trade-Off, Demystified

[I]  Recession Fears Rise for CEOs as Trade Concerns Linger

[I]  China’s Monetary Policy Eases Into the New Year

[I]  Job Cuts From Bankruptcies Hit Highest Level Since 2005

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India looks to leverage Chabahar port to boost trade with Central Asia

[I]  Project’s curbs-free status will continue, US assures India

[I]  Streamlining GST System: Revenue Secretary Pandey to chair meeting on January 7

[I]  Solid rise in factory orders boosts manufacturing PMI in December

[I]  DGFT suspends licence to export cashew kernels against import of shelled ones

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  The biggest challenge facing e-comm sector

[I]  RBI to sell & purchase bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore each on Monday

[I]  RBI announces third round of Operation Twist on Monday

[I]  India can explore USD 82 billion export potential in 20 products in China: Report

[I]  Factory activity strengthens in December, PMI rises to 52.7

[I]  GST rate hikes may come in phases to reduce price pains

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Forensic auditors in a fix over Data Protection Bill, seek exceptions

[I]  India signals duty cuts on wine, auto; EU keen on investment protection

[I]  Bank credit grows 7.1% and deposits increase 10%, reveals RBI data

[I]  Trai seeks views on setting up multi-stakeholder body for net neutrality

[I]  FinMin to discuss ways with tax commissioners to plug GST leaks on Jan 14

[I]  Electricity supply falls for 5th straight month to 1.1% amid slowdown

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12352;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4750;  DJIA Mini: 28815;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7559;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23450;  EUR-USD: 1.1176; Crude Oil (WTI): 62.21;  Gold (Spot): 1534

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
03 Jan 2020

LET 2020, UNFOLD THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF ADOLESCENT ASPIRATIONS, AWESOME ADVENTURES AND ANGELIC ADMIRATIONS. WISHING A DECOROUS DECADE AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Jan 2020

 

In 2020’s opening week, some economic news nuggets could give clues about how the new year will unfold, with new factory data for China, Europe and the U.S., and the Fed could offer more monetary-policy clarity. President Trump said he would sign the phase-one trade deal with China on Jan. 15 and will later travel to Beijing for talks on a broader pact. Chinese officials kicked off the new year—one that is expected to present new challenges for the world’s second-largest economy—by signalling a tilt toward easier money. With China facing the highest consumer inflation in almost a decade and the slowest economic growth since the early 1990s, some experts are fretting about a once unthinkable prospect there: stagflation. PBOC stresses policy flexibility as economic pressures persist, cuts banks' reserve ratios again, frees up $115 billion to spur economy whereas Pakistan inflation touches 12.6% in December and Singapore economy expands 0.7% in 2019, slowest in a decade. High-grade issuers may sell $120 billion of debt in January spree. India-Mauritius FTA nears finalisation while FDI rises 15% during Apr-Sept period. Gross GST collections cross Rs One lakh cr in December 2019 while Infra projects' cost overrun crosses Rs 4-lakh crore mark. Auto sales continue to slide in Dec, likely to remain subdued for some time. India is expected to struggle to post 5% GDP growth in 2020, largely due to credit squeeze and other cyclical issues while Govt sees nominal GDP at 12.2% till FY22 assuming average inflation of 4%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Russia fills the void in Cuba left by tougher US embargo

[I]  Do not underestimate Trump’s re-election chances

[I]  A revolution in Africa’s relations with France

[I]  The EU needs to learn the language of power

[I]  Biodiversity is key to action on climate change

 

REUTERS

[I]  India approves third moon mission, months after landing failure

[I]  Singapore economy expands 0.7% in 2019, slowest in a decade

[I]  Singapore fourth-quarter GDP growth picks up on services sector

[I]  Israel's Netanyahu says he will seek immunity in graft cases

[I]  North Korea's leader promises 'new strategic weapon,' leaves room for talks

[I]  Dollar starts new year with a hangover as others find cheer

[I]  China cuts banks' reserve ratios again, frees up $115 billion to spur economy

[I]  Pakistan inflation 12.63% in December - statistics bureau

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Muni Bond Sales Start Earlier Than Ever as Economy Slows

[I]  The Strongest Major Currency This Year Could Stall Out in 2020

[I]  Why It's A Big Problem That Economists Still Don't Understand Money

[I]  China Bank Boost, Xi Defends China Model, U.S. Consumer

[I]  Singapore’s Economy Slumps in Final Months of 2019

[I]  PBOC Stresses Policy Flexibility as Economic Pressures Persist

[I]  High-Grade Issuers to Sell $120 Billion of Debt in January Spree

[I]  Venezuela Cuts List of Tax-Free Imports to Boost Local Producers

[I]  U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops on Muted Outlook

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Jobs and Inflation: The Great Trade-Off, Demystified

[I]  Tariffs on Chinese Goods Are Skirted by Some U.S. Shoppers

[I]  Trump Says He Will Sign Phase-One Trade Deal With China on Jan. 15

[I]  China’s Monetary Policy Eases Into the New Year

[I]  Home Prices Rose at a Slightly Faster Pace in October

[I]  South Africa’s Scandal-Hit State Firms Put Economy on ‘Cliff’s Edge’

[I]  Economy Week Ahead: Purchasing Managers, Consumer Confidence, Fed Minutes

[I]  China Is Taking No Chances With Stagflation

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Gross GST collections touch Rs 1.03 lakh cr in December 2019

[I]  FDI rises 15% during Apr-Sept to $26 bn

[I]  India-Mauritius FTA nears finalisation

[I]  LPG price hiked by around ₹20/cylinder across India

[I]  Import duty on crude, refined palm oils cut by 5%

[I]  ‘India will struggle to post 5% GDP growth in 2020’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  FDI rises 15 per cent during Apr-Sep to $26 billion

[I]  Reforms in 2020: Enough of Snakes & Ladders for economy

[I]  Bengaluru-Chennai Expressway sees some hope as bids likely soon

[I]  Infra projects' cost overrun crosses Rs 4-lakh crore mark

[I]  PM-Kisan, mandi reforms steal the show in 2019

[I]  All eyes on Nirmala Sitharaman's second Budget for tax relief

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  In a booster dose, pharma industry gets 'green' signal in New Year

[I]  India's start-up culture concentrated in a few states: RBI survey

[I]  Auto sales continue to slide in Dec, likely to remain subdued for some time

[I]  Tricky predictions: How users, producers may adapt to shared consumption

[I]  Govt slashes import duty on crude, refine palm oil, move to hurt refiners

[I]  Govt sees nominal GDP at 12.2% till FY22; assuming average inflation of 4%

[I]  Industry players lobby for relaxation of offshore fund taxation rules

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12241;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4850;  DJIA Mini: 28582;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7500;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23450;  EUR-USD: 1.1219; Crude Oil (WTI): 61.33;  Gold (Spot): 1519

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
02 Jan 2020