THIS WEEKEND BLESSES US WITH GUIDANCE, VICTORY, SUCCESS, PROVISION, PROTECTION, COMFORT, FAITH AND REWARD

Macro Economic News 12 May 2018

 

Oil prices, the dollar, sanctions, trade tensions, trips to the International Monetary Fund and shock of election results, financial markets felt turbulence this week with ramifications for the world economy. Emerging markets are facing perhaps their biggest stress test since the Federal Reserve’s 2013 “taper tantrum” episode. Currency volatility and capital flows are among the worries on the horizon in Asia, while central banks across emerging markets are being put on the spot to manage fresh stresses, particularly in India. Almost two dozen key EMs will decide on interest rates over the next two weeks, but Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell says he’s confident these markets can handle policy normalization in advanced economies.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China buys up flying schools as pilot demand rises

[I]  The New World Order: Donald Trump goes it alone

[I]  Workers of the world unite in green spaces

[I]  Mahathir comeback turns former protégés’ worlds upside down

[I]  ECB head Draghi backs France’s call to complete banking union

[I]  Argentines fear return of IMF ‘bad guys’

[I]  US ambassador defends criticism of Germany on Iran

[I]  The House of Lords is leaping to the defence of UK democracy

 

REUTERS

[I]  Bad loans push four state banks' loss to $1.74 billion

[I]  India's industrial growth slows to five-month low in March

[I]  India and Nepal PMs launch construction of 900 MW power plant

[I]  Pompeo promises North Korea future 'brimming with prosperity' if it denuclearises

[I]  No trade war with Germany, U.S. ambassador promises

[I]  In an interplanetary first, NASA to fly a helicopter on Mars

[I]  Negotiators fail to reach NAFTA deal, Trump launches new attack

[I]  U.S. import prices, surveys point to moderate inflation

[I]  Take Five: World markets themes for the week ahead

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Canada and Mexico Downplay Urgency to Reach Nafta Deal Next Week

[I]  Mexico Takes First Steps in Annual Oil Hedging Program

[I]  Symantec Mystery Probe Has Market Imagining the Worst

[I]  Bitcoin Faces 'Death Cross' After Falling Below $9,000

[I]  Fed Study Shows U.S. Hikes Hit High-CPI Emerging Markets Hardest

[I]  Emerging-Market Gains Leave Argentina, Turkey Behind

[I]  Egypt's Sovereign Rating Raised by S&P on Economic Revival

[I]  Argentine Peso's Wild Ride Is Getting Even Wilder

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early May

[I]  As Nafta Deadline Nears, Hopes for Deal Focus on Autos

[I]  Quotas Make a Comeback as Countries Seek U.S. Tariff Exemptions

[I]  Why Americans Aren’t Feeling Wage Gains

[I]  Canada Shed Jobs in April, While Wages Rose to Near Six-Year High

[I]  U.S. Raises Pressure on Iran With Sanctions on Currency Exchange

[I]  U.S. Is Likely to Add About 15,000 Work Visas This Summer

[I]  In a Dollarized World, Rising Dollar Spells Pain

[I]  Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020

[I]  Economists See Fed Raising Rates in June, Then September

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI asks listed firms to set up a panel to monitor unlisted outfits

[I]  No consensus on GST concession for digital payments

[I]  SEBI mandates secretarial audits for listed companies

[I]  Crypto exchanges join hands against RBI

[I]  Industrial output slips to 5-month low of 4.4% in March

[I]  FCI wants Rs. 1/kg hike in wheat open market sale price in FY19

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Oil at $100 is a possibility next year, Bank of America says

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $1.4 billion to $418.9 billion

[I]  Government bond auction disappoints for 4th straight week

[I]  GoM on sops for digital payments under GST to study revenue impact

[I]  Demand for cotton seeds in Punjab down 20-30% from year ago, say companies

[I]  US sanctions on Iran may help boost Indian commodity exports

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Industrial production slips to 5-month low of 4.4% in March

[I]  PMO calls meet with Power Ministry, leading lenders on stressed assets

[I]  10% drop in margin for seafood shippers this year on lower American demand

[I]  Renewable energy dispute: WTO sets up panel to resolve India-US row

[I]  Gems and jewellery sector risky, says State Bank of India

[I]  RBI's net buying of dollar from spot market declines in March to $996 mn

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

12 May 2018

THIS MORNING, EXPERIENCE CELESTIAL LOVE, PEACE AND FUN

Macro Economic News 11 May 2018

 

Trump announces the date and time for his meeting with Kim Jong Un. And a tepid inflation report boosts U.S. stocks to the highest in seven weeks. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about. An eventful week may close with a whimper with little in the way of key data expected Friday.  Second-tier reports including Aussie home loans, Singapore retail sales and Hong Kong GDP are on tap. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is set for its biggest weekly gain in a month, while bond traders will be watching Australia 10-year yields to see just how much further below Treasuries they can go.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Italy’s populist parties edge closer to deal to govern

[I]  Mahathir returns weighed down by baggage and promises

[I]  US oil producers battle to meet Iran shortfall

[I]  Land of fairytale castles offers Brexit inspiration

[I]  Bank of England holds rates and plays down economic ‘soft patch’

[I]  Asian companies braced for impact of US sanctions on Iran

[I]  UK businesses suffer series of shareholder rebellions

 

REUTERS

[I]  Trump seeks 'very meaningful' summit in Singapore with North Korea

[I]  Relief for solar producers as government reneges on import duty

[I]  China plans central custody accounts for payment platforms to trim risks: state media

[I]  Trump seeks 'very meaningful' summit in Singapore with North Korea

[I]  Oil prices remain near multi-year highs on looming U.S. sanctions against Iran

[I]  Dollar steps back from 2018 peak on softer U.S. inflation

[I]  Canada's Freeland says 'getting closer' to NAFTA deal

[I]  Column: Oil price rise poses challenge for sanctions policy

[I]  U.S. consumer prices rise slightly; labor market tightening

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Welcome to the New Straight-Talking Reserve Bank of New Zealand

[I]  JPMorgan Applies for China Venture Control After Dimon Visit

[I]  American Oil Exports Flip Influence in Iran Enforcement: Goldman

[I]  What Happened in the World Economy This Week and What It Means

[I]  BOE Is Losing Time to Create Breathing Room Before Brexit Hits

[I]  U.K. Lawmakers Blast ‘Absurd’ Use of RPI in Student Loans

[I]  Indonesia Has a $22 Billion Buffer for Defending Its Currency, Bank of America Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Why Americans Aren’t Feeling Wage Gains

[I]  U.S. Raises Pressure on Iran With Sanctions on Currency Exchange

[I]  Economists See Fed Raising Rates in June, Then September

[I]  Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Stay Near Historically Low Level

[I]  Treasury: Federal Budget Surplus for April Largest on Record

[I]  U.S. Is Likely to Add About 15,000 Work Visas This Summer

[I]  BOE Bullish on U.K. Economy as It Leaves Rates Unchanged

[I]  China Draws Up Shopping List of American Goods to Avoid Trade War

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Banks bat for ‘Swiss Challenge’ method in IBC resolution cases

[I]  Govt tightens norms for independent directors

[I]  Providing incentives for digital payment under GST may be tricky

[I]  Even kin of independent directors should not have financial links with firms, promoters: Govt

[I]  ‘US sanctions on Iran will not dent India’s exports’

[I]  Start-ups can allot shares to staff from Day 1, says MCA

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Closely monitoring situation post-US pullout of Iran deal: India

[I]  Falling rupee to take FY19 trade deficit to 4-year high of 6.4%: Report

[I]  India underreported its market price support for wheat, rice: US tells WTO

[I]  ​Merchant exporters may receive Govt incentives

[I]  UP plans to raise Rs 12,000 crore for India’s longest expressway

[I]  Why India requires a bigger government, not smaller

[I]  Government may set up arbitration council via Ordinance

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Banks are designing a scheme for bailing out stressed power assets

[I]  Auto sales advance 17.5% to 2,379,718 vehicles in April, says Siam

[I]  India Inc's April M&A deal tally rises 8-fold to $19 bn: Report

[I]  RBI regulations create roadblocks for peer-to-peer lending companies

[I]  GST likely on banks 'free' services as they are actually 'charging' clients

[I]  Crude shock: CAD ghost to haunt India again in FY19 as oil prices soar

[I]  New US complaint at WTO on India's farmer subsidy

 

 

MARKETS (7:45 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10783;  USDINR DGCX: 67.2550;  DJIA Mini: 24724;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7686;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22683;  EUR-USD: 1.1913; Crude Oil (WTI): 71.34;  Gold (Spot): 1320          

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 May 2018

THIS MORNING, EVERYTHING AROUND IS LOVING AND HARMONIOUS

Macro Economic News 10 May 2018

 

President Donald Trump has turned his attention to securing a peace agreement with North Korea, which just released three detained Americans. Meanwhile, the European Union is desperately trying to hold the Iran nuclear accord together. Trump's decision to exit the pact left companies—which originally rushed to do business with Iran—scrambling to get out. Chinese PPI and CPI are due in the Asia morning after a report showed wholesale prices in the U.S. rose less than forecast. U.S. CPI is due Thursday. New Zealand kicked off Asia central bank action by holding rates at a record low, with Malaysia and the Philippines due later Thursday. In Europe, the BOE is expected to hold rates steady.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU to seek exemptions from new US sanctions on Iran

[I]  Argentines shocked by IMF loan request

[I]  Italy’s populist parties given 24 hours to strike alliance

[I]  US turns economic might on its allies over Iran

[I]  Erdogan pledges to curb inflation and halt lira slide

[I]  China poised to profit as Europe companies feel Iran pain

[I]  Iran wants to make nuclear deal work despite show of defiance

[I]  Germany’s boom to create extra €63bn in tax revenues

[I]  China, Japan and South Korea draw closer on trade

 

REUTERS

[I]  Europeans work to save Iran deal, and business, after Trump pulls out

[I]  China April producer inflation picks up for first time in seven months

[I]  IMF deal would secure Argentina funds through Macri's term: finance minister

[I]  BOJ's April meeting laid groundwork for future stimulus exit: summary

[I]  Dollar resurgence to be short-lived, euro still favored: Reuters poll

[I]  Risk of higher oil prices, says Goldman Sachs

[I]  Buyers seek U.S. waivers to buy Iranian oil

[I]  IMF not very concerned about FX pressure in Indonesia, Philippines

[I]  India's April gold imports plunge 39 percent on weak demand: GFMS 

[I]  U.S. producer prices rise slightly on weak hotel costs

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Stuck Between Trump and Iran, EU Lacks Plan for Nuclear Deal

[I]  Mahathir Wins in Historic Malaysia Power Shift

[I]  Iran Decision Risks Diluting Trump's Presidential Power

[I]  Here's What Wall Street Is Saying About Walmart's Flipkart Deal

[I]  Argentina Seeks 'Stand-By' Agreement With IMF

[I]  Philippine GDP Growth Exceeds 6% on Government Spending Boost

[I]  China Factory Inflation Pauses Slide as Consumer Prices Ease

[I]  U.K. House-Price Gauge Drops to 5 1/2-Year Low as London Slumps

[I]  Saudi Arabia's Safety-Net Spending Wipes Out New Tax Gains

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Limbo Lingers for the European Union

[I]  In a Dollarized World, Rising Dollar Spells Pain

[I]  U.S. Producer Prices Edge Up 0.1%

[I]  Mexican Inflation Hit the Brakes in April

[I]  Why It’s a Good Time to Look for a Job

[I]  Trump Withdraws U.S. From ‘Defective’ Iran Nuclear Deal

[I]  Powell Warns Against Overstating Impact of Fed Policy on Global Financial Conditions

[I]  Real Time Economics: Any Sign of Inflation? | Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Drops Iran Deal | Americans to Employers: I Quit

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India doesn’t see major fallout from US exiting Iran N-deal

[I]  Road Ministry moves GST Council for lower rate on replacements for scrapped trucks

[I]  Fraudulent acts: Audit firms will now have to pay for their partners’ sins

[I]  Shopping spree done, Big Three set to dominate India’s e-comm space

[I]  Challenges ahead, but Indian companies may get better deals: Energy experts

[I]  IRDAI relaxes norms for empanelled actuaries

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Oil at $80 in medium term? Iran chaos suggests so

[I]  Bond yields jump after RBI revises list of open market ops purchase securities

[I]  IMF expects India to grow at 7.4 per cent in FY19

[I]  Working with ministries to develop plans for 12 champion services sector: Commerce Secretary Rita Teaotia

[I]  Govt considering 100 per cent FDI in insurance intermediaries

[I]  Social Security Code provides for linking fine with inflation

[I]  CAG: Divestment panel indulged in anomalies

[I]  GST digital discounts may cost Rs 15,000 crore

[I]  DoT seeks details of WiFi calling services from Trai

[I]  Ordering food on train will pinch you a bit more, all thanks to a new tax definition

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Government likely to withdraw tax notice on free banking services

[I]  Mind the generation gap: Why brands score low on customer experience

[I]  Commercial vehicle makers expect to surpass 20% growth of 2017-18

[I]  Land continues to remain a major concern for infra, energy sector in India

[I]  Maintain tightening bias due to increased inflation pressure: IMF to RBI

[I]  Govt approves green licence plates for electric vehicles

 

MARKETS (8:00 am)       

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10775;  USDINR DGCX: 67.5075;  DJIA Mini: 24550;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7656;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22446;  EUR-USD: 1.1863; Crude Oil (WTI): 71.68;  Gold (Spot): 1313          

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 May 2018