FAITH - THE CURE FOR EVERYTHING - YOU ARE BLESSED WITH. WISHING A LOVING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 19 Jun 2020

As many companies across the U.S. explore ways to promote more racial equality in hiring, new research suggests banning salary history questions for job applicants provides considerable benefits for African-Americans and women. The surge in skipped payments on debts including student loans suggests that the layoffs related to the coronavirus have taken a severe economic toll. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to cut ties with China, a day after his top diplomats held talks with Beijing and his trade representative said he did not consider decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies a viable option. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended policy choices to invest in debts of riskier companies through emergency lending programs and to provide loans without conditions that firms maintain payroll, in a letter to congressional overseers. Mnuchin Declares Global Corporate-Tax Talks at an Impasse while more than 100 countries have been working for years to reshape the rules for how nations divide up the taxes paid by multinational companies.

India is expected to join June 23 trilateral meeting with Russia, China while India rethinks strategic ties following border clashes with China. India is to launch new rural job programme for migrants whereas India Inc pre-tax profit falls 26% in Q4. PM modi says that the economy returning to pre-lockdown levels although Fitch revises outlook on India to negative and ADB sees Indian economy shrinking 4% in FY21 after growth call earlier.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Supreme Court thwarts Trump’s push to end ‘Dreamers’ protection

[I]  US retail recovery delivers $28bn blow to short sellers

[I]  Chanel forecasts ‘difficult’ two years for luxury amid Covid-19

[I]  Europeans vow to pursue digital tax plans after US ‘provocation’

[I]  African business steps up in global scramble for virus test kits

[I]  Merkel issues stark warning on urgency of EU coronavirus recovery fund

[I]  Banks rush to borrow record €1.3tn at negative rates from ECB

[I]  India rethinks strategic ties following border clashes with China

REUTERS

[I]  Exclusive: India plans extra tariffs, trade barriers on 300 imported products - sources

[I]  India to launch new rural job programme for migrants

[I]  Japan lifts coronavirus travel curbs to help economy bounce back

[I]  U.S. Fed's balance sheet shrinks for first time since February

[I]  OPEC+ pushes for compliance, undecided on oil cut extension 

[I]  Sharp learning curve for bosses as WFH goes global

[I]  Trump renews threat to cut ties with Beijing, a day after high-level U.S.-China talks

[I]  Japan's deflation gathers pace as prices extend declines

[I]  U.S. labor market improvement stalling; second wave of layoffs seen

[I]  Bank of England slows bond purchases as it sees some recovery signs

[I]  India says to join June 23 trilateral meeting with Russia, China

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Goldman Warns of Declines for U.S. Stocks With High China Sales

[I]  Australians Come Out of Lockdown And Spend Like Never Before

[I]  Downgrade Risks With Snap Polls Looming Roil Malaysia’s Bond

[I]  We Will Be Living With the Coronavirus Pandemic Well Into 2021

[I]  There’s a Flood of Japanese Money Rushing Into Dollar Assets

[I]  China’s $3.5 Trillion Wealth Product Market Shows First Losses

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Unemployment Claims Edge Lower but Remain Historically High

[I]  Mnuchin, Powell Defend Borrower Requirements Under Emergency Lending Programs

[I]  Study Finds Salary-History Bans Boost Pay for African-Americans, Women

[I]  Former Fed Economists Urge Easier Terms for ‘Main Street’ Loans

[I]  Americans Skip Millions of Loan Payments as Virus Exacts Toll

[I]  Mnuchin Declares Global Corporate-Tax Talks at an Impasse

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Used-cars segment sees renewed buyer interest

[I]  Railways pushes ahead with wooing traffic from roads through higher use of boxes

[I]  Pharma API imports from China: India moving towards self-reliance

[I]  Bucking Covid-19 slowdown: Tractor sales, production increase in May

[I]  Fertiliser subsidy dues likely to cross a record ₹60,000 crore in FY21

[I]  Economy returning to pre-lockdown levels, says PM Modi

[I]  Fitch revises outlook on India to negative

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India wants a great wall against Chinese firms

[I]  China-linked FDIs look for gaps to stay below radar

[I]  BoE boosts bond buying by $125 billion to counter virus crisis

[I]  Mauritius tax: A 30-yr-old treaty India still can't finalise

[I]  Liquidator has overriding right on company’s assets over tax department: NCLT

[I]  10 states seek extension of free grains scheme

[I]  FSDC sub-committee resolves to do whatever it takes to revive economy

[I]  Chinese stakes under lens, govt to review stakes in infra projects

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Whirlpool of India pre-tax profit falls 26% in Q4; revenue dips marginally

[I]  India's slow climb to $500-billion foreign exchange reserves fortune

[I]  Regulators, top govt officials meet to pull economy out of crisis

[I]  ADB sees Indian economy shrinking 4% in FY21 after growth call earlier

[I]  Surge in bank deposits due to govt borrowings, not savings: India Ratings

[I]  Participatory notes investments rise to over Rs 60,000 cr till May

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10037;  USDINR DGCX: 76.3475;  DJIA Mini: 25957;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6223;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22380;  EUR-USD: 1.1212; Crude Oil (WTI): 39.24;  Gold (Spot): 1726

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Jun 2020

HAPPINESS IS THE MOST PRECIOUS GIFT OF A GENTLE SMILE. WISHING A CARING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 18 Jun 2020

FED Chairman Powell said recent economic improvement could be jeopardized if Congress curtailed support to workers displaced and businesses shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic. SBA Emergency Loan Program Left Behind Many of America’s Neediest Firms as the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program failed to take into account the widely varying needs and limitations of small businesses caught in Covid-19 lockdowns. US upends global digital tax plans after pulling out of talks with Europe while top trade official says US will seek ‘broader reset’ of WTO tariffs. ADB sees developing Asia barely growing in 2020 due to pandemic whereas global stocks retreat on rising second wave fears. WHO sees 'green shoots' of hope in pandemic while labour ministry to fast-track National Employment Policy in India. India is all set to make an economic counter-attack against China.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US upends global digital tax plans after pulling out of talks with Europe

[I]  China tightens restrictions as Beijing outbreak widens

[I]  Pharma groups to ramp up output of virus drug dexamethasone

[I]  Top trade official says US will seek ‘broader reset’ of WTO tariffs

[I]  Brutal details emerge of deadly China-India border clash

[I]  A battle over the EU’s fiscal rules is looming

[I]  Visa predicts ‘permanent’ shift in consumer spending habits

REUTERS

[I]  ADB sees developing Asia barely growing in 2020 due to pandemic

[I]  Global stocks retreat on rising second wave fears

[I]  Japan firms curb jobs, cut pay to cope with coronavirus pain: Reuters poll

[I]  May flowers: Where the U.S. retail blooms are and are not

[I]  China warns of countermeasures in response to U.S. Uighurs law

[I]  China Vice Premier Liu He says monetary policy should be more flexible

[I]  Fed's Powell beats drum for more government aid to bolster economy

[I]  Argentina debt talks hit roadblock as government, creditors rattle sabers

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Ever Increasing U.S. Oil Inventories Overshadow Demand Optimism

[I]  Powell Urges Congress Not to Remove Fiscal Support Too Fast

[I]  China Asks Banks to Forgo $211 Billion to Help Boost Economy

[I]  China Signals Further Reserve Ratio Cut to Spur Bank Lending

[I]  Wall Street Rewrites Market Playbooks With Second Wave Looming

[I]  Big Banks Are Finally Hiring Again With Coders in Demand

[I]  Powell Fiscal Call, EU Counters China, G-7 on Hong Kong: Eco Day

[I]  Bank of England Prepares Its Next Act in Saving of U.K. Economy

[I]  Brazil Nods to More Easing Amid Surging Pessimism on Economy

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Says Economic Gains Are at Risk if Stimulus Measures End Prematurely

[I]  SBA Emergency Loan Program Left Behind Many of America’s Neediest Firms

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Deal on Track, Lighthizer Says

[I]  A United Front on China Starts to Take Shape

[I]  U.S. Experiencing Coin Shortage Due to Coronavirus Pandemic, Fed Chairman Says

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Gem, jewellery exports plunge 82% as Covid takes heavy toll

[I]  India’s coal consumption growth in 2019 slowest since 2001: bp Stats Review

[I]  EU’s tweaking of steel import safeguard rules: India initiates talks with bloc

[I]  Registration of charges: Corp Affairs Ministry grants moratorium for Covid-19 period

[I]  Amid Covid gloom, farm sector blooms for the most part

[I]  Labour shortage, good rains to spur herbicide usage this year

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India all set to make an economic counter-attack against China

[I]  No cars, new interiors: PSBs told to cut costs

[I]  WHO sees 'green shoots' of hope in pandemic

[I]  Monsoon likely to reach Delhi by June 22-23: IMD

[I]  HNIs find a solid new wealth multiplier in state bonds

[I]  Wheat procurement hits all-time high

[I]  MCA notifies seven month relaxation for filings relating to creation or modification of charges

[I]  Labour ministry to fast-track National Employment Policy

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Telcos told to stop sourcing 4G telecom equipment from Chinese firms

[I]  Indian start-ups funded by Chinese investors hit Great Wall of uncertainty

[I]  Late advance tax payments by corporate heavyweights give govt a breather

[I]  RBI to replace NHB rules with its own set as the new HFC regulator

[I]  Fintechs see inflexion point as Covid-19 gives fillip to digital modes

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9789;  USDINR DGCX: 76.2825;  DJIA Mini: 25693;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6166;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22229;  EUR-USD: 1.1244; Crude Oil (WTI): 37.34;  Gold (Spot): 1725

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 Jun 2020

LOVING HEALING AND BLESSING. WISHING A GREAT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Jun 2020

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell thinks, a full U.S. economic recovery will not occur until the American people are sure that the novel coronavirus epidemic has been brought under control. Powell says despite signs of stabilization; risks of long-term economic damage are significant and sees the economy faces potentially significant long-term damage from higher unemployment and a wave of small business failures despite recent signs of an economic rebound. US banks paid nearly twice as much in dividends as they earned while Europe’s young feel chill of frozen labour market. Bank of Japan pledges $1tn in coronavirus loans whereas ‘Frugal four’ warn pandemic spending must be responsible. IMF sees 'profound uncertainty' about global recovery while A Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey found that the business sentiment of Asian companies sank to an 11-year low in the second quarter, with some two-thirds of the firms polled flagging a worsening COVID-19 pandemic as the biggest risk over the next six months.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Powell warns of ‘significant uncertainty’ over US recovery

[I]  US banks paid nearly twice as much in dividends as they earned

[I]  Europe’s young feel chill of frozen labour market

[I]  Bank of Japan pledges $1tn in coronavirus loans

[I]  ‘Frugal four’ warn pandemic spending must be responsible

[I]  Tighter times mean tougher corporate choices

REUTERS

[I]  From historic summit to building destruction, North Korea unsettles U.S.

[I]  Asian business sentiment plunges to record low on virus effect: Thomson... 

[I]  Summer crop sowing speeding up as monsoon covers half of India

[I]  Green shoots welcome but recovery still a long road, Fed's Powell says

[I]  Japan manufacturers' mood turns gloomier as virus damage spreads 

[I]  Japan's exports fall most since 2009 as virus hits U.S. shipments

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Stays With Message of Uncertain Path for Recovery

[I]  China Inc. Leaving U.S. Market at Fastest Pace Since 2015

[I]  Kings of Controversial Debt Trades Cry Foul When on Other Side

[I]  Carry Trades Are Back in Focus, Especially for Indonesia’s Rupiah

[I]  Powell Modest Bounce, Trump Trillion, Lessons From Past: Eco Day

[I]  Chile Holds Key Rate at Record Low, Expands Stimulus Package

[I]  Five Charts That Show How Bad Things Are for Indian Consumers

[I]  One Month of Fed ETF Buying Redraws $4 Trillion Market Contours

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Says Despite Signs of Stabilization, Risks of Long-Term Economic Damage Are Significant

[I]  Boats, Pools and Home Furnishings: How the Lockdown Transformed Our Spending Habits

[I]  U.S. Retail Sales Rose Record 18% in May

[I]  Fed Will Amass Corporate Bond Portfolio Using Index Approach

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  PM sees green shoots in the economy

[I]  Advance tax: 80% drop in first instalment collections from corporate assessees

[I]  NITI Aayog to NBFCs: Don’t frown on restructuring of customers loans

[I]  Sowing patterns indicate farmers conforming to regulated cropping

[I]  Why farm subsidies in India are far lower than in rich countries

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Another relief package may be on the cards

[I]  Global banks' back offices embrace WFH

[I]  Gross tax collection falls 31% so far in June quarter

[I]  Indian companies pump $22 billion in US as FDI: CII Survey

[I]  India 9th largest recipient of FDI in 2019, will continue to attract investments: UN

[I]  India's employment rate improved by 3.3% for week ended June 14: CMIE

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Centre relaxes payment mechanism for govt-funded highway contracts

[I]  India's contract labour laws are riddled with incentives for corruption

[I]  EPFO allows regional offices to settle PF claims from other centres

[I]  IMF sees 'profound uncertainty' about global recovery: Gita Gopinath

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9843;  USDINR DGCX: 76.4000;  DJIA Mini: 26055;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6226;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22414;  EUR-USD: 1.1266; Crude Oil (WTI): 37.39;  Gold (Spot): 1726

Best Regards, ARBIND

17 Jun 2020

MAY THE BLISSFUL EXUBERANCE SPREAD ALL AROUND. WISHING A RELISHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Jun 2020

The Federal Reserve launched its Main Street Lending Program which also included non-profit organizations, the most complex program undertaken yet by the U.S. central bank to help keep the backbone of the economy from buckling under the strains of the coronavirus pandemic. In the U.S. and elsewhere, government debt is set to soar this year. Some people thinking about how to pay down the debt are looking at an approach used after World War II: financial repression. Chinese consumers stepped up to make big-ticket purchases, pushing up home prices and auto-sales numbers and prompting economists to increase their growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. Reserve Bank of Australia finds Australia's economic downturn possibly shallower than previously thought. Crisil opines Indian MSMEs’ revenues to fall by a fifth while CII report finds 155 Indian companies create nearly 125000 jobs in US.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Coronavirus could infect human brain and replicate, US study shows

[I]  EU to relax state aid rules that hindered support for start-ups

[I]  Jakarta to use QE for as long as needed to tackle pandemic

[I]  Japan’s army of insurance saleswomen feel threat of digital revolution

[I]  The UK’s fight for free trade cannot be fudged

[I]  China is setting itself up to win cold war 2.0

REUTERS

[I]  India's election-bound Bihar state records nearly double national jobless rate

[I]  Bank of Japan keeps policy steady, eyes recovery from pandemic

[I]  Fed launches long-awaited Main Street lending program, seeks to reach nonprofits

[I]  Australia's economic downturn possibly shallower than previously thought - RBA

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Will Begin Buying Broad Portfolio of Corporate Bonds

[I]  OPEC+ Deal Will Bring Oil Back to ‘Normal’ as Producers Commit

[I]  RBI Seen Deploying Hybrid Playbook to Keep Bond Traders Guessing

[I]  Fed Corporate QE, Outlook Less Bleak, EU Counters China: Eco Day

[I]  BOE’s Toolkit May Include a Bond Buying Policy Made in Japan

[I]  Japan to End Longest IPO Drought Since 2009 With Three Listings

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Chinese Consumers Add Fuel to Factory-Led Economic Recovery

[I]  Fed Will Amass Corporate Bond Portfolio Using Index Approach

[I]  Expanded Tax Break for Charitable Gifts Gains Support in Congress

[I]  Dallas Fed’s Kaplan Says Rebound Likely in Second Half

[I]  Kudlow Urges Replacing Unemployment-Benefit Boost With Return-to-Work ‘Bonus’

[I]  Governments May Revisit Postwar Playbook as They Tackle Huge Debts

[I]  Fed Outlines Proposal to Lend Money to Nonprofits

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  WPI inflation falls 3.21 per cent in May

[I]  Exports fall 36.47 per cent in May, trade deficit narrows to $3.15 billion

[I]  Monsoon active over West, Central, East India

[I]  MSMEs’ revenues to fall by a fifth: Crisil

[I]  Pesticide exports exempted from proposed ban

[I]  Global trade logjam looms as deadline set by unions for crew change ends

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Banks approach FinMin, RBI to ease ECB rules

[I]  Record harvest likely as southwest monsoon makes swift progress

[I]  GST mop-up hit by Covid, 'act of God': Centre

[I]  May wholesale prices fall signals deflation

[I]  India’s falling prices give RBI room to ease policy further

[I]  155 Indian companies create nearly 125000 jobs in US: CII report

[I]  With work from home comes pay for home

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Slower data speeds: Worst might be over, but only temporarily

[I]  Maharashtra govt signs Rs 16,000-crore investment pacts with 12 firms

[I]  Solar to eclipse thermal power by 2030 in India's overall energy mix

[I]  Widening gap between wholesale and retail food inflation? Blame lockdown

[I]  Farmers expand area under cotton by 24% on price increase, MSP hike

[I]  In nine hikes, petrol price goes up by Rs 5 per litre, diesel by Rs 4.87

[I]  Widen MSME scheme ambit: Private lenders to FM Nirmala Sitharaman

MARKETS (09:45 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10009;  USDINR DGCX: 75.9875;  DJIA Mini: 26154;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6218;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22372;  EUR-USD: 1.1337; Crude Oil (WTI): 36.88;  Gold (Spot): 1728

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 Jun 2020