THE ENVIRONMENT IS IN CONTROL TO CARE FOR US, LET US BREATHE CALMNESS. WISHING A SERENE WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Nov 2019

 

Germany and India signed wide-ranging agreements in New Delhi to deepen strategic cooperation and exchanged notes on ways to boost bilateral trade. US wants India to open up more sectors for its companies. GST collections remain subdued at Rs 95,380 cr in October. Govt unlikely to waive off Rs 1.33 trillion tax payout by telcos. As per CMIE, unemployment rate in India rose to a three-year high of 8.5% in Oct while manufacturing PMI drops to 2-year low in October on weak demand. Factory output continued to weaken in many parts of the world during October, according to surveys of purchasing managers, and there were signs the sector’s long slowdown is taking a rising toll on jobs. The U.S. economy has cooled but continues to expand with employers hiring, consumers spending and growth stabilizing. FED Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the central bank was done cutting interest rates unless it sees a serious slowdown in economic activity. Friday’s US employment report justifies that pause for now. South Africa moves one step closer to junk rating as Moody’s cuts outlook.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US hiring stays firm as consumer hangs in

[I]  Saudi Arabia cuts spending and puts faith in reform

[I]  China cleared to impose $3.6bn in new tariffs on US

[I]  Delhi declares air pollution emergency

[I]  Brooklyn’s property market falters

 

REUTERS

[I]  India to deepen ties, boost bilateral trade with Germany

[I]  U.S.-China trade deal in sight after progress in high-level talks

[I]  Softening demand drags Indian factory growth to two-year low in October - PMI

[I]  On eve of China import fair, EU warns of 'promise fatigue'

[I]  'Deja vu': Argentina braced for new round of debt talks with markets stalled

[I]  U.S.-China trade accord will require three phases - White House adviser

[I]  Trump says trade deal with China coming along well

[I]  China may impose $3.58 billion in annual trade sanctions on U.S. - WTO panel

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Charting the Global Economy: Payrolls and Fed Pause

[I]  How Yields Could Go Negative in the U.S.

[I]  IMF Completes Review of Sri Lanka, Enabling Fund Disbursement

[I]  South Africa Eludes Third Junk Rating as Markets Beg to Differ

[I]  South Africa Moves One Step Closer to Junk Rating as Moody’s Cuts Outlook

[I]  France Inc. Racks Up $45 Billion of Deals in October Spree

[I]  BOE Poised to Unveil Gloomier Forecasts Amid Brexit Uncertainty

[I]  U.S. Shadow Lenders See Loan Volume Slow, Quality Decline

[I]  China Wins WTO Case to Sanction $3.6 Billion in U.S. Trade

[I]  Lebanese Banks Curtail Transfers Abroad Amid Unrest

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Job Gains Help Extend U.S. Economic Growth

[I]  Top Fed Officials Signal Comfort With Pause in Rate Cuts

[I]  Analysis: Jobs Report Supports Fed Case to Pause Rate Cuts

[I]  New York Fed’s Williams Says Economy Is Strong

[I]  Warren Would Tax the Wealthy and Companies to Pay for Medicare for All

[I]  Global Factory Slowdown Takes Toll on Jobs

[I]  Warren’s Medicare for All Would Leave Mark on U.S. Economy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  US wants India to open up more sectors for its companies

[I]  New Delhi asks for Chabahar Port to be insulated from economic sanctions

[I]  Time ripe to launch weather derivatives in India

[I]  PMI-Manufacturing at two year low of 50.6 in October

[I]  India to appeal against WTO dispute panel’s ruling on export promotion schemes

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Turkish import seeds a poppy war in India

[I]  Government fixes sugar sale quota of 20.5 lakh tonne for November

[I]  US seeks more relaxation in India FDI policy

[I]  GST collections remain subdued at Rs 95,380 cr in October

[I]  First export preparedness index to rank states, UTs likely in January 2020

[I]  Germany's Merkel likely to press for FTA in talks with Indian PM Modi

[I]  No GST on adoption fees, kids not goods: AAR

[I]  GST collections remain subdued at Rs 95,380 cr in October

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt unlikely to waive off Rs 1.33 trillion tax payout by telcos

[I]  Corporate debtors set to get IBC immunity against attachment of assets

[I]  Unemployment rate in India rose to a three-year high of 8.5% in Oct: CMIE

[I]  India reiterates its stand to US on strategic relations with Iran

[I]  Manufacturing PMI drops to 2-year low in October on weak demand

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
02 Nov 2019

THE HAPPINESS DOES NOT DEPEND UPON CIRCUMSTANCES; SOMETIME IT DOES ON FRIDAY. WISHING A DAY OF HIGH SPIRIT AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Nov 2019

 

India among top nations with most conducive environment for financial inclusion: Report but US think tank thinks that India's growth is in barely positive territory. A World Trade Organization (WTO) panel ruled that Indian export subsidies are prohibited and should be removed, upholding a complaint brought by the United States. U.S. inflation remained soft in September, as labor costs rose modestly despite the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Households increased spending heading into the fourth quarter, suggesting consumers have continued to help prop up U.S. economic growth. The Eurozone’s economic expansion continued at a crawl in the three months through September, with little prospect of a quick return to robust growth. Chinese manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low in October, raising another warning signal as hopes for a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade talks were dealt a further blow. Saudi Arabia is to cut spending as private sector growth picks up. Negative rates ‘essential’ for Swiss economy, says central banker. Japan's September jobless rate edges up from near three-decade low. Bank of Japan, Leaving Rates Unchanged, Suggests Further Lowering Is Possible.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU eyes new anti-money laundering body after scandals

[I]  ‘Imperious’ Macron tests patience of EU partners

[I]  Fed opts to wait on the US consumer with rate cut pause

[I]  India confirms cyber attack on nuclear plant

[I]  Nancy Pelosi willing to allow vote on Nafta revamp

[I]  Eurozone economy defies expectations with modest growth

[I]  Hong Kong falls into recession as protests rock economy

[I]  Bank of Japan hints it is willing to cut interest rates

[I]  Negative rates ‘essential’ for Swiss economy, says central banker

 

REUTERS

[I]  China Oct. factory activity expands at fastest pace in over two years: Caixin PMI

[I]  Japan finmin Aso sees no need now for economic stimulus

[I]  South Korea October exports fall most in almost four years on chips, China demand

[I]  Irish manufacturing conditions improve for first time since May - PMI

[I]  Japan October factory activity sinks to three-year low, orders fall - PMI

[I]  WTO panel rules India export subsidies illegal, upholds U.S. case

[I]  U.S. imposes new Iran sanctions, but waives others

[I]  UK lawmakers want bank payments 'speed bump' to stop scammers

[I]  Japan's September jobless rate edges up from near three-decade low

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Trade Deal Doubt, U.S. Outlook Worry, Taiwan Boom: Eco Day

[I]  Oil Set for Weekly Drop on Rising Saudi Output and Trade Woes

[I]  China Likely to Loosen Cap on Foreign Coal as Imports Race Ahead

[I]  Japan’s Overseas M&A Boom Is Keeping the Yen's Gains in Check

[I]  Saudi Arabia to Cut Spending as Private Sector Growth Picks Up

[I]  U.S. Wins WTO Case Against India Involving Billions in Subsidies

[I]  Turkey Plans to Ramp Up Borrowing in 2020 as Budget Woes Mount

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Inflation Remains Soft in September

[I]  U.S. Consumers Stay on a Spending Streak

[I]  Eurozone’s Sluggish Economy Shows Challenge Facing Lagarde

[I]  Treasury Pares Back Anti-Inversion Tax Regulations

[I]  Chinese Manufacturing Slumps to Eight-Month Low

[I]  Fed Cuts Rate for Third Time This Year, Signals Pause

[I]  Newsletter: Fed Signals Pause, Hong Kong in Recession

[I]  Bank of Japan, Leaving Rates Unchanged, Suggests Further Lowering Is Possible

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Core sector output contracts 5.2% in Sept

[I]  In H1, fiscal deficit at 93% of full-year target

[I]  Cabinet likely to consider changes in terms of reference of 15th finance panel

[I]  RCEP: India says critical issues still need to be sorted out

[I]  Core sector output contracts 5.2% in Sept

[I]  India among top nations with most conducive environment for financial inclusion: Report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  NHAI to focus on land acquisition for new projects

[I]  Onion, tomato prices continue to rule high at Rs 60-70/kg in Delhi

[I]  RBI asks Indian banks to probe alleged data leak of 1.3 million cards

[I]  India's growth is in barely positive territory: US think tank

[I]  Losses due to GST in FY23 to be Rs 13K cr: UP to Finance Panel

[I]  Labour productivity falls over the last eight years

[I]  India needs low tariffs to draw supply chains and create jobs: Raghuram Rajan

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  WTO backs US in trade dispute, says India's export subsidies illegal

[I]  Global sugar-palm lobbies coming to India to protect their trade

[I]  Coal supply hits power, but renewable generation falls in September

[I]  Fifteenth Finance Commission raises concerns on debt levels of states

[I]  Negotiations still unresolved, govt bets on RCEP ministers' meet on Nov 1

[I]  NHAI seeks Rs 25,000-cr additional budgetary support for highway projects

[I]  Low tax revenue, high spend push H1 fiscal deficit to 93% of FY20 target

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11912;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2500;  DJIA Mini: 27037;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7255;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22830;  EUR-USD: 1.1163; Crude Oil (WTI): 54.34;  Gold (Spot): 1511

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
01 Nov 2019

THE DIVINE POWER IS IN POWER-PLAY MODE; TRUST, HE IS PLAYFUL. WISHING A LIBERATING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 31 Oct 2019

 

India plans to invest Rs 1 trillion in setting up 100 new airports by 2024. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year to help sustain U.S. growth despite a slowdown in other parts of the world, but signaled there would be no further reductions unless the economy takes a turn for the worse. US GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.9%, with consumer spending and housing investment offsetting a business-investment drop. Leaders from the United States and China encountered a new obstacle in their struggle to end a damaging trade war, when the summit where they were supposed to meet was cancelled because of violent protests. Negative interest rate scepticism grows at the European Central Bank. Brazil to extend rate cuts with easing cycle at cruising speed. Turkey to make clear how much wiggle room remains to cut rates.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed delivers third rate cut but signals it is done for now

[I]  China manufacturers divert cash into financial products

[I]  Denmark gives green light to Russia-Germany gas link

[I]  French economic growth beats expectations

[I]  US growth rate eases to 1.9% in the third quarter

[I]  Lagarde hits out at Germany and Netherlands on spending

[I]  Opposition rift highlights S Africa’s race inequality

[I]  China’s largest private investment group to cut salaries

 

REUTERS

[I]  Dollar slips after Fed cuts but indicates a pause; BOJ decision eyed

[I]  U.S. SEC considers relaxing post-crisis structured mortgage product rules

[I]  China's service sector activity grows at slower pace in October - official PMI

[I]  China October factory activity shrinks for sixth month: official PMI

[I]  U.S. Fed cuts interest rates, signals it is on hold

[I]  Japan September factory output rebounds, but risks cloud outlook

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Janus Sees 2% U.S. Yields in Weeks; Fidelity Also Sees Gains

[I]  How Long Will It Take Hong Kong to Bounce Back From Recession?

[I]  Consumer Confidence Slumps to Six-Year Low as Britons Fret About Finances

[I]  Negative Interest Rate Skepticism Grows at the European Central Bank

[I]  Powell Signals Fed Policy on Hold as Economy Eyes Soft Landing

[I]  Brazil to Extend Rate Cuts With Easing Cycle at Cruising Speed

[I]  Turkey to Make Clear How Much Wiggle Room Remains to Cut Rates

[I]  Powell’s Inflation Focus Means Big Pause on Rate Hikes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Cuts Rate for Third Time This Year, Signals Pause

[I]  Fed Rate Cut Generates Dissents From Two Fed Officials

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the October Statement Changed From September

[I]  U.S. Growth Settles in at Low Gear in Third Quarter

[I]  What Is Driving The Economy—Before Trump and Now

[I]  Trump’s Tax Cut Underdelivers, Which Could Embolden Democrats

[I]  Treasury Exploring New Debt Products, Including 20-Year Bond

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Fear-psychosis around FTAs must be overcome: Goyal

[I]  Govt will weigh all aspects carefully before signing pacts, says Commerce Minister

[I]  Cyclone 'Maha' spins up over Lakshadweep; to become very severe cyclone

[I]  Resolution of stressed thermal assets slow: ICRA

[I]  With no official data, India is in dark about poverty numbers

[I]  Foreign airlines operating in India offer 5.8 lakh seats this winter

[I]  Better farming practices fetch more money for Jharkhand women

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt to build 100 new airports in 5 years

[I]  Is India missing its chance to regain growth?

[I]  Indian IT cos worst hit by H-1B rejections

[I]  Employment up but the devil is in the detail

[I]  Brave new world: US Budget deficit almost $1t; BGMI to gold ratio lowest in 78 years

[I]  US Treasury yield curve flattens after Fed cuts rates

[I]  Regulator weighs moving to gas entry-exit tariff model

[I]  Consumer loans growing but some vintage loans indicate higher risk: CIBIL

[I]  Indian, Chinese economies to accelerate in Q4, says report

[I]  Revenue concerns for the government make immediate tax cuts tough

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Food grain may be brought under GST, tax mechanism likely to be rejigged

[I]  AIF industry eyes Rs 2.9-trillion opportunity in cash-strapped firms

[I]  India Inc spent more on R&D in FY19, auto and pharma leading sectors

[I]  Loans disbursed by NBFCs remain under stress, says CIBIL report

[I]  Private sector players to add steam to eastern dedicated freight corridor

[I]  Two years on, debt resolution of first dozen firms still not complete

[I]  Multiplexes' revenue from convenience fee rises as online ticket sales grow

[I]  India to invest Rs 1 trillion in setting up 100 new airports by 2024

 

MARKETS (08:00 am) 

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11893;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0375;  DJIA Mini: 27151;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7303;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22920;  EUR-USD: 1.1167; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.20;  Gold (Spot): 1498

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
31 Oct 2019