SOMETIMES YOU NEED TO RUN BEFORE YOU WALK; ITS RAINING OPPORTUNITY. WISHING A DELICIOUS WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 29 Jun 2019

 

Failure of a large Indian non-banking financial company could cause as much damage as the collapse of a big commercial lender, the Reserve Bank of India said, stressing a need for greater surveillance of these firms. U.S. households spent at a solid pace in May, showing consumers remain a steady pillar in the economy despite perceived headwinds from abroad. U.S. household sentiment declined in June, a possible sign of softening public confidence about the economy headed into the summer. President Trump struck a conciliatory tone with other world leaders as the Group of 20 summit got started in Japan, soothing worries that he would provoke fresh tensions. Central bank’s quarterly survey showed Canadian business sentiment improved as more firms express optimism about their future sales prospects backed by domestic and foreign demand.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China’s Xi says rich countries ‘destroying’ trade system

[I]  Bank stocks get a fillip from Fed stress test results

[I]  EU closes in on plan for Brussels and ECB top jobs

[I]  Economists call for carbon tax to hit net zero goal

[I]  The rise and rise of a Vietnamese corporate empire

 

REUTERS

[I]  Crop planting slows in India on weak monsoon rains

[I]  India's current account gap narrows in fiscal fourth quarter on improved trade balance

[I]  U.S. banks play cat-and-mouse game with Fed on capital returns

[I]  G20 heads to stop short of denouncing protectionism in communique: Nikkei

[I]  World Bank chief urges reforms to attract investment amid trade uncertainty

[I]  Failure at a big Indian non-bank lender could cause large damage: RBI

[I]  Explainer: U.S.-China trade talks: where they are and what's at stake

[I]  Moderate U.S. consumer spending, inflation support rate cut

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The U.S. Has So Many Fat Pigs That Pork Prices Are at Decade Low

[I]  Bond Traders Are Eager to Get Past G-20 and Focus on Data Again

[I]  Hedge Fund Closings Outnumber Launches Again

[I]  Iran's OPEC Veteran Weathers Storms From Trump to Saudi Arabia

[I]  Golden Six Months for South African Stocks Defy Economic Gloom

[I]  U.S. Oil Output Tops 12 Million Barrels a Day for First Time

[I]  Markets Pricing in an Asymmetric Bet on G-20 Outcome

[I]  Business Sentiment Picks Up, Defying Trade Tensions

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Does Free College Work? Kalamazoo Offers Some Answers

[I]  Americans Increased Their Spending in May

[I]  U.S. Inflation Continues Recovery but Remains Below Fed Target

[I]  EU, South American Countries Reach Agreement on Trade

[I]  Federal Reserve Clears Big Banks to Boost Payouts to Investors

[I]  Trump Changes His Tone on Trade at G-20

[I]  White House Predicts Deregulation Will Boost Household Incomes

[I]  Canadian Business Sentiment Improves

[I]  U.S. Consumer Dropped in June

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Small savings schemes will fetch lower returns

[I]  Boost to local manufacturing, structural change to farm sector top Budget wishlist

[I]  Monsoon reaches Mumbai

[I]  Re-activate NBFCs to re-boot the economy

[I]  Bankers hope for clear roadmap on mergers, NBFC, infra issues

[I]  Agriculture sector may be due for a policy revamp, say experts

[I]  Fiscal deficit reaches 52% of the full-year mark in first 2 months

[I]  ‘Low’ may intensify into depression; more rains likely next week: IMD

[I]  Total sown acreage down by 10 per cent till date

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserve hits record high of $426.42 billion

[I]  Euro set for biggest monthly drop in 17 months before price data

[I]  NBFC woes send bond premiums to highest since 2013

[I]  Large corporates are going back to banks for funds

[I]  Better prices for farmers: Online warehouse-based trading soon

[I]  India, Japan discuss strengthening collaboration in skill development

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Impact of Sebi's norms for debt MFs: Companies may shift funds to banks

[I]  India's current account deficit narrows sharply to 0.7% of GDP in Q4

[I]  Trade dispute to defence: Modi, Trump have talks agenda set at G20 meeting

[I]  NBFCs may shed competitive edge as SEBI tightens rules to raise capital

[I]  India's external debt rises 2.6% to $543 billion at March-end

[I]  Sowing of kharif crops down from last year but revival likely soon

[I]  Retail loan growth slows to 17% in May, reflects slowdown in economy

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

29 Jun 2019

“WALK BESIDE ME” IS WHAT PEOPLE AROUND US WANTS. WISHING A CONCERTING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Jun 2019

 

Despite NBFC crisis financial system stable; NPAs fall to 9.3% in FY19. India's finance ministry has demanded the social security and pension fund cuts the 8.65 percent annual return it was planning to offer about 85 million member workers. India's monsoon rains were below average for the fourth straight week, with rainfall scanty over central and western parts of the country in the week, raising concerns about major crop production and the impact on the nation's economy. The pace of U.S. economic growth remained at a strong 3.1% annual rate in the first three months of the year, but a downward revision to consumer spending suggests the momentum could be difficult to maintain. More American renters believe homeownership is financially out of reach, according to a new survey that shines fresh light on the growing housing affordability crisis.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Putin says liberalism has ‘become obsolete’

[I]  Private equity races to spend record $2.5tn cash pile

[I]  Macron and Merkel take EU top jobs puzzle to Japan

[I]  Trump and Xi’s side meeting set to overshadow G20 summit

[I]  European nations ready to launch Iran payments channel

[I]  Japan overhauls M&A rules in corporate governance push

[I]  Investors are too complacent about negative yields

[I]  Japan Inc should hold firm against short-term investor pressure

 

REUTERS

[I]  Prospect of weak monsoon raises fears for economy

[I]  Trump says he will talk about trade with Indian PM Modi

[I]  Trump demands withdrawal of India's 'unacceptable' tariff hike

[I]  SEBI tightens rules for pledged shares, mutual funds

[I]  Germany-Iran trade collapses under U.S. sanctions: report

[I]  EU leaders warn of damage to global growth from trade war

[I]  Finance ministry seeks state fund payout cut amid fears about lending crunch

[I]  Japan PM Abe, China's Xi agree on need for 'free, fair' trade

[I]  U.S. economic growth surges in first quarter, but momentum fizzling

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Yuan Slide to Weakest Since 2008 at Stake in Xi-Trump Meeting

[I]  Mortgage Rate Dips Again, Pointing to a Rise in Refinancing Risk

[I]  Safe-Haven Assets Needed. They Don't Even Need to Be That Safe.

[I]  Weakening Thai Economy Suggests Trouble for Asia’s Top Assets

[I]  U.K. June Consumer Confidence Drops as GfK Sees Turbulent Summer

[I]  Investors Pump Cash Into Junk Bond Funds as Issuance Spikes

[I]  Money-Market Funds Contemplate a Return to Abyss of Low Rates

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Pelosi Calls for Surgical Changes to Trump Trade Pact

[I]  China to Insist U.S. Lift Huawei Ban as Part of Trade Deal

[I]  When It Comes to Tariffs, Many U.S. Companies Are on China’s Side

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week

[I]  Fewer Renters Believe They Are Likely to Ever Own a Home

[I]  U.S. Economy Grew at Unrevised 3.1% Rate in First Quarter

[I]  Here’s What Might Cause a Recession

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI tightens norms for MFs, bans standstill pacts

[I]  When the pie is large but a few slice it up

[I]  India’s financial systems are stable, asserts RBI

[I]  Needed, more money in the hands of people

[I]  Govt measures essential to boost manufacturing, bolster disposable incomes

[I]  Royalty payment in excess of 5% requires shareholder nod: SEBI

[I]  Govt asks PSBs to step up MSME credit availability

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Trump drags dollar to centre stage at G-20

[I]  Govt may tighten disclosure norms for CSR spending

[I]  US and Australia question India’s new farm sector support scheme

[I]  CRAR may fall below 9% for 5 banks sans fresh government capital, says RBI

[I]  Despite NBFC crisis financial system stable; NPAs fall to 9.3% in FY19: RBI report

[I]  Trump demands withdrawal of India's 'unacceptable' tariff hike

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Failure of large HFCs similar to bank collapse, says RBI report

[I]  Ease of doing business policy to explore scrapping of licence raj

[I]  Fixed maturity plans of mutual funds face risk of concentration: RBI report

[I]  Consumer loans may be the next big headache for NBFCs: RBI report

[I]  Asset quality in banking sector may improve in 2020, show RBI stress tests

[I]  Over half the SME universe in the red: Here're the top losers since 2012

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11918;  USDINR DGCX: 69.3300;  DJIA Mini: 26579;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7340;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21220;  EUR-USD: 1.1366; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.33;  Gold (Spot): 1422

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

28 Jun 2019

WISDOM AND EXPERIENCE ARE OXYMORON; LIFE EXISTS BETWEEN THEM. WISHING AN AMUSING  DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 27 Jun 2019

 

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sought to reduce heightened trade tension with India, promising a renewed focus on negotiating better ties, but giving few specifics of how they would overcome their disputes over trade and investment. Coal imports by Indian utilities are surging. China, India, the European Union, Ukraine and Australia told the WTO that U.S. farm subsidies risked distorting global markets. Orders for long-lasting American goods dropped in May, reflecting weakness extending beyond Boeing’s grounded air jet. The U.S. just hit the 10-year mark of nonstop economic growth. In July, the economy will have grown for longer than any stretch in its history.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump attacks EU action against US tech groups

[I]  China defies US sanctions by tapping Iran oil supplies

[I]  Investment in central London offices drops 37%

[I]  Foreign investment into UK falls to six-year low

[I]  US and North Korea in talks over another Trump-Kim summit

[I]  India offers test case for future of mobile money

[I]  Carney calls for change to investment regulation

 

REUTERS

[I]  Pompeo vows cooperation with India but trade, defence issues unresolved

[I]  RBI says foreign firms can process abroad, but must store data in India

[I]  Trump says trade deal 'possible' with China's Xi, tariffs could be lower

[I]  China's funding for small firms still not improved: auditor

[I]  Slow reforms spurring higher coal imports by Indian utilities

[I]  India's May steel exports drop to lowest in three years

[I]  WTO members concerned over U.S. farm spending, EU's Brexit plans

[I]  Record number of women candidates is changing dynamics of 2020 U.S. presidential race

[I]  UK's Hunt has costly tax and spending plans - think tank

[I]  Pakistan rupee reaches record low, sliding more than 3% slide in a day

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Asia Investors Dive Into Stocks Pushing Volumes Toward Record

[I]  One by One, Yen Is Breaking Down Barriers Toward 100 Threshold

[I]  The Chinese Are Having a Go in a Market Where U.S. Cars Flopped

[I]  Philippines Casino to Double Capacity as Tourism Climbs

[I]  Hong Kong Pension System Charges Premiums for Cheap Index Funds

[I]  China's Economy Slows Further as Trump and Xi Get Set to Meet in Japan

[I]  Slumping Bond Sales Indicate Waning Trust in India Shadow Banks

[I]  Riskier Leveraged Loans Are Starting to Crop Up in Asia Markets

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Hopes for Resolving U.S.-China Trade Fight Hinge on Trump and Xi

[I]  Boeing Just One Factor Behind Drop in Durable-Goods Orders

[I]  Trump Slams Fed’s Powell, Saying ‘We Should Have Draghi Instead’

[I]  St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Said He Was Contacted by White House for Fed Board Job

[I]  Fed’s Barkin Takes Wait-and-See Approach to Rate Setting

[I]  Here’s What Might Cause a Recession

[I]  Democrats and Affluent Suburbs Join to Fight Tax-Break Cap

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  US ready to iron out trade row with India in a ‘friendly spirit’: Pompeo

[I]  Staff costs soar for IT majors with surge in US hiring

[I]  Taxman can share data on assets of loan defaulters with PSBs, says CBDT

[I]  Tax sops for job creation, greater push towards skilling the need of the hour

[I]  Race to recruit a company secretary gets intense

[I]  Labour reforms, incentives vital to create quality jobs

[I]  Monsoon late, but macro environment positive

[I]  FBAs should have Rs. 1-cr net worth and be incorporated in India, mandates RBI

[I]  Coins of various denominations continue to be legal tender

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Tougher norms for audit firms on the anvil

[I]  The risky game many investors are playing

[I]  Urgent need to make trade finance popular: CII

[I]  Telecom sector set to turn net hirer in FY20

[I]  RBI issues norms for interest rate derivatives, limits retail use

[I]  Govt removes restrictions on import of pea seeds

[I]  US wants India to embrace fair and reciprocal trade, lower barriers

[I]  G20 nations imposed 20 new trade-restrictive measures in last 8 months: WTO

[I]  Soon, GST taxpayers will get 'risk scores'

[I]  Government to revamp procedure for tax assessment

[I]  Tax on capital gains may continue this year, rise from 10% unlikely

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  American investments worth trillions waiting for India, says Pompeo

[I]  At 48.3% in 2018, corporate taxes in India among highest in the world

[I]  Lack of skilled labour make Indian SMEs deploy robots on factory floors

[I]  PE inflows into realty up 26% to Rs 28,000 crore in first half of 2019

[I]  Promoters can take part in liquidation process if lenders okay IBC exit

[I]  Direct tax code panel to curb tax lawsuits, modify faceless scrutiny

[I]  RBI panel report suggests big role for NBFCs in developing MSME sector

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11882;  USDINR DGCX: 69.5950;  DJIA Mini: 26609;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7359;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21240;  EUR-USD: 1.1362; Crude Oil (WTI): 59.22;  Gold (Spot): 1408

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
27 Jun 2019