WISH THIS WEEKEND BRINGS DECISIVE FUN AND PLEASURE. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 11 Aug 2018

Employers are finding new ways to cut health care costs. China plans tariffs on $60 billion of US products. UK hikes interest rates for second time in a decade. Americans invested a lot more money overseas in 2017. Especially in Switzerland. India postpones retaliatory tariffs on US goods for a second time. India's fast-growing economy gets another interest rate hike. 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Turkish lira plunges as Trump takes tariff action

[I]  US-China trade spat could hit oil demand, IEA warns

[I]  Xi Jinping’s father elevated to China’s pantheon of communist greats

[I]  Industry body warns on proposed Russian metals tax

[I]  US bull market continues to ride out Trump risks

[I]  US core inflation rises at fastest pace in 10 years

[I]  Japan’s economy returns to growth in second quarter

REUTERS

[I]  Maldives seeks scaling back of Indian presence as it woos China

[I]  U.S.-Mexico NAFTA talks drag on as autos sticking points emerge

[I]  Bank sped up Manafort loan approval as CEO sought Trump cabinet job: witness

[I]  Far-right German leader sceptical of Bannon's anti-EU push

[I]  Trump imposes higher metals tariffs on Turkey

[I]  India's industrial output growth hits five-month high of 7 percent in June

[I]  Free-trade pacts hamper India's efforts to curb China textile imports

[I]  Gold in India shifts to discount, while China buying picks up

[I]  Russia tells Washington curbs on its banks would be act of economic war

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Embraces Market Pain With Little Concern of Contagion

[I]  PBOC Vows No ‘Strong’ Stimulus, Says Won't Use Yuan in Trade War

[I]  Euro Becomes Collateral Damage as Trump Amps Up Turkey Pressure

[I]  How Trump's Steel War on Turkey Is Set to Change Trade Flows

[I]  Turkey’s Meltdown Ripples Across Emerging Markets: Inside EM

[I]  Credit Market’s ‘Eyeball Valuations’ Raise Investors’ Eyebrows

[I]  Strong-Arm Governments Are Taking Over the Global Economy

[I]  Inflation Is Coming to Theater Near You as U.S. Companies Flex Pricing Power

[I]  EU Loses to Canada for No. 3 Wheat Exporter Title as Crops Fry

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Rising U.S. Consumer Prices AreEroding Wage Gains 

[I]  Trump Threatens Tariffs on Canadian-Made Cars 

[I]  Trump Vows to Double Metals Tariffs on Turkey, Escalating Dispute 

[I]  Economists See Growth Hitting 3% in 2018 

[I]  Turkey on the Economic Brink, Explained in a Dozen Charts

[I]  U.S. Budget Gap Widens

[I]  Canada Job Creation Surges in July

[I]  Pricey Housing Markets in West Are Cooling Off Most Quickly

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  With Rs. 80,675 cr in its account, govt plans Jan Dhan 2.0

[I]  IIP zooms to 7%, may push April-June quarter GDP to 7.5%

[I]  Agriculture Export Policy to be in line with WTO norms

[I]  ‘India can meet 300 mtpa steel production target by 2030’

[I]  India Inc comes good on operating profit but fixed costs temper net

[I]  Democratising the voting process at AGMs — the way forward

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Maldives wants to replace India with China

[I]  India Inc's January-July deal tally at $74 billion: Report

[I]  Fresh spells of rains boosts Kharif planting

[I]  Government starts countervailing investigations on certain steel items from China, Vietnam

[I]  The leaders and laggards behind India's world-beating growth

[I]  Ministry of corporate affairs deregisters 50,000 shell companies in a week

[I]  Parliament passes bill to amend law for speedy disposal of commercial disputes

[I]  Parliament passes bill to amend Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

[I]  No proposal to withdraw Rs 2,000 notes: Government

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  DoT is discussing a proposal for auctioning spectrum on a yearly basis

[I]  Govt plans to open up to 100 islands for eco-tourism in the next 12 months

[I]  At ODOP summit, President Kovind says UP can be a trillion dollar economy

[I]  Sowing of kharif crops at a steady pace despite deficit monsoon

Best Regards, ARBIND

11 Aug 2018

WISHING YOU A VERY ACCOMPLISHED DAY. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 10 Aug 2018

As the Turkish tumult continues and Russia’s rout rolls on. The Turkish lira tumbled, sinking to a fresh record low as concern about souring relations with the U.S. and runaway inflation outweighed the nation’s plans to stem a market rout. The U.S. Treasury just auctioned a record amount of 10- and 30-year debt with relative ease. Looking at American markets, there’s little sign of the angst that’s been roiling emerging economies. The RBA will release its quarterly statement on monetary policy, China may report money supply figures, Singapore retail sales, Hong Kong GDP, and industrial production for Malaysia and India.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Diplomatic rift with Washington drives Turkish lira to fresh low

[I]  Pakistan lines up $4bn loan from Saudi-backed bank

[I]  Italian equities take investors on a round trip

[I]  Russia slams ‘unpredictable’ US after new sanctions

[I]  US tariffs risk hitting highest levels for 50 years, says ECB

[I]  Saudi sovereign wealth fund scrambles for resources

REUTERS

[I]  Dollar approaches 13-month high; rouble, Turkish lira downtrodden

[I]  China paper rebuts trade war criticism, says 'an elephant can't hide'

[I]  Japan's economy rebounds on brisk spending but trade rifts cloud outlook

[I]  Australia central bank charts steady course for rates as inflation lags economic growth

[I]  India offers welfare schemes 3.5 million tonnes of pulses at subsidised prices

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  On Devaluation Anniversary, China Logs Win in Yuan Campaign

[I]  China Rout Puts Brakes on Share Sales as Firms Favor Bonds

[I]  August Has a History of Crushing Dreams for Stock-Market Bulls

[I]  Oil Is Losing Its Grip Over the Currencies of Top Energy Producers

[I]  China’s Exports Are Homeward Bound

[I]  Foreign Investors Keep Buying Chinese Stocks as Markets Go Wild

[I]  Hong Kong's Humming Economy Braces for Trade War, Rates Squeeze

[I]  Philippine Central Bank Chief Ready to Act Again If Needed

[I]  Japan’s Economy Rebounds as Business Spends on Labor-Saving Tech

[I]  China's Regional Growth Divergence Adds to Debt Policy Dilemma

[I]  Asia's $184 Billion Debt Wall to Spark Buybacks, Bond Swaps

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists See Growth Hitting 3% in 2018 

[I]  Economists See Two More Fed Rate Increases This Year 

[I]  U.S. Producer Prices Tame in July 

[I]  China’s Tariff Turnaround: U.S. Crude Oil Drops Off the Target List 

[I]  Japan’s Economy Revs Up Again After Stalling

[I]  CBO: Debt Will Rise to ‘Unsustainable’ Levels if Congress Extends Tax Cuts, Maintains Spending

[I]  Pricey Housing Markets in West Are Cooling Off Most Quickly

[I]  China Retaliates With New Tariffs, Hunkering Down for Long Trade Fight

[I]  The Debate That Evenly Divides Economists: Is This a ‘Trade War?’ 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Centre to crack down on delays in crop insurance claim payouts

[I]  PE, VC investments grew 45 per cent to $17 b till July: EY

[I]  India watching China’s measures to ease drug-import norms

[I]  PM to headline World Biofuel Day programme

[I]  Private sector NPS: Option for 75% equity investment by month-end, says PFRDA chief

[I]  Heavy monsoon rain hits Kerala’s plantation sector

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  EU foreign trade body maps plan to revive FTA talks

[I]  China-backed Asia trade pact to be examined by India panel

[I]  CFO optimism in July-September rises; monsoon, raw material costs key going forward

[I]  Mere deposit of goods to custodian not liable for GST: AAR

[I]  New ecommerce policy will help India in WTO negotiations: Commerce department

[I]  EPFO to be sole regulator for all categories of PFs: Parliamentary panel to Labour Ministry

[I]  PSUs should initiate process of appointing independent directors: Parliamentary panel

[I]  Lower tax rate to improve compliance: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Only 0.35% of I-T returns filed last year to be scrutinised: CBDT

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Nothing called partial defaulters, IBC must apply equally to all: RBI

[I]  Commercial leasing on a roll, rises 58% to 24-mn square feet in H1 of 2018

[I]  India's online retail market is a $50 bn opportunity waiting to be realised

[I]  Exporters approach various courts over restrictions under GST regime

[I]  GST to be slashed on more items if revenue increases, says Piyush Goyal

[I]  RBI should focus on streamlining credit pricing, monetary transmission: IMF

MARKETS (10:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11468  USDINR DGCX: 68.8975;  DJIA Mini: 25464;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7717;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22476;  EUR-USD: 1.1533; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.82;  Gold (Spot): 1213

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 Aug 2018

WISHING YOU A BEAUTIFUL AND PRODUCTIVE DAY. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 09 Aug 2018

China hits back against U.S. tariffs. The cryptocurrency selloff plumbs new depths. China confirmed that it will impose 25 percent tariffs on an additional $16 billion worth of imports from the U.S. from Aug. 23. The 2018 selloff in cryptocurrencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dented enthusiasts’ hopes for a VanEck exchange-traded fund backed by Bitcoin. Crude tumbled to a nearly seven-week low as the escalating trade dispute.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Saudi Arabia sells Canadian assets as dispute escalates

[I]  Pound’s weakness sends it back to October lows

[I]  US to sanction Russia over Skripal poisoning

[I]  China’s commitment to the Pacific may be overstated

[I]  China and US exchange $16bn blows in trade war

[I]  Germany and Spain reach deal over asylum returns

[I]  US regulators warned against reducing bank capital requirements

[I]  Russian ‘mood swing’ points to trouble for Putin

[I]  Casino shares plunge to 22-year low on valuation concerns

REUTERS

[I]  Chinese yuan to regain some ground if trade tensions ease: poll

[I]  Japan June core machinery orders fall 8.8 percent month-on-month

[I]  China to slap additional tariffs on $16 billion of U.S. goods

[I]  Chinese state media accuse U.S. of 'mobster mentality', vow to fight tariffs

[I]  Mexico's economy minister says 'encouraged' to continue NAFTA talks

[I]  UK house prices inch up, buy-to-let investors exit market: RICS

[I]  RBNZ holds rates but surprises with more dovish outlook

[I]  Reserve Bank of NZ governor says risks evenly balanced for interest rate cut or hike

[I]  Saudi-Canada dispute will not affect oil supplies: Saudi minister

[I]  Chinese exports accelerate even as Trump escalates trade war

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  BOJ Watchers Pare Back Expectations of Future Policy Changes

[I]  ‘Mystery’ Chinese Trades Fuel Aluminum's Biggest Gain Since May

[I]  The Numbers You Need to Watch to Predict Where the Yuan's Going

[I]  RBNZ Expects to Keep Rates at Record Low for Two More Years

[I]  U.K. Housing Market Stays Subdued as Brexit, Rates Deter Buyers

[I]  China Retaliates, Whither the Yuan, BOJ Could Stand Pat: Eco Day

[I]  Indonesian Growth Brings Relief Amid Widening Earnings Misses

[I]  Higher BOJ Yield Range Is Said to Be Too Low for Regional Banks

[I]  Russia ETFs See Heavy Trading Amid New Sanctions

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. to Impose Tariffs on Another $16 Billion in Chinese Imports 

[I]  China Retaliates With New Tariffs, Hunkering Down for Long Trade Fight 

[I]  China’s Imports Jump as It Digs In for a Trade Fight

[I]  U.S. to Impose Tariffs on Another $16 Billion in Chinese Imports

[I]  Jobs Go Unfilled as the Economy Expands 

[I]  Richmond Fed President Says Continued Low Interest Rates Are Tough to Justify 

[I]  Ultralow Rates Hit Italians’ Incomes More Than Germans, Says ECB 

[I]  Iranian Hackers Turn to Ransomware, Bitcoin as Economy Stalls

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India heading for a lower tea output as H1 output falls 5%

[I]  Monsoon peaks again even as depression weakens

[I]  India can be the engine of global growth for decades, says IMF

[I]  US-Russia hostility not in India's interest

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Banks are helping state govts go digital

[I]  Time to bond with the best and expand debt market

[I]  Average per capita income in last 4 years higher at nearly Rs 80,000

[I]  Australia committed to concluding a high-quality FTA with India, says Australian High Commissioner

[I]  India will need to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation: IMF

[I]  IMF asks India to consider simpler GST rate structure

[I]  Panel suggests higher threshold for NCLT cases

[I]  IMF lauds India’s reforms, sees faster growth

[I]  Government may bring next draft of e-commerce policy in 10 days

[I]  Government may clip wings of wilful defaulters soon

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Airlines may get nod to tap foreign loans; govt mulls external borrowing

[I]  Govt gets fiscal deficit cushion, RBI to pay Rs 500-bn dividend for FY18

[I]  India's MF industry one of the costliest globally: Ex-Sebi chief UK Sinha

[I]  Windfall commission perks up income of commodity world CEOs

[I]  Costly wheat in domestic, international markets to push up biscuit prices

[I]  Housing projects worth Rs 3.3 trillion stuck across India: PropEquity

[I]  Microfinance institutions plan to take IPO route to fund growth plans

MARKETS (06:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: --  USDINR DGCX: 68.6300;  DJIA Mini: 25505;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7705;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22547;  EUR-USD: 1.1609; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.81;  Gold (Spot): 1214

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 Aug 2018