MUSIC SOUNDS BETTER WITH FRIENDS THIS WEEKEND. WISHING A MAJESTIC WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Sep 2019

 

India's August trade deficit narrows to $13.45 billion. Exports down 6% in August as most major sectors falter.RBI-led review could be a painkiller for liquidity-starved shadow banks. Former British prime minister David Cameron, who took the decision in 2016 to hold a referendum on the country's membership of the European Union, said another vote may be needed to resolve the Brexit impasse. Spending on vehicles drove strong retail sales in August, suggesting American shoppers continue to support the economy at a time of heightened global uncertainty. The Bank of Japan is growing more open to the idea of cutting short-term interest rates deeper into negative territory, responding to global risks that are forcing other central banks to cut rates, said people familiar with the bank’s thinking.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Tech start-ups’ spending makes up 10% of Big Tech’s revenues

[I]  EU envoy urges bloc to engage more with Russia

[I]  Draghi faces chorus of criticism over fresh stimulus

[I]  China to exempt some US pork and soy imports from tariffs

[I]  Johnson vows to north he will ‘do devolution properly’

[I]  The surprising success of world cup rugby in Japan

[I]  Brexit reopens old wounds in Northern Ireland

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's August trade deficit narrows to $13.45 billion

[I]  New Delhi to slash use of cars in November to cut pollution: chief minister

[I]  With rate cut likely, market wonders how low Fed will go

[I]  Britain may need a second Brexit referendum, says former PM Cameron

[I]  India curbs onion shipments by imposing minimum export price

[I]  ECB hawks rally against Draghi's farewell stimulus

[I]  Global economy 'far' from recession, IMF official says

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  ECB Dispute Goes Public as Governors Spar Over Draghi's QE Move

[I]  Trump’s Tariffs Drag Down U.S. Solar Industry, Developer Says

[I]  IMF Likely to Withhold Argentina Billions Until Policy Fog Lifts

[I]  Zambia’s Fragile Economy Faces Pummeling From Climate Change

[I]  Zimbabwe Raises Rate to 70% to Support Currency, Curb Inflation

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  How Once-Doomed Mortgage Giants Gained New Lease on Life

[I]  Auto Sales Revved Up August Retail Spending

[I]  China to Exempt U.S. Soybeans, Pork From Punitive Tariffs

[I]  Gig Economy in Crosshairs After Freewheeling Growth

[I]  U.S. Deficit Tops $1 Trillion for First Time in Seven Years

[I]  ECB Acts to Spur Eurozone’s Flagging Economy

[I]  Newsletter: ECB’s Big Splash, America’s Big Deficit, and Inflation’s Mild Return

[I]  Who Can Go Lower? Japan Considers Deeper Negative Rates After ECB Cut

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Exports down 6% in August as most major sectors falter

[I]  As States push for GST compensation for 3 more years, no end to cess pain

[I]  Pharma exports beat recessionary trends; up 22% in July

[I]  Monsoon withdrawal may run into resistance over South Peninsula

[I]  CBDT notifies norms for faceless IT assessment

[I]  Now, slowdown bug bites tourism sector

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India isn't growing like it should, says IMF

[I]  Forex reserves soar USD 1 bn to USD 429.60 bn

[I]  Trade optimism pressures yen but caution prevails ahead of Fed, BOJ

[I]  RBI panel pitches for federal body like GST Council in farm sector

[I]  Paddy planting down by 2%, output likely to be down by 10-15%

[I]  NPCI slashes MDR for debit cards

[I]  Government plans a private sector core team for stats of the nation

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Exports contract 6% in August, trade deficit narrows to $13.45 billion

[I]  Auto sales growth outlook revised to 5-7% for FY20, says report

[I]  Govt had no outstanding loans from RBI in week ended September 6

[I]  RBI likely to go for further rate cut in October 4 meet, say experts

[I]  Focus on sustainability of agriculture, not loan waivers, says RBI

[I]  In a dim market, investments in small savings instruments jump 37%

[I]  RBI-led review could be a painkiller for liquidity-starved shadow banks

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Sep 2019

BEAUTIFUL NATURE IS CALLING FOR BEST HEALING, THIS FRIDAY. WISHING A PROLIFIC DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Sep 2019

 

India's retail inflation rate increased to a 10-month high in August but stayed below the central bank's 4% medium-term target, strengthening expectations that there will be another interest rate cut next month. Bank credit growth slumps to 10.24%, deposits at 9.73%, shows RBI data. RBI cuts risk weight on consumer credit, including personal loan, to 100%. Tariffs imposed or threatened by the United States and China could shave 0.8% off global economic output in 2020 and trigger more losses in future years, the International Monetary Fund said. The U.S. budget gap widened to more than $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the first time year-to-date deficits have topped that mark since 2012. The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate and launched a sweeping package of bond purchases that lays the groundwork for a long period of ultraloose monetary policy, jolting European financial markets.  Turkey slashes rates in bid to reverse economic slump. Japan firms push back capex plans as trade risks grow - Reuters survey.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB cuts rates and tells governments to act

[I]  145 CEOs call on Congress for tougher gun controls

[I]  Trump races to seal Nafta revamp deal with Congress

[I]  US targets companies with Chinese military ties 

[I]  Trump says he would consider ‘interim deal’ with China

[I]  China stimulus feared ‘too little, too late’

[I]  Turkey slashes rates in bid to reverse economic slump

[I]  Cuba faces blackouts as US sanctions hit fuel supplies

 

REUTERS

[I]  August retail inflation rate climbs, rate cut hopes high

[I]  Trump favours 'whole deal' with China, two sides prepare for trade talks

[I]  Japan Inc increasingly hit by trade war, but few shifting from China: Reuters poll

[I]  Trade optimism pressures yen but caution prevails ahead of Fed, BOJ

[I]  Climate protesters arrested at Texas port ahead of U.S. presidential debate

[I]  U.S., China tariffs could lower global GDP by 0.8% in 2020: IMF

[I]  Investing green is all the rage, but benchmarks still hazy

[I]  EU's Barnier says he is not optimistic on Brexit deal by mid-October

[I]  U.S.-China trade war risks driving Fed policy, not Trump's carping: economists

[I]  Draghi ties Lagarde's hands with promise of indefinite stimulus

[I]  Japan firms push back capex plans as trade risks grow - Reuters survey

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Yellen Expects Fed to ‘Do More’ to Keep U.S. Economy on Track

[I]  ECB Cuts Rates, Revives QE to Lift Growth as Draghi Era Ends

[I]  U.K. Needs U.S.-Style Constitution, Says Bercow: Brexit Update

[I]  U.S. Farm Industry Buffeted by Trade War Pitches Ethanol to Asia

[I]  Whirlwind Day in FX Leaves Dollar Weaker After Trade Report, ECB

[I]  Surge in U.S. Health-Insurance Prices Exposes Quirks in Data

[I]  Inflation in Argentina Spiked After Shock Primary Election

[I]  Australia's Biggest Economic Stimulus Since 2009 Isn't Working

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Deficit Tops $1 Trillion for First Time in Seven Years

[I]  ECB Acts to Spur Eurozone’s Flagging Economy

[I]  Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth

[I]  Mnuchin Says U.S. Looking Closely at Issuing 50-Year Bond

[I]  China Seeks to Narrow U.S. Talks to Break Deadlock

[I]  Businesses Escalate Push for Trade Pact with Canada, Mexico

[I]  Weak Energy Prices Held Down Overall Inflation In August

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Fraudsters threaten to bleed Ayushman Bharat scheme

[I]  Analysts see room for rate cut as IIP, inflation numbers disappoint

[I]  Include compliance statement on director remuneration in audit reports: CA body

[I]  Govt's ethanol push to help sugar mills, oil companies

[I]  Tax offences, failure to pay TDS up to Rs 25 lakh not be prosecuted by taxman

[I]  Default authentication to get traction as IBBI allows `information utility’ to access MCA-21, CERSAI data

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India's app economy is set to boom and how!

[I]  Banks may be walking into a dangerous trap

[I]  RBI turns seller of dollar for first time this fiscal in July

[I]  Factory output grows 4.3% in July

[I]  August retail inflation at 10-month high of 3.21%

[I]  Central contractual employees to get paid like regular staff: Report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Repo-linked loans: Home buyers to see higher outgo in initial years

[I]  States rule out GST rate cut on automobiles amid grim revenue situation

[I]  Privacy-based business models may generate $12 billion by 2025, says study

[I]  Reserve Bank increases banks' loan exposure limit to single NBFC

[I]  Bank credit growth slumps to 10.24%, deposits at 9.73%, shows RBI data

[I]  RBI cuts risk weight on consumer credit, including personal loan, to 100%

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10992;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1250;  DJIA Mini: 27218;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7361;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21780;  EUR-USD: 1.1067; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.00;  Gold (Spot): 1497

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Sep 2019

GOOD THINGS ARE ABOUT TO HAPPEN; GOD IS LEAVING HIS ANGELS FOR YOU. WISHING A CHERISHED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Sep 2019

 

Big relief for small-GST assessees: May be spared burden of filing FY18 annual return. CBDT launches one-time facility for tax offences. PE investors make a beeline for start-ups to generate higher returns. China suspends import tariffs on some US goods while US companies in China are more pessimistic about revenue outlook. U.S. companies are downshifting in China as its economy slows and trade tensions with the U.S. persist, according to a new survey that highlights softening revenue, reduced investment and job cutbacks. President Trump renewed his call for lower interest rates and his attacks on the Federal Reserve. The FED doesn't want negative interest rates even though trump does. Draghi gears up for ECB showdown on stimulus. Malaysia expected to hold rates as bets for cutting grow. Japan manufacturers' mood hits 6-1/2-year low.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Emmanuel Macron’s pivot to Russia sparks EU unease

[I]  EU faces showdown over ‘European way of life’ job

[I]  Poland’s parliament suspended until after election

[I]  China suspends import tariffs on some US goods

[I]  Australia targets addicts in tough social security reform

[I]  India’s deepening car sales slump spreads alarm

[I]  US companies in China more pessimistic about revenue outlook

 

REUTERS

[I]  India wants industry protected in China-backed trade deal: minister

[I]  UK's worst-case no-deal Brexit plan warns of food shortages, public disorder

[I]  Asian stocks hit six-week high on trade war hopes ahead of ECB

[I]  Japan's machinery orders slip as trade gloom hits business spending

[I]  Mexico sees diminished threat of U.S. tariffs after effort to curb migration

[I]  New environment minister says Japan should stop using nuclear power

[I]  U.S. social media firms to testify on violent, extremist online content

[I]  Japan manufacturers' mood hits 6-1/2-year low - Reuters Tankan

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump’s Latest Tweet on Fed, U.S. Debt Is Called a ‘Recipe for Disaster’

[I]  Argentina Clamps Down on Loophole to Gain From Capital Controls

[I]  Financial Health of Indian Firms Worsens for Fourth Straight Month

[I]  Brexit Uncertainty Casts Long Shadow Over U.K. Property Market

[I]  Draghi Gears Up for ECB Showdown on Stimulus: Decision Day Guide

[I]  The Fed Doesn't Want Negative Interest Rates Even Though Trump Does

[I]  Filipinos Dropping Out of the Workforce Could Benefit the Economy

[I]  Malaysia Expected to Hold Rates as Bets for Cutting Grow

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  How to Get Rid of Carbon Emissions: Pay Farmers to Bury Them

[I]  Trump Says Fed Should Reduce Rates to ‘Zero, or Less’

[I]  Trump Rules Out Indexing Capital-Gains Taxes to Inflation

[I]  Trump to Delay Tariffs on China by Two Weeks

[I]  Social Security Expansion Being Debated Would Raise Payroll Taxes

[I]  American Businesses Say China’s Slowdown Is a Greater Threat Than the Trade War

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Big relief for small-GST assessees: May be spared burden of filing FY18 annual return

[I]  India to align trade remedy rules with global best practices

[I]  India agrees to lower import duties on Indonesian palm oil

[I]  Bengal refuses to implement new Motor Vehicles Act

[I]  Monsoon likely to begin withdrawing next week

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Soaring airfares won't go down anytime soon

[I]  CBDT launches one-time facility for tax offences

[I]  Cautious optimism supports dollar ahead of ECB

[I]  India for safeguards to counter import surge

[I]  Infra companies seek more time to evaluate 3rd bundle of toll-operate-transfer highway projects

[I]  Part of proposed housing sector package: Fund on cards to offer guarantee for home loans

[I]  Tax offences, failure to pay TDS up to Rs 25 lakh not be prosecuted by taxman

[I]  Govt to announce scrappage policy shortly: Nitin Gadkari

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Flyers to be under watch at airports for signs of nervousness, anxiety

[I]  PE investors make a beeline for start-ups to generate higher returns

[I]  10-year bond yields rise, may become tough for banks to pass on rate cuts

[I]  Overnight schemes gain traction as Sebi tightens norms on liquid funds

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11078;  USDINR DGCX: 71.5425;  DJIA Mini: 27260;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7372;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21788;  EUR-USD: 1.1013; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.21;  Gold (Spot): 1495

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

12 Sep 2019

AMAZING ANGELS ARE PLACED AROUND YOU; INCLUDING YOU. WISHING AN ADORABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Sep 2019

 

The possibility of a slowdown “has gone up” around the world but the world’s major central banks still have the capability of responding, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s plans for a final burst of monetary stimulus before his term ends is running into opposition, raising the prospect he will have to temper or hold off on launching a bond-buying program. The median U.S. household income remained essentially flat at $63,179 in 2018 after three straight years of growth. The number of job openings decreased in July from a year earlier for the second consecutive month, underscoring slowing demand for new workers, though opportunities remain plentiful for job seekers in the US. China’s consumer inflation rate kept up an accelerated pace in August as the price of pork, a mainstay of the Chinese diet, rose at its fastest clip in eight years. India, ASEAN agree to review goods FTA pact, make it simpler.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China scraps purchasing cap for approved foreign investors

[I]  Brussels braced for EU trade and tech battles with US

[I]  Netanyahu vows to extend Israeli sovereignty in West Bank

[I]  US colleges look to insure against impact of trade war

[I]  Germany vows to loosen purse strings in economic crisis

[I]  Johnson intensifies efforts to find new Brexit deal

 

REUTERS

[I]  Bond yields, stock prices supported ahead of central bank meetings

[I]  South Korea to lodge WTO complaint over Japan's export curbs on Weds

[I]  Japan's Abe to draft rising star Koizumi in broad cabinet reshuffle - media

[I]  Hong Kong protesters boo Chinese anthem, as leader warns against interference

[I]  India and Nepal open South Asia’s first cross-border oil pipeline

[I]  Germany can pump 'many, many billions' into economy: Scholz

[I]  Declining U.S. vacancies point to slowing job growth

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Investors Scouring the World for Yield Turn to South Korea

[I]  Even Bears Are Backing One Group of Australian Retailers

[I]  Forget Germany, the Real Fiscal Policy Tightwads Are in Sweden

[I]  Some Investors Actually Make Money on Negative-Yielding Debt

[I]  IMF Urges German Government Spending to Revive Flagging Economy

[I]  Zimbabwe Establishes Monetary Policy Committee in Stability Bid

[I]  Japan Tries to Learn Lessons From Its 2014 Sales Tax Blow

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Median U.S. Household Income Showed No Growth in 2018

[I]  U.S. Job Openings Cool in Slowing Labor Market

[I]  Treasury Secretary Details Plans for Fannie, Freddie

[I]  Opposition Mounts to Draghi’s Plans for a Last ECB Stimulus Package

[I]  BOE’s Carney: Central Banks Have Weapons to Fight Next Downturn

[I]  Chinese Consumer Prices Fattened by Precious Pork

[I]  China’s Trade Numbers Send More Distress Signals

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Task force ‘to speed up spending on infrastructure’

[I]  Independent Financial Advisors blame MFs for the mess in debt schemes: Survey

[I]  Coal mine auction: Bidders flag distance of new blocks from consuming centres

[I]  India, ASEAN agree to review goods FTA pact, make it simpler

[I]  Highway development economically viable: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  NHAI board clears land monetization policy to part-fund land acquisition costs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Eyes on trade, India and US are all set to bury the hatchet

[I]  For auto slump, FM blames millennials

[I]  Govt wants a regulator for private-run trains

[I]  India may be running low on ways to spur growth

[I]  Dollar drifts down as trade-deal progress stokes cautious risk appetite

[I]  Centre to pump in Rs 8,000 crore in J&K to boost income of farmers and traders

[I]  India-China spat delays deal covering a third of global trade

[I]  Task Force in process to identify infra projects: Sitharaman

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Corporate bond issuances on the upswing, reach Rs 5.45 trillion till August

[I]  Govt's big plan to push EVs: Rs 40,000-crore subsidies in the works

[I]  With 10% salary hike, a good year for employees of listed companies

[I]  Start-ups in Delhi-NCR command highest private market valuation

[I]  2% of Indians loyal to brands; discounts don't keep them hooked: Experts

[I]  Economists paint a grim picture, lower India's FY20 GDP growth forecast

[I]  Indian farmers, small businesses will soon travel to woo investors in US

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11023;  USDINR DGCX: 72.0575;  DJIA Mini: 26879;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7286;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21519;  EUR-USD: 1.1051; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.79;  Gold (Spot): 1491

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 Sep 2019