ENJOY THE EXCITEMENT OF ALIVENESS AND THE ALIVENESS OF EXCITEMENT. WISHING A WEEKEND WITH TRANSCENDING FREE WILL.

Macro Economic News 25 Jan 2020

 

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that the growth slowdown in India appears to be temporary and that she expects the momentum to improve soon. Corporate and income tax collection for the current year is likely to fall for the first time in at least two decades, several senior tax officials told Reuters, amid a sharp fall in economic growth and cut in corporate tax reduction. The United States wants India to buy at least another $5-6 billion worth of American farm goods if New Delhi wants to win reinstatement of a key U.S. trade concession and seal a wider pact, four sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. U.S. increased tariffs on derivative steel products by an additional 25 percent and duties on derivative aluminum products by an additional 10 percent. The U.S. improvement contrasted with weaker economic performance in some of the world’s other major economies. Europe’s economy remained a global weak spot. UK may also use high tariff threat to raise pressure in trade negotiations while EU seeks power to sanction UK over any Brexit deal breaches. Nigeria tightens screws on banks with higher cash requirements and Forex reserve in India hits lifetime high of $462.16 billion. ESIC payroll data sows India created 14.33 lakh new jobs in November while a report expects Fiscal deficit may widen to 3.8% for current financial year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Brussels builds alliance to bypass US block on WTO judges

[I]  Brazilian strongman snubbed in west to be guest of honour at India’s Republic Day

[I]  Eurozone makes weak start to year as services stall

[I]  Data from France offsets better than forecast German activity in PMI surveys

[I]  France and Australia confirm first cases of disease and US second of Sars-like virus

[I]  Private sector confidence bounce points to stronger economy

[I]  Macron defies protests over pension reforms

[I]  EU seeks power to sanction UK over any Brexit deal breaches

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. pushing India to buy $5-6 billion more farm goods to seal trade deal - sources

[I]  Exclusive: India faces first fall in direct taxes in at least two decades - sources

[I]  Exclusive: India likely to raise import duties on more than 50 items next week

[I]  Exclusive: Indonesia to increase imports from India amid New Delhi-Malaysia spat - sources

[I]  Exclusive: India's rice exports fall sharply as sanctions delay payments from Iran

[I]  Trump increases tariffs on derivative steel, aluminum products from some countries

[I]  UK to use high tariff threat to raise pressure in trade negotiations - The Times

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Have We Reached Peak Globalization?

[I]  Libya Oil Shutdown Is a ‘Bullet in the Head,’ Says Bank Governor

[I]  Charting the World Economy: Fed Can Rest Easy, BOE in Tough Spot

[I]  Nigeria Tightens Screws on Banks With Higher Cash Requirements

[I]  Canadian Retail Sales Rebound in November, Beating Forecasts

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Business Activity Increases in Early 2020

[I]  Climate Change—and Ideas for Tackling It—Dominated Davos

[I]  Wuhan Virus Could Hit China’s Economy Harder Than SARS

[I]  New Warehouse Supply Projected to Exceed Demand Over Next Two Years

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Wrapped Up 2019 on Solid Note

[I]  The Stock Market Where Family Succession Still Matters

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Direct tax mop-up to fall this year for the first time in two decades

[I]  Growth slowdown in India is temporary, says IMF chief

[I]  RBI doubles FPIs’ debt investment limit

[I]  ‘India going through a slowdown like 2001-03, but there’s no crisis’

[I]  Financial services sector optimistic about turnaround

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US pushes India to buy $5-6 billion more farm goods

[I]  Direct taxes may fall for first time in two decades

[I]  Forex reserve hits lifetime high of $462.16 billion

[I]  Govt to repeal Plantation Labour Act; tea industry concerned

[I]  14.33 lakh new jobs created in November: ESIC payroll data

[I]  Fiscal deficit may widen to 3.8% for current financial year: Report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Indian growth slowdown temporary, expect momentum to improve: IMF chief

[I]  India faces first fall in direct taxes in at least two decades: Report

[I]  Parliamentary panel invites suggestions on Personal Data Protection Bill

[I]  India likely to ask Brazil to expedite negotiations for trade pact

[I]  India, US agree to resolve amicably dispute over steel import duty

[I]  Dairy cooperatives, companies spar over allowing imported milk powder

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

25 Jan 2020

GOD MADE US WITH MINDS TO THINK FREELY, WITH HEARTS TO LOVE FREELY AND WILLS TO OBEY FREELY. WISHING A LIBERATED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 24 Jan 2020

 

China is struggling to contain a deadly new coronavirus that has already infected hundreds. The experience of SARS in 2003 suggests there will be a substantial hit to growth, at least in the short term. What really matters is how fast the spread is contained. US and France agree deal on digital tax while The Trump administration expects to secure trade deals with the European Union and Britain this year, but not India. Japan December core consumer inflation ticks up, but far from BOJ's target as slowing contraction in Japan factory activity eases fears of recession. Central banks are increasingly dabbling in digital currencies. RBA inflation target of 2%-3% hasn’t reached it’s the mid-point in more than half a decade but is set to surface as disasters fuel prices. A sharp rise in headline inflation would therefore shock markets, which are pricing in further RBA cuts this year. While Eurozone bankers in fresh push against negative rates, RBI is expected to hold rates on inflation concerns and likely fiscal boost as per Reuters poll. Insider trading by Indians is on the rise in the US coinciding with India ranking 80th in Corruption Perception Index. The government is expected to allow direct listing of Indian companies abroad as part of plan to allow them access a larger pool of capital and enable the move towards fuller account convertibility. RBI has allowed foreign portfolio investors to invest ₹1.5-lakh cr under ‘voluntary retention route’. Amid economic slowdown, housing sales has fallen by 9% in December quarter.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Alarm spreads over coronavirus despite China travel curbs

[I]  ECB kicks off policy battle as Lagarde launches strategic review

[I]  Eurozone bankers in fresh push against negative rates

[I]  US and France agree deal on digital tax

[I]  Candidate for EU bank watchdog rejected by lawmakers

[I]  German start-ups boosted by record number of drivers leasing cars

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI to hold rates on inflation concerns, fiscal boost likely: Reuters poll

[I]  India likely to fund some $28 billion of 2020/21 expenditure via off-budget borrowings - sources

[I]  Japan December core consumer inflation ticks up, but far from BOJ's target

[I]  Slowing contraction in Japan factory activity eases fears of recession: flash PMI

[I]  U.S. officials see EU, British trade deals in 2020, not India

[I]  U.S. to unveil crackdown on counterfeit, pirated e-commerce goods

[I]  Gloomy economic outlook overshadowed BOJ's Dec. meeting

[I]  Global economy snapback to prove elusive despite market joy - Reuters polls

[I]  ECB's Lagarde launches policy overhaul that will leave no stone unturned

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore’s Leader Says Economic Rebound Depends on Global Calm

[I]  Big Economic Reads: Climate and Trade Qualms Echo in the Alps

[I]  Bank of Canada Pivot Raises Stakes for Retail Sales Numbers

[I]  Lagarde Sets ECB on Policy Autopilot While It Stops to Think

[I]  Central Banks Are Increasingly Dabbling in Digital Currencies

[I]  RBA Inflation Target Set to Surface as Disasters Fuel Prices

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Wuhan Virus Could Hit China’s Economy Harder Than SARS

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Wrapped Up 2019 on Solid Note

[I]  Europe Girds for Trade Battle

[I]  After Bankruptcy, Nearly Half of Retailers Close All Stores

[I]  Shadow Banks Come Into the Light in Global Lending

[I]  U.S. Seeks to Reset Clock on China Engagement

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI doubles FPIs’ debt investment limit

[I]  Textile industry worried as Govt scraps export sops

[I]  BS-VI emission norms to force a 10-12 per cent rise in prices of two-wheelers: ICRA

[I]  India, Brazil to discuss trade pact, cooperation in bio-fuel during Bolsonaro’s visit

[I]  First look: India may have a good monsoon in 2020

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India ranked 80th in Corruption Perception Index

[I]  Soon, Indian cos can directly list overseas

[I]  Insider trading by Indians on the rise in US

[I]  India plans fourth Summit with Africa in September

[I]  Public spending's crowding-out effect short-term in India: Study

[I]  Niti Aayog to develop National Data Platform

[I]  India Inc expecting budget to lower personal income tax rates

[I]  Govt mulls mediation to solve tax issues with companies

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt seeks Rs 10,000-cr interim dividend from RBI to bridge fiscal gap

[I]  PE, VC investments in India grew 28% to $48 billion in 2019, says EY data

[I]  Housing sales fall 9% in December quarter amid economic slowdown

[I]  137 countries on board for OECD digital tax plan: Gurria at WEF Davos

[I]  Banks continue to see drop in small study loans, but high-value ones rise

[I]  WEF unveils new internet security principles to help protect 1 bn users

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12186;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3625;  DJIA Mini: 29141;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7187;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23782;  EUR-USD: 1.1051; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.66;  Gold (Spot): 1561

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
24 Jan 2020

MIND TO LET THE PEACE GET THE FULLEST SPACE OF MIND. WISHING A COMPOSED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 23 Jan 2020

 

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in December, a sign historically low unemployment and low mortgage rates are propelling the U.S. housing market as it enters a new year, however the share of American workers in labour unions fell to a fresh record low last year. After China trade deal, Europe and U.K. next on Trump's to-do list while European politicians said they are prepared to defend themselves and would retaliate against any American tariffs. Trump and EU promise to press on to reach trade deal as trade tensions erupt between London and Washington. Japan December exports fall 6.3% year-on-year and Japan's refinancing debt issuance next year seen lowest in decade while Japanese funds go looking for 6% yields and are buying record Asian bonds. Central Banks Team Up to Study Case for Digital Currencies whilst Bank Indonesia is seen holding as currency rallies. India scores highest among South Asian nations in Women, Business and Law Index whereas India falls to 51st position in EIU’s Democracy Index. Investments in infrastructure was up by 25% in 2019, highest since 2016 while a study finds that India's public spending on old-age pensions a mere 1% of GDP. Coincidently Indian Rupee was one of the worst performers among its Asian peers in the past 1 year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump and EU promise to press on to reach trade deal

[I]  China quarantines city in effort to contain viral outbreak

[I]  Trade tensions erupt between London and Washington

[I]  Companies sign up to environmental disclosure

[I]  Libya oil output set to hit lowest level since Gaddafi’s fall

 

REUTERS

[I]  Mumbai bets on all-night shopping to lift India's economy

[I]  Facing economic crisis, Lebanon's government weighs options

[I]  U.S.'s Pompeo says real reform key to international aid for Lebanon

[I]  U.S. economy to coast, no big boost expected from trade deal: Reuters poll

[I]  Finance wants competitiveness role for UK watchdogs after Brexit

[I]  Japan December exports fall 6.3% year-on-year - MOF

[I]  Japan's refinancing debt issuance next year seen lowest in decade - sources

[I]  After China trade deal, Europe and U.K. next on Trump's to-do list

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore Home-Price Growth Slows as Curbs’ Effects Linger

[I]  Australia’s Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 5.1% in December

[I]  City of London Calls for Regulators’ Help Competing After Brexit

[I]  Turkish Banks Turn the Corner as 2020 Earnings Outlook Brightens

[I]  Japan Goes Looking for 6% Yields as Funds Buy Record Asian Bonds

[I]  China Nightmare, Asia Turning Point, Global Sweet Spot: Eco Day

[I]  Central Banks Team Up to Study Case for Digital Currencies

[I]  China’s Trying to Break Addiction to Corporate Bank Loans

[I]  Bank Indonesia Seen on Hold as Currency Rallies: Decision Guide

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Wrapped Up 2019 on Solid Note

[I]  U.S. Seeks to Reset Clock on China Engagement

[I]  U.S. Union Membership Hits Another Low

[I]  Trade Tensions With Europe Flare as Trump Flexes Economic Muscle

[I]  Europe Girds for Trade Battle

[I]  Trump Ends Davos Trip Talking Trade, WTO and Impeachment

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India scores highest among South Asian nations in Women, Business and Law Index

[I]  Cabinet approves amendments, extension in Acts dealing with GST, VAT

[I]  India falls to 51st position in EIU’s Democracy Index

[I]  Govt gives nod for pact with Brazil for cooperation in geology, mineral resources

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Painful journey of auto cos may end in Q3

[I]  Can Mumbai's 24-hr trading bet lift economy?

[I]  Now put exit date in EPFO records yourself

[I]  Economy may rebound, but there's a catch

[I]  Maintaining database: National Business Register on anvil

[I]  India joins WEF reskilling initiative as founding member

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  15th Finance Commission may hike grants, cut devolution to states

[I]  Business leaders come together, set up body for climate change action

[I]  Rupee one of the worst performers among its Asian peers in the past 1 year

[I]  How India's high-value farm exports are suffering under new restrictions

[I]  Govt eyeing asset monetisation to make up for the disinvestment gap

[I]  State govts slash price of electricity generated by sugar mills by 50%

[I]  Investments in infrastructure up by 25% in 2019, highest since 2016

[I]  India's public spending on old-age pensions a mere 1% of GDP: Study

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12139;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1350;  DJIA Mini: 29125;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7506;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23878;  EUR-USD: 1.1088; Crude Oil (WTI): 55.90;  Gold (Spot): 1558

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
23 Jan 2020

LET YOUR ALIVENESS ENTHUSE WITH A LOVING WONDER. WISHING A LIVELY DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Jan 2020

 

China battles spread of Sars-like coronavirus as China virus spreads to the U.S., curbing travel plans and spooking markets. U.S. threats to place tariffs on some of its closest allies—just days after reaching an initial trade deal with China—show that economic pressure is still President Trump’s preferred weapon in international disputes. UK pushes on with digital tax in face of US anger while in Davos, bankers push back against climate action calls. Eurozone corporate loan demand slides for first time in six years whilst Australian consumer gloom worsens amid devastating bushfires. South Korea posts slowest annual GDP growth since financial crisis despite it growing at fastest quarterly pace since 2017. Indonesia plans to overhaul laws to raise foreign investment whereas Malaysia rate cut prospects ease as risks recede. To give a fillip to the country’s exports which have been falling for the last five months, Indian exporters have sought an export development fund with an annual corpus of half a percentage of annual exports and a double tax deduction for MSMEs. Car sales in India are back in red zone, again while financial crisis in tea sector deepens and companies put up estates for sale whereas to build strong ecosystem, govt sets up National Startup Advisory Council.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UK to push on with digital tax in face of US anger

[I]  Saudi women embrace new freedoms

[I]  Turkey eyes EU aid as investment pays off for Syrians

[I]  Davos 2020: Bankers push back against climate action calls

[I]  China battles spread of Sars-like coronavirus

[I]  Putin reshuffles Russia cabinet to try to spur economy

[I]  Eurozone corporate loan demand slides for first time in six years

[I]  Indonesia plans to overhaul laws to raise foreign investment

 

REUTERS

[I]  China virus spreads to U.S., curbing travel plans and spooking markets

[I]  Indian state refiners near first annual deals to buy Russian oil - sources

[I]  Australian consumer gloom worsens amid devastating bushfires

[I]  South Korea posts slowest annual GDP growth since financial crisis 

[I]  South Korea central bank warns spread of coronavirus may hurt private consumption 

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Foreigners Dump Indian Bonds Fearing Widening Budget Deficit

[I]  Investors in India Hope to See Tax on Equity Gains Scrapped

[I]  As Coronavirus Spreads, Economists Run the Numbers on China

[I]  S. Korean Economy Grows at Fastest Quarterly Pace Since 2017

[I]  Even the Richest Nordic Economy Isn’t Giving Up Monetary Support

[I]  Big Australia Investors to Take Riskier Bets in Hunt for Returns

[I]  Billions of Dollars May Come for India Stocks After Rule Tweak

[I]  Malaysia Rate Cut Prospects Ease as Risks Recede: Decision Guide

[I]  U.S. Anti-OPEC Efforts Fading as Cartel’s Influence Seen Waning

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trade Tensions With Europe Flare as Trump Flexes Economic Muscle

[I]  President Trump Lauds U.S. Economy as He Opens World Economic Forum

[I]  IMF Predicts Global Economy Will Rebound in 2020

[I]  Foreign Investment Falls to Near-Decade Low as Globalization Slows

[I]  Slower Growth Has Latin America Bracing for More Instability

[I]  Davos’s Creator Still Believes the Conference Can Bridge Divides

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  FIEO seeks export development fund, double tax deduction for MSMEs

[I]  NITI Aayog’s push for island tourism has no takers

[I]  Zero budget natural farming good for soil, but may leave India hungry: Study

[I]  IMF cuts India’s growth estimate further

[I]  10% increase likely in Bengal potato output this season

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Car sales are back in red zone, again

[I]  Need to have fairer, more equitable terms in trade relations: Piyush Goyal

[I]  BRICS countries need to deepen innovation ties: Report

[I]  India needs $2.64 tn investment to meet SDGs by 2030: Report

[I]  Nearly half billion people lack decent jobs: UN

[I]  CII suggests easing of certain norms to enhance liquidity for NBFCs, HFCs

[I]  Budget Wish List: Simplify tax laws, dispute resolution, say experts

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  FMCG recovery likely in 2020; Nielsen, CRISIL predict double-digit growth

[I]  Real estate companies rush to occupy growing co-living market in India

[I]  Financial crisis in tea sector deepens; companies put up estates for sale

[I]  To build strong ecosystem, govt sets up National Startup Advisory Council

[I]  Despite recovery in exports to US, India's textile exports decline 8%

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12220;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2950;  DJIA Mini: 29239;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7554;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23990;  EUR-USD: 1.1078; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.34;  Gold (Spot): 1553

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
22 Jan 2020